Euro 2016 > June 17th to June 23rd

[IanH]

Tips and previews for the second week of Euro 2016

[IanH]

One team to dominate second fixture

Italy produced just the best all-round performance during the first phase of matches during Euro 2016. They can build on the 2-0 victory over Belgium by beating Sweden in their second match in Toulouse on Friday. The tournament as a whole has been relatively low scoring to date and Italy can continue that trend by beating their opponents in a match with fewer than three goals which points to a correct score of one or two nil and the former outcome is more likely. After 12 games no team had scored three goals in a match and Italy are unlikely to manage that.

To read the full preview please visit: http://punts.pl/dcAFoW

[IanH]

Decisive second phase group match

Croatia were worth more than their one goal victory over Turkey in the first phase of matches in Euro 2014. CzechRepublic were second best in their opening fixture with Spain and losing by the same score was not a fair reflection of the balance of play. Croatia can confirm the form of those matches by recording a narrow win over CzechRepublic when the two sides met in a Group D fixture in Saint Etienne on Friday.

For a full preview please visit: http://punts.pl/L7nSoN

 

[Smartsportsincome]

A recap of matchday 1 in that group and the preview for England's match tomorrow below

 

Wales vs Slovakia 2-1

A deserved win for an energetic, if limited, Wales side. Slovakia looked overall really poor. One good run by Hamsik early that could (or should) have put them up. Then the keeper allowed a really soft goal and chasing the game was never gonna work for Slovakia. Some more soft defending, this time by Wales, allowed Slovakia to get back in. Couldn’t catch the rest of the match but from what I got, the winner was well deserved. Wales should feel really good about its effort going into the big match against England two points up. Slovakia quite frankly looked really bad and they can count themselves lucky that Russia played even worse, although I couldn’t imagine how that was possible at that stage. Still, they are likely done with this loss. The under was a poor bet in the end. Though the first two goals were pretty soft goalkeeping/defending, the match was more open than expected even if the quality wasn’t too great.

England vs Russia 1-1

England started nice and energetic with a high press in the opening 20 mins. They had some decent-looking situations but couldn’t really create a big chance and Russia managed to slow the tempo down more. After that, England looked in control but never too threatening. An excellent free kick put them up, though I think a better goalkeeper keeps that out. When the match already looked dead, Russia scored an improbable and undeserved equalizer, which was pretty much a freak goal. England were definitely unlucky in that one as Russia didn’t create a proper chance the whole match. Still, Sterling’s decision-making was bad and Hodgson could have done better to sub him off. Liked Walker and Rooney the most for England. They will need a win vs Wales to put themselves in a good position for the group win, which now won’t be too easy. Russia were quite awful in my opinion. Expected much better play at front but they looked horribly toothless. They’ll have a tough time beating Slovakia I think, even though both teams can’t really play any worse. 

 

 

 

England vs Wales

A very interesting encounter with a lot on the line. England will be fired up even more after Bale’s comments that Wales have more passion. Biggest question for them is whether they remain in the 433 shape of the first match or go to a 442 and introduce Vardy. I believe they should stick with the 433 and try to attack the Welsh wingbacks with their pace. I talked before the tournament about how England for me is a “flat-track bully” and I’d expect them to live up to that now. Wales on the other hand will look to threaten through Bale and I believe he should get some decent opportunities, especially running at the slower Cahill. They conceded a bit of a soft goal against Slovakia and overall their defense at the moment isn’t as good as in qualifications. Wales have conceded in the last five and I believe England will score at least one, possibly two tomorrow. The question will be how many men England is willing to commit forward and thus how much space they open up for Welsh counterattacks. I was flirting with the under with the defensive-minded nature of the tournament in mind but I can’t pull the trigger at current odds (1,75). If they move back to 1,85 or even 1,9 I’d definitely take that even if I definitely can see a 2-1 scoreline for England. No value on the match odds for me and I do have a commitment to England winning the group, so already some interest in the game for me. 

 

[Smartsportsincome]

And a recap of Group C with previews for tomorrow's matches

 

Poland vs Northern Ireland 1-0

Odds went up to 1,8 even before the match, so I got on it before kickoff. Turned out to be a relatively comfortable winner, as Poland dominated start to finish but lacked some incisiveness in the first half. Admittedly, it wasn’t easy against a really destructive NIR side. The early goal in the second half calmed the nerves and they could have got another one but NIR never threatened anyway (0 shots on target). Blaszczykowski and the young Kapustka looked great for me and Poland will really trouble Germany down the flanks I feel. NIR are completely useless and should go out on 0 points. No joy on the odds for Ukraine which are down big time and I rate Ukraine less than Poland.

