Jump to content
Announcements
*** Punchestown Festival Competition: Well done to 1st. Craig Bluenose, 2nd. Lee Grays & 3rd. Carole Dawney ***
** April Poker League Result : 1st kevsul, 2nd Rob Valk, 3rd McG **
** Last Man Standing Results - glavintoby & Redno2009 both win £125 **
** April Naps Competition Result: 1st Sugardaddyken, 2nd TRAINMAD091, 3rd Harry Faint99, 4th Gary66. KO Cup Winner Waggy, Most Winners: Xtc12 **

Recommended Posts

My local team is Weymouth and I go to 80-90% of home games.  The Southern Prem is weak this year although obviously Basingstoke going full-time is an interesting development.  Weymouth just missed out on the playoffs last season, and have kept the bulk of the team that did well last year together.  This will be our strength and I expect us to hit the ground running - so look out for early value in the match betting against sides that are perhaps rebuilding.

We had one of the best defences in the league last season, and that back 5 is still together.  Unfortunately we have lost all cover for our centre backs - so keep an eye out for injuries to Brooks or Wannell - if cover is not brought in soon we could suffer if either of those are suspended/injured.  Our downfall last season was an inability to convert possession into goals.  We have signed Sam Jordan who has scored goals for fun at Bradford Town, but this is a big step up for him.  We have kept Ben Thomson and Stewart Yetton as our other two strikers.  One of those 3 needs to start banging in some goals.

Our midfield remains a strength, and the addition of Charlie Davis from Dorchester looks to be a good one - he has shone in pre-season.  We've also added Dan Smith and Aaron Rodriguez.

Current best price of 20/1 with Skybet looks to have some value - I would put us closer to 12s.  Here's to a good season!

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, wittonalbion said:

My local team is Weymouth and I go to 80-90% of home games.  The Southern Prem is weak this year although obviously Basingstoke going full-time is an interesting development.  Weymouth just missed out on the playoffs last season, and have kept the bulk of the team that did well last year together.  This will be our strength and I expect us to hit the ground running - so look out for early value in the match betting against sides that are perhaps rebuilding.

We had one of the best defences in the league last season, and that back 5 is still together.  Unfortunately we have lost all cover for our centre backs - so keep an eye out for injuries to Brooks or Wannell - if cover is not brought in soon we could suffer if either of those are suspended/injured.  Our downfall last season was an inability to convert possession into goals.  We have signed Sam Jordan who has scored goals for fun at Bradford Town, but this is a big step up for him.  We have kept Ben Thomson and Stewart Yetton as our other two strikers.  One of those 3 needs to start banging in some goals.

Our midfield remains a strength, and the addition of Charlie Davis from Dorchester looks to be a good one - he has shone in pre-season.  We've also added Dan Smith and Aaron Rodriguez.

Current best price of 20/1 with Skybet looks to have some value - I would put us closer to 12s.  Here's to a good season!

 

 

 

 

Good info that and hope you will continue to share during the season.

Link to post
Share on other sites

National League 

Usually I have a team in mind who I want to back to win the National League around April, but this year has been different and it hasn’t been until recently where I have made my mind about who I want to back. The main reason for that is I think it looks a very competitive division this year and if any one of about half a dozen sides won the league it wouldn’t surprise me. 
Tranmere came down with Cheltenham and I am hoping they can do what Cheltenham did last season and win the National League title. I suspected Gray Brabin’s side would need a season at this level to find their feet and although I am sure their fans were disappointed not to reach the play-offs, I think they had a solid enough season to finish just two points shy of the top 5. In my view that has built a solid foundation to build on this time around. They only lost 3 games away from home all season which was the lowest in the division, but the problem was at home where they lost 9 and just 7 teams lost more. That could be down to the fact players felt more pressure in front of their demanding home fans. Hopefully this season that won’t be so much of a factor and crucially for me their side looks stronger. I especially like their set of strikers as the trio of Andy Cook, James Norwood and Connor Jennings looks the strongest in the division in my view and they could do with scoring a few more goals than they did last season as only 3 teams scored fewer in the top half. Clearly Gary Brabin saw this as a weak point and has acted accordingly. I would be amazed if they didn’t improve on last season and they look a solid e/w bet at 7/1 (Coral and SkyBet). 

