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BigMozzyDog

IPL 2016

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9 hours ago, Wanderer89 said:

In this 20 over format the games are so tight that I tend to stay away from the outright match betting. Like yesterday Bangalore were such poor odds so I looked to the 6s market. Coral had a market Bangalore to score over 6.5 sixes at 4/6. Low odds , yes, but they have such big hitters in their team I thought they could smash this even Gayle alone could manage it. Gayle didn't even score a run and it still crossed the line.

Today skybet are offering 10/11 for under 11.5 sixes. Both of these teams have struggled so far in this tournament. The sunrisers last home match didn't cover the line as they struggled to to get to a poor 142. Yes, in the first match they were chasing a huge total of 227 against Bangalore so had no choice but to go for big hits. Mumbai have yet to cover this line so far this tournament and although the sunrisers have big hitter Morgan I just can't see this having more than 11 sixes, I think it will edgey as both teams could really do with a win.

Excellent tip. Even with a donkey three balls of bowling gifting three sixes, the bet was still comfortable. Really good stuff, thank you. 

 

Keep it up, this forum needs more tips like this. 

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4pts KKR to beat Kings XI Punjab at 7/10 with Boylesports

1pt Gambhir to be top batsman in the match at 11/2 with Skybet

Kings XI Punjab sprung a real surprise when they beat the Rising Pune Supergiants, but they will need a similar performance here to defeat a strong Kolkata side when the teams meet in Mohali.

Last time out it took a strong bowling display to bring Punjab into the game, before telling contributions from Vijay, Vohra and Maxwell got them over the line. Maxwell’s knock was particularly impressive, though if history is anything to go by, we might have to wait a while for the next one.

Yes, they upset our tip against Pune, but this Punjab side is still pretty weak, and has one of the poorest record since the competition started.

Both their big names, Maxwell and Miller are known to be hit and miss, with both capable of special things every so often. They are good players, but won’t perform often enough to produce regular results for their team.

Shaun Marsh has made his comeback, but made no runs in two knock. He is a man who is often imperious in the BBL, but struggles in the original franchise event. They need more from these players, and even then, look light on proven match-winning ability.

As for their opponents, Kolkata welcome back Sunil Narine, and they are a side packed with match winners.

The Kolkata openers have worked particularly well, with Robin Uthappa and Gautam Gambhir seemingly clicking from the first game. There’s hardly been a failure between the pair of them, with Gambir standing out with a sparkling 90 in the convincing defeat of Sunrisers Hyderabad last time. They are 2-1 from three games, and they look good to improve that record here.

In Andre Russell, they have one of the most complete T20 cricketers in the world, a three dimensional athlete who is the epitome of the modern pro. He bowls fast, fields well and smacks the ball miles. If Chris Morris is worth $1m, this guy’s worth four.

In the middle order they have Manish Pandey, who has started this competition well, and looks set to establish himself in the India ODI team this year. It’s hard to get too excited by Yusuf Pathan, as he hasn’t scored a run in what seems like a thousand years, but Shakib al Hasan is a strong player.

As for their bowling, they have Narine, fresh from remodelling his action - hopefully it won’t do to him what it did to Saeed Ajmal. Russell is quality too, and they may also welcome Brad Hogg to add even more quality to the bowling. They will miss John Hastings for the remainder of the tournament, but they have enough to cope, starting here in Mohali where a win is on the cards.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/n7U5Sl

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Yesterday panned out as I expected so a nice profit there.

 

Today we have Kings XI Punjab at home to Kolkata. Kings XI lie rock bottom of the table having lost both their home games. Kolkata batting has been really impressive so far and I expect them to continue this today. Unibet are offering  9/10 for Kolkata to score more 4s than their opponents. In all of their 3 games so far Kings opponents have scored more 4s than them and I don't see this changing today against a very strong Kolkata side. Kolkata's openers pretty much won the last match on their own in their last game scoring 16 4s between them. Their openers also did this in their first game smashing 15 4's only losing 1 wicket. Kings Punjab have been struggling and are desperate to put in a performance. I just cant see this being today. Kolkata to score more 4s.  

Edited by Wanderer89

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The Wankhede Stadium is an interesting place to play for most people. Virat Kohli is no exception. The last time he played here, he bowled the final over in a World Cup semi-final. We certainly won’t be quoting you any odds on him turning the arm over against Mumbai here.