Germany vs Ukraine 2-0

Probably the most entertaining match (at least the first half). As expected Germany dominated possession but they looked very vulnerable at the back, especially down the flanks. I identified that as their weak point and Germany can count themselves really lucky (+ Neuer) that they didn’t concede in the first half. Controlled the match much better in the second half and ran out a more or less comfortable winner. Kroos was excellent and man of the match. Germany should field a striker next match, they continue to lack punch when Löw fields no real striker and it showed today again. Poland should have some joy vs that defense and I strongly expect goals in that match. Ukraine were decent but toothless in the second half when Germany took better control. 

 

 

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

 

 

Ukraine impressed and NIR disappointed in their opening matches but the matchup will be vastly different this time, at least for Ukraine. They will need to attack and score and that’s probably not going to suit their direct game a whole lot. NIR held on pretty well in their first match and even if they do introduce a bit more support for Lafferty, I have no reason to believe that they will change their defensive gameplan. I believe Ukraine will struggle with this kind of situation and another grindfest looks on the cards. Going back to the start of qualifications NIR has gone under 2,5 13/18 times. We have all seen how most teams approach the matches here and I believe 1,66 (Betfair net odds) is good value and I’d be willing to take that above 1,6. NIR not to score looks decent too at 1,97 but Ukraine has a mixed record with respect to conceding against smaller teams. I would also like a bit of insurance against a 1-1 although I think Ukraine will shut them out.

 

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland Under 2,5 – 1 Unit@1,66 (Betfair net odds)

 

 

Germany vs Poland

 

The last match of the day should offer the best entertainment. Germany was efficient as ever against Ukraine but seemed really vulnerable in defense and was lucky not to concede in the first half. Hummels might be back tomorrow but I believe this won’t change a ton since their problems are their fullbacks. Poland should have quite a bit of success roaming down the flanks with Kuba and Grosicki, who should start again. I believe this is a decent matchup for Poland that wil enable them to play their preferred direct style although clearly Germany has more quality. I expect quite an open match, possibly the best of the tournament so far. Up front Germany should in my opinion start with Gomez but Löw might very well opt to give Götze another chance, despite the lack of clear-cut chances in the first matches. I talked in my preview about Germany’s inclination to dip in their second match and would not be surprised if the pattern repeats itself. They split their meetings in qualifications and I expect Poland to score again tomorrow. This is probably the first time I genuinely expect goals in this tournament and odds are really good value in my opinion.

[mrclubbie]

England vs Wales

This will be one of the most exciting matches for the night. It is interesting to see how low the odds for England are at this moment. Seems that everyone is pinning on them to win.

Indeed, England commands an absolute strong H2H over Wales.

Things get abit tricky since 3rd placing has a chance to qualify for next round as well. A win is far more important than anything else. Less than that, they will have to fight it all out with Slovakia in their final round of group stage.

Key player for Wales I believe will still be Bale.

[IanH]

Biggest margin of victory to date

Spain had 72% of the possession during their 1-0 win over CzechRepublic in the first phase of Euro 2016. Turkey had the ball for more than half the time when they lost by the same scoreline to Croatia in their first match. The conclusion is that keeping the ball does not always relate to results but when the two sides meet in Nice on Friday Spain should dominate possession and win the match by more than one goal.

to read the full preview please visit: http://punts.pl/OWo1MU

 

[markus808]

What do you think about England vs Wales 1-1 draw @8.1 Betfair? Bookies think the likelihood of this happening is 11.63% I beg to differ, England and Belgium are notorious underachivers in tournaments and are always way overpriced. There haven't been 0-0 draws in the group phases for 8 years. I see value taking 1-1, and maybe cover this with 2-1.

Edited June 16, 2016 by markus808

[Mustionown]

2 hours ago, markus808 said:

What do you think about England vs Wales 1-1 draw @8.1 Betfair? Bookies think the likelihood of this happening is 11.63% I beg to differ, England and Belgium are notorious underachivers in tournaments and are always way overpriced. There haven't been 0-0 draws in the group phases for 8 years. I see value taking 1-1, and maybe cover this with 2-1.

Do not think this will happen

[IanH]

Outcome in keeping with results from the first phase       

Hungary caused the biggest upset of Euro 2016 to date by beating the fancied Austria in the first phase of matches. Iceland by population are the smallest team in the tournament so came out of their draw with Portugal with great credit. Hungary now have the momentum and should have enough to beat Iceland in Marseilles on Saturday. Scoring trends in the tournament suggest this fixture will not produce many goals so Hungary are tipped to pick up three more points in a low scoring game.

