IPL 2016

[BigMozzyDog]

Rising Pune Supergiants to win IPL 2016 at 6/1 with Betway

This year is one of change for the Indian Premier League, with two franchises no more due to match fixing irregularities, and two new ones in their place. One constant will be the quality of cricket on show from the world’s best players.

Last year’s winners, the Mumbai Indians will be keen to become the second side to manage back to back titles, but they look much weaker than a few other sides, having bought poorly in the auction stage. Here we look at the main contenders, as well as some of the outstanding outright player bets.

Kolkata Knight Riders

KKR have won this competition twice in the last five seasons, and remain big contenders here. They started the IPL as a side that were whipping boys, with only Brendon McCullum to pull them along. But now they are a team full of unlikely heroes, who wouldn’t have been rated a few years ago. Players like Andre Russell, last year’s MVP and now a World Cup winner.

Another West Indian, Sunil Narine has now been given the all clear to bowl, which is a big plus. When they won the tournament two years ago, his 24 wickets were a huge factor.

They have great domestic talent too, in skipper Gautam Gambir and Piyush Chawla. The latter will form part of a predominantly spin attack which, remarkably contains Brad Hogg, who could be considered mid-forties.

This is a side with firepower in the form of Chris Lynn, Colin Munro and Yusuf Pathan. It’s a side with guile in the form of Gambir and Uthappa, and with pace threat on top of the spinners (see Morne Morkel). They will be there or there abouts.

A value bet looks to be Chris Lynn to be top tournament batter at 66/1 with Paddy Power.

Rising Pune Supergiants

A new franchise as a result of the previous year’s goings on, Pune have assembled a very useful squad. One that has everything to challenge. They have the leadership of the one and only MS Dhoni for a start. A two time winner of this competition and a man who has guided his country to the World Cup.

Aside from a whole heap of quality domestic players, including Ashwin, Rahane and Ishant, thay have sublime overseas. Yes there is Proteas skipper, Faf du Plessis, Peter Hanscome and Adam Zampa. But there is also Kevin Pietersen. KP. The forgotten man in England, but revered man everywhere else. If his form in the IPL is anything to go by, he could go big here.

One thing KP offers is an ability to win a match. He’s that guy who has the balls to finish things, or manage a chase, or even just give it a whack in counter-attack. He may be the best player in the competition.

You can back KP to be top batsman at 22/1 with Boylesports.

Royal Challengers Bangalore

Despite having never won the IPL, this is an exciting side. Coached by Kiwi legend, Daniel Vettori, RCB have a batting order that would terrify even the humble passer-by. Gayle, Kohli, De Villiers, Watson. Ok, maybe not Shane, but the rest are probably the best three T20 players in the world. Do we really need to say more about their chances?

Well, yes. They have bowlers too, and one who stands out is the number one in the world, Samuel Badree, whose leggies guided the Windies through many a power play in the recent World Cup. He is a huge price to do well here.

You can bet on Samuel Badree to be top tournament bowler at 20/1 with Betway.

The verdict:

These are the three teams most likely to challenge for the title, but it is MS Dhoni who is the man who will lift it. The man is a great captain in this format, and he has the players to act out his plans, whether it’s Steve Smith and KP with the bat, or Ravi Ashwin and Ishant Sharma with the ball. Pune are a big price to win this.

[TheBeast]

I have actually challenged my friend that Pune will win it all..... But i think iI'll just wait for placing an outright bet..... Prices will fluctuate a lot and if Pune doesn't top the table we will probably get a higher price come playoffs.... 

[neilovan]

Kolkata v Delhi

Looking at the line ups Dehli just look so thin in batting. Bowling they look fantastic.

Each team can play a max of 4 overseas players. They could play 3 quality spinners (Narine, Chawla, Hogg)

Kolkata can choose

Narine, Morne Morkel, Shakib Al Hasan, Chris Lynn, Jason Holder, Andre Russel  seem to have a better balance.

 

While Dehli

Chris Morris, Coulter-Nile, Braithwaite, Quinnty de Kock. Imran Tahir  just don't have any batting

 

I just don't see how Delhi are gonna get big totals on the board. They seem to be skewed towards bowlers.

Regarding Dehli:  I'm not a big JP DUminy fan.

I have never seen him grab a game and win it when it counts. I hope he does'nt play.

He is a tickler and jabber and seems to waste balls in the middle overs (8-16 overs).

Maybe those players are rare, but that is why they get the big bucks.

 

Interested to see why Dehli paid 1 267 million for Pawan Negi, and if they paid 1.2 bar for Morris he has to play,

and play a bigger role.

 

For me the 1.63 for the KKR win looks more than decent.

