April 18 - April 24

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Back Albert Montanes to beat Robert Carballes Baena for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Betway

Back Victor Estrella to beat Mikhail Kukushkin for a 7/10 stake at 2.30 with 10bet

Montanes looked very good in Marrakech and he's a class above Baena as well, so that's for the first bet. Meanwhile, Estrella is a better clay courter than Kukushkin and he was excellent in Barcelona last year, so I just have to back him at 2.30 against the man from Kazakhstan that lost against Robert last time out.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/TxDIiL

[CzechPunter]

Back Ekaterina Makarova to beat Roberta Vinci for a 7/10 stake at 1.74 with Unibet

Back Timea Babos to beat Sabine Lisicki for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with BetVictor

Makarova should enjoy a very nice edge over Vinci - better form, better H2H, more rest. Meanwhile, I just can't have Lisicki as the favourite against someone as good as Babos given her current form. Things just aren't clicking for the German at the moment, so chances are that Babos will be too strong for her in Stuttgart.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/q0oeQI

[TheBeast]

Returning to tennis betting after a long time thanks to cricket and nba..... Anyway looking to place my first couple of bets for the clay court swing..... I am with Czech on Montanes but I also fancy Zverev against J L Struff..... How do u see the Zverev match playing out Czech? 

[CzechPunter]

Sorry, wasn't online - and I wouldn't have any good ideas anyway. Seems like he'll get the job done for you now though - and Montanes was as easy as they get.

[CzechPunter]

Back Victor Estrella to beat Jeremy Chardy for a 7/10 stake at 2.85 with Unibet

Back Teimuraz Gabashvili to beat Benoit Paire for a 7/10 stake at 2.62 with Paddy Power

Estrella looks value against Chardy at 2.85, that guy just never gives up and you never have any guarantees regarding which Chardy is going to turn up. Meanwhile, Gabashvili can just crush Paire if he picks up where he left off after the match against Almagro today - and he should have enough chances even if he doesn't.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/W25x2U

[CzechPunter]

Back Radek Stepanek (-2.5) to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with 10Bet

Back Pablo Cuevas (-3) to beat Albert Ramos for a 7/10 stake at 1.86 with 10Bet

Going with two favourites tomorrow, Stepanek is the better player and also the one with the better form, while Cuevas is a class above Ramos nowadays in my opinion. He also beat the Spaniard 7-5 6-2 a few months ago in Buenos Aires.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/xypZ8X

[TheBeast]

12 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Radek Stepanek (-2.5) to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with 10Bet

Back Pablo Cuevas (-3) to beat Albert Ramos for a 7/10 stake at 1.86 with 10Bet

Going with two favourites tomorrow, Stepanek is the better player and also the one with the better form, while Cuevas is a class above Ramos nowadays in my opinion. He also beat the Spaniard 7-5 6-2 a few months ago in Buenos Aires.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/xypZ8X

Hey Czech if you haven't played Cuevas yet its -3 @ 1.90 on Bet365..... Thanks and with you on Cuevas..... 

[CzechPunter]

2 hours ago, TheBeast said:

Hey Czech if you haven't played Cuevas yet its -3 @ 1.90 on Bet365..... Thanks and with you on Cuevas..... 

No, it is not. Bet365 have -3 @ 1.90 in three-way betting, which means that it will be a lost bet if the difference is exactly 3 games. It's two-way betting at 10Bet, which means that a 3-game difference will result in a void bet, which is a big difference.

[CzechPunter]

Back Pablo Cuevas (-2.5) to beat Benoit Paire for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Back Karen Khachanov (+1.5 sets) to beat Aleksandr Dolgopolov for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power

Fancy Cuevas again, should be just way too solid for Paire. Apart from that, I can also see Khachanov taking a set off Dolgopolov much more often than not given the way he's been playing since his arrival to Barcelona.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/oV2mLg

[janekda]

I need to put Fognini even with odd 1.6

There is for me one important reason. Next round Fognini would play with Nadal. I don't know why but Fognini is highly motivated with him. As he wants to show who is better player on clay.

For Fognini is motivation the main factor. He can loose with anybody and also win.

[TheBeast]

19 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

No, it is not. Bet365 have -3 @ 1.90 in three-way betting, which means that it will be a lost bet if the difference is exactly 3 games. It's two-way betting at 10Bet, which means that a 3-game difference will result in a void bet, which is a big difference.

Oh ok buddy...... Didn't know that.... I thought you took 3-way -3 which is same as -3.5 2-way...... Btw thanks for the winner  

[TheBeast]

2 hours ago, janekda said:

I need to put Fognini even with odd 1.6

There is for me one important reason. Next round Fognini would play with Nadal. I don't know why but Fognini is highly motivated with him. As he wants to show who is better player on clay.

For Fognini is motivation the main factor. He can loose with anybody and also win.

Fognini isn't in such good form so match against Nadal might not be as fun as Hamburg final..... But i hope Nadal faces and beats enough tough opponents before RG2016..... 

Edited April 21, 2016 by TheBeast
Hamburg, not Stuttgart

[potus]

19 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

No, it is not. Bet365 have -3 @ 1.90 in three-way betting, which means that it will be a lost bet if the difference is exactly 3 games. It's two-way betting at 10Bet, which means that a 3-game difference will result in a void bet, which is a big difference.

TheBeast makes a good point actually. If some sites are offering -3 games as a two-way handicap and some are offering it as a three-way handicap, then you would be better specifying which it is that you are tipping so as not to cause confusion. 

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, potus said:

TheBeast makes a good point actually. If some sites are offering -3 games as a two-way handicap and some are offering it as a three-way handicap, then you would be better specifying which it is that you are tipping so as not to cause confusion. 

