April 11 - April 17

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Back Veronica Cepede (-3.5) to beat Paula Goncalves for a 7/10 stake at 1.87 with Unibet

Back Anna Tatishvili to beat Ipek Soylu for a 7/10 stake at 1.73 with BetVictor

Not much happening in the WTA this week, I'll go with these two in the match betting in Bogota. Cepede has an excellent record against Goncalves, while Tatishvili should've beaten Soylu in their last match and is the better player of the two in my opinion.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/PXQICz

[CzechPunter]

Back Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Thomaz Bellucci for a 7/10 stake at 1.73 with BetVictor

Back Lukas Rosol to beat Aljaz Bedene for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with BetVictor

Nothing in the outrights, Djokovic is going to win, but the odds are too short. In the match betting, GGL should be too strong for Bellucci in the Monte Carlo conditions, while I'm also struggling to understand why Rosol is priced as the underdog against Bedene.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/gN8sUQ

[Fader]

3pts F.Krajinovic +4.5 to beat G.Dimitrov Evens Skybet
Worth a punt in my opinion. Wouldn't surprise me if Dimitrov lost this match infact. Kraj is a clay courter who is in form beating winning Monte Carlo and beating Giraldo in the final. Dimitrov normally does well here but his form isn't nothing outstanding and he is definitely weaker on clay then Grass or the Hard courts. These two played twice before on the hard and in one of those it went to three sets. On the clay I expect more from Kraj and 3 sets wouldn't suprise me. 

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR ATP BARLETTA CHALLENGER:
YMER TO DEFEAT MORIYA  @ 1.25 on pinnaclesports
while Ymer is not at his best on clay, Moriya can't play on clay  at all

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, WinningTipster said:

1 PICK FOR ATP BARLETTA CHALLENGER:
YMER TO DEFEAT MORIYA  @ 1.25 on pinnaclesports
while Ymer is not at his best on clay, Moriya can't play on clay  at all

Ymer is at his best on clay

[CzechPunter]

Back Joao Sousa (-3) to beat Ivo Karlovic for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with Betway

Back Pablo Cuevas (-4) to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway

Back Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (+5) to beat Roger Federer for a 7/10 stake at 1.85 with Betway

Obvious bet on Sousa I guess, Karlovic just returning from an injury to a tournament he's rarely played in. Cuevas is a league above Gimeno-Traver nowadays in my opinion, while GGL should give Federer a good match on this surface and considering that Federer hasn't played since the Aussie Open. GGL looked good against Bellucci as well.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/zpkuhK

(If anyone is wondering about Cepede, she was ill - not injured - but didn't want to retire)

[Fader]

will try again opposing Dimitrov 

6pts G.Simon to beat G,Dimitrov 5/6 Boylesports
2pts G.Simon 2-0 9/4 Ladbrokes
Simon has the game that can atleast suit the clay and he has had success on it in the past. These 2 have played 5 times and Simon has won 4 of those including a 2-0 win on the clay in 2012. That event was also in France too, which is quite important as the french fans really get behind there own players I've found. Dimitrov did win the last match-up but he has only won or tested Simon when the court has been very fast. Today we are on the clay.

[Fader]

5pts P.Cuevas -4.5 games to beat Gimeno-Traver Evens Skybet
This seems a good price on Cuevas. Gimeno-Traver has had some success recently on the clay but so has Cuevas, and Cuevas is a far better player. Head-2-head shows 2-0 to Cuevas and both on the clay. He would of covered this handicap last match they played and that was a long time ago in which Cuevas has only improved. Two tournaments won on clay in a row speaks volumes. Id pick Cuevas as an outsiders this week. 

[Fader]

6pts F.Delbonis to beat F.Verdasco 4/6 Skybet
Verdasco past few times I've seen him is really showing his age on the court. Delbonis just won the Casablanca event without even dropping a set and also performed well on the hard courts in Miami Wells getting to the last 16. Verdasco got easily beaten by Baghdatis who is far from a clay courter. They have met once in 2013 and Delbo won in 3. Maybe there will be three sets here so I'll just take the outright.

[four-leaf]

GG-Lopez has a pretty good chance to not only cover 5 in handicap but also to beat Federer today.