 

Don't know what's the matter with me today. Definitely going for the KKR win, but I wrote the post like I

had been dropped on my head. 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2016 by neilovan

[BigMozzyDog]

5pts Gujarat Lions to beat Kings XI at Evens

This is very much the old taking on the new, with IPL founder members, Kings XI Punjab, taking on the Gujarat Lions in a bid to banish last season’s disappointment into distant memory.

These are two sides that have quality to draw on, like every side in the IPL, but it will be a case of finding a balance that complements both disciplines; batting and bowling. That is how the West Indies won the T20 World CUp, and that is how teams win games in this competition.

Kings XI are very much a side in transition, making no major signings, and instead opting to change captain and make a few strategic appointments. Big hitting Protea, David Miller will lead a side that has largely under-performed for some time. But, having added Marcus Stoinis and Farhaan Behardien to their side, they have oped for variety, and potential finishers rather than out and out power. Mohit Sharma is another signing who will go under the radar. Since making the India side in ODI cricket, he has performed well and is a player of considerable pedigree.

All that side, they are coming up against a side that has been able to start from scratch with recruitment, without being tied to existing contracts. It is something that Pune with capitalise on, as will Gujarat Lions.

The newcomers look strong with a capital B. That’s B for Brendon McCullum and B for Bravo (Dwayne).

The Lions have the kind of strength that comes from having too many good players to pick from, but in Bravo and McCullum, they have two experienced performers who are available throughout the IPL.

McCullum set the IPL alight in the very first game with a blistering 158 not out. Since then he has travelled the world entertaining crowds, both for his country, and for franchises. The same can be said of Bravo, who should still be playing Test and ODI cricket, but for the WICB’s ‘interesting’ selection policies.

Bravo was last year’s top wicket taker with 28, and he was very close to repeating the feat in the World Cup. He adds the all round ability of being an excellent batter and one of the World’s best fielders. This is a man who would get in any side.

The rest of the Lion’s team isn’t too shabby either. Starting with all-time IPL leading runscorer Suresh Raina, who is skipper, and generally saves his best for this. Ravi Jadeja, once the most expensive man at the IPL auction, James Faulkner and Aaron Finch. Dale Steyn could also make a real impact after returning to full fitness.

It’s hard to see how King’s XI can cope. You can back Gujarat Lions to win at Evens with Coral. That’s huge.

As for the player markets, we’re looking at the top bowlers, with both batting line-ups so competitive.

For Gujarat, they have two of the best slower ball bowlers in the world, in Bravo and Faulkner. Both can be expected to bowl at the death, and will consequently pick up plenty of freebie wickets as the tournament progresses.
The preference is just about for Bravo, given is consistency, and record in this tournament. He’s a big price too.

Full Preview: http://punts.pl/YzE4NTMw

[neilovan]

19 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:

5pts Gujarat Lions to beat Kings XI at Evens

This is very much the old taking on the new, with IPL founder members, Kings XI Punjab, taking on the Gujarat Lions in a bid to banish last season’s disappointment into distant memory.

These are two sides that have quality to draw on, like every side in the IPL, but it will be a case of finding a balance that complements both disciplines; batting and bowling. That is how the West Indies won the T20 World CUp, and that is how teams win games in this competition.

Kings XI are very much a side in transition, making no major signings, and instead opting to change captain and make a few strategic appointments. Big hitting Protea, David Miller will lead a side that has largely under-performed for some time. But, having added Marcus Stoinis and Farhaan Behardien to their side, they have oped for variety, and potential finishers rather than out and out power. Mohit Sharma is another signing who will go under the radar. Since making the India side in ODI cricket, he has performed well and is a player of considerable pedigree.

All that side, they are coming up against a side that has been able to start from scratch with recruitment, without being tied to existing contracts. It is something that Pune with capitalise on, as will Gujarat Lions.

The newcomers look strong with a capital B. That’s B for Brendon McCullum and B for Bravo (Dwayne).

The Lions have the kind of strength that comes from having too many good players to pick from, but in Bravo and McCullum, they have two experienced performers who are available throughout the IPL.

McCullum set the IPL alight in the very first game with a blistering 158 not out. Since then he has travelled the world entertaining crowds, both for his country, and for franchises. The same can be said of Bravo, who should still be playing Test and ODI cricket, but for the WICB’s ‘interesting’ selection policies.

Bravo was last year’s top wicket taker with 28, and he was very close to repeating the feat in the World Cup. He adds the all round ability of being an excellent batter and one of the World’s best fielders. This is a man who would get in any side.

The rest of the Lion’s team isn’t too shabby either. Starting with all-time IPL leading runscorer Suresh Raina, who is skipper, and generally saves his best for this. Ravi Jadeja, once the most expensive man at the IPL auction, James Faulkner and Aaron Finch. Dale Steyn could also make a real impact after returning to full fitness.

