French Open 2016

[four-leaf]

13 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Worth noting - Raonic was having issues with his leg (again) after his match against Martin. If you want to back him, it's worth waiting for the live betting and see if he's okay.

After Albert broke serve to 2-1 in first set I placed a bet on Albert. Milos does'nt look to great on clay no matter if he's got problems with his leg or not but it may have some impact. Thanks for the tip!

[bobix]

Hi folks,

Could you please tell me why Venus is such a "big" underdog against Bacsinszky (moreover the odds kept dropping for the Swiss)? Unfortunately I was not able to watch her with Cornet.. did she have any injury worries? If not, then I do not consider her odds fair. I am seriously considering +1.5 set handicap at 1.77 with Pinnacle, but first would like to gather some opinions

[CzechPunter]

1 hour ago, bobix said:

Hi folks,

Could you please tell me why Venus is such a "big" underdog against Bacsinszky (moreover the odds kept dropping for the Swiss)? Unfortunately I was not able to watch her with Cornet.. did she have any injury worries? If not, then I do not consider her odds fair. I am seriously considering +1.5 set handicap at 1.77 with Pinnacle, but first would like to gather some opinions

All about form I reckon, Bacszinsky has been crushing it on clay so far, losing only against Muguruza and Halep. Venus has also never been that special on clay and she's now losing to many weaker players than Timea. The odds are about right I'd say, Venus is capable of winning a set.

Meanwhile, I'm wondering whether I'll ever hit another bet, it's getting so ridiculous it's almost hysteric. Isner having break points AND set points in the first set, of course he loses 0-3.

[CzechPunter]

Back Ernests Gulbis to beat David Goffin for a 7/10 stake at 3.40 with BetVictor

Back David Ferrer to beat Tomas Berdych for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Bet365

Gulbis should have a good chance provided that he keeps his unforced errors in check, Goffin seems to have issues with bigger hitting in these conditions. Meanwhile, I'll also keep on opposing Berdych, he was lucky to get past Cuevas, but Ferrer will be a step up in every single department.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/CXOHLJ

[maletaja]

Ferrer-Berdich hard bet ...H2h 7-6 last meeting Berdich won. Altough Ferrer should have some tiny edge. But i dont know is it enough for betting...dont know

[owenclass]

Day nine

David Ferrer vs Tomas Berdych

Over 40.5 games 10/11 paddy power

This match is too close to call, two players who are evenly matched and a head to head record which is close so this match must to a fifth set. Im hoping this goes all the way to cover my bet and Ferrer should edge it but his opponent is dangerous and will hope to make it tough for him

And i fancy Venus to win tomorrow at 7/4 as she wants to face her sister at this French Open

Edited May 30, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Back Andy Murray (-4.5) to beat Richard Gasquet for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365

Gasquet a bit overrated here imo. Fair play to him for beating Kyrgios and Nishikori, but this will be a big step up and we all know how tight the Frenchman can get in important matches, so I very much fancy Murray covering the 4.5 games line.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/2lfLyc

[owenclass]

Day ten

Richard Gasquet to beat Andy Murray at 5/1 is a good bet

Edited May 31, 2016 by owenclass

[clubgowi]

French Open: Stanislas Wawrinka - Albert Ramos

We sided with defending champion Stan Wawrinka through the quarters/semis and final last year, when he played out of his skin and beat Federer, Tsonga and Djokovic, he was a man on a mission and had promised something "special" at Roland Garros for months in advance. That is covered in my preview of his match with JWT and you can read or re-read those notes at the very foot of this email. I guess he is not quite as motivated this year, that would be close to impossible, but winning major titles is addictive and it is hard to give up something you own without a fight ! The draw has been kind and he will certainly not fear Ramos-Vinolas today and he cannot face Novak until the final.

No one has been more shocked by the progress of Ramos-Vinolas than the man himself and the 28 yo Spaniard has won a lot of fans by his open and honest interviews in Paris, he demolished Milos Raonic in the last 16, losing only 10 games. He has a "suspect" backhand and was supposed to get nervous, but showed few signs of either in an "easy win". However, Raonic did not give ARV the chance to get nervous by putting any real pressure on him and was too impatient to turn defence into attack and made far too many unforced errors in making the transition. Also, Ramos is a leftie and Raonic is 39-14 this year and 282-141 lifetime on Tour, but 4-4 and 29-25 respectively against left handed players and is clearly not as comfortable playing "southpaws".

