French Open 2016

[CzechPunter]

1 hour ago, astute said:

Czech who would you say has a genuine stronger chance garcia lopez or razzano in her match?

When you put it like that the answer is obvious, Razzano, but the odds are also accordingly lower. If you think that both are worth chancing, just split your intended stake and bet on both I reckon. Given what you've said yesterday, this seems like the best approach, better than ignoring your two gut feeling bets and going for a third one instead .

[astute]

Cheers Czech. I have gone for Garcia Lopez.  Fingers crossed.

[CzechPunter]

These two losses bring my YTD total to -89 pts, but that's actually not the worst downswing I've ever had over the many years. Lots of re-building ahead for the rest of the season though .

[CzechPunter]

Back Gilles Simon (-1.5 sets) to beat Viktor Troicki for a 7/10 stake at 1.69 with Unibet

Back Andrej Martin - Over 9.5 games for a 6/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Back Andrej Martin (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic for a 5/10 stake at 3.75 with Paddy Power

Simon is 12-0 against Troicki in terms of sets, so I reckon that he's going to beat him easily again - he might not be in the best of forms at the moment, but Troicki hasn't done much apart from beating Dimitrov recently either. Apart from that, I'll be backing Andrej Martin somewhat heavily, as I think that he's a bit underrated for unfair reasons. I rate him fairly highly in terms of talent and skills, it's just that his career has been getting constantly derailed by various issues. He should draw inspiration from the 3-0 win against Pouille and he's faced Raonic before, so he shouldn't be over-awed either, which could all easily lead to him being more competitive than the odds suggest.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/nppY4C

[owenclass]

Day six

Nick Kyrgios vs Richard Gasquet

Over 40.5 games 4/5 paddy power

These matches are always interesting between these two and this one i think will be a long one with maybe four or five sets as we will see a lot of rallies and maybe a few tie breaks in the match

Edited May 27, 2016 by owenclass

[TheBeast]

5 hours ago, owenclass said:

Day six

Nick Kyrgios vs Richard Gasquet

Over 40.5 games 4/5 paddy power

These matches are always interesting between these two and this one i think will be a long one with maybe four or five sets as we will see a lot of rallies and maybe a few tie breaks in the match

I am thinking on similar lines but instead took over 3.5 sets as Kyrgios is more than capable of winning a set or two by 3+ games.... Gud luck by the way may we both win

[TheBeast]

Today's value bet seems to be Teymuraz Gabashvili @ 2.37 on bet365 v John Isner. Both Isner and Gabashvili have had comfortable victories against their respective opponents but Gabashvili has been in better form as he has faced tougher opponents than Isner has and dominated them. But more resounding are the H2H stats between these two. Overall it is 2-1 Gabashvili, on clay it is 1-1 but last year Gabashvili got a rather comfortable victory in straight sets over Isner. Add to this the unreliable current form of Isner and the confidence of Gabashvili and I think we have a winning bet at our hands. 

But as always my inexperience in the betting world always seeks confidence and advice from my fellow bettors. So, your thoughts my friends? 

[TheBeast]

9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

These two losses bring my YTD total to -89 pts, but that's actually not the worst downswing I've ever had over the many years. Lots of re-building ahead for the rest of the season though .

Don't be too hard on yourself Czech. The tennis season's been tough on us bettors since February. One good tournament and the next few tournaments we are blowing away everything we've won. Gud luck mate. 

[CzechPunter]

3 hours ago, TheBeast said:

Today's value bet seems to be Teymuraz Gabashvili @ 2.37 on bet365 v John Isner. Both Isner and Gabashvili have had comfortable victories against their respective opponents but Gabashvili has been in better form as he has faced tougher opponents than Isner has and dominated them. But more resounding are the H2H stats between these two. Overall it is 2-1 Gabashvili, on clay it is 1-1 but last year Gabashvili got a rather comfortable victory in straight sets over Isner. Add to this the unreliable current form of Isner and the confidence of Gabashvili and I think we have a winning bet at our hands. 

But as always my inexperience in the betting world always seeks confidence and advice from my fellow bettors. So, your thoughts my friends? 

I was thinking the odds are a touch high there as well, haven't seen Isner recently though, but the H2H is intriguing to say the least.

