IPL 2016

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Gujarat Lions to win at 4/5 with BoyleSports

Gujarat Lions have made a riproaring start to their first IPL, winning three from three, and looking very strong. In Dwayne Bravo they have one of the premier bowlers in the IPL, while Brendon McCullum at the top of the order offers real class with the bat. They are a side with a proper balance, unlike teams such as Bangalore, who are too heavily weighted towards the batting line-up.

Aaron Finch adds further quality at the top of the order, and in James Faulkner they have a player who is very much a Bravo in the making.

They are a big price to beat a Sunrisers side that is too hit and miss to inspire confidence.

[Wanderer89]

Kholi and De Villiers failed to take the game after getting in yesterday so another win. Mumbai looked very good. 

 

Today we have Gujarat Lions Vs The Sunrisers. The lions have won 3 out 3 matches so far and are looking very balanced. This is particularly due to their excellent bowling. They have been chasing on all 3 occasions and managed to keep the totals reletivbly low 161, 163 and 143. The chases on all 3 occasions have been won thanks to Finch who has scored over 50 runs on all 3 occasions. Finch is a doubt for this game which could be a huge blow to their batting. William Hill and Boylesports are offering 5/6 on under 12.5 sixes. On all 3 occasions of the lions matches this line has failed to of been covered 6, 8 and 12. The Sunrisers have only covered it once out of their 3 matches but that's due to Bangalore big hitters smashing it around! Morgan is a threat but he seems to be lacking form and I'm well aware of Warner's 90 score in the last match and the Sunrisers will be hoping he continues today but with the lions impressive bowling performances, the potential loss of finch, Mccullums lack of form and a difficult batting wicket, I'm going for 12 sixes or under today at 5/6.

[manc111]

warner has carried the sunrisers every game,if he didnt score theyd be lucky to make 100 in every game.

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Rising Pune Supergiants to win at 10/11 with Coral

Thus far the batting strength of ABDV, Chris Gayle and Virat Kohli hasn't paid dividends for the Royal Challengers Bangalore. They lack balance and have a pretty average bowling attack. David Wiese has been dreadful so far which hasn't helped, but even if he had performed, they still look light.

Here they come up against a team that can match them in the batting department, but with a better formed bowling unit. Yes Pune have only won one from three, but if they can sort out their last five overs with the bat, they look like they could be a force in this competition.

[potus]

Wanderer, you are absolutely on fire with your tips. You are making what has become an awkward tournament to bet on look rather easy. Keep it up, you have been a breath of fresh air to this forum, thanks. 

[Wanderer89]

under 12.5 sixes and 1 six in the whole match.

 

Today we have Rising Pune Vs Banglaore. Both these teams ooze with batting quality. Banglaores odds are so tempting but I just can't trust their bowling, it's just not good enough without Starc! So I'm looking again towards the sixes market. Unibet are offering 19/20 for over 11.5 sixes. Bangalore will have Kholi, De Villiers and Watson at the top of the order who could easily cover this line alone. Rising Pune have big hitter Pieterson and the in form Du Plessis. Punes bowling is better than Bangalores but I'm hoping the strength of bangalores batting can make sure this line still gets covered. Would of been interesting to see what the line would of been with Gayle in the side but even so, these two sides are well capabale of getting 12 sixes or over between them at 19/20.

[Wanderer89]

Pieterson getting injured and having to retire after the first ball  not ideal haha. Both dominated with the bat but failed with only 10 sixes. 

 

Going to sit out today but a potentially awful game with kings Punjab Vs The Sunrisers. Kings have been awful and sunrisers heavily relying on Warner. If he has an off game we could be looking at low scores. Any thoughts? 

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Kings XI Punjab

 

Seemingly out of nowhere, Sunrisers have become a credible force in this year’s IPL, thanks in no small part to the form of David Warner. But can they maintain the form that’s got them into the mix?

