May 9 - May 15

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Back Daria Gavrilova to beat Sabine Lisicki for a 7/10 stake at 1.62 with Unibet

Back Teliana Pereira to beat Annika Beck for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Slowish conditions in Rome, should suit both Gavrilova and Pereira in their respective match-ups. Lisicki doesn't even have any form to build on, while Pereira has a 3-1 H2H against Beck on clay (with the only loss coming via an injury-related retirement).

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/QcYCVS

[CzechPunter]

Back Kei Nishikori to win the 2nd quarter for a 5/10 stake at 4.00 with Paddy Power

Back Ernests Gulbis to beat Ivo Karlovic for a 7/10 stake at 1.55 with Unibet

With Federer not particularly in-form, I fancy Nishikori to win the second quarter, certainly the best player there as far as current form is concerned. Gulbis should also get the job done against Karlovic considering that he's beaten two solid players in the qualifiers already.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/8Debg6

[janekda]

Kasatkina - Pliskova Karolina 2.34

Pliskovas game is well suited for faster surface because of her service, flatter fh and bh. Last 10(50) results on clay 7:3(38:12) x 6:4(30:20). Who has better record? Kasatkina. Even with the hardest opponents she could play tight game - Azarenka, Errani. Pliskova has to be big favorite to win on clay.

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, janekda said:

Kasatkina - Pliskova Karolina 2.34

Pliskovas game is well suited for faster surface because of her service, flatter fh and bh. Last 10(50) results on clay 7:3(38:12) x 6:4(30:20). Who has better record? Kasatkina. Even with the hardest opponents she could play tight game - Azarenka, Errani. Pliskova has to be big favorite to win on clay.

So in the End did you take kasatkina or both?? Hmm!

[janekda]

21 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

So in the End did you take kasatkina or both?? Hmm!

Pliskova can win on clay only as big favorite because she is overestimated on clay. And it is not this match. So I bet on Kasatkina.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR WTA ROME
BEGU TO DEFEAT GASPARYAN @ 1.42-betfair / 1.4-ladbrokes / 1.39 - pinnaclesports
Gasparyan really prefers faster services while Begu is a great clay court player in great form, should be too consistent for Gasparyan
 

[four-leaf]

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Kristina Mladenovic for a 5/10 stake at 2.00 with bet365

Kristina is only a force in doubles nowadays and seldom plays well on clay. Neither does Jelena but she is rather untested as a player since she is so young and have'nt played mutch on clay. Her best surface are faster ones since her origin is from a country where hard court is a dominating surface. Serve is one of her best weapons but also her return as she can hit some stunning return winners from time to time. Comparing Ernests Gulbis to Jelena Ostapenko might not be so wrong since both are from Latvia and Ernests can play well on clay although his best surface is hard court but just like Jelena amongst his best weapons are serve and return. Anyway it's hard to predict what you can get from a player like Jelena but I think she can learn to play well on clay and this is a match where she can get through only because of Kristina can misfire and lose the match on her own. I think Kristina is about as good nowadays as Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova and mostly losing matches currently. Turning down the stakes since I think Jelena is such a difficult player to predict.

Edited May 9, 2016 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Back Ernests Gulbis to beat Lucas Pouille for a 7/10 stake at 2.30 with BetVictor

Going with Gulbis again, the comeback against Karlovic was a beautiful one, showing that he still has what it takes to be a major force. Lost to Pouille 6-7 6-7 in Madrid, but he's improved since then and could certainly win this time around at what is a nice price.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/7fVve1

[clubgowi]

WTA Italian Open: Serena Williams VS Anna-Lena Friedsam

I have to try a little on Anna-Lena Friedsam with the six game handicap start. The pair have met once before, at Roland Garros just under 12 months ago and it was close, with Serena winning in three and the match going to 30 games. ALF had a really good read on the Williams serve that day and in a first, let alone any meeting with the best player on the planet, that is unusual. Friedsam played solidly ( very few errors) in her first round win yesterday and should strip much fresher than Williams the younger who is making her first start of the season on clay and who has not played since losing in R3 in Miami , where she is an eight time winner of what she would consider her "home town" tournament. Last year she struggled in her first european clay court start ( 32 games) and then withdrew from this tournament in R2 and despite a fine record in Rome previously, you have to feel at 34yo it doesn't get any easier to come into tournaments "cold", or to make the transition to clay from faster surfaces.

Anna-Lena Friedsam +6 games 2.08 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Nick Kyrgios to beat Milos Raonic for a 7/10 stake at 1.74 with Unibet

Back Mikhail Kukushkin (+1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 5/10 stake at 4.00 with Paddy Power

Well, Gulbis was a set and a break up against Pouille, it did get away though . Tomorrow, I fancy Kyrgios to beat Raonic given the H2H record and how the two played on Monday, while I also like the odds that are on offer for Kukushkin to win a set against Murray. The Scot might be a bit deflated after Sunday and Rome has never been his favourite event, so chances are that the first match won't be that easy for him.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/Vm2l0M

[four-leaf]

Czech Zverev is not Russian he is German and I know that you know he is but just pointing out your miss in the typing.