Forest Green Rovers are favourites with only Boylesports going as big as 4/1 and they have been backed in from Betway’s opening 6/1 quote. They should finish in the play-offs again, but they look shocking value at their current odds. I think getting a manager who knows this level was a good move and it is interesting that Mark Cooper seems to have gone down the route of getting younger players in like Ethan Pinnock from Dulwich. It will be interesting to see how Rhys Murphy gets on down at this level, but he has only scored 34 goals in 125 games so you wonder if he is going to be someone who goes and gets 20 goals in a season. Matt Tubbs has also arrived from Portsmouth via Eastleigh. He obviously had a superb scoring record at this level for Salisbury and Crawley, but he only got 2 in 16 for Eastleigh last season and that worries me. Maybe there were other reasons behind it, but I am sure Eastleigh would have gone for him if they thought he was still up to scoring 20+ goals a season. I think Cooper has taken a few gambles and he hasn’t always been that impressed with his team’s efforts in pre-season. Those gambles might well pay off, but I am more than happy to oppose them at the prices. 

Eastleigh are next in the betting after the above two and they were very costly to me last year given how strongly I backed them. I am loathed to blame the FA Cup run because I don’t think in got in the way all that much. They just weren’t good enough at the back and failed to score enough at the other end. Now initially I wasn’t going to back them this time around as I was a bit worried they still looked light weight up front. I am not someone who reads that much into pre-season form, but when you take a look at how many goals Eastleigh have scored in pre-season it does make you sit up and take notice. They scored 25 in 8 games and most of the opposition was of a decent standard. Constable got 15 goals last season and they need someone to come in and match that at least and they may well have found him in Mikael Mandron who Chris Todd was raving about after he scored twice against Northampton on Saturday. They look to have a stronger squad than last season and if they can carry on scoring the goals when the season starts then they should get a top 3 place at the very least. Paddy Power are best about them at 17/2. 

Dagenham & Redbridge have been the other side for money over the summer and I can understand why some people would want to take a chance at double figure odds. John Still knows non-league inside out and getting the manager right is crucial at this level. He has brought some interesting looking players in and if they click then they should be in for a good season. There are some of the field issues though which might end up seeing more money injected in the club, but until they are sorted I don’t fancy them at the current price. It is even harder to fancy the other relegated side, York, who look like this will be more a rebuilding season than one of attempting to gain promotion. 

Wrexham played some nice football last season and they put in one of the best performances I saw when they beat Cheltenham on BT Sport. The problem was consistency and I am not sure Gary Mills has actually managed to improve last season’s squad. They could easily miss out on the play-offs again. 

It will be interesting to see how the Cowley brothers get on at Lincoln given how well they did at Braintree last season. They need to find a fair bit of improvement to win the title though and I think they will be happy with a top 10 finish this season before looking at a proper promotion bid the season after. They might be a team to back when the season gets going though if they are going well. 

Dover have lost some key players, although to be fair they have kept some as well so they should still be capable of doing well, but I would be very surprised if they matched last season’s exploits. Barrow were one team I was considering backing at one stage. They have a manager who has won the league before and they finished the season pretty strongly last term. Getting Ross Hannah from Chester looks a decent signing, but on the other-hand they have lost Cook to Tranmere and you can’t help but think Cook must have felt that Tranmere have a better chance of gaining promotion. At this stage I will leave them alone, but they are ones to keep an eye on. 

One team that might go well at big odds are Gateshead. They have signed a lot of players in the close season and they look to be giving promotion a good go this time around. Given they changed manager during the season they didn’t do too badly to finish 10th and a better squad this time around can hopefully give them better consistency. I was tempted by the 20/1 but at the same time they look more a team who might sneak into the play-offs rather than actually win the league. 

At the other end North Ferriby are likely to find things very tough, but then they are priced up accordingly to go down. I think the other three promoted teams, Solihull, Sutton and Maidstone all have good chances of surviving though, indeed at least one might even sneak into the top half. Guiseley just survived last season and are likely to be in another relegation battle this time around. There are two teams I think are worth backing. The first is Bromley at 3/1 with BetVictor. They were very strong in the first half of last season, but then could barely pick up a point even under the new manager. I think they are going to find things very tough this time around. 