[four-leaf]

Guillermo Garcia Lopez to beat Roger Federer for a 6/10 stake at 5.50 with Paddypower

My obvious bet today is that a rusty Roger will find this match to tough and he will have a hard time winning matches until the grass because he is'nt some kind of fitness monster nowadays. Having to little match practice I belive will show on the court today.

[four-leaf]

Well, well, Roger surprised and did a lot better then I thought. Lack of match practice did'nt show at all.

[Fader]

awful from Delbo. Nobody should be losing 6-0 to Verdasco in any set, nobody! 

4pts J.Chardy to beat Bautista Agut 7/4 Paddypower
Big value in this for me. In France, and leads the h2h on the clay 1-0 at the French Open. Expect it to be a close one, but even if for pure value I have to take this. Sure, form is a worry for Chardy but coming onto a new surface and winning his first against Kuznetsov in straight sets is a good sign of some kind of progress for Chardy. 

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, Fader said:

awful from Delbo. Nobody should be losing 6-0 to Verdasco in any set, nobody! 

4pts J.Chardy to beat Bautista Agut 7/4 Paddypower
Big value in this for me. In France, and leads the h2h on the clay 1-0 at the French Open. Expect it to be a close one, but even if for pure value I have to take this. Sure, form is a worry for Chardy but coming onto a new surface and winning his first against Kuznetsov in straight sets is a good sign of some kind of progress for Chardy. 

Not your luck today. Chardy missed an overhead smash. He missed the ball completely at break point, a point he would have won otherwise.

[CzechPunter]

Back Milos Raonic (-2.5) to beat Pablo Cuevas for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway

Back Gael Monfils (-5) to beat Paolo Lorenzi for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Betway

Nothing spectacular for me tomorrow, just fancy Raonic and Monfils to get the job done without many hassles. Lorenzi is lucky to be here, while Raonic should be too strong for Cuevas given what I saw from the two in the first round.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/YzE4NTQz

[liquidglass]

Monfils Vs Lorenzi This is one match-up that looks pretty straight-forward on paper and rightly so, but only in respect to the final outcome. H2H is 1-0 Monfils, however Lorenzi returns to his bread and butter surface having already acquitted himself very well in his first round match. I expect him to play much better today going down with a decent fight. Lorenzi over 7.5 games 1/1 @ paddypower is the tip. Gl Everybody!

[Fader]

16 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Not your luck today. Chardy missed an overhead smash. He missed the ball completely at break point, a point he would have won otherwise.

been not my luck for a while mate lol 

[Fader]

6pts A.Zverev -3.5 games to beat M.Granollers 5/6 Bet365
Nice bit of luck for Zverev with Ferrer dropping out. Granollers has already been shown up this week by Traver including a 6-0 thrashing in one set. Zverev is the far superior player and I just cannot see Granollers finding a way to break him. Zverev in two, however I'll take the games handicap as the odds are pretty much the same. 

[CzechPunter]

Back Gael Monfils (-3.5) to beat Jiri Vesely for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Back Rafael Nadal (-3.5) to beat Dominic Thiem for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

A big result for Vesely today, but I don't think that he'll be able to follow it up by beating Monfils, who looked very strong against Lorenzi. Chances are that the Czech won't really turn up anyway. Apart from that, I also fancy Nadal to get his revenge for the Buenos Aires loss. Thiem is carrying an injury at the moment, beating Struff and Daniel on fighting spirit alone, but Nadal should be way too strong.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/V0bm3G

 

[Crespo]

Hello! The previous one was succesfull, so another in-play opportunity that looks promising to me, and it's certainly a valuable one. It's the Naydenova/ Seguel - Falconi/Panova doubles match in Bogota that will start in I think about an hour or so. But it's restarted from yesterday in which  Naydenova/Seguel won the first set 7-5. and it looks like people are forgetting that here. When they won the first set yesterday Naydenova and Seguel had odds around 1.7, and were therefore pretty obvious favorites to win, but now people are offering odds above 2 and a lot of times even above 2.2 or so on them. I think those people forgot that they already won the first set. Furthermore Falconi already had a long match today and Panova just finished her singles match so both can be a little tired. Neither of them are doubles specialists either, and the same can maybe said from Naydenova and Seguel on WTA level, but they are at least a little bit used in playing together and even won an ITF title together. Seguel btw won 21 doubles tournaments on ITF level and Naydenova 6. So to me the value now with odds around 2.2 is certainly on Naydenova and Seguel. 