To read the full preview please visit: http://punts.pl/jGPY4k

 

 

[IanH]

Portugal v Austria

High-scoring match at last between two evenly matched sides

Portugal and Austria were the biggest underachievers of the teams that can win Euro 2016 in their first fixtures. Austria have a solid bank of form from the qualifying process and can justify their status as fancied outsiders to win the tournament by beating Portugal in Paris on Saturday. Scoring trend from the groups contested to qualify for the finals suggest this could be a match with more than two goals and one in which both teams can score.

To read the full preview of this match please visit: http://punts.pl/fV5WOs

 

 

Edited June 17, 2016 by IanH

[silver fox]

Italy v Sweden:

The Italians for me were the surprise side of the first phase of games and though Belgium were not at their bet a lot of credit has to go to Italy for the tactics they used.

Sweden were lucky to escape with a draw against the Irish and rely too much on Ibrahimovic to inspire them and get their goals, if he does not perform then generally neither do the rest of the side.

Italy look solid in defence and if they can keep Ibrahimovic quiet are well capable of snatching the win which at best price evens at time of writing is where my money will be going this afternoon.

Head to head results in recent times favour Italy with 4 wins and 1 draws in the last 7 meetings going there way. I do not expect too many goals in this match either with only 2 of those 7 games going over 2.5 goals."

 

[Sir Puntalot]

21 hours ago, markus808 said:

What do you think about England vs Wales 1-1 draw @8.1 Betfair? Bookies think the likelihood of this happening is 11.63% I beg to differ, England and Belgium are notorious underachivers in tournaments and are always way overpriced. There haven't been 0-0 draws in the group phases for 8 years. I see value taking 1-1, and maybe cover this with 2-1.

Good call.  

[StevieDay1983]

Belgium vs Republic of Ireland: Irish facing pivotal clash with Wilmots' under-achievers

There is a huge game in Group E this Saturday night when Belgium play Republic Ireland in a 5pm kick off. Defeat for either side could leave their qualification hopes hanging by a thread. Where as a victory could all but secure their spot in the last 16.

Selections

Asian Handicap: Republic of Ireland +0.75 @ 1.90 with bet365

>BTTS “Yes” @ 2.10 with BetVictor

Full Article: http://punts.pl/KqOrgD

[Smartsportsincome]

I recapped the two groups' first matchday and posted some previews on today's matches below  Group D looking interesting, Group E too close too call for me.

 

Group D Recap:

 

 

Turkey vs Croatia 0-1

 

Croatia surprisingly put in the best performance for me so far. They needed a brilliant shot from distance (that was saveable), from the equally brilliant Luka Modric to put them up a goal. In the second half especially, they created a ton of good chances and should have easily won by two or three. I would have liked to see a bit less crossing from them but they did create quite a few chances with it too. Their pressing in the second half was imperious and Turkey never looked even close to threatening. Honestly, Turkey was the worst side so far (I expected NIR to suck) and they are pretty much eliminated now, barring a freak improvement in their performance. Croatia will definitely be favourite vs CZ and I’m fancying them on the odds as well. Got a bit unlucky personally, as I took Croatia to score the second a few minutes into the second half. Ah well.

 

 

Spain vs Czech Republic 1-0

 

Spain left it for late which unfortunately meant another push for our bets. They dominated the Czech Republic start to finish and should have won that way more comfortably. Iniesta was majestic in midfield and orchestrated almost every Spanish attack, Silva was good too. Nolito had some poor-decision-making and Morata was decent but a bit unlucky. In general I liked what I saw from Spain, good crisp passing and set up some decent chances to score. They only lacked execution and got again caught up a bit too much in overpassing it. Czech Republic tried to play for a draw and almost got away with it but got punished in the end. There was not a lot to see in terms of their offensive play apart from one decent situation in the Spanish box in the second half. Did not impress me too much, the Czechs left way too much space for Spain in midfield and I think they will have trouble against Croatia as well.

 

 

Group E Recap:

 

 

Ireland vs Sweden 1-1

 

Good performance by Ireland and a poor one by Sweden for a deserved draw. Ireland played with much more energy and effort and compensated for their lack in technical skills. Sweden never threatened and look way too uncreative with the ball and their attempts to play it only through Ibrahimovic. Irish went up deservedly in the second half but dropped too deep after that and allowed Olsson on the left to torment them with dangerous crosses into the box. A good play by Ibra set up the own-goal. Ireland tried to go for the winner after that but lacked quality in the end. A fair split of the points and one more push here (though I personally managed to make some money at least, having layed Sweden shortly before half-time). Not a good result for Ireland to come bottom and Sweden has a backs-against-the-wall situation next match against Italy.

