Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
** Cheltenham Tipster Competition Result : 1st Old codger, 2nd sirspread, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert **

Champions League 16/17 Qualifying


Recommended Posts

Just having a quick look at the odds and I'm surprised to see Flora as high as 3/10 at home to Gibraltarian champions Lincoln Red Imps. By comparison, The New Saints from Wales are no bigger than 1/10 at home to Sammarinese champions Tre Penne, and I wouldn't say there is any huge difference in the respective gaps between the sides. Consider the performances of the San Marino and Gibraltar national teams in Euro 2016 qualifying - Gibraltar actually fared worse, losing all 10 games and shipping a staggering 56 goals while Marino managed a point and 'only' conceded 36 times. Of course the national teams cannot be used as an exact benchmark for club sides, but here it is worth noting the significant overlap in the Gibraltar and Lincoln Red Imps squads - the club contributed a high number of players to the national team, and it was clear that they were completely out of their depth in Europe. As for Flora, they're obviously no world-beaters themselves - they're playing in this stage of the competition for a reason - but they are one of the stronger Estonian sides, they are 17 games into their league season and so have the match fitness advantage, and they have been solid at home in their domestic season, conceding in only one of their nine home games thus far and racking up 6-0 wins against two of the league's weaker sides. With this in mind, 3/10 for the straight win looks like decent value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I watched the game, at least the first half, and it was quite a close one. Lincoln was alright, even with Tallinn being the better side at home. A 2-1 leaves all the options for Gibraltar's champion to hit them back in the second leg.

Even the New Saints game was surprisingly close by the looks of the result, 2-1. Are the gaps closing between those small teams too? Basically every single tie can still be turned around in the second leg.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

I must admit, I am surprised TNS pulled off a 3-0 win away after being held so close in the first leg. They now have a beast of a tie against APOEL Nicosia but if they can get a draw out in Cyprus then I'm sure they can spring an upset in the home leg.

Lincoln now has a plum tie with Celtic. Be interesting to see how Brendan Rodgers approaches that game. He's never impressed in Europe but makes his teams hard to beat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This stage of the competition, you're better off going for an accumulator. There are a lot of mismatches. For example, FK Qarabag should see off F91 Dudelange, Red Bull Salzburg should dominate Liepaja, and BATE Borisov should easily dispose of SJK. If you want to bet on them individually then find those sort of games with a heavy favourite and back the European Handicap. It is particularly viable for when the favourite is at home because a lot of smaller teams struggle to cope travelling in this competition.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dinamo Tbilisi v Alashkert

Dinamo Tbilisi: Nikoloz Gelashvili (9/1 f)

Alashkert: Mihran Manasyan (22/16 f, top scorer, suspended)

 

The New Saints v APOEL

The New Saints (last season): Simon Spender (27/1 d, doubtful)

 

POEL: Qazim Laçi (m, newcomer)

 

Valletta v Crvena Zvezda

Valletta (last season): Nicky Vella (8/0 g), Ryan Camilleri (30/0 d, suspended)

Crvena Zvezda: no absences

 

RB Salzburg v FK Liepaja

RB Salzburg (last season): Laimer (18/1 m, doubtful), Upamecano (2/0 d, suspended), Leitgeb (3/0 m), Yabo (0/0 m), Prevljak (7/1 f), Wanderson (f, newcomer)

FK Liepaja: Dmitrijs Hmizs (0/0 m), Kristaps Grebis (8/1 f, doubtful)

 

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 90 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

Edited by malabgd
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Champions League: Vardar Skopje - Dinamo Zagreb

Sweltering in Skopje today and conditions will probably slightly favour the hosts, but that is probably the only advantage they might have and it will have cooled down significantly by kick off and if the forecast I saw is 100% correct, there might even be some cloud cover and a slight breeze during the game.

The Macedonian team have struggled in Europe and have not won a game since 2004, that is 16 fixtures (0-6-10), they have mainly been playing teams of a similar level to Dinamo and they are going to have to up the level of their performance to break their duck this evening.

Veteran coach Zlatko Kranjčar is back in charge of Dinamo for a third time and will clearly have a mandate to continue the visitors fine record in the competition and European football in general and to get another share of the huge riches that the Champions League offer for his club.

Over the last decade, Dinamo have qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Cup/Europa League four times, the Champions League three times since 2011-12 including last year, when they beat Arsenal in the group stage and picked up 13.5m €. You get "used" to that kind of money and the club accountants will be looking for more of the same. Of course, they do not need to win today, a point would not be terrible and they would be confident of turning things in their favour next week, but that would put them under a little pressure , everyone knows the value of an away goal and one might be enough to collect the win today. Vardar are a little short handed up top and Dinamo have an amazing UEFA Champions League qualifying road record, being 9-2-0 away from home in the last four years.