 

Warner has now registered three 50s in four games, with over 230 runs to his name. He’s been brutal too, regularly scoring at a strike rate of 150+. His opening partner finally got in on the act last time too. Shikhar Dhawan is a class act, and the half century against Gujarat will do his confidence the world of good.

 

A key to Sunrisers’ relative success has been down to some astute signings. Moises Henriques for one. The experienced Aussie has contributed with bat and ball, and looks solid in all aspects of the game.

 

Another is Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi seamer has proved to be one of the hardest people to get away, and has regularly given his team a great start. On the back of a strong showing in the World Cup, this young man appears to be a real star of the future, and one to consider in the player markers moving forward.

 

Sunrisers have maintained a very settled side so far, and are unlikely to make changes here, but the same can’t be said of Kings XI Punjab. Having dropped Mitchell Johnson last time in favour of Kyle Abbott, that decision may be reversed here.

 

With their two big name players, David Miller and Glenn Maxwell, so far having mustered just over 70 runs between them, another win seems a long way off for them.

 

On paper their side isn’t too bad, but they are rooted to the bottom for a reason. That reason is a lack of proper balance, and some poor auction additions. They lack a quality slow bowler, and have far too many players who only have their day once in a while. Miller and Maxwell fall in to that category. David Warner doesn’t.

 

Sunrisers, on home turf today, should have this one covered. They have consistency with bat and ball, with a mixture of explosive power and reliable contributors.

You can back Sunrisers to win at 8/11 with Stan James.

As for the player markets, it is difficult to look past the dominance of David Warner. He represents huge value in the overall top batsman stakes, on the back of two big scores against Gujarat Lions and Mumbai Indians.

Wriddhimam Saha for Kings XI is an odd price in the same market. He scores the winning century in this competition a couple of years ago, and could bat at four. He’s 35/1 with Paddy Power.

 

Another big price is Glenn Maxwell for Kings XI. He is a player who contributes less than his talent would suggest, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t got a match winning score in him. At 19/1 with Paddy Power, he is long.

 

Full preview: http://punts.pl/S3VK2Y

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Pune at 4/5 with Stan James

The Sunrisers Hyderabad are on a serious run, winning their last three games, largely thanks to the efforts of David Warner. Meanwhile their opponents are having a shocker, especially with KP ruled out for the rest of the campaign.

The plight of the Supergiants has been a surprising one, with their bowling standing up to scrutiny, but their batting failing to fire. They have been in promising positions on several occasions, but have struggled to manage the 12-15 an over in the final few to set an imposing total.

Steve Smith is one man Pune might have expected more from. The Aussie skipper, looks set to move up the order to replace Kevin Pietersen at three. The problem is that T20 doesn’t seem to be his natural game, especially on these surfaces.

Somewhat surprising has been the rise to prominence of Ajinkya Rahane, who has probably been the star turn so far. He’s always been a serious player, but this year he has shown an ability to open up with a real threat.

Faf du Plessis has also scored runs, but he must count himself as one of the main culprits for their inability to accelerate. He’s been in at key points and not really produced the big shots in the big moments.

As for Sunrisers, David Warner has been a bit special so far. He’s managed four half-centuries out of five knocks. He’s been in brutal form too, regularly hitting at a strike rate of 150+ from the off.

In many games he has acted as a figurehead, getting the runs needed to get Hyderabad over the line. But in the last game, Shikhar Dhawan came to the party. It’s a great sign for Sunrisers, with Dhawan being a player who possesses all the quality in the world, but has been going through a severe slump in all formats. His 45 in the last game will give him a chance to act as foil for Warner moving forward.

Deepak Hooda, the astoundingly expensive but talented Indian, and Eoin Morgan make up a solid enough middle order. However, their secret weapon has been Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi has been an absolute revelation, and is probably one of the best T20 seamers in the world at the moment.

Last time he secured amazing figures of 2 for 9 from four overs. Those are astonishing numbers. Having players who can do that in the later overs is another potential match-winner. They should have enough to beat Pune here.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/G3c4X1

[potus]

33 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:

4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad to beat Pune at 4/5 with Stan James

The Sunrisers Hyderabad are on a serious run, winning their last three games, largely thanks to the efforts of David Warner. Meanwhile their opponents are having a shocker, especially with KP ruled out for the rest of the campaign.

