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Saturdays Racing (inc Lockinge Stakes, Scoop6 ...)


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3.55 Newbury: Lockinge Stakes 

Verdict:

A wide-open Lockinge for a change and quite a few in with a chance of landing the first prize of just under £200,000. Toormore will be fancied to follow up his Sandown win but both Dutch Connection and Belardo will fancy their chances of reversing the form. All three are now owned by Godolphin who have won this race twice in the last three years.

Kodi Bear is possible improver this year if he can settle, he also wont mind the ground and overall looks the most solid option for me. I’d fancy Limato a bit more if the ground was faster but I’m so sure he will stay well enough to win this and if he was mine I’d be more inclined to aim him at the top sprints.

Selection: Kodi Bear @ 9/2 Ladbrokes

 

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L ockinge

Limato   99.65 class 108

Kodi bear 99.62  class 107

Toormorr  99.59 class 103

Interesting race ...toormore is fav but has been found wanting in group1level and hasn't really shown that touch of class you want ...kodi bear looks the best horse over a mile and should make a bold bid to win this .....best horse in the race is limato but form is over 7f ....Looks as though a mile is well within his compass so will be an interesting battle with kodi bear...tag team safest bet

Limato 4pts win 6/1 bet365 

Kodi bear 6 pts win 9/2 willh

 

 

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410 newm 

Nisser    98.86    class 90

Powerallied  98.84   class 97

Venturous   98.81   class 95

Mr Lupton  98.81 class 102 

Very interesting race ....Nisser is favourite and quite a short price but hasn't run for almost a year and steps up from grade 5 to grade 2 as you see in his class rating ...,,the two highest class horses ...powerallied and Mr Lupton are both fahey horses and he's no mug at placing horses .,.Mr Lupton especially has a huge class advantage having performed admirably at far higher classes than this even in defeat .....at 10/1 and 16/1 the fahey horseslook too good to ignore even if they just place 

Powerallied  5pts ew 16/1 pp

Mr Lupton 5 pts ew 10/1 pp

 

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3.20 Newbury: Carnarvon Stakes 

Verdict:

Obviously the Ascot form behind Gifted Master is the best on show here and both Dream Dubai and Dhahmaan made late headway to chase home that easy winner. You have to decide whether they were just running past beaten horses chasing the pace or were promising runs on their own merit. I think both of the Hannon horses bring solid form to the table and of the pair I like Log Out Island who has been very consistent in this type of race. He’s had a run to put him right and I find it interesting that they reach for the hood which, might help him switch off, he obviously didn’t stay last time out and he looks a big price to me.

Selection:  Log Out Island EW @ 7/1 Paddy Power

 

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Scoop 6 Tips

Big jackpot still waiting to be won

Tote Scoop6 – Saturday May 14th

The final four remaining punters failed to find the 20/1 winner of the Victoria Cup last week and so we have yet another rollover in the Scoop 6 on Saturday. The Win Fund is now standing at £341,376 and the Bonus Funds has reached a massive £1,473,800 making the total possible jackpot of £2 Million a real possibility.

The six races come Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk with the feature race being the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, which will be the second leg of the bet at 3.55 from Newbury.

 

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535 newb 

Artherenus  98.87  class 95

Sinfonetta  98.84  class  94 

Directorship  98.82  class  93 

Directorship doesnt look bad value at 25/1 here but with top two having such strong ratings and also having run advantage I'll stick with them on a difficult day 

Artherenus  4 Pts win 4/1 bet365

Sinfonetta 4pts win 6/1 bet365 

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Eagle Top looks very short. He needs a strong gallop which he won't get and I'm not sure he's an easy ride at all as he doesn't look entirely straight forward as his inconsistent profile suggests. He was beaten as favourite last season and at odds on here at Newbury too and I could easily see him running 10lbs below form. I'll be siding with Carnachy who looks really progressive and should come on for that effort at Goodwood.

The only potential Group 1 horses in the Lockinge are Limato and Endless Drama and Lyons has been quite bullish about the latter so he's the bet. Not sure how Toormore isn't favourite after his first run of the season when he would have needed the run and Dutch Connection is worse off at the weights after losing this time. Kodi Bear has his first run of the season and still needs to improve to win this I would think and surely Buick turning down Belardo is a negative for him and the ground is drying fast. Limato has run well in 2 slowly run 7f races so he's not a certain stayer in what will be a strongly run contest and might come on from this so he can also be taken on. Mahsoob looks like he's finally filling his potential but although the Lockinge has been the target he looks sure to be better at 10f. Arod looks big on the best of his form but you couldn't like his attitude last time and it will be interesting to see if GM Hopkins can build on his good run. Very competitive but the one potential star miler in this is Endless Drama.

4.10 at Newmarket doesn't look great to me. There are two unexposed horses in the race one of which is the favourite who is first time out for Hannon the other is Venturous who is 2nd time out for Appleby who tend to come on a fair bit for the run. That race looked pretty strong with progressive types finishing up the order so I think he should be favourite.

2.45 Newbury - Carnachy @ 9/2 Betway

3.55 Newbury - Endless Drama @ 12/1 William Hill

4.10 Newmarket - Venturous @ 5/1 Ladbrokes (Pricewise), 4/1 Generally

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First race at Thirsk Indigo Beat should go well for good juvenile trainer Duffield. Fahey seems an honest trainer and he said his 2 year olds are badly needing the run this season and he is usually one of the likely winners of this sort of race so that leaves Duffield and this one might be a bit of value.

The 2 year old race at Newbury looks really interesting with Ed Dunlop's Global Applause well odds on and rightly so after a really impressive debut. He does have to encounter softer ground here but does look like 6f will suit. Mehmas was also a good winner on debut at Chester and that form has been franked with Vona winning at York yesterday but I think that horse improved a fair bit from that as he was an unexpected winner. Medicine Jack was smashed in last week at Leopardstown and was staying on well after Lundy got first run on him. That horse is being thought of as a Royal Ascot colt so the form looks strong and Lyons seems to really like him going by his comments and his Group 1 entry so he looks a good e/w bet provided the 8 go to post.

1.45 Thirsk - Indigo Beat @ 8/1 Bet365

2.10 Newbury - Medicine Jack e/w @ 12/1 Bet365

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