Wawrinka is 18-5 since the start of 2014 versus lefties and 8-3 in the last 12 months, with all three losses coming against his nemesis in Rafael Nadal , last of those wins was just 14 days ago, when he actually beat Ramos 6-1 6-1 in Geneva. The Spanish player only won 25 points, just 13 of 32 on serve and he is very much, despite what he has achieved here, a journeyman player and in four previous visits to RG had only reached the second round ( and no further) once and at 28 yo he is not going to find huge long term improvement and sooner or later and it will be sooner, he will awake from this dream !

Having discussed how poorly he played against Wawrinka in Geneva, lets look at a h2h game in which he played well, the two met in the opening round at the US Open last year, Ramos played above himself, served well and Stan was a touch sub par, but the Swiss man still won by five games and in straight sets. He is 6-0 in h2h matches, 4-0 on clay, it can be close, but Ramos will have to again raise his game and Wawrinka have a bad day and for both to happen seems unlikely.

Stanislas Wawrinka -7 games 1.95 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro

 

[potus]

I think we have to leave the betting alone with the weather the way it is, surely it's turning things into far too much of a lottery to be betting on.

[delfino]

Yeah, i think is the worst RG for years. Not only because of the weather, but also there is no any quality in most of matches. I like the chances of WAW to repeat his miracle. His game is elegant and he represents the exception of what i said. In women i like the chances of both Muguruza and Keys. Thnx

[CzechPunter]

Agree with these sentiments, painful to see both Radwanska and Halep self-destruct in such a way.

[owenclass]

Day eleven

Shelby Rogers vs Garbine Muguruza

Over 19.5 games 10/11 paddy power

I have been really impressed with Rogers in this tournament and i think she could give her opponent a tough match. I do expect her opponent to win as she is favourite but it wont be easy 

Edited June 1, 2016 by owenclass

[radicaly]

Yes, Indeed... Horrible RG so far in terms of bets and tennis.. Haven't seen a great game since the beginning.. 

So many forfeits + surprises so far.. It's ridiculous..

Anyway, small bets for me for today: 

Svitolina first set @4.5 vs. S. Williams (3 pts) at pinnacle. + Svitolina (-1,5 sets) (1pts)  @14 on pinnacle
Considering the recent conditions + motivation issues with all these games postponed, Svitolina might be able to win the first set and surprise Williams.
Since the beginning of the tournament, she's flying (6/1 6/3 vs. Cristea, 6/3 6/0 vs. Townsend, 6/4 6/4 vs. Ivanovic). Of course Williams is another level but who knows.
Small bets.

 

[TheBeast]

19 hours ago, potus said:

I think we have to leave the betting alone with the weather the way it is, surely it's turning things into far too much of a lottery to be betting on.

Exactly it's been wierd right..... Especially when your money is locked on a bet for 2 days..... I had Halep handicap against Stosur which she looked comfortable to cover when the play stopped.... 2 days later she blows it away.... Although good thing was Pironkova winning against Radwanska

[bobix]

On 2016. 05. 29., CzechPunter said:

All about form I reckon, Bacszinsky has been crushing it on clay so far, losing only against Muguruza and Halep. Venus has also never been that special on clay and she's now losing to many weaker players than Timea. The odds are about right I'd say, Venus is capable of winning a set.

Meanwhile, I'm wondering whether I'll ever hit another bet, it's getting so ridiculous it's almost hysteric. Isner having break points AND set points in the first set, of course he loses 0-3.

Thanks for your input, mate! Glad I took Putintseva instead.