 

 

Belgium vs Italy 0-2

 

Yet another game, yet another under. Belgium’s problems in attack resurfaced again. Despite having tons of talent, they looked unprepared and clueless going forward. Belgium mostly tried to combine down the flanks but ended up crossing it in early to Lukaku, who would then lay it off and one of the midfielders fired from distance. Italy didn’t look particularly threatening either but the Belgian defense created a chance for them to score and they took it. Second half Italy rode it out behind some good and cynical defending, vintage Italian stuff you could say. They look in good shape to go through this group as winners, despite the utter lack of creativity and firepower. A Sweden side that is looking to pick up points will suit their play although this was probably the best matchup for them. Belgium needs to improve really fast and I think they could struggle again against Ireland with that kind of uninspired performance. Particularly disappointing: De Bruyne, who couldn’t get any decision right.

 

 

 

 

Group E Preview:

 

 

Italy vs Sweden

 

 

 

A match that I find really hard to call. Italy exceeded expectations in their first match against Belgium but I feel like this was the best matchup for them as Belgium looked content to whip in long balls towards Lukaku and feeding off the layoffs. Sweden isn’t really the most cunning team either when it comes to tactics as their whole system is based on Ibra. However, Italy will be forced to participate more actively in the match and I doubt that will suit them a lot. They could replace De Rossi with Motta in order to introduce a better passing option and I read Immobile and De Sciglio could be options for Pelle and Darmian, which doesn’t really change a ton for me. The Italians haven’t won a second group match going back to Euro 2000 and I suspect they could be happy with 4 from two matches here as well. Odds on the under are laughably low at 1,43 and not an option for me. Sweden might take a point too but that would put them in a position where they need to beat Belgium in their last match. They might risk a bit more but not too much and we’ve seen how happy most teams are to ride out a draw and gamble on their final match. Can’t see a playable angle here and I’ll avoid.

 

 

 

 

 

Group D Preview:

 

 

 

Czech Republic vs Croatia

 

 

 

Croatia looked surprisingly good in their first match and I’m quite eager to back them here to lock up qualification. They played too much out wide in their first match I felt and I hope they’ll try to impose their will a bit more in the middle of the pitch today. This is where they should totally dominate the Czech Republic with Modric and Rakitic. The defense looked surprisingly solid, albeit untested, and their pressing in the second half was magnificent and they won a ton of balls to set up fast attacks down the flanks. I’m a bit concerned by the role of Mandzukic, he’s nowhere near as prolific for the national squad as in club football (only 1 goal in qualifications) and despite his obvious qualities in aerial duels and chasing the ball, I’m not sure if he’s the best option for their attack. Just some random thoughts as he will obviously start the match again.

 

 The Czechs got a decent result against Spain and almost (undeservedly) held the champs to a draw but I’m yet to see some of that riskier and more attacking brand of football they usually play. They will need to go for it more today although I must say that I can’t help the feeling that they would be content with a draw as well and possibly play for a win in their last match. The qualification system really does mess with incentives to win I feel. I can’t deny a certain draw danger and if both teams are drawing around the 70^th minute mark they could be content to sit it out, similar to the Romania-Switzerland match. I still think odds are worth a play and I’m happy they rebounded from the 1,8x regions from yesterday.

 

 

 

Croatia to beat Czech Republic – 1 Unit@2,06 (Pinnacle)

 

 

 

 

 

Spain vs Turkey

 

 

 

Spain was in my opinion the best of the “big” teams in the first match despite getting the breakthrough only in the 87^th minute. Iniesta was absolutely majestic and orchestrating all their attacks, they had quite a few good chances and were let down by poor execution by Morata/Aduriz or trying to overpass it (a common problem). I didn’t like Nolito a lot, he showed some poor decision-making and I hope Pedro will replace him tonight. Apart from that I feel like Spain own Turkey in every aspect and I really struggle to make a case for the Turks tonight. They looked really toothless in attack, they got a lot of possession that they didn’t know how to make use of (won’t be a problem tonight), and especially in the second half gave away a lot of balls to Croatia that should have been put away for more goals. They are not a counter-attacking side so I struggle to see what their source of goals is going to be. Turkey might aim for a draw here that leaves them with a shot in their final match although realistically they will have to go for it a bit more. Spain are infamous for struggling to find a breakthrough but they usually do. I do not quite like the handicap enough, given how often Spain are content with playing out the 1-0, but I think they will cover tonight and win this one more comfortably so that might be worth a shot in play. I’ll stick with the safer and more boring option.

