IPL 2016

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Sunrisers to beat Delhi at 4/5 with Stan James

Last time out Sunrisers came through on a tricky deck by defending just 137 against a decent Pune side, who now look to be out of the tournament.

Here they take on a Delhi side who have been resurgent this year, after a few poor campaigns. Quinton de Kock has provided plenty of runs, while the bowling unit has been well drilled and regularly restricts teams to a below par score.

Amit Mishra has had a decent campaign, while Sam Billings has added to his growing reputation in the middle order, but what they lack is some real x-factor.

They have finally promoted Brathwaite and Morris up the order to add firepower, but what they lack is top quality support for De Kock in the top three.

Sunrisers have Warner, Williamson, Dhawan and Yuvraj at the top of the order. That is starting to look very strong as they all begin to find form. Yuvraj has been particularly encouraging, especially given his pedigree hitting big in this competition.

 

Now that Dhawan has remembered that his is a top notch opener, and that Kane Williamson is back in the side as arguably the most competent middle order player cross-format, they look a big danger.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/VLNEED

[potus]

On 11 May 2016 at 19:39:26, BigMozzyDog said:

Ok, of the four main bet types I've employed so far, my stats are as follows:

Win/lose market: +1.60 pts

Top batter/bowler market: +99.92 pts

Sixes lines: -1.40 pts

Opening partnerships: +5pts

Nb, my top player winnings are skewed due to a couple of large wins.

So, I except your point about the nature of this year's IPL, especially on the basis on the net run rates you mention. That said, even if I'm only making a small profit in a competition where it has been a little unpredictable, I'm happy to continue picking what I see to be the best value. We clearly disagree on strategy, which is cool, but I'd be intrigued to know how you go about betting on limited overs cricket in general.

As you can see above, I have tipped in other markets with some success, but only when they have made cricketing sense.

Wow, if those stats are correct then I owe you an apology. I didn't think anyone could be making money on this season's IPL match markets but you seem to have managed it - although I assume yesterday's result has taken you slightly back into the negative? 

 

You asked how I go about betting on limited-overs cricket. I'm not saying the T20 match market is NEVER a good bet, normally it is fine - although waiting for in-running match betting is a far better option as there is always a slight lottery element.

However, something is different in this season's IPL. Logic, form, predictability etc etc have completely vanished. Teams who are on a roll are losing to teams who can't play. There are no formidable home records. High scoring, six hitting and standard chases have all vanished. Teams are scoring high scores without many sixes and then the next game low scores with loads of sixes. What was a batting-dominated league is this season from nowhere bowling-dominated. We have teams at the top with negative run rates and at the bottom with positive. We have players like Chris Gayle who one game in ten can win the match on his own and is the unplayable best player on the planet but the other nine games out of ten doesn't make double figures. Players like Shane Watson whose batting and bowling can go from a dream one day to a car crash the next with no indication of which one it will be.

 

I could go on and on with these types of examples but the key point is that this season's IPL has become a total lottery. There is no form or logic or reasoning which holds up when trying to place match bets. I appreciate we can still write previews and go 'here is the apparent form or logic' but the reality is that that form/logic isn't holding up and each game itself is like a new start and a lottery as to who wins, so to use form/logic as the basis for betting tips is not an intelligent move THIS SEASON. 

 

Maybe things will return to a more 'normal,' logical situation next season or later this season but you have to be able to see where we're at just now and adjust accordingly? I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is and say that - certainly so far this IPL - and probably for the rest of the tournament as well you could make more money by tossing a coin to pick the match winner than you could by using logic or reasoning. Could be an interesting challenge if you fancy it? 

[potus]

Just to add BigMozzyDog, you stated your match betting results as +1.60. I've done the calculation to that point and got you on -5.98, which becomes -9.98 after yesterday's tip.

I'm not sure where the discrepancy comes from. There were a couple of occasions where you gave a match betting tip but didn't state the number of points you were betting on it so maybe it is that? 

 

In fact, looking now at the matches where you forgot to state how many points you were betting..... you had a win at 8/15 and a win at 4/7 and a loss at 8/11. Going by your usual stakes of either 4 or 5 points, the best case scenario for you would give you a profit of 1.52 between these 3 matches - and that's probably being slightly generous - but that still takes you to a total loss of 8.46 which is some way off what you claimed. Why are we getting different figures here? 

Edited May 13, 2016 by potus

[BigMozzyDog]

On 13/05/2016, 10:06:39, potus said:

Just to add BigMozzyDog, you stated your match betting results as +1.60. I've done the calculation to that point and got you on -5.98, which becomes -9.98 after yesterday's tip.