Mumbai Indians are struggling just off the foot of the table with just one win from four, and one glaringly obvious reason for their struggles is that their skipper, Rohit Sharma, is languishing in the middle order. He is one of the best openers in the business, and alongside Martin Guptill, would form a serious partnership. Alas, he isn’t selfish enough to really grab hold of this team.

As for his opposite number, Virat Kohli, there is a man who doesn’t open for his country, who is willing to step up when captain in a domestic competition. Perhaps there is the difference between the two men.

Virat Kohli finds himself the leader of an all star cast that has so far been led by himself and AB de Villiers, both of whom have managed big scores.

Somewhat subdued has been the big Jamaican blaster, Chris Gayle. He is surely primed to explode onto the scene at some stage… preferably when there is no left arm seam on the scene. Sadly for the fans, it won’t be this game, with the World Universe Boss returning to home for the birth of his son. In his place comes talented Aussie, Travis Head, who showed plenty of skill in the BBL.

Any side without Gayle is weaker talent wise, but RCB could find themselves with more balance, with ability done the order with Head and Jadhav. Perhaps they will be better for the arrival of a little Gayle Storm.

This is a game that is not easy to predict, and if Sharma were opening with Guptill it might just tip the balance, but instead, I am going with an RCB side which has enjoyed two significant partnerships already between Kohli and De Villiers. Those two in firm is enough to win any game.

Royal Challengers Bangalore are available at 8/11 with Skybet.

Rather than tackling the very competitive player markets in this game, I’m looking to the sixes field, where the RCB are a huge price to hit the most maximums. AB and Kohli could decimate this market in just a few overs, with the Protea the likely candidate to make a mess of the opposition bowling.


RCB are 10/11 with Paddy Power to hit the most sixes.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/88F4J0

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Another comfortable winner yesterday :cigar

 

Today is a very tough game to call. Bangalore will be missing their big hitter Gayle. He hasn't been in form in the last couple of matches but it's still a big loss so a lot depends on if Kohli and De Villiers can keep up their fine form. If they can't, I really fancy Mumbai to take this one. Both of these teams will be up there come the end of the tournament and Mumbai, who are usually very good at home have been struggling recently but I think are a better all round team. Bangalores bowling worries me and with Bangalore desperately missing Starc and now without Gayle for 2 matches. These are big players missing. Hopefully Sharma will push himself up the order and will bring out great value in the home team to come out on top here at 6/5 with bet365

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4pts Gujarat Lions to win at 4/5 with BoyleSports

Gujarat Lions have made a riproaring start to their first IPL, winning three from three, and looking very strong. In Dwayne Bravo they have one of the premier bowlers in the IPL, while Brendon McCullum at the top of the order offers real class with the bat. They are a side with a proper balance, unlike teams such as Bangalore, who are too heavily weighted towards the batting line-up.

Aaron Finch adds further quality at the top of the order, and in James Faulkner they have a player who is very much a Bravo in the making.

They are a big price to beat a Sunrisers side that is too hit and miss to inspire confidence.

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Kholi and De Villiers failed to take the game after getting in yesterday so another win. Mumbai looked very good. :cigar

 

Today we have Gujarat Lions Vs The Sunrisers. The lions have won 3 out 3 matches so far and are looking very balanced. This is particularly due to their excellent bowling. They have been chasing on all 3 occasions and managed to keep the totals reletivbly low 161, 163 and 143. The chases on all 3 occasions have been won thanks to Finch who has scored over 50 runs on all 3 occasions. Finch is a doubt for this game which could be a huge blow to their batting. William Hill and Boylesports are offering 5/6 on under 12.5 sixes. On all 3 occasions of the lions matches this line has failed to of been covered 6, 8 and 12. The Sunrisers have only covered it once out of their 3 matches but that's due to Bangalore big hitters smashing it around! Morgan is a threat but he seems to be lacking form and I'm well aware of Warner's 90 score in the last match and the Sunrisers will be hoping he continues today but with the lions impressive bowling performances, the potential loss of finch, Mccullums lack of form and a difficult batting wicket, I'm going for 12 sixes or under today at 5/6.

