Sign in to follow this  
Darran

Tour de France 2016

Recommended Posts

This forum seems rather quiet so not sure how much interest there will be, but here are my thoughts on this year's race.

Yellow Jersey

To me this year’s Tour looks a match between last year’s first and second Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana. Last year I went with Quintana and I am going to go with him again to get his first Yellow Jersey. Quintana has been in superb form this season having won the Tour of Catalonia and the Tour of Romandy. He lost the Tour in the cross winds on Stage 2 last year and he was actually quicker than Chris Froome overall in the mountains. There is more time-trialing miles this year which is in Froome’s favour, but neither time-trail is far from flat, indeed the 2nd one on Stage is pretty much uphill all the way. That means Quintana shouldn’t lose that much time on Froome. Froome has had a pretty good season as well and he seems to be coming into form at the right time. In his two Tour wins he has been at his best in the first mountain stage and then defended his advantage, but because this year’s 2nd half of the race is so tough, he is aiming to peak later in the race, especially as that is also when Quintana is at his strongest. Froome has a very strong team to back him up and that will help him, but at 26 Quintana looks to be improving and I think he is the stronger climber. There might not be a great deal in it, but especially at Betway’s 21/10 Quintana looks the value. All things being equal these two will finish first and second and it is worth having a cover bet on the Froome/Quintana forecast which is 100/30 with Betway as well as taking the 4s on it being the other way round.

 

Top 3

Alberto Contador is the only other rider in single figures, but I think he is vulnerable. Although there are various excuses for why he hasn’t won the Tour since 2009, ultimately it has to be said he just isn’t as good at the Tour as he used to be. I think he looks vulnerable for 3rd place. Fabio Aru makes his Tour debut, but he hasn’t been in the best of form and although he is no doubt looking to peak in time for the Tour I don’t really like his chances of finishing on the podium. Richie Porte left Team Sky in the winter and is now at BMC, but he always seems to have at least one really bad day in a Grand Tour. The man worth backing at 7/2 is Thibaut Pinot. He did seem to lose the plot at times in last year’s race as he couldn’t repeat his 2014 3rd. This year though will hopefully be different. He has been in strong form and crucially his time-trialing has really improved. I’m not sure he will be able to live with the big two, but he looks to have a very good chance of being best of the rest.

 

Top 10

There are two bets I like here. First off is Dan Martin who will be leading a Grand Tour team for the first time. He is a very good climber and looks well up to finishing in a top 10 place. His price has collapsed with Bet 365 in recent days having been 5/1 and is now only 6/4 with them. He can still be backed at 7/2 with some small firms, but is 3/1 with Skybet and Betway and that looks value. Geraint Thomas was on for a top 5 finish last year until he had one bad day. He will obviously be looking after Froome again, but based on last year that could easily be enough to see him in the top 10 and the 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Skybet looks worth taking.

 

Points Jersey and sprinters

I will be surprised if Peter Sagan doesn’t win the Green Jersey with ease again. He is a best price of 8/13 with Paddy Power and I couldn’t put anyone off taking that. I always have slight reservations of taking such a short price in a 3 week Tour as you never know what might happen, but he wins if he gets to Paris. Greipel was 2nd last year, but he benefitted from no Marcel Kittel and that might harm his chances of getting closer to Sagan. Kittel had illness issues last season and was never at his best. This time around is very different though and he has looked pretty much unbeatable. He should win multiple stages which might see him go close, but the problem is he has never really seemed that bothered in going for sprint points during the stage and he seems happy just to win stages. I make it 7 stages that could end in a sprint finish and Bet365’s 13/8 in Kittel winning over 3.5 looks worth taking as all things being equal he should win at least 4. Mark Cavendish is still a good sprinter, but he just can’t beat Kittel and he will need a bit of luck to pick up a stage.

 

King Of The Mountains

Ever since they changed the way they dish out the points in this competition it has become one that the GC men can finish high in. Indeed Chris Froome ended up winning it last year and Quintana was 2nd. Both are 7/1 with William Hill and Froome is that price with Paddy Power who are going 4 places as well. They both look worth backing e/w as they should both hit the frame and there is decent chance one of them can win it.