The plight of the Supergiants has been a surprising one, with their bowling standing up to scrutiny, but their batting failing to fire. They have been in promising positions on several occasions, but have struggled to manage the 12-15 an over in the final few to set an imposing total.

Steve Smith is one man Pune might have expected more from. The Aussie skipper, looks set to move up the order to replace Kevin Pietersen at three. The problem is that T20 doesn’t seem to be his natural game, especially on these surfaces.

Somewhat surprising has been the rise to prominence of Ajinkya Rahane, who has probably been the star turn so far. He’s always been a serious player, but this year he has shown an ability to open up with a real threat.

Faf du Plessis has also scored runs, but he must count himself as one of the main culprits for their inability to accelerate. He’s been in at key points and not really produced the big shots in the big moments.

As for Sunrisers, David Warner has been a bit special so far. He’s managed four half-centuries out of five knocks. He’s been in brutal form too, regularly hitting at a strike rate of 150+ from the off.

In many games he has acted as a figurehead, getting the runs needed to get Hyderabad over the line. But in the last game, Shikhar Dhawan came to the party. It’s a great sign for Sunrisers, with Dhawan being a player who possesses all the quality in the world, but has been going through a severe slump in all formats. His 45 in the last game will give him a chance to act as foil for Warner moving forward.

Deepak Hooda, the astoundingly expensive but talented Indian, and Eoin Morgan make up a solid enough middle order. However, their secret weapon has been Mustafizur Rahman. The young Bangladeshi has been an absolute revelation, and is probably one of the best T20 seamers in the world at the moment.

Last time he secured amazing figures of 2 for 9 from four overs. Those are astonishing numbers. Having players who can do that in the later overs is another potential match-winner. They should have enough to beat Pune here.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/G3c4X1

Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it? 

 

The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value? 

 

Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.

 

As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

[Wanderer89]

As Iv said before the match betting is so tough. the games are so close sometimes the value is actually in the underdog sometimes. The other markets are much better. 

The toss is massive in this 20 over format sometimes it's good to place the bet just after the toss is won before the odds drop. Many of the games the teams are finding it easier to chase. The last thing I do is go for the favourite every single time your destined to lose overall. 

[manc111]

alot of todays game is whether warner is out early,if they take him early then pune have a massive chance of winning this game,i havent looked but im sure warner has been their leading scorer every game they have played this year so far and the remainder have done little or not enough if warner goes early they could struggle,ok there is no kp but there is still alot of good players,i think this game is evenly matched and maybe more 50/50 than the price suggest.

[TheBeast]

Everything depends on the toss..... If Sunrisers win the toss they will elect to chase and Pune certainly don't have a chance of getting anything beyond 160 (luckily) against an in form bowling attack of Sunrisers..... 

But if Sunrisers lose the toss there will be an interesting turn of events because as we have seen the ball tends to swing in the earlier overs. But if Warner gets going and they get anything beyond 175 (which they will if Warner lasts even half the innings) I don't think the Super giants have the ability as of now to chase down that target..... 

The best bet here is to place just after the toss as Wanderer said.... Or if you have to place a pre match bet it's just better to go with Sunrisers just because they are a stronger team..... 

But as I have repeatedly pointed out during the T20WC, best bet is an in play bet..... Gud luck everyone.... 

[manc111]

2 hours ago, TheBeast said:

Everything depends on the toss..... If Sunrisers win the toss they will elect to chase and Pune certainly don't have a chance of getting anything beyond 160 (luckily) against an in form bowling attack of Sunrisers..... 

But if Sunrisers lose the toss there will be an interesting turn of events because as we have seen the ball tends to swing in the earlier overs. But if Warner gets going and they get anything beyond 175 (which they will if Warner lasts even half the innings) I don't think the Super giants have the ability as of now to chase down that target..... 