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4pts Rising Pune Supergiants to win at 10/11 with Coral

Thus far the batting strength of ABDV, Chris Gayle and Virat Kohli hasn't paid dividends for the Royal Challengers Bangalore. They lack balance and have a pretty average bowling attack. David Wiese has been dreadful so far which hasn't helped, but even if he had performed, they still look light.

Here they come up against a team that can match them in the batting department, but with a better formed bowling unit. Yes Pune have only won one from three, but if they can sort out their last five overs with the bat, they look like they could be a force in this competition.

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Wanderer, you are absolutely on fire with your tips. You are making what has become an awkward tournament to bet on look rather easy. Keep it up, you have been a breath of fresh air to this forum, thanks. 

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under 12.5 sixes and 1 six in the whole match. :cigar

 

Today we have Rising Pune Vs Banglaore. Both these teams ooze with batting quality. Banglaores odds are so tempting but I just can't trust their bowling, it's just not good enough without Starc! So I'm looking again towards the sixes market. Unibet are offering 19/20 for over 11.5 sixes. Bangalore will have Kholi, De Villiers and Watson at the top of the order who could easily cover this line alone. Rising Pune have big hitter Pieterson and the in form Du Plessis. Punes bowling is better than Bangalores but I'm hoping the strength of bangalores batting can make sure this line still gets covered. Would of been interesting to see what the line would of been with Gayle in the side but even so, these two sides are well capabale of getting 12 sixes or over between them at 19/20.

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Pieterson getting injured and having to retire after the first ball :lol not ideal haha. Both dominated with the bat but failed with only 10 sixes. 

 

Going to sit out today but a potentially awful game with kings Punjab Vs The Sunrisers. Kings have been awful and sunrisers heavily relying on Warner. If he has an off game we could be looking at low scores. Any thoughts? 

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4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Kings XI Punjab

 

Seemingly out of nowhere, Sunrisers have become a credible force in this year’s IPL, thanks in no small part to the form of David Warner. But can they maintain the form that’s got them into the mix?

 

Warner has now registered three 50s in four games, with over 230 runs to his name. He’s been brutal too, regularly scoring at a strike rate of 150+. His opening partner finally got in on the act last time too. Shikhar Dhawan is a class act, and the half century against Gujarat will do his confidence the world of good.

 

A key to Sunrisers’ relative success has been down to some astute signings. Moises Henriques for one. The experienced Aussie has contributed with bat and ball, and looks solid in all aspects of the game.

 

Another is Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi seamer has proved to be one of the hardest people to get away, and has regularly given his team a great start. On the back of a strong showing in the World Cup, this young man appears to be a real star of the future, and one to consider in the player markers moving forward.

 

Sunrisers have maintained a very settled side so far, and are unlikely to make changes here, but the same can’t be said of Kings XI Punjab. Having dropped Mitchell Johnson last time in favour of Kyle Abbott, that decision may be reversed here.

 

With their two big name players, David Miller and Glenn Maxwell, so far having mustered just over 70 runs between them, another win seems a long way off for them.

 

On paper their side isn’t too bad, but they are rooted to the bottom for a reason. That reason is a lack of proper balance, and some poor auction additions. They lack a quality slow bowler, and have far too many players who only have their day once in a while. Miller and Maxwell fall in to that category. David Warner doesn’t.

 

Sunrisers, on home turf today, should have this one covered. They have consistency with bat and ball, with a mixture of explosive power and reliable contributors.


You can back Sunrisers to win at 8/11 with Stan James.

As for the player markets, it is difficult to look past the dominance of David Warner. He represents huge value in the overall top batsman stakes, on the back of two big scores against Gujarat Lions and Mumbai Indians.

Wriddhimam Saha for Kings XI is an odd price in the same market. He scores the winning century in this competition a couple of years ago, and could bat at four. He’s 35/1 with Paddy Power.

 

Another big price is Glenn Maxwell for Kings XI. He is a player who contributes less than his talent would suggest, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t got a match winning score in him. At 19/1 with Paddy Power, he is long.

 

Full preview: http://punts.pl/S3VK2Y

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4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Pune at 4/5 with Stan James

The Sunrisers Hyderabad are on a serious run, winning their last three games, largely thanks to the efforts of David Warner. Meanwhile their opponents are having a shocker, especially with KP ruled out for the rest of the campaign.