I'm not sure where the discrepancy comes from. There were a couple of occasions where you gave a match betting tip but didn't state the number of points you were betting on it so maybe it is that? 

 

In fact, looking now at the matches where you forgot to state how many points you were betting..... you had a win at 8/15 and a win at 4/7 and a loss at 8/11. Going by your usual stakes of either 4 or 5 points, the best case scenario for you would give you a profit of 1.52 between these 3 matches - and that's probably being slightly generous - but that still takes you to a total loss of 8.46 which is some way off what you claimed. Why are we getting different figures here? 

I provided the stats above based on the detailed records we keep after every betting preview, so if I have missed a couple of my tips from the forum, I do apologise. I'll be more careful in future. In answer to your question, yes, my outright betting is now slightly in negative, though the player markets seems to be a real source of profit - David Warner popped up as a top batter at 4/1 the other day. 

We have a tool here on the PL website that logs the bets and stakes of all our previewed bets, so I'm assuming my stats are correct. But as you've queried them, I'll double check.

The fact remains that their is profit to be had on the IPL, it's just more challenging this year.

[BigMozzyDog]

5pts KKR to win at 1.66 with Boylesports

5pts KKR highest opening partnership at 1.91 with Coral

1pt Russell to be top batter at 61 with Paddy Power

So far this season KKR have been one of the most reliable sides to bet on, whether that is to win games, or have the highest opening partnership. We even pick out 100/1 top batter a week ago. In this game they come up against the opposite, Rising Pune Supergiants. So, can consistency triumph over unpredictability?

KKR need a win here to cement their place in the play-off position. This is the first of their final four games, three of which are at home, where their record is formidable. For Gambhir’s men, the equation seems simple. Don’t mess it up and the play-offs are yours.

Their MVP, Andre Russell is a player we’ve championed for almost a year in both top player markets, as well as picking him out to be a match winner for both club and country.

Elsewhere, Yusaf Pathan has been woken from a six season slumber to make a meaningful contribution in the middle order, while their top order has been sublime. Robin Uthappa and Gautam Gambhir have formed the most reliable opening partnership in the IPL, and offer a healthy portion of game management with every swashbuckling partnership.

Gambhir’s leadership has been another stand-out reason for their success. He is game savvy, innovative, and understands how to win games in this tournament.

Bowling wise, they are the complete package. They have pace in Morne Morkel, Russell and Umesh Yadav, and they also have one of the most economical spinners in the business, Sunil Narine. Narine will return to the side for this game, so it will be interesting to see whether a 49-ball 66 will keep Shakib his place. Probably not.

As for Pune, they are a tough side to call, but one thing’s for certain, they have not had the best of luck so far. Player injuries to key men like Pietersen and Du Plessis have been compounded by loss of form for key bowlers like Ravi Ashwin, who looks like a shadow of the spinner we saw in 2015.

They have lost their last two games relatively easily and seem to be struggling for direction. Even a six-wicket haul by Adam Zampa wasn’t enough to get them over the line against Sunrisers Hyderabad. It’s a learning year for them as they make their IPL debut, but they will certainly be looking to finish strong to give hope for IPL10.

You can back KKR to win at 4/6 with BoyleSports.

One area where we have had most success this year has been the top opening partnership market, where Gambhir and Uthappa have been particularly kind to us.

These two IPL veterans have looked solid as a rock, and seem more than happy to establish themselves with a 20-30 run stint before going big.

You can back KKR to have the top opening partnership at 10/11 with Coral.

As for the player markets, we’re taking a small punt on some big price value. Both Yusuf Pathan and Andre Russell have fired this season, and have the hitting ability to make a significant score in just a few deliveries. Russell looks a huge price to be top batsman in the game, and can’t really be ignored.

You can back Russell to be top batsman at 60/1 with Paddy Power.

[potus]

2 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:

I provided the stats above based on the detailed records we keep after every betting preview, so if I have missed a couple of my tips from the forum, I do apologise. I'll be more careful in future. In answer to your question, yes, my outright betting is now slightly in negative, though the player markets seems to be a real source of profit - David Warner popped up as a top batter at 4/1 the other day. 

We have a tool here on the PL website that logs the bets and stakes of all our previewed bets, so I'm assuming my stats are correct. But as you've queried them, I'll double check.

The fact remains that their is profit to be had on the IPL, it's just more challenging this year.

I think we were discussing the match betting market though, weren't we? Yeah, you probably need to check your stats because they look a bit off.

 

Also, I notice you say 'we' instead of 'I' a lot in your previews. Who are the 'we' you are referring to?