[CzechPunter]

Silly me, thanks for noticing, fixed now! His parents are Russian, of course, and his brother was born in Russia, but Zverev is completely German .

[potus]

Come off it Heather Watson....... for an experienced player who is ranked 55 in the world to go from 4-0 up in a set to losing the set 6-4 is a total disgrace. Unless there was an injury involved or some circumstances which I don't know about, then that is an absolute nonsense performance. I can't legislate for that kind of display when I'm placing a bet. Not happy at all.

 

I've seen her quoted recently as wanting to push hard to qualify for the Olympics, well after those six games you lost from 4-0 up, you don't deserve to be anywhere near the Olympics.

Edited May 11, 2016 by potus

[CzechPunter]

Off-topic a bit, but the Samarkand Challenger is worth watching I reckon (perhaps in live betting), three straight days of rain and plenty of the players in it have business elsewhere soon, most importantly the Roland Garros qualifiers, which are surely much more important than a Challenger tournament. You can't read the minds of the players and I guess that some will decide to play through, but, looking at the odds, I'm taking Vilardo (who's already played three matches in the event) to beat Khachanov at 10.00 with Pinnacle for small stakes. Just worth a shot at that price imo.

The players signed up for the RG quallies are Khachanov, Albot, Weintraub, Samper-Montana and Dustov.

[CzechPunter]

Back Stanislas Wawrinka (-3.5) to beat Juan Monaco for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Back Thomaz Bellucci (+1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 5/10 stake at 4.35 with 10Bet

Wawrinka has an excellent record against Monaco and he's looking good at the moment, so I fancy him to get the 3.5 games line covered tomorrow. Given how Djokovic played today, I can also see Bellucci taking a set off him - after all, he's already managed to do that on two separate occasions.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/ZBWmTr

[Torque]

I agree with Czech's picks for tomorrow, but instead of playing the handicaps I'm going to back Wawrinka to win @ 1.32 with Tempobet and Bellucci to win @ 18 on the exchanges for a point each.

Roger Federer to beat Dominic Thiem @ 1.59 1xBet (1 pt)

I quite like Federer here. I get that he isn't in great form and has had injury problems which might put some people off backing him, but for me those are some of the reasons I want to back him. With the French Open looming on the horizon, the Swiss is sure to want to go deep this week. He's already seen off one talented youngster in Zverev, and I think he can get the better of Thiem for the second time this season. The Austrian hasn't beaten anyone of Federer's calibre for some time now, and losing to Del Potro last week when the Argentinian still isn't at his best makes me think that Federer might win this even if he isn't in top gear.

Nick Kyrgios to beat Rafael Nadal @ 4.05 Marathonbet (1 pt)

What I like about Kyrgios is that he is fearless. He'll go after anyone and so Nadal won't faze him, despite the Spaniard's recent upturn in form. That's enough for me to throw a point at him in this match, but what also persuades me is the good results the Australian has had this clay swing. Wins over Wawrinka and Cuevas show that he knows what he's doing on the dirt, and it doesn't hurt when you know you've beaten Nadal before which Kyrgios has.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Torque

[Torque]

Misaki Doi to beat Johanna Konta @ 4.05 Pinnacle (1 pt)

I think there's some value in this price. Both players were on losing streaks ahead of this tournament, and both players have strung a couple of wins together here and beaten good players in the last round. Doi has never beaten Konta in three previous meetings so that speaks against the Japanese, but none of those matches were on clay and her confidence must be high after her win against French Open finalist Safarova. It's fair to say that Konta will also be on a high after her demolition job against Vinci, but even taking that into account I think she's too short and should be taken on in this one.

[janekda]

4 hours ago, Torque said:

Misaki Doi to beat Johanna Konta @ 4.05 Pinnacle (1 pt)

I think there's some value in this price. Both players were on losing streaks ahead of this tournament, and both players have strung a couple of wins together here and beaten good players in the last round. Doi has never beaten Konta in three previous meetings so that speaks against the Japanese, but none of those matches were on clay and her confidence must be high after her win against French Open finalist Safarova. It's fair to say that Konta will also be on a high after her demolition job against Vinci, but even taking that into account I think she's too short and should be taken on in this one.

At the first view the bet is very reasonable but. Safarova is not on the level of previous year. Without service, return harmless as usually, soft shots, worse movement. So win over Safarove we can not take into account. I think Konta with her service and agressive game can easily win over Misaki. But If should to bet I bet on Misaki too. As for me there is no value.

so GL

[janekda]

Gasquet - Nishikori 2.9

H2H is 6:1 for G. I can not believe so high odd. Yes N. won last week in Madrid. But it was his the most favourite clay tournament. G. is very good clay player too. And it is well known weak endurance of Nishi. Even with Troicki he had to play 3 sets. And last week in Madrid to SF. I don't trust him.