 

Team Classification

Movistar bolted up in this last year beating Team Sky by nearly an hour. I think they should go well again as they have riders who can consistently place high up on a stage and they seem happy to let one of their lesser riders get into a break, which is something Team Sky don’t do. Having said that Team Sky have possibly their strongest team yet and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if they got 3 riders in the top 10. This market isn’t on Oddschecker at the time of writing, but the best prices I have found is 2/1 Team Sky with Coral and 4/1 Movistar with Bet 365.

 

Stage 1

This looks a sprinters stage and it wouldn’t surprise me if Kittel went off odds on come Saturday morning. That means the 11/8 with Betway looks big as unless something strange happens it is hard to see him not winning.

 

Quintana to win Yellow Jersey 1pt

Quintana/Froome 1pt forecast

 Froome/Quintana 1pt forecast

Pinot to finish Top 3 1.5pts

Dan Martin to finish Top 10 1pt

Geraint Thomas to finish Top 10 1.5pts

Kittel to win over 3.5 stages 2pts

Quintana to win KOTM 1pt e/w

Froome to win KOTM 1pt e/w

Team Sky to win Team Classification 2pts

Movistar to win Team Classification 1pt

 

Kittel to win Stage 1 2.5pts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Geraint Thomas' performances in Romandie and Suisse would be a concern for me. Rasch was saying he struggled with the cold in Switzerland now that he's so skinny. That tells us he has prepped for the high mountains, but it can take time for the body to adapt to weight change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Sign in to follow this  

    • Bookies 44
    • Offers 9
    • Casino 8
    New Customers. T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