[BigMozzyDog]

As far as games go, this is a big one for the Delhi Daredevils, who will need a win against the injury ravaged Pune to put themselves in a great position going into the last two games of the league phase. Lose and they have it all to do. Win and it’s in their hands.

Delhi have made a real fist of their campaign, and a lot of that must go down to Quinton de Kock, who has continued his excellent form from the World T20.

Their problem in reaching the play-offs may be that their batting looks fragile in the middle overs. Sanju Samson has been impressive at the top, but only Duminy has put regular score together in the middle order. They probably have one of the more threatening attacks, but their lack of bat/ball balance could cost them.

One thing that Delhi have done to mitigate their potential weakness, is promote big hitting allrounders, Chris Morris and Carlos Brathwaite up the order. Yes, they aren’t batsmen, but they have many of the attributes needed to force their team to a big score. If they make the play-off, they aren’t a side anyone would like to face, given their ability to pull off a one off performance.

Even with the recent arrival of Hashim Amla, who stroked a sublime half-century last time, it’s hard to see this Pune side making a big impression here.

You can back Delhi Daredevils to win at ⅚ with Stan James.

As for the other markets, Ravi Ashwin could make for interesting value if he’s boosted up the order again for Pune. He’s 150/1 with Paddy Power to be top batter.

Far more likely is the continued form of Quinton de Kock, who has been imperious this year, justifying all the hype that preceded his arrival into international cricket. If he can maintain the form that has seen him pass 40 in each of his last four knocks, he looks a great top batsman bet here.

You can back De Kock to be top batter at 9/2 with Skybet.

[BigMozzyDog]

David Warner has been one of the players of the tournament so far, and has probably won more games than anyone else. He is third highest scorer in the competition, behind Kohli and De Villiers, and the same is the case for the most sixes hit. The punchy Aussie is one man who could push his side to the title.

Mustafizur Rahman deserves a mention for the Sunrisers too for simply being so consistent, while Bhuvaneshwar Kumar is the second top wicket taker in the IPL. That illustrates the balance they have in their side, and they should have enough to translate that into a win over Delhi Daredevils here.

You can back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 4/5 with Paddy Power.

As for the player markets, we’re looking to a middle order maestro who is on the road back to top form.

Yuvraj Singh has put a few scores together of late, and my well enter the fray at four. He could turn out to be a big price for a top batter punt.

 

You can back Yuvraj to be top batsman at 12/1 with Skybet.

[Wanderer89]

Zampa 4/1 with coral to be top Rising Pune bowler tomorrow, He's been immense the last few games. tempting.

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Mumbai to hit more sixes than Gujarat at Evens with Paddy Power

Blessed with some of the cleanest hitters in the game, Mumbai Indians are great at clearing the rope. Between Buttler and Pollard they have produced some stunning knocks during the tournament, and this price looks very big with that in mind.

[BigMozzyDog]

These two sides have had a rollercoaster journey to this point. A point where both know a win will take them through to the play-offs. But which will make it, and which will have to wait another year?

Delhi go into this game after a thrilling win over the already qualified Sunrisers, where KK Nair hit a match-winning 80-odd, snatching victory on the last ball.

They started IPL 9 with only Quinton de Kock scoring any meaningful runs, but since then Pant, Nair, Samson and Duminy have made contributions. And bowling wise, they have remained consistent.

Amit Mishra has had a decent campaign, while Carlos Brathwaite has looked threatening. On top of that, Zaheer Khan has barely gone for a run. But can they bowl well enough to contain an RCB side that is in supreme form.

Last time out, Kohli and Gayle fired Bangalore to 211 in just 15 overs against Kings XI Punjab, and they managed 248 against the already qualified Gujarat Lions. With De Villiers, Kohli and now Gayle in form, they are favourites for the title, even with needing to win this game.

Gayle’s return to form will be a relief as it takes pressure off Kohli and De Villiers at the top of the order. The big Jamaican looked incredible as he smashed eight sixes in a rapid 73 - and it’s only a matter of time before he returns to his destructive best, just ready for the final four.

Virat Kohli, meanwhile, has been incredible from game one.

The |Indian test skipper has nearly 900 runs, including four tons. His has been the most remarkable batting display in IPL history. And alongside AB de Villiers, dominates all of the batting stats. Most sixes, highest scores and most runs. Only David Warner has proven to be a match for this duo.

While it is generally unwise to pick a side purely based on the form of one discipline, that’s exactly what we’re doing here. RCB should beat Delhi Daredevils comfortably.

But, with the prices looking pretty short, wherever you’re betting, we’re taking a look at the player scores and sixes lines.