The best bet here is to place just after the toss as Wanderer said.... Or if you have to place a pre match bet it's just better to go with Sunrisers just because they are a stronger team..... 

But as I have repeatedly pointed out during the T20WC, best bet is an in play bet..... Gud luck everyone.... 

no everything depends on warner.

[Wanderer89]

Losing the toss and losing Warner and then a collapse. Oh dear  it was coming! 

[BigMozzyDog]

On 25/04/2016, 22:48:17, potus said:

Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it? 

 

The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value? 

 

Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.

 

As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

I choose the markets where I see value. If you'd followed all of my match betting tips, you wouldn't have lost much, if at all. These tournaments tend to become clearer towards the end of the group phase, so hopefully there will be less of a lottery across everything from the sixes lines to highest opening partnership.

Sunrisers' performance was a particularly strange one on form, and I felt they were more than decent at 4/5.

For what it's worth I think that Delhi Daredevils are big at 7/5 with Boylesports to beat Gujarat. I'm backing them and Mishra as top bowler. This could be a low scorer, so I'll be staying away from the sixes bets just in case.

[BigMozzyDog]

On 25/04/2016, 22:48:17, potus said:

Are you really still seeing value in the match betting markets for this tournament or are you just posting tips for the sake of it? 

 

The tournament has turned into a bit of a lottery and many games have gone completely against the form book or are simply won at the toss rather than on the pitch. Yes, I agree, form and reasonable analysis suggests Sunrisers should win tomorrow but surely odds of 4/5 just look correct rather than particularly good value? 

 

Is it not time to start looking at other markets and accept that this season the match betting market is a lottery and the value if anywhere lies elsewhere? If you don't agree, could you explain why you think there is still value in the match betting markets, as I feel like I've lost a lot of money on the occasions where I've agreed with your match betting tips so far in this tournament. Thanks.

 

As I said recently in another thread, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

 

Perhaps so, but you thought me tipping the Windies in the T20 World Cup was madness, and that turned out ok (as did a lot of match bets).

[manc111]

7 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:

I choose the markets where I see value. If you'd followed all of my match betting tips, you wouldn't have lost much, if at all. These tournaments tend to become clearer towards the end of the group phase, so hopefully there will be less of a lottery across everything from the sixes lines to highest opening partnership.

Sunrisers' performance was a particularly strange one on form, and I felt they were more than decent at 4/5.

For what it's worth I think that Delhi Daredevils are big at 7/5 with Boylesports to beat Gujarat. I'm backing them and Mishra as top bowler. This could be a low scorer, so I'll be staying away from the sixes bets just in case.

not slating you m8 but the sunrisers performance was not "particulary strange" they lost warner early which they havent done in this tourney ok dhawan scored 56,but off 53 balls??  did he think he was playing a test match? warner is carrying the sunrisers and without him they just wont score enough.

[Wanderer89]

Today we have Delhi vs Gujarat. I'm not going to touch the match better today but one market I have seen value in is Gujarat to score more sixes at evens with stanjames. I think Gujarat are the better all round team and on a wicket were there hasn't really been any big scores, I still fancy the lions to have control of this one with both bat and ball. In dwayne bravo they have one of the best bowlers in the competition and dehli could really struggle against him on this wicket. The lions top order is also were I see the value in this bet. Whether it's Smith and Mccullum opening or Finch and Mccullum. This is a very strong top order, especially with Mccullum finally coming in to form. Short boundaries at this ground also. The lions to score more sixes at evens. 

Edited April 27, 2016 by Wanderer89

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts +10.5 sixes in the Pune vs Mumbai game at 5/6 with William Hill

Given the brutal nature of these two batting sides in recent weeks, this sixes line looks a bit generous. Some of the hitting from Pollard, Buttler, Pandya, Sharma and Smith makes this a very enticing price indeed. The game itself is a tight one, so with neither side looking great with the ball, this looks like the best betting option to me.