    Free Bets

    • Bet £20, Get £60 World Cup Free Bets! £60
      New UK Customers only. Min deposit £10. £20 Casino Bonus 24 hours after deposit. Place sportsbook accumulated bets of £20 at Min 3/5 (1.60) on all markets (except Racing)and once all bets are settled you will receive £40 in Free Bets. £20 Pre Pre Match and £20 In Play Free Bet. Cash out function not valid. T&Cs Apply.
    • £30 in Free Bets! £30
      New customers only. Min. stake of £10/€10 at odds of 1/2 or greater. Only the “win” part from EW bets will count. Free bet terms, payment method & country restrictions apply. Free bets credited as 3 x £10/€10. Free bet stakes are not returned as part of the settlement of successful free bets. All Free Bets must be wagered within 30 days. UK&IRE Only.
    • Bet £10 Get £30! £30
      New Customers only. Min deposit and bet £10 at 1/2 (1.50) using code 30f. Free bets expires in 7 days and are not included in returns. Payment method restrictions apply.
    • EXCLUSIVE: £5 No Deposit Free Bet! £5
      New Customers only. Create and validate your new account, no deposit bonus credited within 48 hours!
    • EXCLUSIVE: Up to £50 Free Bet! £50
      New customers only. Up to £50 free bet to the value of your first qualifying bet. Min stake £5 at min odds 1/5 (1.20). If your first bet is an accumulator, at least one selection must meet the min odds requirement. Qualifying bet must be placed in first 30 days of account opening. Cards & Paypal only. Free Bet expires in 7 days. T&Cs apply.
    • EXCLUSIVE: Bet £10 Get £30! £30
      New customers only. Min stake £10 at odds of 1/2 (1.50) and get £30 in free bets. Cards & Paypal deposits only. Free bets expire in 30 days & must be used on a Sportsbook market. T&Cs apply.
    • £30 in Free Bets! £30
      New Customers only. Min Deposit & stake £10. Free Bets Credited as 3x£10. Free Bet Stake Not Returned and valid for 4 days. T&C's Apply. UK & IRE only.
    • Bet £10 Get £70 in Free Bets! £70
      New Customers only. Promo code WC18. Bet £10 on 2018 World Cup Outright market. Promotion starts 9am 01/06/18 until 1pm 15/06/18. £10 Free Bet credited per game won in 90 mins by your outright selection, credited within 10 hours
    • Up to £100 in Bet Credits! £100
      New Customers only. Min deposit £5. 1x settled bet requirement to withdraw Bet Credits. Min odds/bet & payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits apply.
    • £50 Free Bet £50
      New customers only. Promo code 'F50' required. Certain deposit methods excluded. Min deposit and bet £5 on win or each-way bet excluding Tote or pools. Max £/€50 free bet. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Bet must be made within 14 days. Free bet valid for 4 days and stake not returned. UK&IRE only.
    • £150 No Deposit Offer! £150
      New customers only. Join and get £150 No Deposit funds to bet with that cannot be withdrawn. Any losses over £150 are your liability. Losses may exceed your initial deposit or credit limit. Market restrictions apply & 7 day expiry.
    • £50 Bonus at Mansionbet! £50
      New customers only. Use code MB50. Min Deposit of £10. Deposit and bonus wagering x 6 at odds of 4/5 (1.80). UK debit/credit cards only.
    • £10 Free Bet at Karamba! £10
      New customers only. Min deposit £10 at Evens (2.00). Expires after 14 days. Neteller, Skrill & Paysafe excluded.
    • Up To €100 Sign Up Offer €100
      New Customers only. Bet €10 & get €10 back! Place your 10th bet & get the average value of first 10 bets back, up to €40 max. Bet €60 in first 4 weeks & get €12.50 back, can repeat 4 times.
    • £20 Free Bet! £20
      New Customers only. Min stake is £20 at min odds of 1.80 (4/5). Payment methods excluded. Free Bets stake not returned & expires in 7 days.
    • £40 in Free Bets! £40
      New customers only. Opt in and bet min £10 at Evens (2.00) or higher. £30 Free Sports Bet split as 3 x £10 on certain events + £10 Casino Bonus. Free bets expire after 7 days and no stakes are returned. 18+. begambleaware.org. T&Cs apply.
    • £200 Refund Every Day! £200
      ALL Customers. Verified accounts and only on Soccer. Applies to bets made before 70th min and offer is valid if bet is lost after 88.01 mins. Limited to £200 refund once per day.
    • Bet £20 Get £20 £20
      New Customers Only. Must opt in. Minimum stake to qualify is £20 at minimum odds of 2.00 (EVENS). Neteller & Skrill excluded. Free Bets stake not returned and expires in 7 days.
    • Deposit £20, Play with £70! £50
      New Customers only. Min Deposit £20. Max Sports Bonus £30. Max Casino Bonus £20. 5x wagering to release sports bonus. Min odds 1.80 (4/5) 40x wagering to release casino bonus.
    • £30 Free Bet £30
      New UK & Ireland customers only. Min First Deposit £10 and matched up to £30. 1 x wagering at min odds of 1.75. Credit Card, Debit Card & PayPal deposits only.
    • The UK version of Pinnacle? £0
      UK Licensed Mustardbet aiming to be the UK version of Pinnacle, betting to very low margins. Well worth a look!
    • Bet £5 Get £10! £30