 

 

 

 

 

Spain to beat Turkey – 1,25 Units@1,51 (Pinnacle)

 

Edited June 17, 2016 by Smartsportsincome

[malabgd]

Belgium v Ireland Republic

Belgium: Eden Hazard (66/13 f, 2nd top scorer, probably in), Kevin De Bruyne (40/12 f, probably in)

Out of squad: Thomas Vermaelen (53/1 d), Yannick Carrasco (4/0 f), Thomas Meunier (5/0 d), Dedryck Boyata (2/0 d), Björn Engels (0/0 d), Guillaume Gillet (22/1 d), Vincent Kompany (70/4 d), Nacer Chadli (31/3 m), Steven Defour (46/2 m), Kevin Mirallas (50/9 f), Nicolas Lombaerts (39/3 d)

Ireland Republic: Jonathan Walters (40/10 f, probably out), Keiren Westwood (18/0 g, doubtful)

Out of squad: Paul McShane (32/0 d), Marc Wilson (24/1 d), Kevin Doyle (62/14 f), Darron Gibson (27/1 m), Simon Cox (30/4 f)

 

Portugal v Austria

Portugal: no absences

Out of squad: Luís Neto (11/0 d), Fábio Coentrão (51/5 d), Danny (38/4 m), Bernardo Silva (6/0 m), Miguel Veloso (56/3 m), Tiago (66/3 m), Silvestre Varela (26/5 m)

Austria: Aleksandar Dragović (48/1 d, suspended), Zlatko Junuzović (49/7 m)

Out of squad: no missings

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 90 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[Smartsportsincome]

Recap of Group F on the first matchday and previews for tomorrow

 

 

Austria vs Hungary 0-2

A terribly disappointing performance by Austria. After 30 seconds they hit the post and looked like they would start the tournament in great fashion but it turned out that this was the pinnacle of their match. To my surprise Hungary looked much more structured and disciplined than Austria, who were all over the place. Their passing looked really bad (only 72% completions) and their pressing was completely uncoordinated. Neither team really threatened the goal and Hungary converted right away on its first big chance. A second yellow for Austria shortly after that meant that the game was pretty much done around the 65min mark. They still opened up way too much after the first goal and that second goal could cost them big time in this tight group. Austria already has its backs against the wall against Portugal and needs an absolute performance explosion. Hungary can probably seal the surprise with a point against Iceland. I got this one absolutely wrong.

Portugal vs Iceland 1-1

One more surprise in this group but this wasn’t a deserved one. Portugal played pretty well in my opinion and was looking in cruise control after the first half. Iceland got the equalizer pretty much out of the blue and then defended bravely until the end. In all fairness, Portugal looked way too tame in front of goal when they needed to score and that has been their eternal problem. Ronaldo doesn’t really look in form either. Iceland was hoofing mostly long balls forwarded as expected and it will be interesting to see how they fare when they need to play for the win. A lucky draw and Portugal will still feel ok about itself after Austria’s slip but the other two matches won’t be an easy matchup for them either. Iceland has the big one against Hungary coming up and they need to pick up points there to stay in the race.

 

 

Belgium vs Ireland

 

 

I talked about how Belgium have almost the best players in the tournament but their tactics can be really dodgy and they confirmed that in a really bad way. Lots of long balls to Lukaku and shooting from distance seemed the way to go in the first match. I have no idea why they started Fellaini who I do not rate at all and think is a terribly overrated player who cannot do almost anything at a high level besides heading. Wilmots talked about making “2 to 10 changes” and he said he’ll need players between the lines, meaning Fellaini could (and should be dropped). Still, I don’t expect Wilmots to become a class manager overnight and they’ll likely operate in a vaguely similar way again.

Ireland looked pretty good against Ibra and were well on their way to winning the match before dropping too deep and dropping two points. I think they should enjoy this matchup. Technically it’s a non-runner but Ireland will keep up easily in terms of physicality with Belgium. Meaning they will happily defend those long balls to Lukaku. Belgium’s defense gave away an easy goal to Italy and although Ireland isn’t a force up front by any means, they punished Germany in qualifications twice for giving away easy goals. At the same time Belgium failed to beat Wales twice in qualis and Wales is a pretty good proxy for that match. This could easily go the way of Ukraine vs NIR but I’m staying with the safe option of the under.

 

 

Belgium vs Ireland Under 3,5 – 1 Unit@ 1,23 (5Dimes)

 

 

Iceland vs Hungary

 

 

I’m not even gonna pretend I have some amazing insider infos on these teams, I can just give my impressions here. I talked in my recaps about how both teams did not really threaten the opposition goal despite both scoring. This has low-quality written all over it and is screaming draw. Hungary will be happy to take a point and pretty much seal qualification and Iceland wouldn’t be disappointed either with a position to still qualify in their final match. I guess Iceland will leave the ball to Hungary and as decent as Hungary looked on the ball in the first match, they are still a low-quality side and that will show tomorrow. Expect an Italy-Sweden type of match here. Appearantly both times making no changes and I don’t see a reason why they should.