Over 14 sixes is a shoe-in here, in fact Bangalore might manage that on their own. They might even manage it in the power play.

You can bet on +14 sixes in the match at evens with Bet365.

As for the player scores, you can bet on a player to score a hundred. And with Kohli having four, de Villiers two, gayle plenty in the locker, and de Kock being perfectly capable, I like the look of yes.

You can back any player to score a ton at 5/1 with Ladbrokes.

[BigMozzyDog]

Suresh Raina’s Gujarat Lions side have proven themselves, in their first IPL season, to be a match for any side in this competition, topping the table and making it to the first qualifier against Royal Challengers Bangalore. But this must surely be their sternest test.

The winner of this game will automatically qualify for the final, while the loser will need to beat the winner of the eliminator game in order to make the last two. It is a fresh format that adds even more excitement to the closing stages of the tournament.

The competition has been more volatile than ever this year, with so many sides being competitive and taking points of the big names. It has shown the value of what the West Indies had at the World Cup. Balance and unity. Both these sides can claim those traits, to some degree.

The success of the Gujarat Lions has been built on how well they recruited, added to the class of Suresh Raina in this competition. He is hanging on to his position as top IPL runscorer of all time, and will be keen to extend his lead over Kohli here.

Gujarat’s overseas offer some of the most consistent threat of any side, with Dwayne Smith a perennial performer in this competition, Dwayne Bravo one of the best bowlers in the world, and Finch and McCullum, an opening partnership that would even keep Dale Steyn awake at night. But they do have an achilles heel.

Aside from Bravo, they look ordinary with the ball. And if any side will exploit that, it’s RCB.

Coming into this game with the best form in the competition, Kohli’s side look formidable. We’ve talked on many occasions about the batting quality in their ranks, but it really doesn’t get old. Some of their hitting power is extraordinary.

Kohli and Gayle fired Bangalore to 211 in just 15 overs against Kings XI Punjab, and they managed 248 against the already qualified Gujarat Lions. With De Villiers, Kohli and now Gayle in form, they are favourites for the title, even with needing to win this game.

Gayle’s return to form will be a relief as it takes pressure off Kohli and De Villiers at the top of the order. The big Jamaican looked incredible as he smashed eight sixes in a rapid 73 - and it’s only a matter of time before he returns to his destructive best, just ready for the final.

Add to that Shane Watson and the form keeper, Rahul, it’s easy to see why they have won their last four home games.

And their bowling, which was perceived as a weakness, has become a strength too. Yazvendra Chahal is top wicket taker in the competition, and a few of their seamers have started to look good too.

Instead of looking to the straight win market, we’re taking on the boundaries line. The Cheteshwami Stadium is one of the smallest, and should make for a run fest.

You can back +44.5 boundaries at 5/6 with William Hill.

As for the player markets, we’re looking to Sreenath Aravind in the top bowler field. The Indian seamer has grown into the competition, and has looked very threatening at times. Bowling at the top opens up a wicket taking opportunity, and he is yet to fail in the wickets column so far.

You can back Aravind to be top bowler at 9/1 with Paddy Power.

[potus]

The boundaries tip looks a great one, although I would be wary of describing Chris Gayle as being in form, I believe he scored 1 run in his last match? 90% of the time the guy is a liability and he is definitely the most overrated player out there. It's probably only because they have De Villiers coming in at 3 that Bangalore can afford to carry Gayle because I think for most teams he would be a luxury they couldn't afford to risk. I think he needs to find a new role as a finisher. 

[TheBeast]

If RCB win the toss they are going to chase down that target no matter what as Gujrat Lions just doesn't seem to have the bowling prowess that could stop Virat Kohli as of now. 

So the -2.5 wickets handicap will be easy money IF RCB win the toss... Gud luck everyone... 

Edited May 24, 2016 by TheBeast
Forgot to mention the tip

[manc111]

13 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:

Suresh Raina’s Gujarat Lions side have proven themselves, in their first IPL season, to be a match for any side in this competition, topping the table and making it to the first qualifier against Royal Challengers Bangalore. But this must surely be their sternest test.

The winner of this game will automatically qualify for the final, while the loser will need to beat the winner of the eliminator game in order to make the last two. It is a fresh format that adds even more excitement to the closing stages of the tournament.

The competition has been more volatile than ever this year, with so many sides being competitive and taking points of the big names. It has shown the value of what the West Indies had at the World Cup. Balance and unity. Both these sides can claim those traits, to some degree.

The success of the Gujarat Lions has been built on how well they recruited, added to the class of Suresh Raina in this competition. He is hanging on to his position as top IPL runscorer of all time, and will be keen to extend his lead over Kohli here.