[BigMozzyDog]

KKR to win at 4/7 with Skybet

KKR top opening partnership at 3/4 with Betfair

Morkel to bet MOTM at 20/1 with Coral

Kolkata Knight Riders are the much fancied team riding the crest of a wave, while Kings XI punjab have made another disastrous start to the IPL and remain rooted to the bottom of the table. Will Murali Vijay replacing David Miller as captain make any difference to the outcome of this match, and indeed, their entire campaign.

It would take the most optimistic Punjabi to think that it will. As good a player as Vijay is, and as decent a leader he may be, they simply haven’t assembled their side thoughtfully, choosing two star overseas players who can go missing for games at a time.

When a player of the calibre and consistency of Usman Khawaja went unsold at auction, it is a strange call to go with two very similar players in the middle order.

Currently they look like they might trouble a team for five to six overs at a time, so they could win the odd game, after all a five over stint of Glenn Maxwell can be brutal, but this KKR team they face is a serious unit who don’t look likely to be blown away.

KKR are one of the sides to beat in the race to be crowned winners of IPL 9, with tournament MVP, Andre Russell epitomising their athleticism, power and all round ability.

Russell is a player we’ve championed for almost a year in both top player markets, as well as picking him out to be a match winner for both club and country.

At 28, he was recently identified by Clive Lloyd as the man who would be most valuable to the Windies test side, and it’s easy to see why. He bowls it at 90mph, whacks it, and is a great fielder. He’s the personification of modern five-day cricket.

Elsewhere, Yusaf Pathan has been woken from a six season slumber to make a meaningful contribution in the middle order, while their top order has been sublime. Robin Uthappa and Gautam Gambhir have formed the most reliable opening partnership in the IPL, and offer a healthy portion of game management with every swashbuckling partnership.

Gambhir’s leadership has been another stand-out reason for their success. He is game savvy, innovative, and understands how to win games in this tournament.

Bowling wise, they are the complete package. They have pace in Morne Morkel, Russell and Umesh Yadav, and they also have one of the most economical spinners in the business, Sunil Narine.

It’s unthinkable that KKR will lose to Punjab, and the price they offer here is very good value.

You can back Kolkatta to win at 4/7 with SkyBet.

As for the other markets, we’ve already mentioned the sheer quality of the KKR openers, and they look a good bet to make the highest opening partnership. Vijay and Vohra are no mugs, but Uthappa and Gambhir have been the most consistent pairing in the tournament.

You can back KKR to have the highest opening partnership at 3/4 with Betfair.
An interesting outside punt is on the MOTM market, where a small stake on an explosive performer could pay dividends. Morne Morkel is a former top IPL wicket taker, and against this KXIP line-up could do real damage. He is huge at 20/1 with Coral.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/ihVnjp

[Wanderer89]

On ‎27‎/‎04‎/‎2016‎ ‎10‎:‎04‎:‎39, Wanderer89 said:

Today we have Delhi vs Gujarat. I'm not going to touch the match better today but one market I have seen value in is Gujarat to score more sixes at evens with stanjames. I think Gujarat are the better all round team and on a wicket were there hasn't really been any big scores, I still fancy the lions to have control of this one with both bat and ball. In dwayne bravo they have one of the best bowlers in the competition and dehli could really struggle against him on this wicket. The lions top order is also were I see the value in this bet. Whether it's Smith and Mccullum opening or Finch and Mccullum. This is a very strong top order, especially with Mccullum finally coming in to form. Short boundaries at this ground also. The lions to score more sixes at evens. 

Another win

 

Today I've seen a bet with really good value. Paddy Power are offering Kings Punjab to score more sixes at 17/10. One interesting stat in this tournament so far is that Kings Punjab , who currently lie bottom of the league, out of their 7 games played so far they have scored more sixes than their opponents In 5 of those matches. Kings finally found some form in their last match and picked up a crucial win taking 9 wickets for just 131 runs! Today they can lift themselves up the table with a win. Now I'm not expecting Kings to smash KKR off the park, what I am expecting is the 6s line to be very tight. KKR are hot favourites and rightly so after their impressive win against Bangalore in their last match. Although Bangalore's bowling is terrible! The toss could be crucial but with the underdogs not surprisingly causing many upsets throughout the tournament. KKR's odds are too low to take. So today I'm going for the value. Kings to score more 6's at 17/10.