The second bet is a team I backed to go down last season, Braintree. Obviously I couldn’t have been more wrong as they finished 3rd in the end, but they have lost the vast majority of last season’s team. It is surprising that Simeon Akinola is still there given the interest he has had from Football League clubs and I would be amazed if someone doesn’t buy him at some point. Jamie Day isn’t a bad manager by any means, but he is having to restart again on one of the smallest budgets in the division and to me they look a spot of value at 6/1 to end up in the bottom 4 at the end of the season. 

National League North 

This looks a very tough league to try and sort out this season with some big teams in the division as well as big spending ones as well. Halifax have been backed into favouritism probably on the back of a good pre season. New manager Billy Heath will be trying to gain promotion from the division for the 2nd year running after winning the play-offs with North Ferriby last season. They should be in contention, but in a league where so many teams have a chance they look poor value at 9/2. The other two relegated sides are both 14/1 and Kidderminster make more appeal, but at the same time not enough to make me want to back them. The two promoted sides, Darlington and Salford, should be capable of doing well and the latter not surprisingly have cash to spend. You have to think Stockport will get back up at some point although not sure it will be this season. Nuneaton, Harrogate and Boston will no doubt be competitive again and Alfreton and AFC Telford can do better than they did last term. 

That is 11 teams I have mentioned and that shows you how much strength and depth there is in the division and I haven’t mentioned the two I am putting up. For the 3rd year running I am putting up AFC Fylde. They have gone full time this season and are just about to move to a brand new stadium. Yes winning the title this season will be harder than the last two, but given they have gone close the last twice the move to full time should see the improvement needed to see them land the title. bet365 are a top price of 13/2. At a bigger price Tamworth interest me. They had a solid season last term and I think they can build on that this time around. They now have a 3g pitch and I think that could be an advantage especially if the winter brings lots of postponements. Loius Briscoe looks a good signing and at 16/1 they are worth an e/w bet. 

National League South 

Ebbsfleet cost favourite backers for the 2nd year running as they blew a massive lead to lost out to Sutton. They then blew the play-off final as well so that means they are short price favourites for the 3rd year running. They are running at a reduced budget this term, but I suspect it will still be the biggest in the division. They might finally land the title, but they are no value and there are 3 teams who look good e/w value against them. 

First up is Whitehawk who somehow made the play-offs last season despite looking to have no chance at half way. They have some real quality in their squad and I don’t think they should be as big as 9/1 (bet365). Chelmsford have just had a takeover approved and that will mean an increased budget which will see them much more competitive than they have been in recent seasons. They have a manager in Rod Stringer who has won the league before and at BetVictor’s 12/1 they look a fair Each Way price. 

The final bet is Margate. Now that might seem odd on the face of it as not only have they had a massive budget reduction, but they only just survived last season. That doesn’t tell the whole story though. When Nikki Bull took over as manager during last season the team’s results improved massively and they had an outside shot of the play-offs. When things went wrong off the field though things also went wrong on it. Bull announced he was leaving at the end of the season and the players knowing the same just seemed to give up and opposing them became a money making system. The new owners then persuaded Bull to stay and he managed to get his squad to perform well enough to just stay up. I have been very impressed with the squad that Bull has put together and he showed he can manage with the way the team improved when he took over last season. I actually think having less money to spend will help them and Bull can clearly get players playing for him. Betway went 50/1 and I was hoping that was going to stay, but clearly others have seen what I have seen as they are now into 33s. I still rate that a big price though and they have a much better squad than that price suggests. 

Ryman Premier 

Only bet365 and SkyBet have priced Step 3 up this year. I really like Dulwich Hamlet again for this division. They are my local team so I see them a fair bit and they should be a National League South side by now. They massively under performed in the play-off final in May, but manager Gavin Rose has recruited well and getting Danny Carr back in can only be a good thing for both player and club. When I started watching them they were getting around 300 people turn up, but now they regularly get crowds of over 1000 and on occasions get over 2000. That is a big support at this level and is a big advantage. They look a solid e/w play at 7/1 with bet365. 

