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Back Yaroslava Shvedova to beat Caroline Garcia for a 5/10 stake at 3.40 with BetVictor

Back Olga Govortsova to beat Timea Babos for a 4/10 stake at 4.33 with BetVictor

Back Teliana Pereira to beat Annika Beck for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Chancing both Shvedova and Govortsova in Strasbourg, shouldn't be without their chances and Garcia/Babos might have other priorities with the French Open next week as well. Apart from that, I'll also back Pereira against Beck for the second week in a row over in Nuremberg. Pereira won 2-0 in Rome last week, making the H2H record 4-1 - and that's something that I'm just not willing to ignore, especially since the defeat came via a retirement.

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Back Paul-Henri Mathieu to beat Hyeon Chung for a 7/10 stake at 1.56 with Unibet

Back Ilya Marchenko to beat Taylor Fritz for a 7/10 stake at 2.55 with Unibet

In Nice, I'll be taking two experienced clay courters against two youngsters that are still finding their way on the surface. Mathieu a big fav in my opinion, while Marchenko shouldn't be above 2.10 I'd say considering that Fritz is yet to make an impact on European clay.

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Back Victor Estrella to beat Joao Sousa for a 7/10 stake at 2.75 with Unibet

Can't see how Estrella is a 2.75 shot here, Sousa is on such a bumpy ride at the moment that he's just not a worthy favourite here. Estrella crushed Kudla in the first round, he's on more or less the same level as Sousa playing wise, and he's also one of those players that you rarely doubt in terms of motivation.

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Back Leonardo Mayer (+1.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Like these odds (most other bookies have the bet at 1.80), as Thiem might not be fully focused on this event, while Mayer means business by the looks of things, as he fought well in the first round. Moreover, he's yet to walk away empty-handed as far as his matches against Thiem are concerned - and the two have already met on four occasions.

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Andrey Rublev to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 2.62 with bet365

What an excellent price on Rublev. Ofcourse there are surely better prices to be found but I'll settle with this one and hope for a nice cashout. Andrey is the man to beat in these qualies. I don't know mutch about how Andrey or Jan-Lennard has been playing so far in the qualies but they both overcame some hurdles to get this far winning in deciders. Andrey beating Jan Satral ranked 205 and Jan-Lennard beating Benjamin Mitchell 238. Value is clearly with the younger russian in this one. It's more of a 50/50 match so the odds should be equal. I like the standard level of Andreys game and he will probably be a bigger star then Jan-Lennard in the future although he is not anywhere near starquality yet but his game is at the moment good enough to qualify for French open. The odds seems to be influated by the rankings in this one where Jan-Lennard is 102 and Andrey 182 but there is an 8 year age difference too so I would'nt read into their rankings at all since Andrey will most likely improve on that already this year I can imagine. Andreys career high is 154 reached 21st of mars this season and he is bound to improve on that. Anyway I'm taking Andrey here since that's where the value is.

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6 hours ago, astute said:

Cheers Czech. Read over the forum for a good few years but too lazy to register! Let's hope I get off to a good start. What is your opinion on my first selection? 

You did'nt ask me but since I also had a bet on Kristina since yesterday I think she was a great pick. She also had a 3-0 head2head advantage over Alison and they met twice last season where Kristina won both in straight sets and one of the matches where played in Strasbourg and now she's beaten Alison in Strasbourg twice. She struck two convincing winners in the tie-break today and that proved to be the difference.

Anyway I like...

Sloane Stephens (-3.5) to beat Pauline Parmentier for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with bet365

Sloane has an advantage in the head2head winning their only meeting in Miami 2012. Also in 2012 Sloane reached the semi of Strasbourg. I think she's got enough game for clay and will edge Parmentier in either 3 sets or easy straight sets. If 3 sets are to be played it should be one loapsided one where Parmentier is being blown off the court. I just don't dare to take Sloane in straight sets but she should cover the handicap. The one and only meeting in Miami was when Sloane where just 19 years old and she's way better player now.

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Cheers Four leaf. I asked Czech because he replied to my post so thought I would see his opinion on the match. Never watched it but followed the score and feared the worst when the massive lead was blown. Fair play to Mladenovic for winning.  Will have a scan of matches for tomorrow and post my selection.