[potus]

The silence on here says it all really, this tournament has turned into a bit of a farce.

 

One thing that all sports need to find is the balance between being boring/predictable with the same teams/players winning all the time and being a lottery where anyone can win and there is no consistency from game to game/week to week. The IPL is currently falling far too far into the latter category. Every game is a complete lottery where you have no idea who is going to win and there is no sort of form or momentum whatsoever.

 

You have far too many players who can be world beaters one game and donkeys the next or vice versa. Players with huge reputations who fail to perform over and over again. T20 cricket and in particular the IPL got it right for so long, but for some reason this tournament has been a step too far. Maybe there have become too many of these super league franchise tournaments around the world, in particular this year, with the World Cup squeezed in the middle. Maybe the IPL with just 8 teams is too small now and needs 10 or 12 teams to make it a decent tournament.

 

I've lost a lot of money today and an even bigger amount of potential winnings, on another lottery of a game, from two of the biggest hit-and-miss teams out there and some of the biggest hit-and-miss players as well. Upsetting, I used to love this tournament as well.

[BigMozzyDog]

So far this term, both of these two sides have struggled to find consistent form, and have needed some of their big name players to perform in order to still be in contention. That said, Pune look to need a win much more than Sunrisers here, with anything less looking likely to mean an end to their campaign.

There has been plenty of bad luck in the RPS season so far, with their two flagship batters no longer fit to play, in KP and Faf du Plessis. That kind of upheaval is no good to any side.  On the flip side of that, Sunrisers have barely changed their side, and their marquee player, David Warner, has already won them five games.

That is why Sunrisers sit second, and Pune lie second bottom. But can those fortunes be reversed in this crucial game.

Like their opponents here, Pune are relying heavily on Aussies for the rest of the competition, with the stunningly good Usman Khawaja at the top of the order, and George Bailey brought in from the IPL cold that saw him unsold at the original auction.

They are strong in terms of domestic talent, with MS Dhoni, Ajinkya Rahane and the so far disappointing Ravi Ashwin. If they can gel as a side in this debut season, they could finish the campaign very strong.

What they seem to lack is a coherent method, instead they chop and change their approach, and a lot of that comes from not knowing where their strengths lie. In their last game they threw away a winning position when setting RCB at 192 target. Granted, Virat Kohli’s ton was incredible, they looked lost in terms of where they wanted to bowl. Maybe this season is just a little early for them, especially with the loss of their power hitter, KP so early.

 

Sunrisers have been the surprise package of the IPL so far. Quite rightly much has been made of the performances of David Warner, who has been in sensational nick, but Mustafizur Rahman deserves a mention.

A skilled death bowler who rarely goes for more than 6 an over, Rahman has added wickets to his game, and is one of the most effective bowlers in the IPL. Alongside Bhuvaneshwar Kumar and Ashish Nehra, they form a formidable three pronged seam attack. And with Shikhar Dhawan back in form, they could be well set for a tilt at the title.

You can back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11 with Skybet.

Another interesting market is the top batter market, where we recently pulled out a 100/1 shot in the form of Shakib al Hasan. In this game, Yuvraj Singh looks to present some real value. A former top priced player at this competition, Singh is a big hitter who seemed to be finding some touch last time with a sneaky 39. Batting at four, he could have a big role to play if Warner fails, so on that basis he looks like real value.

You can back Yuvraj to be top batter at 16/1 with Skybet.

The selections:

4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11

1pt Yuvraj to be top batter at 16/1

[potus]

51 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:

So far this term, both of these two sides have struggled to find consistent form, and have needed some of their big name players to perform in order to still be in contention. That said, Pune look to need a win much more than Sunrisers here, with anything less looking likely to mean an end to their campaign.