 

 

Hungary vs Iceland Under 3,5 – 1 Unit@1,18 (5Dimes)

 

 

Portugal vs Austria

 

 

Quite a big one for both teams but clearly bigger for Austria. They disappointed big time in their first match against Hungary and were really stupid for conceding that second goal with the current qualification system. They will have to replace to vital players in Junuzovic (injured) and Dragovic (suspended).  Prödl will likely start for Dragovic will Junuzovic could be replaced by Schöpf, who is a fringe player at Schalke and not even close in his level to Junuzovic. Ilsanker and Sabitzer might be other options, don’t really know either player but it could mean that Koller shifts Alaba into a more offensive role. Seriously doubt that though since Alaba is a fullback/defensive midfielder and Koller will be happy to take a point here and stay in contention. Austria looked quite shocking in their first match and I’m wondering how they will adapt here. They will likely be happy to leave more possession to Portugal but they are not really a classic counterattacking side and quite frankly couldn’t even handle Hungary controlling the ball. It’s a bit funny writing this as my writeup for them was really positive and I will be happy to eat my words after the match, but they will need to step it up a good two levels from their last match.

Portugal looked fairly ok against Iceland, they conceded a dumb goal 5 mins into the second half and didn’t create a ton of good chances after that. In all honesty though, I’ve seen them play much worse against lesser sides and they just match up really badly against teams that like to get men behind the ball. They might change it up a bit and Sanches and Quaresma seem to be options for the second match. I guess they will be the more proactive side again but I talked about how they often struggle to break down teams early. Austria should be happy to sit back and play for a draw in the beginning, if only to gain some confidence. I was going back and forth on this and I really think Portugal win this but I just don’t feel comfortable with pulling the trigger at these odds. Ronaldo looks not really in form and he is their main goalscoring threat so I’d rather pass.  

[IanH]

Romania v Albania

Another narrow win at Euros

 

The folly of the circumstances in which Albania could qualify for the knockout stages of Euro 2016 despite losing their first two matches is highlighted by their final matches with Romania. It gets a little complicated but if Albania win this fixture in Lyons on Sunday they could progress as one of the four best teams who finished third in the six groups. The format has created cautious, defensive football especially from teams who have won their first match knowing another point would suffice.

To read a full preview for this match please visit: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/football/euro-2016/romania-v-albania-another-narrow-win-at-euros-2016061801

 

[silver fox]

Belgium v Irish Rep:

Belgium were disappointing in their first game against Italy and need to win this game to keep in with a chance of a top 2 finish to avoid the best 3rd place team lottery.

Ireland were unlucky not to come away from the Swedish game with only a point having by far the best chances in the game. I cannot see Belgium putting in another tepid performance and with the talented squad they have should just have a little bit too much quality for the Irish in what I believe will be a very close game.

In 7 previous matches between the two sides the Irish have yet to record a win though of those 7 games 5 have been draws. The last meeting between the two sides was back in 1997 when Belgium won 2-1 at home in a World Cup Qualifier and I can see a similar result today.

[IanH]

Switzerland v France

Clear daylight for group leaders

 

The match between France and Switzerland in Lille on Sunday will decide which team wins Group A and plays one of the third placed sides in the round of the last 16. The bizarre format of the tournament means that two thirds of the matches are required to eliminate one third of the teams. France and Switzerland have already done enough to progress but the runner-up in the group plays the second best team in Group C which could be Northern Ireland but its still if, buts and maybes. Spain have qualified for the knockout stages without conceding a goal.

To read the full preview please visit: http://punts.pl/8BxqBc

 

Edited June 18, 2016 by IanH

[StevieDay1983]

Russia vs Wales: Coleman's Dragons face all-or-nothing clash in group finale

Wales will go into their last Group B match against Russia this Monday night in an 8pm kick off knowing that a point should be enough to seal their spot in the 2nd Round. Russia will need to secure a win to stand any chance of progressing as they remain on just 1 point after two group games and rooted to the bottom of the Group B table.

Selections

Asian Handicap: Russia 0 @ 1.85 with bet365

Anytime Scorer: Gareth Bale @ 2.62 with BetVictor

Full Article: http://punts.pl/NCRLEt

[StevieDay1983]

Slovakia vs England: Will Hodgson rest stars in key Group B clash?

England will play Slovakia in their final Group B match this Monday night in an 8pm kick off. Slovakia know that a draw could be enough to see them progress to the 2nd Round but a win could potentially see them qualify as group winners. England are all but through already and could see this as an ideal opportunity to give game time to players that have yet to start a game.

Selections

Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 2.20 with Coral

Anytime Scorer: Daniel Sturridge @ 2.50 with bet365

Full Article: http://punts.pl/6RD8XD

[soccerstat]

Do you know?
Austria defeated Portugal 9-1 in Vienna in qualifying for the 1954 World Cup.
And more at:

https://todaysoccermatches.blogspot.com

Look for the "H2H Highlights".