The Macedonian league doesn't begin again until next month, the Croatian league re-starts this weekend, so the visitors should be a few weeks further along in terms of fitness and I expect them to win this.

Dinamo Zagreb -0.5 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket

 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My pics of the day is

Dinamo Tbilisi over 1.5 goal 1.72 3 / 5U
last year was one good at home and they make a lot of goals goal striker Kvilitaia
has got to get a good result here.

Bate goal in both halves 1.90 3 / 5U
Bate is a strong team leads the domestic league with 8 points and last year took it to the group stage, and was right near and move on. SJK won the Finnish league last year but this year has not been good and is just a 7 th place.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, clubgowi said:
Champions League: Vardar Skopje - Dinamo Zagreb

Sweltering in Skopje today and conditions will probably slightly favour the hosts, but that is probably the only advantage they might have and it will have cooled down significantly by kick off and if the forecast I saw is 100% correct, there might even be some cloud cover and a slight breeze during the game.

The Macedonian team have struggled in Europe and have not won a game since 2004, that is 16 fixtures (0-6-10), they have mainly been playing teams of a similar level to Dinamo and they are going to have to up the level of their performance to break their duck this evening.

Veteran coach Zlatko Kranjčar is back in charge of Dinamo for a third time and will clearly have a mandate to continue the visitors fine record in the competition and European football in general and to get another share of the huge riches that the Champions League offer for his club.

Over the last decade, Dinamo have qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Cup/Europa League four times, the Champions League three times since 2011-12 including last year, when they beat Arsenal in the group stage and picked up 13.5m €. You get "used" to that kind of money and the club accountants will be looking for more of the same. Of course, they do not need to win today, a point would not be terrible and they would be confident of turning things in their favour next week, but that would put them under a little pressure , everyone knows the value of an away goal and one might be enough to collect the win today. Vardar are a little short handed up top and Dinamo have an amazing UEFA Champions League qualifying road record, being 9-2-0 away from home in the last four years.

The Macedonian league doesn't begin again until next month, the Croatian league re-starts this weekend, so the visitors should be a few weeks further along in terms of fitness and I expect them to win this.

Dinamo Zagreb -0.5 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket

 

Since you posted the same message elsewhere, I will repeat that you should refrain from using the term "macedonian". There is no such entity and you should use the proper FYROM term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After first match between Dinamo Tbilisi and Alashkert, I'm sure in Dynamo win in away. Especially because they have awesome statistics parameters after first match:
     Dinamo Tbilisi 2 - 0 Alashkert
           16 Total attempts 5
                 6 on target 1
                 9 off target 4
                  1 blocked 0
                  0 woodwork 1
                  6 corners 0
On mollybet I found odds for Dinamo win @2.44.
This is great opportunity for winning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FK Liepaja v RB Salzburg

FK Liepaja: Strumija (13/0 m, doubtful)

RB Salzburg (last season): Yabo (0/0 m), Prevljak (7/1 f), Wanderson (f, newcomer)

 

Seinajoen JK v BATE Borisov

Seinajoen JK: no absences

BATE Borisov: Milunović (11/2 d), Signevich (3/0 f)

 

FC København v Crusaders Belfast

FC København: Verbič (1/1 m, suspended), Ankersen (1/0 d), Kvist (1/0 m)

Crusaders Belfast: no absences

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 90 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Vardar - Dinamo Zagreb Victory for Dinamo Zagreb and qualification

Ferencvaros - Partiani Victory for Ferencvaros and qualification

Celtic - Lincoln Victory for Celtic and qualification

Trencin - Olimpija Ljubljana Qualification for Trencin

Norrkoping - Rosenborg Qualification for Rosenborg on aggregate

Dudelange - Qarabag Second victory for Qarabag and qualification

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Podosfairistis said:

Vardar - Dinamo Zagreb Victory for Dinamo Zagreb and qualification

Ferencvaros - Partiani Victory for Ferencvaros and qualification

Celtic - Lincoln Victory for Celtic and qualification

Trencin - Olimpija Ljubljana Qualification for Trencin

Norrkoping - Rosenborg Qualification for Rosenborg on aggregate

Dudelange - Qarabag Second victory for Qarabag and qualification

 

I agree with you, this is so good prediction. In support of this I will add odds of big bookies via mollybet.

 

forum.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How the fck do Celtic not score at least 5 vs the champions of Gibraltar??? Rodgers is such a joke. No wonder this clown has now settled for SPL. Probably told them to show "character" in his half time speech.  