[TheBeast]

Well what a time for bet365 to send me some loyalty bonus  Just when Muguruza is back in riveting form of last year's Wimbledon and it looks like the final is poised to be another showdown between Serena and Garbińe.... Been following her since last year's Wimbledon and she really impressed with the vain fightback in the finals in the second set when she had probably lost.... She has got all the credentials to beat Serena and now that Serena isn't in her form of 2015 the result can certainly come.... I was eager to pick her up a bit earlier but she wasn't really going on in 2016 until now.... And also the loyalty bonus means I have nothing to lose and everything to gain.... But I'll still take the each way bet just to ensure some free returns

Garbińe Muguruza to win Roland Garros @ 3.25 E/W on bet365

Good luck my friends

[CzechPunter]

Back N.Djokovic/T.Berdych - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365

Back Tie-break in Match - No (Goffin/Thiem) for a 7/10 stake at 2.37 with Bet365

I was shocked to see Berdych absolutely bombing it against Ferrer and that same level of play will give him a chance against Djokovic, so I like the sets overs at odds of 2.50. The H2H between him and the Serb might look absolutely awful and it is, but it's not that bad if you look at the clay court record only, so that should give the Czech some hope. I also like the bet on there not being a TB in Goffin/Thiem - neither guy has a particularly strong serve and the conditions should help breaks as well, so 6-2/6-1 sets look much more likely that 7-5/7-6 ones.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/vnnG0Z

[owenclass]

Day twelve

David Goffin to beat Dominic Thiem 7/4  paddy power

Over 39.5 games 10/11 paddy power

This is one of the biggest matches these two are going to play in their careers as it is a chance of reaching a semi final of a Grand slam and also probably their favourite as they love the clay. Thiem during this tournament has been great and he really looks like a top ten player, while his opponent has really improved as player as his is capable of winning one of the big ones. I think Thiem is the slight favourite here but his opponent is one tough player especially on his favourite surface so this should be a cracking match

Edited June 2, 2016 by owenclass

[TheBeast]

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back N.Djokovic/T.Berdych - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365

Back Tie-break in Match - No (Goffin/Thiem) for a 7/10 stake at 2.37 with Bet365

I was shocked to see Berdych absolutely bombing it against Ferrer and that same level of play will give him a chance against Djokovic, so I like the sets overs at odds of 2.50. The H2H between him and the Serb might look absolutely awful and it is, but it's not that bad if you look at the clay court record only, so that should give the Czech some hope. I also like the bet on there not being a TB in Goffin/Thiem - neither guy has a particularly strong serve and the conditions should help breaks as well, so 6-2/6-1 sets look much more likely that 7-5/7-6 ones.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/vnnG0Z

Berdych has been really surprising throughout the tournament.... I thought he would lose to Cuevas but he didn't... Then against Ferrer he doesn't lose a single set.... Hopefully he comes with similar attitude against Nole.... He's got all the weapons to atleast take a couple of sets from the Serb.... 

I will also take the games handicap at +7.5 games for Berdych along with over 3.5 sets.... 

Gud luck Czech.... 

[TheBeast]

4 hours ago, owenclass said:

Day twelve

David Goffin to beat Dominic Thiem 7/4  paddy power

Over 39.5 games 10/11 paddy power

This is one of the biggest matches these two are going to play in their careers as it is a chance of reaching a semi final of a Grand slam and also probably their favourite as they love the clay. Thiem during this tournament has been great and he really looks like a top ten player, while his opponent has really improved as player as his is capable of winning one of the big ones. I think Thiem is the slight favourite here but his opponent is one tough player especially on his favourite surface so this should be a cracking match

Thiem will probably win this but the games line looks good.... Will probably be a 4-5 sets match.... Thiem 3-1 looks most likely outcome but we never know with this years RG.... 

[CzechPunter]

Officially giving up on this event, just interest punts from now on. They've just suspended Djokovic-Berdych on the Serb's request (!) when the Czech was finally starting to get some momentum and wanted to play on. Ridiculous, as they let Goffin-Thiem to continue as well. Nice decision-making .

Edit: From 3-3 to 3-6 quickly after the resumption, just as Djokovic (and I guess also the organizers) wanted. Funny how Djokovic couldn't convince anyone to stop play in Rome, but he says one word in Paris and he's allowed to walk off.

[gettingfatter]

50 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Officially giving up on this event, just interest punts from now on. They've just suspended Djokovic-Berdych on the Serb's request (!) when the Czech was finally starting to get some momentum and wanted to play on. Ridiculous, as they let Goffin-Thiem to continue as well. Nice decision-making .