[Smartsportsincome]

Thoughts on today's matches....

 

 

France vs Switzerland


The last matchday has a lot of moving parts so I feel like tips could be even tougher to come by than usual. This match is a good example. Both teams can seal their current spots with a draw and that is definitely a possibility especially given the way the tournament has played out so far. Switzerland will be content playing the runner-up from Group C, which looks like it’s going to be Poland. They will try to score but not at all cost and will probably rather want to avoid falling into third place. Behrami will most probably sit, he’s a booking away from a suspension and is carrying a knock. Embolo could get the nod ahead of Seferovic, whose finishing hasn’t been great so far. I think that could provide Switzerland with a spark. Embolo is physically strong and has good technique and the French defense hasn’t looked all that settled so far.
France have edged two games so far and it’s anyone’s guess whether they will play with more freedom in this one. They will probably restore the 433 from their opening fixture but will rest a couple of players with injury concerns (Evra) or facing suspension (Kante, Giroud). Matuidi seems like he could be dropped as well and the French midfield could have a more technical touch to it this time. Pogba and Griezmann will return and Gignac will likely start up front, so I guess they will try to play out wide but not look to put the ball in the air as much this time. 
Odds on France went up a lot from the 1,65 they started at the beginning of the tournament and that’s hardly a surprise. I was contemplating France above 2 but the market made the decision for me. I have a gut feeling this could have more goals than we expect. France were somewhat lucky to concede only once and Switzerland should have at least one more goal on their scoresheet. Odds on over 2 look juicy but it’s really a mug’s game to make a call with the distorted qualification system. France will certainly chase the game if they go behind and in this case I would say the game is likely to go over. Switzerland will have an eye at Romania’s game and might choose to tighten up after conceding, depending on the score of the other match. The only way I could see an angle opening up would be with France trailing at half-time. In case this is drawing around the 70min mark, I think we are likely to see a draw. Either way, too many moving parts and I’ll avoid this one.


Romania vs Albania


This match is thankfully a bit easier regarding qualification. Romania need to win to put themselves in a good spot to go through, Albania needs a win to have any chance but is chasing a -3 goal difference and is realistically eliminated. Romania will need to force play for the first time and I’m curious to see how they’ll do. If qualifications are anything to go by, this could very well be another stalemate despite both teams needing the W. They needed two penalties to score and looked ok in attack so far but this is a whole different situation for them and I am unsure how much they can go out of their tactical comfort zone to win this. Albania will do what they did for the first two matches and would be happy to get any kind of result at their first major tournament. I already have an interest in this one, needing Albania to come bottom which is essentially a double chance on Romania. Thus, I’ve no interest to get further involved but if this match is drawing around the 60min mark I would lay the draw here. Romania will need to win and will have to open up at some point to get a result. Switzerland probably won’t be up big so Romania will be chasing the score regardless of what happens at FRA vs SWI.

[IanH]

Ukraine v Poland 

Result can go against FIFA rankings grain

 

Northern Ireland players will be monitoring other results to get an indication of how many points will be required to progress to the next stage of Euro 2016 as one of the best third-placed teams. They will be hoping Ukraine don’t upset the odds by beating Poland in the third phase of matches as their last fixture is against Germany, the world champions. Poland need to win this fixture by a difference of one more goal compared to Germany to win the group and play a third place team in the round of the last 16. They are good enough to beat Ukraine but Germany can take maximum points from their last group match against the Irish.

To read a full preview of this match please visit: http://punts.pl/tm2QVz

 

Edited June 20, 2016 by IanH

[IanH]

Croatia v Spain

Rare goal bonanza in the tournament

Spain have a goal difference of four after two matches at Euro 2016 and have yet to concede a goal. They can improve in the first area and lose that record in the second by beating Croatia in a relatively high-scoring fixture in Bordeaux on Tuesday. Sadly events off the field could dominate the news agenda as it has been reported that some of Croatia’s extreme supporters are planning some kind of disruption. That scenario would be a shame as the fixture could potentially be the best of the tournament so far and several goals are expected.

To read a full preview of this match please visit: http://punts.pl/7OWCXr

 

 

[IanH]

Czech Republic v Turkey

More goals in reverse group decider fixture

Turkey could still qualify for the knockout stages of Euro 2016 despite losing their first two matches and not scoring a goal. The minimum requirement for that scenario is beating CzechRepublic in Lens on Tuesday. However, with the joint worst goal difference of any of the 24 teams in the tournament a win by several goals would be required and Czech Republic are average but not that poor. A more likely outcome is Turkey exiting the competition with no points as CzechRepublic are tipped to win this match.   