I am amazed Lee Bradbury is still in a job at Havant as they were awful on a big budget last season and deserved to go down. I do think they are worth backing at 4/1 with SkyBet though because they have recruited very well and look to have a very good squad for this level and if they gel for the manager then that price is a fair one. 

I am also having a small e/w play on Merstham at 28/1 (SkyBet). They seem to spending a bit of cash and have recruited well over the summer. They could certainly outperform those big odds. 

Evo-Stik Premier 

I put Spennymoor up on Twitter last week as when bet365 went up with the prices they looked over priced at 12s and I didn’t think the price would last. They had been 16s on the first show and are now only half those odds, but they still look a good bet. They may only have come up last season, but they have shown plenty of intent on going straight up again and have signed some very good players. They should go close. I also think Blyth Spartans are worth having on side. They went close last year before losing out to Darlington and I would be amazed if they didn’t go close yet again with the side they have. bet365 have them at 13/2. 

Southern Premier 

Not a league I have a strong view about. Basingstoke are favourites and should go well although they don’t look great value. Kettering look a team set to build on a solid season last time around and they look worth backing at 8/1. It is also hard not to see Leamington finishing there or thereabouts again and a 12/1 quote about them looks a tad big. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, addpea said:

National League 

Usually I have a team in mind who I want to back to win the National League around April, but this year has been different and it hasn’t been until recently where I have made my mind about who I want to back. The main reason for that is I think it looks a very competitive division this year and if any one of about half a dozen sides won the league it wouldn’t surprise me. 
Tranmere came down with Cheltenham and I am hoping they can do what Cheltenham did last season and win the National League title. I suspected Gray Brabin’s side would need a season at this level to find their feet and although I am sure their fans were disappointed not to reach the play-offs, I think they had a solid enough season to finish just two points shy of the top 5. In my view that has built a solid foundation to build on this time around. They only lost 3 games away from home all season which was the lowest in the division, but the problem was at home where they lost 9 and just 7 teams lost more. That could be down to the fact players felt more pressure in front of their demanding home fans. Hopefully this season that won’t be so much of a factor and crucially for me their side looks stronger. I especially like their set of strikers as the trio of Andy Cook, James Norwood and Connor Jennings looks the strongest in the division in my view and they could do with scoring a few more goals than they did last season as only 3 teams scored fewer in the top half. Clearly Gary Brabin saw this as a weak point and has acted accordingly. I would be amazed if they didn’t improve on last season and they look a solid e/w bet at 7/1 (Coral and SkyBet). 

Forest Green Rovers are favourites with only Boylesports going as big as 4/1 and they have been backed in from Betway’s opening 6/1 quote. They should finish in the play-offs again, but they look shocking value at their current odds. I think getting a manager who knows this level was a good move and it is interesting that Mark Cooper seems to have gone down the route of getting younger players in like Ethan Pinnock from Dulwich. It will be interesting to see how Rhys Murphy gets on down at this level, but he has only scored 34 goals in 125 games so you wonder if he is going to be someone who goes and gets 20 goals in a season. Matt Tubbs has also arrived from Portsmouth via Eastleigh. He obviously had a superb scoring record at this level for Salisbury and Crawley, but he only got 2 in 16 for Eastleigh last season and that worries me. Maybe there were other reasons behind it, but I am sure Eastleigh would have gone for him if they thought he was still up to scoring 20+ goals a season. I think Cooper has taken a few gambles and he hasn’t always been that impressed with his team’s efforts in pre-season. Those gambles might well pay off, but I am more than happy to oppose them at the prices. 

Eastleigh are next in the betting after the above two and they were very costly to me last year given how strongly I backed them. I am loathed to blame the FA Cup run because I don’t think in got in the way all that much. They just weren’t good enough at the back and failed to score enough at the other end. Now initially I wasn’t going to back them this time around as I was a bit worried they still looked light weight up front. I am not someone who reads that much into pre-season form, but when you take a look at how many goals Eastleigh have scored in pre-season it does make you sit up and take notice. They scored 25 in 8 games and most of the opposition was of a decent standard. Constable got 15 goals last season and they need someone to come in and match that at least and they may well have found him in Mikael Mandron who Chris Todd was raving about after he scored twice against Northampton on Saturday. They look to have a stronger squad than last season and if they can carry on scoring the goals when the season starts then they should get a top 3 place at the very least. Paddy Power are best about them at 17/2. 