      New customers only. Use code G10. Min deposit & bet £5 at odds of 1/2 (1.50) on any sports market. Only win portion of each-way bets count. Free bet expires after 30 days and no stake is returned.
    • £25 Free Bet £25
      New customers only. Min £10 stake for initial £5 free bet at odds of 1/2. Max £25 in free bets. 13 bets required to receive full £25 free bet. 30 days to activate qualifying bet. Free bet expires after 7 days. Payment method restrictions.
    • Bet £10 Get £10 if first bet loses! £10
      New customers only. £5 Free Bet & £5 Casino Bonus if your first bet loses. Min bet £10 single at evens (2.00) or higher. T&C's apply.
    • £35 Free Bet Bonus! £35
      New customers only. Place 6 bets each with a minimum stake of £10 at min odds of 2.00. Your Bonus Token bonus will be equivalent to your lowest stake during all your qualifying bets. Neteller & Skrill excluded.
    • £50 Deposit Bonus! £50
      New customers only. £50 Sports Welcome Bonus is based on 20% of your first deposit. Min deposit £10 (or currency equivalent) at odds 1.95 or higher are permitted while betting to meet the wagering requirement.
    • Bet £10 Get £10 Free Bet £10
      Must opt in on registering. Min deposit £10 at min odds of 1.80 (4/5). Some payment methods excluded. Expires after 30 days and non withdrawable. UK only.
    • £200 Deposit Bonus £200
      New Customers only using code FD200. Min. deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller). Bonus is 50% of deposit. 1x deposit turnover at min odds 3/5 (1.60) for bonus receipt. 5x deposit & bonus turnover in 90 days for bonus release. Withdrawals limits.
    • £10 Bonus at Smarkets! £10
      New customers only. Min deposit £20. First £10 losses from the exchange refunded as a bonus. Skrill and Neteller are excluded from this sign up offer.
    • £50 Deposit Bonus £50
      Register with K8 Sports as a new customer and you will qualify for up to a £50 bonus! Just deposit up to £50 for the first time and they'll match it to 100%. Bonus expires after 14 days and cannot be withdrawn. Min odds for bonus funds is 2.00 or higher.
    • Grosvenor - Double Odds First Bet! £0
      New customers only. Offer applies to Grosvenor Sports bets only. Max stake £20. Bets made with Odds Boost Token. Neteller & Skrill deposits excluded.
    • £50 Deposit Bonus £50
      New customers only. Min deposit of £10 at odds of 1.50 (1/2) to qualify as rollover requirements. Max bonus is £50. Use code WELCOME. Bonus qualifying period is 45 days. Payment restrictions apply.
    • Up to £25 Free Bet £25
      New customers only. First bet must lose to qualify for the free bet. Min bet £1 to qualify for a free bet value up to £25. First bet must be placed on sportsbook markets only.
    • £10 Free Bet Each Week for Life! £520
      ALL Customers. To qualify for this free bets offer, you must place 10 x £10 bets per week at min odds of 2.00 to get your £10 free bet each week. Free bets expire after 7 days and are the free bet stake is not withdrawable.
    • Free Bets Forever! £520
      Place 5 bets of £10 or more at 2.00 (EVENS) or higher and receive a £10 free bet. Repeat every 7 days to get a £10 free bet each week forever. UK only.
    • £10 Risk Free + £50 Casino Bonus! £60
      New customers only. Deposit & bet £10 at odds of Evens 1/2 (2.00). Free Bet must be wagered at max odds of 4/1 (5.00). Free bets expire after 14 days, Casino Bonus 30 days. No free bet/bonus stake can be withdrawn.
    • £1000 Cashback + 2% Commission! £1000
      Must opt in and use promo code DAQBACK. £1000 cashback offer expires after 30 days.
    • £200 Free Bet £200
      New customers only. Min deposit £30 to get bonus. Max bonus amount is £200. 14 days to qualify ti withdraw bonus/winnings. Max stake on first deposit & bonus is £50 per bet, per event.
    • 100% Bonus £10
      ALL customers. Various options to choose on opt in. Min odds is Evens (2.00). Maximum profit boost that will be credited is £100.
    • £50 Deposit Bonus £50
      New customers only. Use code WELCOME50. 50% bonus on first deposit up to £50. Rollover restrictions apply. Deposit must be made within 24 hours. Rollover of deposit and bonus x6 to withdraw.
    • £25 Free Bet Offer £25
      Scottish residents only. First bet must be within 30 days of registering. Min odds of 2.00 (EVENS). Payment restrictions apply. Free bet stake not returned and expires after 7 days.
    • £10 Free Bet at 138.com £10
      New customers only. Up to £10 free bet 100% match. Min bet to qualify is £5 at odds of 4/5 (1.80) or higher. Only credit cards are eligible. Free bet offer expires after 5 days.
    • £15 Free Bet £15
      New customers only. Min deposit £10 at odds of EVENS (2.00). If first bet loses, you'll be refunded up to a £15 free bet. Skrill & Neteller deposits don't qualify. Free bet cannot be withdrawn and expires after 7 days.
    • Win an iPad! £0
      New customers only. Win an iPad 32GB Wi Fi when opening an account and staking £300 on qualifying markets. Increase stakes to £500 and win iPad Pro 64GB Wi Fi. Offer expires 28 days after registering.