To read the full preview please visit: http://punts.pl/1CpUrM

 

[markus808]

Poland has a chance to win the Group C if they win and score at least 1 more goal than Germany (goal difference is +2 to Germany, +1 to Poland). Ukraine has showed lack of team spirit, 0 points and goal difference 0:4 means they are already packing bags, goals are likely. I expect RUS vs WAL style meltdown, whereas Northen Ireland vs Germany is more than likely to be tight game. NIR will fight for a point, Germany will also rest some players. 
1.5units Poland to win group C @ 5.5 betfair 

Edited June 21, 2016 by markus808

[Smartsportsincome]

Germany vs Northern Ireland 

 

It's been a very bumpy start for the Germans in the first two matches. Against Ukraine their defense looked leaky and they were lucky not to concede in the first half. That improved in the second match, also due to the factor that Poland was happy playing for a 0-0. In both matches their attack stalled a lot and I talked about how Germany looks like they want to play down the wings in attack but lack the necessary players to do so. Manager Löw wants to change up things today and is likely to make a few changes to his starting 11. Draxler will probably be dropped, Schweinsteiger could start but will at least be subbed on and Höwedes might be replaced to test a more attacking option at right back. The Germans have several options in attack. Gomez might get his first start and it is in all likelihood his last chance, if Löw does not start him tonight he will not opt to do so in the knockout stages. That would mean leaving Müller on the right and going with Schürrle on the left and is the more likely option if he wants to introduce a new RB (Kimmich for example). Alternatively, Müller might play up front and young Sane might get his chance on the right flank to provide some directness and dribbles into the box. Either way, Germany will have to be more incisive with their passing and display more urgency in the final third.

 

 

Northern Ireland is unlikely to change its ulta-defensive approach from the first two matches and even a narrow defeat will be very valueable for them as three points could easily be enough to make the knockout stages. Lafferty might be back in attack but I doubt that will make much of a difference as I can't see Northern Ireland making any efforts to get forward except on set-pieces. I think we got a very good impression of the (lamentable) mindset of some teams in their last match. Slovakia defended extremely deep yesterday and got undeservedly rewarded for a match they should have lost by 2+ in all fairness. This one is highly likely to be a carbon copy of last night's match, NIR will defend extremely deep and leave it to Germany to find any kind of space to push into. Even if they go down they will be happy to slam the door and preserve their goal difference, just in case. Thus I find some charm in Germany winning to nil. Switzerland and Slovakia were able to hold the big teams to goalless draws but they have a bit more quality and frankly were both pretty lucky to do so. At some point quality will prevail and I cannot see past Germany overcoming Northern Ireland tonight.

 

Germany to beat Northern Ireland to Nil - 1 Unit@1,85 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

Poland vs Ukraine

 

Some curious circumstances in this match. Poland is still playing for the group win, whereas Ukraine is already eliminated. The Poles disappointed me a bit so far. They came through a tough one against Northern Ireland but didn't really shine, and were happy to play unsurprisingly destructive and tame against Germany. Hard to argue with 4 points and secure qualification though and I expect them tonight to revert to their riskier nature of play and go for it more. Lewandowski got a fair bit of criticism at home for being somewhat "invisible" in his first two matches and I am sure he is eager to leave a bettter mark on tonight's match. Poland could rotate a bit tonight and might leave the booked Piszczek on the bench. Kapustka could make a return in the starting 11 and he looked lively against Northern Ireland. Fabianski hasn't been really tested yet in goal and I see him a fair bit worse than Szczesny and see Ukraine testing him with a few shots from distance. Ukraine are playing for pride only so their starting 11 is anyone's guess but I doubt they will leave their star wingers on the bench and are probably more motivated to not go out quite as embarassingly as Russia did yesterday.

 

I can see that this is a bit of a risky approach but I expect a little bit more action in that match than your average EURO 2016 sunday afternoon match. Poland should attack more, as they did in their first match, and Ukraine will be a bit more willing to commit men forward on their counterattacks than Northern Ireland were. This hasn't been a goal-heavy fixture over the years but due to the circumstances I think both manager's won't keep their teams on as a tight defensive leash as usual. One goal either way should open up this one and I like the odds on that.

 

 

Poland vs Ukraine Over 2 Goals - 1 Unit@1,94 (Pinnacle)

Edited June 21, 2016 by Smartsportsincome

[Fader]

I'm taking Poland to beat Ukraine tonight at 10/11 for obvious reasons I guess. Ukraine looking very poor and Poland looking solid in defense and having the far better team. But I'm also taking Turkey to win tonight against C.Republic. I think the price on offer (12/5) is far too big when you consider this turkish team has only lost to teams that have been probably the best attacking sides in the tournament. Czech are missing Rosicky tonight and he is very important for them, turkey to steal it.

Poland to beat Ukraine 10/11 Paddypower
Turkey to beat C.Republic 12/5 William Hill