 

Btw, it's in-play at Betfair if you want to get on. Haven't seen it back at the bookies yet.

Edited April 13, 2016 by Crespo
Forgot something

[Fader]

2.5pts G.Simon to beat S.Wawrinka 23/10 Sportingbet
I would say the overs for this would be very likely also but I'm going to take a chance on Simon. I watched alot of the Wawrinka match and he looks lethargic and very prone to being broke. Head-2-head, Stan leads and won the three meetings on the clay and all in France. The last 2 were French Open matches. One was very close, Wawrinka winning in a five setter. The last was last year where Stan was on fire. Inbetween them, Simon won on the hardcourt. I just feel Simon is hitting some good form including taking Novak to five sets at the Australian Open and 5 of his last 6. The price is appealing. 

[Fader]

6pts D.Goffin to beat M.Granollers 2-0 4/6 Skybet
A good chance to get money back from Zverevs piss poor performance yesterday. Goffin is ten times the player Granollers is in my opinion. Zverev looked awful and still pushed Granollers to three sets and Goffin will not make the same errors. Especially on a surface Goffin likes alot. 

[Fader]

4pts L.Pouille to beat J.Tsonga 5/2
A good price for Pouille who has been in good form for a while now. He has beaten Ferrer and Gasquet in recent weeks and has won 7 in 9. Tsonga never does things easy and although he done well at the Australian Open on the hard, he has struggled abit on the clay where he has lost to some right trash and could of quite easily been knocked out by Busta in the previous round. For me, Tsonga will be 100% thinking about the French Open where he done so well last year and this, much like Wawrinka could be a use for match fitness more than a tournament he has set out to win.

[potus]

15 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Gael Monfils (-3.5) to beat Jiri Vesely for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Back Rafael Nadal (-3.5) to beat Dominic Thiem for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

A big result for Vesely today, but I don't think that he'll be able to follow it up by beating Monfils, who looked very strong against Lorenzi. Chances are that the Czech won't really turn up anyway. Apart from that, I also fancy Nadal to get his revenge for the Buenos Aires loss. Thiem is carrying an injury at the moment, beating Struff and Daniel on fighting spirit alone, but Nadal should be way too strong.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/V0bm3G

 

I'm trusting you on the Thiem injury comment here. If that's the case then the bet is good, if not then there is no way we should be betting on Rafa at such short odds. I hope your reading of the situation is correct.

[four-leaf]

I see no signs of injury from Thiem

[four-leaf]

Roger Federer (-4.5) to beat Roberto Bautista Agut for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365

Roger owns Roberto and it will show today that Roger is to good tactically. I think Roberto had a bit to many problems to beat Chardy to stand a chance here. Roberto had difficulties serving out the match and had some luck to break Chardy in the third set when Chardy missed the ball completely at break point.

[CzechPunter]

Seems like he's been able to sort things out, but he was in pain in his previous matches and it was quite obvious from both his play and attitude. Apparently - and this is coming from the guy himself - he's had to get a cyst drained before the first round, a lot of painkillers to solve that etc. He's adopted the right strategy against Rafa today and the Spaniard is just way too passive for the umpteenth time in this season and his drop shots have been just awful so far, so Thiem is just outplaying him. Bet might still come in as Thiem isn't looking particularly clutch, but we'll see.

[four-leaf]

Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Thiem/Nadal

[four-leaf]

Andy Murray to beat Milos Raonic

On clay this is going to be Murrays match to win. Can't see Raonic having mutch chance in the rallies. Clay is certainly not Murrays best surface but he's really improved on it which we saw last year.

Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Rafael Nadal 

My first thought is that Wawrinka will clearly outplay Nadal.  There wont be any title in Monaco this year for Nadal because either Wawrinka stops him or Murray will in the semis.