    Casino

    • £250 Bonus & 50 Free Spins! £250
      New players only. 100% deposit bonus up to £250 + 50 Free Spins if depositing min £10. Use Exclusive Code: PUNTER50. NO WAGERING needed on free spins!
    • 10 Free Spins + 100 More 1st Deposit! £0
      18+. NEW CUSTOMERS ONLY. 10 FREE SPINS ON REGISTRATION AND MOBILE VERIFICATION (UK ONLY). 100 FREE SPINS ON FIRST DEPOSIT. FREE SPINS HAVE 3-DAY EXPIRY AND ARE AVAILABLE ON SELECTED GAMES ONLY. £10 MIN DEPOSIT + 2.5% FEE (MIN 50P). CASH BALANCE WITHDRAWABLE ANYTIME + £2.50 FEE. FULL T&CS APPLY.
    • Up to £200 Bonus! £200
      New players only. Min deposit £20. Wager 40x before withdrawing. Game weighting applies. Max bonus betting limit – slots: £5, other games: 10% of bonus amount. T&Cs apply.
    • 25 Free Spins! £0
      New UK&IRL Customers only. Free Spins can only be played on eligible games. No wagering requirements on winnings. SMS verification required. Opt in required, full T&Cs apply
    • 30 Free Spins! £0
      New Customers only. One bonus per customer. 30 free spins added to accounts verified by SMS (x1 wagering). Free spins expire within 10 Days & on selected games only.
    • Up to £100 Casino Bonus! £100
      Min deposit £10. x45 wagering, Roulette and blackjack 50% weighting. Bonus Valid 7 days. No using Moneybookers/Skrill or Neteller as a payment method.
    • £50 Bonus + 20 Free Spins £50
      New UK&IRE customers only. Deposits made with e-wallets are not valid. Bonus wagering x35 on eligible games. Max winnings from bonus £500. Spins available after bonus is redeemed/lost. 10 per day with no wagering.
    • £400 Slots bonus + 100 Free Spins £400
      New UK&IRE Players only. Min buy-in £20. Bonus wagering 35x on eligible games. Spins available day after bonus is lost/redeemed, 10 per day for 10 days, no wagering.

    • 25/1 England to beat Panama! £25
      New Customers can get England at an enhanced 25/1 to beat Panama. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets, valid for 7 days, only deposits with cards/Paypal count. Exchange and multiple bets excluded. T&C’s Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware.
    • 50/1 Kane to Score v Panama! £50
      18+. New UK+IRE customers only. Certain deposit types and cash out excluded. Winning bets paid in cash at normal price. Enhanced odds paid in £5 free bets credited within 24 hours, valid for 4 days, stake not returned. Losing £5 free bet excludes Coral Connect customers. T&Cs Apply.
    • 25/1 Portugal to beat Iran! £25
      New Customers can get Portugal at an enhanced 25/1 to beat Iran. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets, valid for 7 days, only deposits with cards/Paypal count. Exchange and multiple bets excluded. T&C’s Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware.
    • 25/1 Spain to beat Morocco! £25
      New Customers can get Spain at an enhanced 25/1 to beat Morocco. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets, valid for 7 days, only deposits with cards/Paypal count. Exchange and multiple bets excluded. T&C’s Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware.
    • 30/1 France to beat Denmark! £30
      New Customers can get France at an enhanced 30/1 to beat Denmark. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets, valid for 7 days, only deposits with cards/Paypal count. Exchange and multiple bets excluded. T&C’s Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware.
    • 30/1 Argentina to beat Nigeria! £30
      New Customers can get Argentina at an enhanced 30/1 to beat Nigeria. Max Stake £1. Winnings paid in free bets, valid for 7 days, only deposits with cards/Paypal count. Exchange and multiple bets excluded. T&C’s Apply. 18+|Gamble Aware.
    • PP's Beat The Drop - Win £1m! £1m
      Sign up to Paddy Power and play Beat The Drop and you’ll receive a £/€1,000,000,000 Pot. Answer the chosen number of questions while either splitting the pot or going all in. Money left in the pot after all the questions are answered is yours to keep. One free entry per customer to a £/€1,000,000 pot £/€20 version of the game. T&Cs apply.
    • Win £1m at BetVictor during World Cup! £1m
      Place a £1+ Qualifying Bet on World Cup 2018. Winning Qualifying Bet with biggest odds wins £1M prize (shared if 1+ winners). Opt Out: help@BetVictor.com; Min. deposit £5; T&C's apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
    • Win World Cup £1m with Coral! £1m
      18+. UK+IRE online and mobile verified Coral customers only. £1 Million represents total prize fund. Full T&Cs apply.
  • Popular Members

  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      114782
    • Total Posts
      2008634