[delfino]

WTA tour is a total mess. It is almost impossible to hit who is gonna be the winner in Roland Garros. A super surprise is not out of question. From the established wta stars, Halep only in my opinion, stands chances to go far or to lift the trophy. All the others are underperforming. Might look closer to Kerber, i dont know at the moment..

[CzechPunter]

Agreed, but perhaps that's a good thing, as we now have a nice contrast between the two tours. I mean - there are only like six players that could possibly win on the men's side I guess, while the number of WTA candidates is much higher. Depending on how she does in the rest of this week, I can even see Gavrilova going far, she certainly has the game and talent.

[potus]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Agreed, but perhaps that's a good thing, as we now have a nice contrast between the two tours. I mean - there are only like six players that could possibly win on the men's side I guess, while the number of WTA candidates is much higher. Depending on how she does in the rest of this week, I can even see Gavrilova going far, she certainly has the game and talent.

I posted the same point on a different thread about a different sport the other day. Sports need to find the balance between being predictable/boring and a free-for-all/lottery. Women's tennis is falling far too far into the latter category at the moment, delfino is correct. I don't know the solution but it is a bit of a problem.

[CzechPunter]

Back Rafael Nadal to beat Novak Djokovic for a 5/10 stake at 3.35 with 10bet

I'm essentially at 4.00 on Nishikori to beat Thiem tomorrow, so I'll be adding just this one into the mix for smaller stakes. Perhaps I'm going crazy, but Nadal has been the better player of the two so far in Rome, so I certainly wouldn't be having him above the 3.00 mark here. Djokovic can turn it on, of course, but 3.35? Nah.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/cNYGVZ

[Torque]

David Goffin to beat Andy Murray @ 4.15 Marathonbet (1 pt)

After Goffin flattened Berdych in the last round I'd say he has a chance against Murray. Regardless of what state Berdych was in, a double bagel is some achievement in my eyes. Murray had an easy win over Chardy in his last match where he was never tested, and if Goffin can carry forward the momentum of the Berdych win then I think he can cause Murray problems.

Misaki Doi to beat Irina-Camelia Begu @ 3.96 Marathonbet (1 pt)

I'm quite happy to back Doi again after her win against Konta. The Japanese did well to come back from a set down in that match meaning that she's battle-hardened, whilst Begu has reached this stage without dropping a set. I think this might go to three sets and if it does I'd rather be on the player that's already been the distance. I'm not sure there's much to separate these two and so the price on Doi appeals.

[potus]

11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Rafael Nadal to beat Novak Djokovic for a 5/10 stake at 3.35 with 10bet

I'm essentially at 4.00 on Nishikori to beat Thiem tomorrow, so I'll be adding just this one into the mix for smaller stakes. Perhaps I'm going crazy, but Nadal has been the better player of the two so far in Rome, so I certainly wouldn't be having him above the 3.00 mark here. Djokovic can turn it on, of course, but 3.35? Nah.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/cNYGVZ

'Djokovic can turn it on' may be the biggest understatement in the history of this forum. Nadal doesn't have the game to beat Djokovic, you'd be needing odds closer to double 3.35 to be getting near to being value. 1.3 on Djokovic is where the value lies today.

[janekda]

3 minutes ago, potus said:

'Djokovic can turn it on' may be the biggest understatement in the history of this forum. Nadal doesn't have the game to beat Djokovic, you'd be needing odds closer to double 3.35 to be getting near to being value. 1.3 on Djokovic is where the value lies today.

I am carefull to say "somebody has no game to beat other". I saw so many matches which was won by player without any weapons

I don't bet on Nadal because I don't know how influenced long match with Kyrgios on his fitness. In Monace after long match with Murray Nadal won in another long match with Monfils. So maybe it doesn't influence. But the odd is tempting, The King of clay with 3.35 ...

[potus]

48 minutes ago, janekda said:

I am carefull to say "somebody has no game to beat other". I saw so many matches which was won by player without any weapons

I don't bet on Nadal because I don't know how influenced long match with Kyrgios on his fitness. In Monace after long match with Murray Nadal won in another long match with Monfils. So maybe it doesn't influence. But the odd is tempting, The King of clay with 3.35 ...

You mean 'The King of Clay' 2005-2014?

 

The King is dead, long live the King (Djokovic.) 

 

[TheBeast]

26 minutes ago, potus said:

You mean 'The King of Clay' 2005-2014?

 

The King is dead, long live the King (Djokovic.) 

 

What king? The one who was bageled by Bellucci or the one who lost to a grossly out of form Vesely at Monte Carlo.... BTW it's Djokobitch  

Also, you can, and I will most certainly, call Nole a king when he wins a grand slam every year till 2020

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by TheBeast
Just for fun :)

[shambata]

Hey Czech! It has been a year mate since I left. Just was reminiscing on this forum, where all started....  Hope you are doing fine and your tipping is going great mate! Begu is killing it this week, incredible game now...

best

shamba