Edit: From 3-3 to 3-6 quickly after the resumption, just as Djokovic (and I guess also the organizers) wanted. Funny how Djokovic couldn't convince anyone to stop play in Rome, but he says one word in Paris and he's allowed to walk off.

As Tomas said, it's a circus.  The real grating thing with Djokovic is he doesn't need to be a petulant little bitch, just play the tennis and he will win but the moment he loses a few points he's throwing his racket at people and marching off court because he felt a drop of rain.  No respect for the rules and the umpire was pathetic in this instance.  That being said, TB didn't win the important points.  Had nearly as many break points as ND and lost 3-0.

[CzechPunter]

16 minutes ago, gettingfatter said:

As Tomas said, it's a circus.  The real grating thing with Djokovic is he doesn't need to be a petulant little bitch, just play the tennis and he will win but the moment he loses a few points he's throwing his racket at people and marching off court because he felt a drop of rain.  No respect for the rules and the umpire was pathetic in this instance.  That being said, TB didn't win the important points.  Had nearly as many break points as ND and lost 3-0.

Exactly, my words. Pathetic umpiring and also pathetic behaviour from the Serb, he was even doing crazy stuff against Darcis despite leading comfortably like today. TB lost the crucial points and he deserved to lose based on that, but it's just unreal these off-play things. Of course, Djokovic then celebrates the win with a ball-boy and gets good press for what a great character he is .

[TheBeast]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Exactly, my words. Pathetic umpiring and also pathetic behaviour from the Serb, he was even doing crazy stuff against Darcis despite leading comfortably like today. TB lost the crucial points and he deserved to lose based on that, but it's just unreal these off-play things. Of course, Djokovic then celebrates the win with a ball-boy and gets good press for what a great character he is .

That is exactly why I like to call him Djokobitch

[TheBeast]

21 hours ago, TheBeast said:

Well what a time for bet365 to send me some loyalty bonus  Just when Muguruza is back in riveting form of last year's Wimbledon and it looks like the final is poised to be another showdown between Serena and Garbińe.... Been following her since last year's Wimbledon and she really impressed with the vain fightback in the finals in the second set when she had probably lost.... She has got all the credentials to beat Serena and now that Serena isn't in her form of 2015 the result can certainly come.... I was eager to pick her up a bit earlier but she wasn't really going on in 2016 until now.... And also the loyalty bonus means I have nothing to lose and everything to gain.... But I'll still take the each way bet just to ensure some free returns

Garbińe Muguruza to win Roland Garros @ 3.25 E/W on bet365

Good luck my friends

Gosh I so hope Putintseva somehow does a Kerber today..... Serena is more pathetic today that that AO final... Giving away 6 games worth of unforced errors in first set alone.... Fingers crossed

[NoOne]

What do you think of match Murray - Wawrinka? To me, Murray closer to victory. : D

[CzechPunter]

Too bad Putintseva didn't win, had a real chance there and I liked her attitude as well!

I'm just wondering - had Djokovic hit the linesman with the racquet here (https://twitter.com/Eurosport_UK/status/738353354749841408), would the umpire disqualify him as per the rules or would the tough conditions get blamed? I think that I know the answer - although, to be fair, it's better to get hit by a racquet in a situation like this than to face Nalbandian's wrath .

[CzechPunter]

2 minutes ago, NoOne said:

What do you think of match Murray - Wawrinka? To me, Murray closer to victory. : D

Murray the favourite for me as well, but only a very marginal one. He'll need to channel his inner Clayray in order to win.

[CzechPunter]

Back N.Djokovic/D.Thiem - Over 3.5 sets for a 3/10 stake at 2.20 with Bet365

Back S.Wawrinka/A.Murray - Over 39.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.74 with Unibet

Just interest stakes, but I think that we'll see at least four sets in both semis. Thiem is just too good at the moment to lose in three imo - I would even back him outright, but Djokovic will probably have a big edge in the fitness department if the match goes to the distance, so that's out. Meanwhile, Wawrinka and Murray can go either way, but a 3-0 win for either looks extremely unlikely. Stranger things have happened in this RG, however, so I'm already looking forward to seeing Thiem beating Murray in three sets on Sunday.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/EPG6yF