[TheBeast]

39 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I was thinking the odds are a touch high there as well, haven't seen Isner recently though, but the H2H is intriguing to say the least.

Hopefully this will bring me some money mate..... Thnx for the input... 

[clubgowi]

French Open: Strycova - Radwanska

Agnieszka Radwanska beat a very nervous looking Caroline Garcia comfortably in R2 and looks to have arrived here in good shape. Ahead of that match I wrote about her untapped talent on the surface ........ "That is been the case in three previous h2h matches with Agnie, which the Polish superstar leads 2-1, with all going to three sets and there has barely been a cigarette paper between them in those matches. This will be just Radwanska's second outdoor clay match of the season and it is fair to say that she has underachieved in Paris compared to the other slams, especially given that she won a singles and doubles tournament here as a junor. She has lost to Annika Beck and Ajla Tomlihjanovic in the last two years and at least subconsciously, I suspect her attention is already on the grass and US hardcourt campaigns ahead. She has the potential to go deep in RG, but it is early that she is most suspect and I expect Garcia to push her all the way today for a fourth time. "

H2h wise she leads BZS 4-0 and has won all eight sets played, despite all being on hard courts that gives Radwanska a big mental advantage and there is a good chance that the Czech player already feels she has surpassed expectations here, having lost in R1 at Roland Garros in her last eight apperances. If we remove Madrid (which is not really clay and is at "altitude") from the stats, she is 0-8 , winning just a single set in Premier and slam events on clay against top 20 ranked players and is 19-35 lifetime in slams against top 100 players.


Agnieszka Radwanska to win 2-0 in sets 1.98 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro

 

[radicaly]

2 days without any big bets.. Just small stake not to be mentioned here.

For today: 

Safarova (-3,5) to beat Stosur @1.990 at pinnacle (6 pts)

First of all, Safarova is at 10-3 vs. Stosur and unbeaten on Clay in 3 games. It was 3 times in a row on a three setters and 2 times she could cover the 3,5 handicap. I'm confident that she will cover it this time. RG is the garden of Safarova. 

Safarova is on fire conceding only 6 games so far in 2 games. Even if Diatchenko and Golubic are not top class players, I've watched the game and she was 100% under control.
Safarova won Prague tournament 1 month ago (beating Stosur in final by the way) before being disappointing in Madrid (walk over) and Roma (losing to M. Doi).

Stosur is a strong player and has a strong season on clay so far. However, she barely beats better ranked player than her.. She lost 6-2 6-0 against Halep in Madrid 1 month ago.
 

Good luck all.

[CzechPunter]

Give me a break with these results 0_o. Gasquet beating Kyrgios 3-0? Nishikori needing five sets against Verdasco? Simon losing against Troicki? Kvitova double-bageled against Rogers? A minefield if there has ever been one - not sure how anybody's reading this, at least Martin covered the games line.

[CzechPunter]

Back Pablo Cuevas to beat Tomas Berdych for a 7/10 stake at 2.37 with BetVictor

Back Ernests Gulbis to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 7/10 stake at 2.80 with BetVictor

Fancy these two underdogs tomorrow, both Berdych and Tsonga look shaky at the moment, while Cuevas is always dedicated and Gulbis is a man on a mission at the moment by the looks of things. Not much interesting in the H2H records, Cuevas leads 1-0 over Berdych (although it was a questionable results), while Tsonga leads Gulbis 3-2, but the differences between the two pairs are just minimal imo, so the bigger odds are worth a shot.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/JmUsK5

[four-leaf]

Richard Gasquet (+3.5) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 7/10 stake at 1.98 with Pinnacle

The head to head is something to mention as it's 6-2 in favor of Richard and he's lost the last two on clay in straight sets just before RG. Seems like Kei is the better player of the two on clay but on all other surfaces Richard has won and the meeting in Paris masters last season I don't count. I know this is a big risk but I'm willing to take it since Richard has been playing the better tennis so far this tournament. He's capable of playing great tennis on clay and this will most likely be a close match so I rather go with the underdog handicap price then anything else.