The plight of the Supergiants has been a surprising one, with their bowling standing up to scrutiny, but their batting failing to fire. They have been in promising positions on several occasions, but have struggled to manage the 12-15 an over in the final few to set an imposing total.

Steve Smith is one man Pune might have expected more from. The Aussie skipper, looks set to move up the order to replace Kevin Pietersen at three. The problem is that T20 doesn’t seem to be his natural game, especially on these surfaces.

Somewhat surprising has been the rise to prominence of Ajinkya Rahane, who has probably been the star turn so far. He’s always been a serious player, but this year he has shown an ability to open up with a real threat.

Faf du Plessis has also scored runs, but he must count himself as one of the main culprits for their inability to accelerate. He’s been in at key points and not really produced the big shots in the big moments.

As for Sunrisers, David Warner has been a bit special so far. He’s managed four half-centuries out of five knocks. He’s been in brutal form too, regularly hitting at a strike rate of 150+ from the off.

In many games he has acted as a figurehead, getting the runs needed to get Hyderabad over the line. But in the last game, Shikhar Dhawan came to the party. It’s a great sign for Sunrisers, with Dhawan being a player who possesses all the quality in the world, but has been going through a severe slump in all formats. His 45 in the last game will give him a chance to act as foil for Warner moving forward.

Deepak Hooda, the astoundingly expensive but talented Indian, and Eoin Morgan make up a solid enough middle order. However, their secret weapon has been Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi has been an absolute revelation, and is probably one of the best T20 seamers in the world at the moment.

Last time he secured amazing figures of 2 for 9 from four overs. Those are astonishing numbers. Having players who can do that in the later overs is another potential match-winner. They should have enough to beat Pune here.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/G3c4X1

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33 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:

4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Pune at 4/5 with Stan James

The Sunrisers Hyderabad are on a serious run, winning their last three games, largely thanks to the efforts of David Warner. Meanwhile their opponents are having a shocker, especially with KP ruled out for the rest of the campaign.

The plight of the Supergiants has been a surprising one, with their bowling standing up to scrutiny, but their batting failing to fire. They have been in promising positions on several occasions, but have struggled to manage the 12-15 an over in the final few to set an imposing total.

Steve Smith is one man Pune might have expected more from. The Aussie skipper, looks set to move up the order to replace Kevin Pietersen at three. The problem is that T20 doesn’t seem to be his natural game, especially on these surfaces.

Somewhat surprising has been the rise to prominence of Ajinkya Rahane, who has probably been the star turn so far. He’s always been a serious player, but this year he has shown an ability to open up with a real threat.

Faf du Plessis has also scored runs, but he must count himself as one of the main culprits for their inability to accelerate. He’s been in at key points and not really produced the big shots in the big moments.

As for Sunrisers, David Warner has been a bit special so far. He’s managed four half-centuries out of five knocks. He’s been in brutal form too, regularly hitting at a strike rate of 150+ from the off.

In many games he has acted as a figurehead, getting the runs needed to get Hyderabad over the line. But in the last game, Shikhar Dhawan came to the party. It’s a great sign for Sunrisers, with Dhawan being a player who possesses all the quality in the world, but has been going through a severe slump in all formats. His 45 in the last game will give him a chance to act as foil for Warner moving forward.

Deepak Hooda, the astoundingly expensive but talented Indian, and Eoin Morgan make up a solid enough middle order. However, their secret weapon has been Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi has been an absolute revelation, and is probably one of the best T20 seamers in the world at the moment.

Last time he secured amazing figures of 2 for 9 from four overs. Those are astonishing numbers. Having players who can do that in the later overs is another potential match-winner. They should have enough to beat Pune here.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/G3c4X1

Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it? 

 

The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value? 

 

Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.

 

As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

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As Iv said before the match betting is so tough. the games are so close sometimes the value is actually in the underdog sometimes. The other markets are much better. 

The toss is massive in this 20 over format sometimes it's good to place the bet just after the toss is won before the odds drop. Many of the games the teams are finding it easier to chase. The last thing I do is go for the favourite every single time your destined to lose overall. 

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alot of todays game is whether warner is out early,if they take him early then pune have a massive chance of winning this game,i havent looked but im sure warner has been their leading scorer every game they have played this year so far and the remainder have done little or not enough if warner goes early they could struggle,ok there is no kp but there is still alot of good players,i think this game is evenly matched and maybe more 50/50 than the price suggest.