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Yeah, a good pick for the reasons four-leaf already mentioned, although Mladenovic nearly choked it all away at one point. Good start, hoping for more :ok Excuse me for not posting before the match, wasn't around unfortunately. My pick, on the other hand, was a spectacular failure - Mayer had the first BPs, but it went downhill quickly from then on. Shabby form on my part lately, last week was great, now back to the up-and-down stuff I guess. Looking forward to the French Open already!

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3 hours ago, four-leaf said:

You did'nt ask me but since I also had a bet on Kristina since yesterday I think she was a great pick. She also had a 3-0 head2head advantage over Alison and they met twice last season where Kristina won both in straight sets and one of the matches where played in Strasbourg and now she's beaten Alison in Strasbourg twice. She struck two convincing winners in the tie-break today and that proved to be the difference.

Anyway I like...

Sloane Stephens (-3.5) to beat Pauline Parmentier for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with bet365

Sloane has an advantage in the head2head winning their only meeting in Miami 2012. Also in 2012 Sloane reached the semi of Strasbourg. I think she's got enough game for clay and will edge Parmentier in either 3 sets or easy straight sets. If 3 sets are to be played it should be one loapsided one where Parmentier is being blown off the court. I just don't dare to take Sloane in straight sets but she should cover the handicap. The one and only meeting in Miami was when Sloane where just 19 years old and she's way better player now.

Just can't belive the crap coming from Sloane. She was 3-0 up in decider with double break and 4-3 up with break and still manage to lose the match. Wow she's just incredible unbackable in Roland Garros as mutch as she misses the court. My cat would hit the court with more accuracy. She really should have won that match with a break in the decider and I think I really should have won that bet but that's how tennis goes. Hard to know that Sloane would be the way she was tonight. 

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Now thinking about backing Mirjana Lucic-Baroni against Pauline Parmentier who just did'nt win the match against Sloane Stephens because of her great defense. She did'nt win the match against Sloane because she was outplaying her, she was only defending and letting Sloane miss the court or just strike a winner when Sloane was off balance. Mirjana has enough motivation to do well a week before a grand slam. No danger to see her suddenly lose 5-6 points in a row like Sloane in the decider. I mean it was 4-3 and Sloane was serving for 5-3 and was 40-0 up and manage to get broken. So typically awful display from a player like Sloane who does'nt care one bit about winning a clay tournament.

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2 hours ago, astute said:

Been reading this forum for a good while and without blowing smoke up your ass you have a sound knowledge of tennis so will always seek advice especially if staking large.  I will have a look at tmr coupon and post my selection later. 

Thanks for the kind words, but don't rely on an out-of-form punter when staking large :)!

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Back Alexander Zverev to beat Gilles Simon for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with Bet365

Looks like a complete coin-flip to me in all fairness, so going with the higher odds. Simon has been too up and down so far this season to be the favourite here considering that he has a 0-2 record against Zverev and that the Nice conditions aren't incredibly slow.

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Ultimately you have to have the courage if your convictions and that's what I have. But sometimes when staking large you be missing key information that could impact staking. 

As for tomorrow. A few interesting matches taking place. Probably post my selection tomorrow, obviously before match starts. 

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Razzano - Vesnina 4.0 (now 3.8)

Vesnina has very good year but Razzano is in-form just now. And last year show won in Strasburg over Vesnina. H2H is 2:2. Puig and Vesnina are slightly similar players in quality and style. And Razzano was able to play with Puig and be better. Injury of Puig was sudden after Razzano's break in 3rd set

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2 hours ago, janekda said:

Razzano - Vesnina 4.0 (now 3.8)

Vesnina has very good year but Razzano is in-form just now. And last year show won in Strasburg over Vesnina. H2H is 2:2. Puig and Vesnina are slightly similar players in quality and style. And Razzano was able to play with Puig and be better. Injury of Puig was sudden after Razzano's break in 3rd set

Yeas, and it was time in 2:0 2nd set to back Razzano with 12.0

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Back Alexander Zverev to beat Joao Sousa for a 7/10 stake at 1.66 with Unibet

Zverev certainly wasn't clutch in the second set tie-break against Simon, but the turnaround in the decider was so impressive that I think that he'll beat Sousa in the end as well. He's playing the better tennis of the two, he can raise his level whenever he's asked to do so and he'll be full of confidence after beating the Frenchman for the third time in this season - that should be too much for Sousa, who really has been rather average (and perhaps even quite lucky) so far this week.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/tBRdhx

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