Monica Puig to beat Madison Keys for a 7/10 stake at 3.32 with Pinnacle

Monica has beaten Madison twice on clay in straight sets and once in her only title run in Strasbourg 2014 in the semis. This looks like a match where Monica will once again be the better player on this specific surface. Acctually one stat that I feel like I have to point out is the fact that Madison has made 36 unforced errors so far in her two matches in RG and still she's won it by 6-3 6-2 both times probably because she's faced the right opposition that has not been able to punish her for all the errors. She also has come up with 49 winners and all this with many unforced errors and winners is so typical for Madison. It's her style and it does'nt work when playing on clay against such a good clay player like Monica. 36 unforced errors is a lot when you win two matches by 6-3 6-2 and that's something Monica can take advantage of.

Dominika Cibulkova to beat Carla Suárez Navarro for a 7/10 stake at 2.42 with Pinnacle

Seems like Dominika is back at her best again. She's been doing good work so far this season working her way back up the rankings and I see no reason why she can't be able to beat Carla again. The head to head is 3-1 in favor of Dominika with all the meetings happening in 2014 and 2015 on hard and Carla won last time in Moscow but Dominika plays better now then she did at that time in Moscow. I think it's time for Dominika to go deep in a slam again and by that I mean her chances of reaching the RG quarters since after this match she's up against either Yulia Putintseva or Karin Knapp and in the quarters most likely Serena. Go Dominika! If it's anything to go by Dominika has made a little fewer unforced errors then Carla comparing them by their two matches played so far and the one who wins this is the player who manages two keep their unforced errors to a minimum.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Pablo Cuevas to beat Tomas Berdych for a 7/10 stake at 2.37 with BetVictor

Back Ernests Gulbis to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 7/10 stake at 2.80 with BetVictor

Fancy these two underdogs tomorrow, both Berdych and Tsonga look shaky at the moment, while Cuevas is always dedicated and Gulbis is a man on a mission at the moment by the looks of things. Not much interesting in the H2H records, Cuevas leads 1-0 over Berdych (although it was a questionable results), while Tsonga leads Gulbis 3-2, but the differences between the two pairs are just minimal imo, so the bigger odds are worth a shot.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/JmUsK5

I'll take Cuevas, thank you!

[nickel1]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Pablo Cuevas to beat Tomas Berdych for a 7/10 stake at 2.37 with BetVictor

Back Ernests Gulbis to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 7/10 stake at 2.80 with BetVictor

Fancy these two underdogs tomorrow, both Berdych and Tsonga look shaky at the moment, while Cuevas is always dedicated and Gulbis is a man on a mission at the moment by the looks of things. Not much interesting in the H2H records, Cuevas leads 1-0 over Berdych (although it was a questionable results), while Tsonga leads Gulbis 3-2, but the differences between the two pairs are just minimal imo, so the bigger odds are worth a shot.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/JmUsK5

Will follow on Gulbis,odds look high.

[owenclass]

Day seven

Alexander Zverev vs Dominic Thiem

Over 35.5 games 4/5 paddy power

So we have the youngster against a player who has improved so much this season and i think he will to good against the young player this time but i have a feeling he may win a set

Edited May 28, 2016 by owenclass

[TheBeast]

Yesterday was a bummer..... Gabashvili lost a close tie break and then won two straight sets in scintillating fashion where he broke Isner thrice... The bet looked great and the in play odds after set 3 were 1.2 Gabashvili v 4.5 Isner.... I thought lets take Isner just in case.... The devil within raises his ugly head and says "Shut up Gabashvili will do it easy"..... An hour later Isner is the winner

Thank goodness Wawrinka 3-0 bet evened out the losses and the IPL bet letting me make some good profit ultimately..... Need to think a bit differently in this tournament now....  

[enano21]

What do you think about Kasatkina against Bertens and Cibulkova against Carla Suarez Navarro?

I know Bertens came here with great form and she's already passed players like Kerber and Giorgi. But except Goerges, there wasn't any player worth to mention on her run in Nurnberg. Also Kerber couldn't find her form after AO title and Giorgi is always Giorgi with tons of unforced errors. On the other hand Kasatkina has one of the brightest future of the game. She has very mature and versatile baseline game. She can defend ver well but also can attack with that forehand. I expect a game with good defense by Kasatkina and a lot of mistakes by Bertens.