Edited by discipline
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Podosfairistis said:

Vardar - Dinamo Zagreb Victory for Dinamo Zagreb and qualification

Ferencvaros - Partiani Victory for Ferencvaros and qualification

Celtic - Lincoln Victory for Celtic and qualification

Trencin - Olimpija Ljubljana Qualification for Trencin

Norrkoping - Rosenborg Qualification for Rosenborg on aggregate

Dudelange - Qarabag Second victory for Qarabag and qualification

 

Got 4 all the way, got the Qrabag qualification but not the victory and lost the Ferencvaros-Partizani all the way. 6 out of 9. Not bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Previous years in this phase of qualification Ludogorets played with Partizan Belgrade. It's interesting that this year they also play with team from Serbia Red Star. Red Star presented poorly game in the matches with amateur team Valeta.  Ludogorets destroyed Mladost Podgorica with 5-0 in both matches. And in this neighbors derby absolutely favorite is Ludogorets, do you agree?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ludogorets are a very underrated side on the European stage. Their exploits a couple of years back in the 2013/14 Europa League show how dangerous they can be. They beat the likes of PSV, Dinamo Zagreb, Chornomorets Odessa, and Lazio that season. That was only three campaigns ago.

 

On a personal note, I was gutted to see Welsh side TNS lose 3-0 to APOEL. Welsh football is in dire need of a team to make some progress on the European stage but unfortunately it won't happen again this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 21/7/2016, 1:30:11, Niceguy said:

Previous years in this phase of qualification Ludogorets played with Partizan Belgrade. It's interesting that this year they also play with team from Serbia Red Star. Red Star presented poorly game in the matches with amateur team Valeta.  Ludogorets destroyed Mladost Podgorica with 5-0 in both matches. And in this neighbors derby absolutely favorite is Ludogorets, do you agree?

Not really. I think Red Star simply underestimated their opponents. It will be a tough matchup but I believe in the end the Serbians will go through. Either on penalties or on aggregate or on the away goal. I expect one victory for each side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Ludogorets are a very underrated side on the European stage. Their exploits a couple of years back in the 2013/14 Europa League show how dangerous they can be. They beat the likes of PSV, Dinamo Zagreb, Chornomorets Odessa, and Lazio that season. That was only three campaigns ago.

 

On a personal note, I was gutted to see Welsh side TNS lose 3-0 to APOEL. Welsh football is in dire need of a team to make some progress on the European stage but unfortunately it won't happen again this season.

All your good players are in England. You should offer them incentives to man the Welsh teams. Excluding Bale (I don't think any Wlesh team could offer 100 million Euros to get him) and Ramsey, you may be able to get some of your good players back if you offer them adequate incentives. Otherwise I can't see how you could do any better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Podosfairistis said:

All your good players are in England. You should offer them incentives to man the Welsh teams. Excluding Bale (I don't think any Wlesh team could offer 100 million Euros to get him) and Ramsey, you may be able to get some of your good players back if you offer them adequate incentives. Otherwise I can't see how you could do any better.

Exactly, I think you make a very valid point. The prize money Wales earned from the 2016 European Championship has been allegedly ear marked for grass roots investment. I think if clubs can improve their facilities, particularly at youth level, then the incentive for younger players to join will be stronger. The clubs can already offer European football which is something Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, and Merthyr are unable to do regularly so they do have a unique selling point. The trouble is the standard of the league. The Welsh broadcasting service S4C has started increasing its coverage of Welsh Premier League games which is a step in the right direction but the state of Welsh League football is simply down to complete incompetence by the FAW for generations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/22/2016, 12:42:37, Podosfairistis said:

Not really. I think Red Star simply underestimated their opponents. It will be a tough matchup but I believe in the end the Serbians will go through. Either on penalties or on aggregate or on the away goal. I expect one victory for each side.

I think it's very ambitious prediction, even bookies show differently, you can see the screenshot that I found on twitter @betinasia. Odds on Ludogorets is @1.83 and on Red Star is @4.33. It's clear who is the favorite.

bia25.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BATE Borisov v Dundalk FC

BATE Borisov: Milunović (11/2 d), Antsileuski (3/0 f)

Dundalk FC: Gartland (17/2 d)

 

Ludogorets v FK Crvena Zvezda

Ludogorets (last season): Misidjan (17/2 f, probably in), Campanharo (m, newcomer)

FK Crvena Zvezda: Orlandić (0/0 f), Babunski (1/0 m)

 

AFC Ajax v PAOK Salonica

AFC Ajax (last season): Nemanja Gudelj (34/4 m, suspended), Riechedly Bazoer (29/5 m), Arek Milik (31/21 f, top scorer)

PAOK Salonica (last season): Djalma Campos (f, newcomer), Léo Matos (m, newcomer)(both probably in), Fernando Varela (d, newcomer), Ergys Kaçe (21/0 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...