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Simeon Borisof

Bulgaria "A" PFG > 2017/18

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Vitosha  - Cherno More
Bulgaria

1x double chance   2.80  Betfair sportsbook


Cherno More don't care about this match. They will be without 7 first team players (some of them are injured, some are suspended and some will get a rest. The odds will change for sure.

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Bulgaria
Levski – Botev Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv  X2 @Bet365  6/5 (2.20 in decimal odds)

Levski will play cup final vs. Slavia in a few days. That’s why today they are going to play with many reserves. 7 first team players are not in the group for the match. 5 out of them are given rest by the coach – Prochazka, Jablonsky, Gomez, Nascimiento, Thiam. Sergiu Bus is suspended and Cvetković is injured. Jablonsky is the top goal scorer of the team and Sergiu Bus is the third top scorer.
Just a month ago Botev won against Levski. Moreover Botev was with 10 players in this match (red card in 41 minute).
Clearly there is a value in these odds. I guess most people just don’t know yet that Levski will play with many reserves. Tonight the starting odds before the game should be very different.

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The new season started last week, but I suppose we can use this thread to post our thoughts about the upcoming games. I have one game in mind, which will be played on Sunday:

Vitosha Bistritsa - CSKA Sofia

Both teams to score: NO,
Odds: 1.72@bet365

CSKA has started very well the season with a convincing 2-0 victory against Lokomotiv Plovdiv last week. They have a new coach who has said from the beginning that he prefers solid defense and would rather win five games with 1-0, than one with 5-0. So far CSKA has played 4 official games - two victories in Europa league (against Riga at home 1-0, and against Admira Wacker at home 3-0) and lost the following game against Riga 1-0 (after a silly goalkeeper's mistake, but managed to win after penalties and to proceed in the 2nd qualifying round), and the already mentioned 2-0 victory against Lokomotiv.

They are looking very good at the back and a big plus would be the return of Bodurov (captain, CB) who was suspended yesterday against Admira. They have no fresh injury concerns.

Vitosha were the punching bag last season and only thanks to the pathetic championship rules they managed to survive, even though they finished last with just ONE victory throughout the whole season. This year they've strengthened a bit and even managed to get the 3 points in the first round against Dunav. For the game against CSKA, however, they will be without 2 suspended players. They usually play their "home" games against the bigger teams in the national stadium in Sofia, so you can be sure that the "home factor" won't exist because A) Vitosha practically has no actual fans, apart from the relatives of the footballers, and B) because CSKA will have much more fans on the stands.

I expect an easy victory for CSKA, but the odds are terrible. However, given how solid they are in defense right now, I find the odds for BTTS:NO to be very, very generous.

Regarding the other games, I'll just share my thoughts but won't go into too much details as I am not yet prepared to cover a whole round:

Friday: 
Etar - Vereya - home win, but the odds are not impressive
Dunav - Botev Vratsa - under 2.5 goals. It's been raining in the region and Dunav's stadium is terrible. Both teams started with defeats (both going over 2.5 btw) and will be cautious. Botev are newcomers, but the difference between the two sides is not that great.

Saturday:
Septemvri - Botev Plovdiv - no bet for me...this game could go either way easily.
Beroe - ludogorets - the visitors have a crucial game on wednesday against MOL Vidi in the Champions League, but would most likely win here too. However, the odds are rather short imo.

Sunday:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Slavia - home win looks good. Slavia had a tough game against Hajduk yesterday in the Europa League and even though they lost 1-0, they still stand a chance, so I suppose that's where their minds will be. Plus, their squad is not that wide, so there could definitely be some fatigue. Lokomotiv were nothing special against CSKA, but are pretty solid at home, so I'd fancy them to win this one.
Vitosha - CSKA - I've shared my view already.

Monday:
Levski - Cherno more - another no bet. Levski are in shambles and were lucky to win in the first round. Their new manager is supposed to take over after this game. Cherno more are usually poor on their travels, so a home win could be on the cards, but if I had bet my money on something, it would be on under 2.5 goals.

Good luck all!

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On 7/27/2018 at 3:50 PM, mtom said:

Vitosha Bistritsa - CSKA Sofia

Both teams to score: NO,
Odds: 1.72@bet365

Final score 2:0 for CSKA Sofia. Bet won.

As expected CSKA won rather easily after two early first half goals, but Vitosha had a couple of good chances to score later on. Thankfully they didn't.

As for the rest of the games - thank God I didn't put any money on. It was a surprising weekend with Ludogorets dropping points, Slavia winning away from home and Dunav trashing Botev Vratsa.