Gujarat’s overseas offer some of the most consistent threat of any side, with Dwayne Smith a perennial performer in this competition, Dwayne Bravo one of the best bowlers in the world, and Finch and McCullum, an opening partnership that would even keep Dale Steyn awake at night. But they do have an achilles heel.

Aside from Bravo, they look ordinary with the ball. And if any side will exploit that, it’s RCB.

Coming into this game with the best form in the competition, Kohli’s side look formidable. We’ve talked on many occasions about the batting quality in their ranks, but it really doesn’t get old. Some of their hitting power is extraordinary.

Kohli and Gayle fired Bangalore to 211 in just 15 overs against Kings XI Punjab, and they managed 248 against the already qualified Gujarat Lions. With De Villiers, Kohli and now Gayle in form, they are favourites for the title, even with needing to win this game.

Gayle’s return to form will be a relief as it takes pressure off Kohli and De Villiers at the top of the order. The big Jamaican looked incredible as he smashed eight sixes in a rapid 73 - and it’s only a matter of time before he returns to his destructive best, just ready for the final.

Add to that Shane Watson and the form keeper, Rahul, it’s easy to see why they have won their last four home games.

And their bowling, which was perceived as a weakness, has become a strength too. Yazvendra Chahal is top wicket taker in the competition, and a few of their seamers have started to look good too.

Instead of looking to the straight win market, we’re taking on the boundaries line. The Cheteshwami Stadium is one of the smallest, and should make for a run fest.

You can back +44.5 boundaries at 5/6 with William Hill.

As for the player markets, we’re looking to Sreenath Aravind in the top bowler field. The Indian seamer has grown into the competition, and has looked very threatening at times. Bowling at the top opens up a wicket taking opportunity, and he is yet to fail in the wickets column so far.

You can back Aravind to be top bowler at 9/1 with Paddy Power.

who is the "we're" your on about m8? just curious.

[BigMozzyDog]

On 24/05/2016, 12:41:15, manc111 said:

 

Neither of these sides have ever won the IPL. A remarkable stat in it’s own right, given the sheer amount of quality that has graced the Chinnaswamy Stadium over the last nine years.

This game promises to be a spectacle like no other, with some goliaths of the game going head to head in a batsman’s paradise. We could see some serious runs.

While David Warner has played an enormous role in the Sunrisers’ rampage to this stage, the same can be said for Virat Kohli, who could pass 1,000 runs this afternoon. His four tons are unprecedented as he has returned the most impressive campaign of any individual, ever.

 

More than Warner, however, he has been supported by AB de Villiers, who has blasted the highest score, and the most sixes of anyone in the competition. He also has a strike rate of 170. The impetus he provides at three is unrivalled.

And what of Chris Gayle? There have been signs that the massive Jamaican is returning to form over the last two weeks. Even given his unusually fallow season, the has the big game ability to take this one away from the Sunrisers given half a chance.

 

A big question mark over RCB has always been their bowling, but since they turned their form around in the group stage, they have had a series of key displays with the ball.

Watson and Chahal each have 20 wickets, joint second in the tournament. Incidentally, Bhuvi Kumar leads the charts for Sunrisers, on 23.

Watson showed his death bowling prowess in the Big Bash, where he was a standout performer. As for Chahal, he provides the leg spin option that seems essential to any successful T20 side in the modern game.

England’s Chris Jordan also finds himself in an IPL final, and although he’s been expensive before, he is also one of the finest yorker bowlers in the game at the moment. But standing between these players and that IPL trophy are the broad shoulders of an in form Aussie.

A blistering 93 carried Sunrisers to this final, and David Warner would like nothing better than to complete his ninth half-century of the tournament and seal a true upset.

Backing up Warner are Shikhar Dhawan, who has returned to his old form in patches so far, and Yuvraj and Moises Henriques have started to chip in around him. But they only have one world-class batter, unlike RCB who have three. If they lose Warner, they could be really struggling. It’s hard to back a team on one man’s performances, so we’re looking to the home side.

 

You can back RCB to win at 8/13 with Sportingbet.

 

Another market I like the look of is the highest individual score line. There are some big players in this game who have consistently make telling contributions. Warner, de Villiers and Kohli have 20 half centuries and 5 tons between them already.

 

You can back the highest individual score to be +70.5 at 9/10 with BetVictor.

 

As for the player markets, top bowler looks interesting. We’re going with Shane Watson at a big price. He’s proven his prowess with 20 wickets to date, and should have the opportunity to pick up cheap scalps at the death.

You can back Watson to be top bowler at 6/1 with Skybet.