There has been plenty of bad luck in the RPS season so far, with their two flagship batters no longer fit to play, in KP and Faf du Plessis. That kind of upheaval is no good to any side.  On the flip side of that, Sunrisers have barely changed their side, and their marquee player, David Warner, has already won them five games.

That is why Sunrisers sit second, and Pune lie second bottom. But can those fortunes be reversed in this crucial game.

Like their opponents here, Pune are relying heavily on Aussies for the rest of the competition, with the stunningly good Usman Khawaja at the top of the order, and George Bailey brought in from the IPL cold that saw him unsold at the original auction.

They are strong in terms of domestic talent, with MS Dhoni, Ajinkya Rahane and the so far disappointing Ravi Ashwin. If they can gel as a side in this debut season, they could finish the campaign very strong.

What they seem to lack is a coherent method, instead they chop and change their approach, and a lot of that comes from not knowing where their strengths lie. In their last game they threw away a winning position when setting RCB at 192 target. Granted, Virat Kohli’s ton was incredible, they looked lost in terms of where they wanted to bowl. Maybe this season is just a little early for them, especially with the loss of their power hitter, KP so early.

 

Sunrisers have been the surprise package of the IPL so far. Quite rightly much has been made of the performances of David Warner, who has been in sensational nick, but Mustafizur Rahman deserves a mention.

A skilled death bowler who rarely goes for more than 6 an over, Rahman has added wickets to his game, and is one of the most effective bowlers in the IPL. Alongside Bhuvaneshwar Kumar and Ashish Nehra, they form a formidable three pronged seam attack. And with Shikhar Dhawan back in form, they could be well set for a tilt at the title.

You can back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11 with Skybet.

Another interesting market is the top batter market, where we recently pulled out a 100/1 shot in the form of Shakib al Hasan. In this game, Yuvraj Singh looks to present some real value. A former top priced player at this competition, Singh is a big hitter who seemed to be finding some touch last time with a sneaky 39. Batting at four, he could have a big role to play if Warner fails, so on that basis he looks like real value.

You can back Yuvraj to be top batter at 16/1 with Skybet.

The selections:

4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11

1pt Yuvraj to be top batter at 16/1

I asked before and you didn't answer, so I'll ask again....

The match betting markets in this tournament so far have been an absolute lottery and if anything games are more regularly being won by the opposite team to the one that any thought or logical processes would arrive at. Everyone else appears to have given up on match betting long ago, so what on earth are you seeing that makes you think that backing 8/11 favourites is in any way profitable? This has been a total lottery, I appreciate if you want to share your knowledge but knowing 'when to fold them' and say 'no bet' would also be an acceptable way to show your knowledge. 

 

I just can't see that Sunrisers at 10/11 would be any sort of value, let alone 8/11. I'm confused. As the saying goes 'insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.'

[Wanderer89]

What a performance by Zampa. 6-18! Brilliant.. He's probably just won them this match. 

[potus]

20 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:

The selections:

4pts Sunrisers Hyderabad at 8/11

You're not having that and you're certainly not having that as an 8/11 shot.

Can you please engage in the discussion regarding this tournament, because we're all here to try and make profit and I think I'm making an important point. I may be wrong but if so can you at least tell me where I'm going wrong. Thanks. 

[BigMozzyDog]

4 hours ago, potus said:

You're not having that and you're certainly not having that as an 8/11 shot.

Can you please engage in the discussion regarding this tournament, because we're all here to try and make profit and I think I'm making an important point. I may be wrong but if so can you at least tell me where I'm going wrong. Thanks. 

Sunrisers looked clear winners to me, simply based on what I said in the preview. I think their bowling is underestimated, especially Rahman, and that they are far more likely to pull out a result than Pune who have been badly disrupted. I won well at halfway in-play too, with 130-odd looking enough.

I think the key in looking at the win/lose markets is to forget the names and look at how the balance of the side shapes up. Sides who are stacked with batters or bowlers struggle for consistency. Yes it's T20, but structure is really important.