Czech you should just write -3.0 because that should be enough for everyone to understand that 3.0 means void at exactly 3 games.

[CzechPunter]

This hasn't been a problem until now, so I'll just slap AH on those even numbers, that should be enough.

[four-leaf]

Czech why did'nt you take on Lucas Pouille v Ivo Karlovic today?How on earth you could miss that I don't understand. Ivo back from injury on his worst surface and you did find a winner in Monte Carlo with Pablo Cuevas v Ivo Karlovic where you had Pablo on the handicap. It was easy money with Lucas on the handicap.

I'm going against Pouille next match because he will face Paolo Lorenzi. If you want you could put up a preview on that match so I don't have to do it. I don't even think I got time for that tomorrow.

Anyway...

Paolo Lorenzi to beat Lucas Pouille for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddypower

I see a good opportunity here. Now Lucas is totally overrated. The price on Paolo is ok and he should have a good chance to reach the semifinal as he is the better clay courter. I usually go against players who are small favourites in situations like this where we have a player who have advanced to the quarters just because he's faced easy enough opponents. There is no value at all on Lucas so to me it makes sense going for Paolo. Don't overrate Lucas here just because he's beaten Gasquet in Monte Carlo or Ferrer in Miami. Go for Paolo or just skip betting on this match.

[CzechPunter]

Because I'm covering only Barcelona this week, simple as that. And you could've brought our attention to that anyway

Back Rafael Nadal (-5.5) to beat Fabio Fognini for a 7/10 stake at 2.05 with Unibet

Going with this tomorrow, as Nadal is just crushing everyone right now and has a big motivation here given that he lost against Fognini in this event last year. Fog will surely be focused, but his level of play isn't that high nowadays from what I've seen. This isn't the 2015 Nadal that Fognini beat on three occasions, this is the 2016 Nadal that might even have a shot at winning the French Open.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/9FFXPc

[four-leaf]

Nao Hibino to beat Cagla Buyukacay for a 5/10 stake at 2.75 with Paddypower

I can understand a little why Buyukacay has been made the favourite here since she has the home advantage but I don't understand how she suddenly have become so good that she deserves to be priced as a 1.40 favourite. That's beyond my understanding. In Hibinos two matches she's dropped the first set both times and Buyukacay has won her two matches convincingly. I still would not be surprised if Buyukacay loses this.

[TheBeast]

8 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Because I'm covering only Barcelona this week, simple as that. And you could've brought our attention to that anyway

Back Rafael Nadal (-5.5) to beat Fabio Fognini for a 7/10 stake at 2.05 with Unibet

Going with this tomorrow, as Nadal is just crushing everyone right now and has a big motivation here given that he lost against Fognini in this event last year. Fog will surely be focused, but his level of play isn't that high nowadays from what I've seen. This isn't the 2015 Nadal that Fognini beat on three occasions, this is the 2016 Nadal that might even have a shot at winning the French Open.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/9FFXPc

2016 Nadal that might even have a chance at the French Open...... God bless you my friend I hope this comes true  

[janekda]

2 hours ago, TheBeast said:

2016 Nadal that might even have a chance at the French Open...... God bless you my friend I hope this comes true  

I disagree a little with Czech Punter's comment of Nadal's motivation. He has all the time motivation. He is warrior in all matches. Despite Fabio. I would be carefull to bet on Nadal even he is close to his old form.

Edited April 22, 2016 by janekda

[TheBeast]

6 hours ago, janekda said:

I disagree a little with Czech Punter's comment of Nadal's motivation. He has all the time motivation. He is warrior in all matches. Despite Fabio. I would be carefull to bet on Nadal even he is close to his old form.

Me too..... I don't like to bet on Rafa because whenever I do, he tends to perform poorly..... So just going to be a proud Rafan and enjoy the match  

[CzechPunter]

That was...eh...painful to watch.

[CzechPunter]

Back Rafael Nadal (-4.5) to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber for a 5/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

Lowering stakes a bit, not a great deal of value to be found tomorrow. In any case, Nadal should get the job done against Kohli, he's got a massive record against him and the German is well-known for self-destructing against big names.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/m5tETm

[TheBeast]

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Rafael Nadal (-4.5) to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber for a 5/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

Lowering stakes a bit, not a great deal of value to be found tomorrow. In any case, Nadal should get the job done against Kohli, he's got a massive record against him and the German is well-known for self-destructing against big names.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/m5tETm

Love this one..... Kohlschreiber has a game which suits Rafa and also Kohlschreiber uncanny ability to bury himself on bigger occasions....... Will probably make an exception and play this one  

By the way tough luck yesterday Czech it was only half a game.... No problem you'll get them today 

 

[delfino]

I very much fancy the chances of Kvitova today! Happened to watch her yesterday against Muguruza. I have to admit that Mugu was a shadow of player, very bad in all occasions. But Kvitova was a pure classy against her! I think that Petra is gaining form again. 

Kvitova +3.5 games to beat Kerber @1.83 offered by bet365

safe bet in my eyes! 

[CzechPunter]

Back Rafael Nadal (-3.5) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 7/10 stake at 1.86 with Unibet

Hard to see past Nadal here imo. He's not at his best just yet, of course, but he's getting close and he looked much better than the Japanese number on Saturday, so I can see the 3.5 games line being covered much more often than not.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/5CwxXo

[TheBeast]

10 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Rafael Nadal (-3.5) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 7/10 stake at 1.86 with Unibet

Hard to see past Nadal here imo. He's not at his best just yet, of course, but he's getting close and he looked much better than the Japanese number on Saturday, so I can see the 3.5 games line being covered much more often than not.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/5CwxXo

Another great preview by Czech describing all the important factors in great detail..... On you with this one mate..... Vamos Rafa!!!