About the other game, I rate Cibulkova much higher than Navarro no matter ranking says. She comes here with Madrid final and that means a lot. Head to head also in favour of Cibulkova (3-1). I cannot understand why she is such an underdog here.

I'd like to hear your opinions as well. 

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, enano21 said:

What do you think about Kasatkina against Bertens and Cibulkova against Carla Suarez Navarro?

I know Bertens came here with great form and she's already passed players like Kerber and Giorgi. But except Goerges, there wasn't any player worth to mention on her run in Nurnberg. Also Kerber couldn't find her form after AO title and Giorgi is always Giorgi with tons of unforced errors. On the other hand Kasatkina has one of the brightest future of the game. She has very mature and versatile baseline game. She can defend ver well but also can attack with that forehand. I expect a game with good defense by Kasatkina and a lot of mistakes by Bertens.

About the other game, I rate Cibulkova much higher than Navarro no matter ranking says. She comes here with Madrid final and that means a lot. Head to head also in favour of Cibulkova (3-1). I cannot understand why she is such an underdog here.

I'd like to hear your opinions as well. 

I've already written about Dominika Cibulkova v Carla Suárez Navarro, check page 3.

[four-leaf]

Ana Ivanovic to beat Elina Svitolina for a 8/10 stake at 1.71 with Pinnacle

It's a commanding record in the head to head for Ana with 7-0 and only losing one set and never been close to losing a set to Elina on clay winning three times and twice in RG in 2014 and last season. Ana is defending points from the semis last season and I fully expect her to win this match again as she is the dominant player here.

[Lawrence0831]

Klepac A./Srebotnik V.S. Doi M./Osaka - Doi M./Osaka over 6.5 games @1.8 with Marathonbet

The booker prices Klepac A. / Srebotnik K. as the big favorite as low as 1.15 maybe because their opponents do not play doubles very often. But I believe Oaska’s big serve should help the team get more games than expected. Besides, the performance from Klepac A./Srebotnik is just mediocre this year.

[four-leaf]

Damn you Ana Ivanovic, I hate these unexpected results

[CzechPunter]

Worth noting - Raonic was having issues with his leg (again) after his match against Martin. If you want to back him, it's worth waiting for the live betting and see if he's okay.

[CzechPunter]

Back To Reach the Final - Agnieszka Radwanska for a 4/10 stake at 6.50 with Bet365

Back Elina Svitolina (+1.5 sets) to beat Serena Williams for a 7/10 stake at 3.00 with Unibet

Svitolina in some red-hot form at the moment and she's taken a set off Williams before, so the 3.00 for the set handicap looks worth taking to me, as does the 6.50 that's on offer for Radwanska to reach the finals. Knowing my luck at the moment, she's going to lose against Pironkova tomorrow, but she's looked rather good so far and she's not getting any attention for some reason. She still has the game, however, and she can certainly beat both Halep and Muguruza if it comes to that.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/lT0PrB

[CzechPunter]

Back John Isner (+2.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 7/10 stake at 2.30 with Unibet

Taking this instead of the overs, as Unibet have good retirement rules for plus set handicaps. In any case, to have Isner above evens to win a set against Murray on clay looks a touch off to me - Isner is far more capable than Karlovic on the surface. He doesn't have the variety that Stepanek has and he might not have the inspiration Bourgue had either, but he has enough weapons to trouble Murray and steal a set at some point.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/R04T2T

[owenclass]

Day eight

Kei Nishikori vs Richard Gasquet

Over 37.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I can see at least four sets in this match and these two are playing well and it will be a tough match for both of them Nishikori is favourite and i fancy him to win this but his opponent will at least win a set

Edited May 29, 2016 by owenclass

[maletaja]

Quote

Damn you Ana Ivanovic, I hate these unexpected results

Lol when i saw lines i couldnt believe, that market offers so "cheap" prize for Ana in spite of 7-0 H2H fact

But market is always smart

[maletaja]

I like Murray-Isner win. Isner is Murray bitch. I cant see him losing

And Pironkova- Radwanska. I think Pironkova gives bigger fight than market assumes so i like games +6.5 or +7.5