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Friday: 2045 EET
Vereya - Beroe

Beroe to win -1.0,-1.5AH
Odds: 1.87@bet365
Stake: 3/10

The third round of the Bulgarian A league starts today and the second game in the program is a local derby of sorts. Both teams are located in Stara Zagora, however Vereya is nowhere near of being as supported as Beroe is in the city. As a matter of fact the home team is one of the main contenders for relegation this season. Last year they surprised a lot of people and managed to finish in the top 6, but every year at some point they start to experience financial difficulties and even though they somehow always find a way to solve their problems, this year I expect them to struggle. They started the season with a draw, then lost their last game against another relatively weak team - Etar. Tonight they will be without some experienced players such as Malamov and Mechev.
Beroe are traditionally tough team and even though they are also without a win so far (two draws against difficult opponents in the face of Slavia and ludogorets) the team should soon find their rhythm and get to the winning ways. They made some good signings over the summer and for tonight the manager could rely on a fully fit squad.

Fan wise, even though Vereya is the home team tonight, they practically have no fans, so Beroe would certainly feel like home. I expect the better team to win, and I hope they can do it by at least two goals margin.

Good luck!

I'll try to share my thoughts for the rest of the round later on tonight or tomorrow, but so far this seems to be the only bet for me.

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Monday: 20:30 EET
Slavia - Vitosha

Both teams to score: Yes
Odds: 2.10@bet365
Stake: 1/10

Just a little try here, because I think the odds are worth a punt. Slavia's European journey came to an end last Thursday with a defeat against Haiduk Split, but they were pretty solid overall and exceeded the expectations. In the league the team started also brightly with a draw against Beroe and an away victory against Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Experienced GK Petkov and the young prospect Hristov are doubtful for tonight.

On the other hand Vitosha, the bunching bag last season, seems to have improved a bit and even though they lost their game against CSKA in the previous round, they actually showed some progress and were in fact unlucky not to score. Two players are back after suspension.

Overall Slavia is the clear favorite, but I have the feeling Vitosha could turn out to be a stubborn opponent and both teams should be capable of scoring. Low stakes.

Good luck! 

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11 hours ago, mtom said:

Monday: 20:30 EET
Slavia - Vitosha

Both teams to score: Yes
Odds: 2.10@bet365
Stake: 1/10

Final score - 0:2
Bet lost

Quite the surprise here. But the truth is Slavia were very poor today and Vitosha deserved to win.

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Friday: 21:00 EET
Cherno More - Vitosha

Both teams to score: Yes
Odds: 2.62@bet365
Stake: 2/10

Simply based on odds. They are too high IMO. Vitosha obviously have improved significantly compared to last season and this year they already recorded 3 wins, whilst losing 3 too. Their away form is very interesting - 2 wins out of 2, not conceding in the process, neither.

Tonight I am going against that record. Cherno More have stabilized after the humiliating 5-1 defeat against Septemvri a couple of weeks ago and are undefeated in 3 consecutive games (drawing twice and winning in the last round away from home against a solid Lokomotiv Plovdiv side).

In previous years the hosts relied heavily on home form and this needs improving (they are 1-1-1 at home right now) and even though I suppose they will win tonight, it won't be easy. Cherno more have kept only one clean sheet in 6 games and with those generous odds for BTTS I just have to go for it.

Good luck.

As for the other games, no particular bets, just some thoughts:
Friday:
Vereya - Slavia - the value for me is on +1AH on the home side. Yes, they are the punching bag this season, but Slavia is slowly starting to lose the momentum they had at the beginning of the season. A low scoring affair and a draw won't surprise me.

Saturday:
Septemvri - Etar  - home win. Etar's away form is woeful and even though Septemvri are going through tough period too, should be able to win.

Botev - CSKA - it would be a tough game for the visitors and even though I think they will win, the odds are low. But over 2.5 goals is worth a shot.

Botev Vratsa - Lokomotiv - this game could easily go either way. I'd avoid it altogether

Levski - Beroe - Levski are unbeaten and since their managerial change they've improved. Beroe are a tough team to break, but the hosts should win. Under 2.5 goals is also a good option.

Sunday:
Ludogorets - Dunav - clear home win. Dunav are Ludogorets' puppets, so no problems for the hosts. And even if the game was to be played fairly, Dunav are really, really weak anyway. I expect a convincing home win.