Dagenham & Redbridge have been the other side for money over the summer and I can understand why some people would want to take a chance at double figure odds. John Still knows non-league inside out and getting the manager right is crucial at this level. He has brought some interesting looking players in and if they click then they should be in for a good season. There are some of the field issues though which might end up seeing more money injected in the club, but until they are sorted I don’t fancy them at the current price. It is even harder to fancy the other relegated side, York, who look like this will be more a rebuilding season than one of attempting to gain promotion. 

Wrexham played some nice football last season and they put in one of the best performances I saw when they beat Cheltenham on BT Sport. The problem was consistency and I am not sure Gary Mills has actually managed to improve last season’s squad. They could easily miss out on the play-offs again. 

It will be interesting to see how the Cowley brothers get on at Lincoln given how well they did at Braintree last season. They need to find a fair bit of improvement to win the title though and I think they will be happy with a top 10 finish this season before looking at a proper promotion bid the season after. They might be a team to back when the season gets going though if they are going well. 

Dover have lost some key players, although to be fair they have kept some as well so they should still be capable of doing well, but I would be very surprised if they matched last season’s exploits. Barrow were one team I was considering backing at one stage. They have a manager who has won the league before and they finished the season pretty strongly last term. Getting Ross Hannah from Chester looks a decent signing, but on the other-hand they have lost Cook to Tranmere and you can’t help but think Cook must have felt that Tranmere have a better chance of gaining promotion. At this stage I will leave them alone, but they are ones to keep an eye on. 

One team that might go well at big odds are Gateshead. They have signed a lot of players in the close season and they look to be giving promotion a good go this time around. Given they changed manager during the season they didn’t do too badly to finish 10th and a better squad this time around can hopefully give them better consistency. I was tempted by the 20/1 but at the same time they look more a team who might sneak into the play-offs rather than actually win the league. 

At the other end North Ferriby are likely to find things very tough, but then they are priced up accordingly to go down. I think the other three promoted teams, Solihull, Sutton and Maidstone all have good chances of surviving though, indeed at least one might even sneak into the top half. Guiseley just survived last season and are likely to be in another relegation battle this time around. There are two teams I think are worth backing. The first is Bromley at 3/1 with BetVictor. They were very strong in the first half of last season, but then could barely pick up a point even under the new manager. I think they are going to find things very tough this time around. 

The second bet is a team I backed to go down last season, Braintree. Obviously I couldn’t have been more wrong as they finished 3rd in the end, but they have lost the vast majority of last season’s team. It is surprising that Simeon Akinola is still there given the interest he has had from Football League clubs and I would be amazed if someone doesn’t buy him at some point. Jamie Day isn’t a bad manager by any means, but he is having to restart again on one of the smallest budgets in the division and to me they look a spot of value at 6/1 to end up in the bottom 4 at the end of the season. 

National League North 

This looks a very tough league to try and sort out this season with some big teams in the division as well as big spending ones as well. Halifax have been backed into favouritism probably on the back of a good pre season. New manager Billy Heath will be trying to gain promotion from the division for the 2nd year running after winning the play-offs with North Ferriby last season. They should be in contention, but in a league where so many teams have a chance they look poor value at 9/2. The other two relegated sides are both 14/1 and Kidderminster make more appeal, but at the same time not enough to make me want to back them. The two promoted sides, Darlington and Salford, should be capable of doing well and the latter not surprisingly have cash to spend. You have to think Stockport will get back up at some point although not sure it will be this season. Nuneaton, Harrogate and Boston will no doubt be competitive again and Alfreton and AFC Telford can do better than they did last term. 