I've been having a lot of success on top opening partnership bets too, especially when following KKR and GL, who's top order are very settled and secure.

So far the outrights have done ok, although it has been more up and down than normal, which is why I've occasionally dipped in to the sixes lines and opening partnership stuff. I always do ok on the players, but for the bigger bets on shorter prices, I just find outright more reliable. 

My yield since 1st April has been well over 60% on all cricket previews, and the bread and butter of that has been picking a winner.

 

[potus]

47 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:

Sunrisers looked clear winners to me, simply based on what I said in the preview. I think their bowling is underestimated, especially Rahman, and that they are far more likely to pull out a result than Pune who have been badly disrupted. I won well at halfway in-play too, with 130-odd looking enough.

I think the key in looking at the win/lose markets is to forget the names and look at how the balance of the side shapes up. Sides who are stacked with batters or bowlers struggle for consistency. Yes it's T20, but structure is really important.

I've been having a lot of success on top opening partnership bets too, especially when following KKR and GL, who's top order are very settled and secure.

So far the outrights have done ok, although it has been more up and down than normal, which is why I've occasionally dipped in to the sixes lines and opening partnership stuff. I always do ok on the players, but for the bigger bets on shorter prices, I just find outright more reliable. 

My yield since 1st April has been well over 60% on all cricket previews, and the bread and butter of that has been picking a winner.

 

Ok, when you give your yield since 1st April, I may be wrong but that looks suspiciously like selective statistics to me. Could you give us your yield on IPL match winner bets for this season please because I can't believe that you or anybody else could have made a profit this season on that particular market. The last two days were yet more lottery fodder, with chases coming down to the last ball and there being no indication whatsoever even after 239 balls out of a 240 ball match as to whether the run chase would be successful or not and which way the match would go. 

 

The thing is, it's such a short tournament, with only 8 teams that you have to be able to react quickly to any trends and adjust your betting accordingly, there simply isn't time to rest on your laurels and be too stubborn to change your betting patterns. An obvious trend here is the unpredictability of the match markets - further highlighted by teams at the bottom of the table with positive run rates and teams at the top with negative run rates - so we have to react quickly by making an adjustment to our betting. I don't see any adjustment from you, you're still trying to pick logical match winners which isn't relevant at all against a lottery market. 

[BigMozzyDog]

19 hours ago, potus said:

Ok, when you give your yield since 1st April, I may be wrong but that looks suspiciously like selective statistics to me. Could you give us your yield on IPL match winner bets for this season please because I can't believe that you or anybody else could have made a profit this season on that particular market. The last two days were yet more lottery fodder, with chases coming down to the last ball and there being no indication whatsoever even after 239 balls out of a 240 ball match as to whether the run chase would be successful or not and which way the match would go. 

 

The thing is, it's such a short tournament, with only 8 teams that you have to be able to react quickly to any trends and adjust your betting accordingly, there simply isn't time to rest on your laurels and be too stubborn to change your betting patterns. An obvious trend here is the unpredictability of the match markets - further highlighted by teams at the bottom of the table with positive run rates and teams at the top with negative run rates - so we have to react quickly by making an adjustment to our betting. I don't see any adjustment from you, you're still trying to pick logical match winners which isn't relevant at all against a lottery market. 

Ok, of the four main bet types I've employed so far, my stats are as follows:

Win/lose market: +1.60 pts

Top batter/bowler market: +99.92 pts

Sixes lines: -1.40 pts

Opening partnerships: +5pts

Nb, my top player winnings are skewed due to a couple of large wins.

So, I except your point about the nature of this year's IPL, especially on the basis on the net run rates you mention. That said, even if I'm only making a small profit in a competition where it has been a little unpredictable, I'm happy to continue picking what I see to be the best value. We clearly disagree on strategy, which is cool, but I'd be intrigued to know how you go about betting on limited overs cricket in general.

As you can see above, I have tipped in other markets with some success, but only when they have made cricketing sense.