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On 8/31/2018 at 10:58 AM, mtom said:

Friday: 21:00 EET
Cherno More - Vitosha

Both teams to score: Yes
Odds: 2.62@bet365
Stake: 2/10

1-0 FT, bet lost. As I said the odds were too good to miss, but unfortunately Vitosha couldn't find the net. After the early goal from the hosts, I was expecting a bit more, but it turned out to be a dull affair.

As for the other games, no real surprises. Perhaps only the 0-0 draw between Botev and CSKA, but usually Botev are a tough nut to crack at home and that was proven once again. Septemvri losing at home was a shocker too, it seems they are in a mini crisis right now.

A couple of loses in a row in this thread. Hopefully I'd start picking better games sooner.

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The international break is over (thank God), so here are a couple of bets from me:

Friday: 20:00 EET
Ludogorets - Vereya

Both teams to score: No
Odds: 1.66@bet365
Stake: 3/10

Posting this now, because I think the odds won't last until tomorrow afternoon. No need for a deep analysis - ludogorets, even though not as convincing as last season, are still a top team for the Bulgarian A league. On the other hand Vereya are the punching bag. They fired their manager (who took charge just a couple of weeks ago) because, apparently, he was separating the international players from the bulgarians and preferred to field mainly foreigners. This led to some disruptions between the players and the management decided to sack him before things got out of hand. But in reality Vereya are simply awful. Unfortunately, thanks to the idiotic structure of the league, they could lose all their games for the season and still remain in the league (no kidding!).
So I simply cant imagine ludogorets conceding at home. They would probably win by 3, 4 goals margin. 

Saturday: 20:00 EET
CSKA Sofia - Cherno more

CSKA to win -1 European Handicap (or -1.5 AH)
Odds: 1.95@bet365
stake: 2/10

CSKA needs to get back to the winning ways as soon as possible and this weekend they would have the ideal opportunity. Most of their players were involved in their respective national teams which on the one hand means they didn't get much rest, but on the other hand means they are in good form and the manager could rely on them. Most of the injury problems for CSKA are over, with only LB Gefferson being out. They got a new striker during the international break and I suppose we could see him in action at some point during the game.
Cherno more are a tough nut to crack, especially under their current manager, who loves defensive football. They would try to stay behind the ball as much as possible and will try to get lucky on the counter attack.

This might as well be a very difficult game, but if CSKA scores an early opener then I can see the home team winning comfortably.

As for the other games - Botev Vratsa could get something out of Vitosha on Friday, so the DNB option @2 in bet365 seems like a reasonable bet.
Dunav's odds at home against Etar on saturday @2.50 are also worth trying. 
And certainly the most interesting game would be Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Levski on sunday, where the visitors are favorites but I think we could see an upset there. I'd advice a no bet or playing on under 2.5 goals.
Beroe should also win easily against Septemvri but the odds are too low.

Good luck!

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On 9/13/2018 at 3:17 PM, mtom said:

Friday: 20:00 EET
Ludogorets - Vereya

Both teams to score: No
Odds: 1.66@bet365
Stake: 3/10

Final result: 2:1 - bet lost. Fun fact - that was the first goal Vereya scored in 1237 minutes (yep 1237 minutes of play without a goal, right until i tipped them not to score :lol). The last time they found the net was in April during the previous championship. And we saw a typical "surprising" win of ludogorets after losing 1-0 at half time. But I guess their owner has to get some cash after missing out on CL money. 

Saturday: 20:00 EET
CSKA Sofia - Cherno more

CSKA to win -1 European Handicap (or -1.5 AH)
Odds: 1.95@bet365
stake: 2/10

Final result: 3-1 - bet won. Even though CSKA won comfortably, it wasn't as easy as expect. Bet won though.

 

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Bulgaria

15/12/18 - 14:00 (CET)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Botev Vratsa

Tip: 1 

Odds: 1.66 @ Bet365

Very huge stakes put on home win in Bulgaria, it is very suspicious and one more important thing is that today ref is very popular for making scandal decisions.

I'm gonna also try here with handicap (-1.50) home to win with 2 goals difference on small stake, odds 3.00.

 

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9 hours ago, balkan-pro said:

Bulgaria

15/12/18 - 14:00 (CET)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Botev Vratsa

Tip: 1 

Odds: 1.66 @ Bet365

Very huge stakes put on home win in Bulgaria, it is very suspicious and one more important thing is that today ref is very popular for making scandal decisions.

I'm gonna also try here with handicap (-1.50) home to win with 2 goals difference on small stake, odds 3.00.

 

FT: 4:0

Easy win on both picks.

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