That is 11 teams I have mentioned and that shows you how much strength and depth there is in the division and I haven’t mentioned the two I am putting up. For the 3rd year running I am putting up AFC Fylde. They have gone full time this season and are just about to move to a brand new stadium. Yes winning the title this season will be harder than the last two, but given they have gone close the last twice the move to full time should see the improvement needed to see them land the title. bet365 are a top price of 13/2. At a bigger price Tamworth interest me. They had a solid season last term and I think they can build on that this time around. They now have a 3g pitch and I think that could be an advantage especially if the winter brings lots of postponements. Loius Briscoe looks a good signing and at 16/1 they are worth an e/w bet. 

National League South 

Ebbsfleet cost favourite backers for the 2nd year running as they blew a massive lead to lost out to Sutton. They then blew the play-off final as well so that means they are short price favourites for the 3rd year running. They are running at a reduced budget this term, but I suspect it will still be the biggest in the division. They might finally land the title, but they are no value and there are 3 teams who look good e/w value against them. 

First up is Whitehawk who somehow made the play-offs last season despite looking to have no chance at half way. They have some real quality in their squad and I don’t think they should be as big as 9/1 (bet365). Chelmsford have just had a takeover approved and that will mean an increased budget which will see them much more competitive than they have been in recent seasons. They have a manager in Rod Stringer who has won the league before and at BetVictor’s 12/1 they look a fair Each Way price. 

The final bet is Margate. Now that might seem odd on the face of it as not only have they had a massive budget reduction, but they only just survived last season. That doesn’t tell the whole story though. When Nikki Bull took over as manager during last season the team’s results improved massively and they had an outside shot of the play-offs. When things went wrong off the field though things also went wrong on it. Bull announced he was leaving at the end of the season and the players knowing the same just seemed to give up and opposing them became a money making system. The new owners then persuaded Bull to stay and he managed to get his squad to perform well enough to just stay up. I have been very impressed with the squad that Bull has put together and he showed he can manage with the way the team improved when he took over last season. I actually think having less money to spend will help them and Bull can clearly get players playing for him. Betway went 50/1 and I was hoping that was going to stay, but clearly others have seen what I have seen as they are now into 33s. I still rate that a big price though and they have a much better squad than that price suggests. 

Ryman Premier 

Only bet365 and SkyBet have priced Step 3 up this year. I really like Dulwich Hamlet again for this division. They are my local team so I see them a fair bit and they should be a National League South side by now. They massively under performed in the play-off final in May, but manager Gavin Rose has recruited well and getting Danny Carr back in can only be a good thing for both player and club. When I started watching them they were getting around 300 people turn up, but now they regularly get crowds of over 1000 and on occasions get over 2000. That is a big support at this level and is a big advantage. They look a solid e/w play at 7/1 with bet365. 

I am amazed Lee Bradbury is still in a job at Havant as they were awful on a big budget last season and deserved to go down. I do think they are worth backing at 4/1 with SkyBet though because they have recruited very well and look to have a very good squad for this level and if they gel for the manager then that price is a fair one. 

I am also having a small e/w play on Merstham at 28/1 (SkyBet). They seem to spending a bit of cash and have recruited well over the summer. They could certainly outperform those big odds. 

Evo-Stik Premier 

I put Spennymoor up on Twitter last week as when bet365 went up with the prices they looked over priced at 12s and I didn’t think the price would last. They had been 16s on the first show and are now only half those odds, but they still look a good bet. They may only have come up last season, but they have shown plenty of intent on going straight up again and have signed some very good players. They should go close. I also think Blyth Spartans are worth having on side. They went close last year before losing out to Darlington and I would be amazed if they didn’t go close yet again with the side they have. bet365 have them at 13/2. 

Southern Premier 

Not a league I have a strong view about. Basingstoke are favourites and should go well although they don’t look great value. Kettering look a team set to build on a solid season last time around and they look worth backing at 8/1. It is also hard not to see Leamington finishing there or thereabouts again and a 12/1 quote about them looks a tad big. 

Thanks for these information.Hope you provide us with more information as the season kicks in.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have added another bet. Skybet are betting on who will finish bottom in the National League and the 100/30 about North Ferriby to do so looks on the big side. As I mention in the preview I would be amazed if they stayed up and they look like a side who is going to really struggle this season. I would have them way shorter than that to finish bottom although not sure how much they will let you have on because I couldn't get much on myself.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...