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Everything depends on the toss..... If Sunrisers win the toss they will elect to chase and Pune certainly don't have a chance of getting anything beyond 160 (luckily) against an in form bowling attack of Sunrisers..... 

But if Sunrisers lose the toss there will be an interesting turn of events because as we have seen the ball tends to swing in the earlier overs. But if Warner gets going and they get anything beyond 175 (which they will if Warner lasts even half the innings) I don't think the Super giants have the ability as of now to chase down that target..... 

The best bet here is to place just after the toss as Wanderer said.... Or if you have to place a pre match bet it's just better to go with Sunrisers just because they are a stronger team..... 

But as I have repeatedly pointed out during the T20WC, best bet is an in play bet..... Gud luck everyone.... 

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2 hours ago, TheBeast said:

Everything depends on the toss..... If Sunrisers win the toss they will elect to chase and Pune certainly don't have a chance of getting anything beyond 160 (luckily) against an in form bowling attack of Sunrisers..... 

But if Sunrisers lose the toss there will be an interesting turn of events because as we have seen the ball tends to swing in the earlier overs. But if Warner gets going and they get anything beyond 175 (which they will if Warner lasts even half the innings) I don't think the Super giants have the ability as of now to chase down that target..... 

The best bet here is to place just after the toss as Wanderer said.... Or if you have to place a pre match bet it's just better to go with Sunrisers just because they are a stronger team..... 

But as I have repeatedly pointed out during the T20WC, best bet is an in play bet..... Gud luck everyone.... 

no everything depends on warner.

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On 25/04/2016, 22:48:17, potus said:

Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it? 

 

The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value? 

 

Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.

 

As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

I choose the markets where I see value. If you'd followed all of my match betting tips, you wouldn't have lost much, if at all. These tournaments tend to become clearer towards the end of the group phase, so hopefully there will be less of a lottery across everything from the sixes lines to highest opening partnership.

Sunrisers' performance was a particularly strange one on form, and I felt they were more than decent at 4/5.

For what it's worth I think that Delhi Daredevils are big at 7/5 with Boylesports to beat Gujarat. I'm backing them and Mishra as top bowler. This could be a low scorer, so I'll be staying away from the sixes bets just in case.

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On 25/04/2016, 22:48:17, potus said:

Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it? 

 

The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value? 

 

Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.

 

As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

 

Perhaps so, but you thought me tipping the Windies in the T20 World Cup was madness, and that turned out ok (as did a lot of match bets).

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7 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:

I choose the markets where I see value. If you'd followed all of my match betting tips, you wouldn't have lost much, if at all. These tournaments tend to become clearer towards the end of the group phase, so hopefully there will be less of a lottery across everything from the sixes lines to highest opening partnership.

Sunrisers' performance was a particularly strange one on form, and I felt they were more than decent at 4/5.

For what it's worth I think that Delhi Daredevils are big at 7/5 with Boylesports to beat Gujarat. I'm backing them and Mishra as top bowler. This could be a low scorer, so I'll be staying away from the sixes bets just in case.

not slating you m8 but the sunrisers performance was not "particulary strange" they lost warner early which they havent done in this tourney ok dhawan scored 56,but off 53 balls??  did he think he was playing a test match? warner is carrying the sunrisers and without him they just wont score enough.

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Today we have Delhi vs Gujarat. I'm not going to touch the match better today but one market I have seen value in is Gujarat to score more sixes at evens with stanjames. I think Gujarat are the better all round team and on a wicket were there hasn't really been any big scores, I still fancy the lions to have control of this one with both bat and ball. In dwayne bravo they have one of the best bowlers in the competition and dehli could really struggle against him on this wicket. The lions top order is also were I see the value in this bet. Whether it's Smith and Mccullum opening or Finch and Mccullum. This is a very strong top order, especially with Mccullum finally coming in to form. Short boundaries at this ground also. The lions to score more sixes at evens. 

Edited by Wanderer89

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4pts +10.5 sixes in the Pune vs Mumbai game at 5/6 with William Hill

Given the brutal nature of these two batting sides in recent weeks, this sixes line looks a bit generous. Some of the hitting from Pollard, Buttler, Pandya, Sharma and Smith makes this a very enticing price indeed. The game itself is a tight one, so with neither side looking great with the ball, this looks like the best betting option to me.

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