It’s hard to see how King’s XI can cope. You can back Gujarat Lions to win at Evens with Coral. That’s huge.

As for the player markets, we’re looking at the top bowlers, with both batting line-ups so competitive.

For Gujarat, they have two of the best slower ball bowlers in the world, in Bravo and Faulkner. Both can be expected to bowl at the death, and will consequently pick up plenty of freebie wickets as the tournament progresses.
The preference is just about for Bravo, given is consistency, and record in this tournament. He’s a big price too.

Full Preview: http://punts.pl/YzE4NTMw

This game kind of scares me. Both teams are filled with match winners. Anyone gets going here, and the game can be over very fast.

For me one of the biggest things the Proteas have done wrong in the 1 last 16 months is not give Miller more responsibility.

It is ridiculous to bat a guy like this two far down. Let him be in in the 14th over, instead of the 17th.

You write about the big B , but there is also the bigger M.  Miller, Maxwell, Mitchell (Marsh),  Mandesh (Panday) and Mohit (Sharma).

I think that Mitchell Johnson could be absolutely devastating in the short form of the game. 

For years the absolute spearhead of the Aussie attack. 

 

For me Bangelore, Kings XI, Gujarat Lions and Pune are the teams to beat, and this will be very close.

 

 

[BigMozzyDog]

Royal Challengers Bangalore to win at 8/15 with Skybet

So far, the two games that have taken place in IPL 2016 have gone to the side with the most bowling quality. We’re not sure it will come down to that this time, given the batting that’s on show here.

RCB are another of the IPL founder members, but despite reaching four finals, they have never won the competition. They’ll be looking to make amends this year. And their line-up looks strong enough to do so.

Coached by Kiwi legend, Daniel Vettori, RCB have a batting order that would terrify even the humble passer-by. Gayle, Kohli, De Villiers, Watson. Ok, maybe not Shane, but the rest are probably the best three T20 players in the world.

They have bowlers too, and one who stands out is the number one in the world, Samuel Badree, whose leggies guided the Windies through many a power play in the recent World Cup. He could return from injury here, while there is also the little matter of Mitchell Starc if he too gets passed fit.

Granted, the Sunrisers are no mugs, but they will need to play out of their skins here. They have David Warner, Yuvraj Singh and Shikhar Dhawan in the batting order, but this Chinnaswamy Stadium pitch in Bangalore is noted for producing high scores, which will only favour the home side. They simply have too much firepower.

Royal Challengers Bangalore are 8/15 to win with Skybet.

As for the player markets, we’re looking to the top batsman field for real value. For RCB we are seemingly spoilt for choice, but there is one man with a penchant for starting tournaments well That man is Chris Gayle.

Gayle has hit a hundred in his first game of a T20 World Cup, twice. That’s incredible. He’s also known for starting strongly in the IPL.

The Gayle Storm is right on the crest of a wave after the World Cup, and will go into this knowing he is capable of something special. Few other players possess that confidence. Still, he will love the look of this Sunrisers attack, which has a few bowlers with “hit me” pinned to their back. Reddy and Rahman in particular.
A two time top batter in this competition in the past, this big guy could run away with this market and make the price look very silly.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/ynQ8B9

[potus]

Surprisingly good odds on Kolkata today - 8/11 at Bet365 - and if you take them with a slight handicap of 1.5 wickets/2.5 runs you can even get 10/11. They nearly always win at home and Mumbai Indians nearly always start the season badly and don't look that great a team anyway.

 

Obviously anything can happen in a T20 match but the chances of Kolkata winning here are high enough to make the 10/11 a very profitable bet in the long run.

[BigMozzyDog]

4ts Pune to beat Gujarat at 10/11 with Skybet

 

It’s been an interesting start to the IPL 2016, with every game won with a degree of comfort, including Mumbai’s chase against KKR. These are two newly former sides who we correctly tipped for victory in the first round of games. But which will make it two in two here?

 

Rising Pune Supergiants are our outright tip, and they made us look pretty good in the first game, where they easily overcame the reigning champions, Mumbai Indians. They have assembled a very useful squad. One that has everything to challenge. They have the leadership of the one and only MS Dhoni for a start. A two time winner of this competition and a man who has guided his country to the T20 World Cup.

 

Aside from a whole heap of quality domestic players, including Ashwin, Rahane and Ishant, they have sublime overseas.

 

In the first game, it was Rahane who stole the show with a match-winning 80-odd, but Faf and KP got in on the act and spent some vital time at the crease.

 

Bowling wise they looked strong too. Ageing all rounder Rajat Bhatia showed the skill we knew he had, and that should have earned him international honours by now, while Sharma and Singh bowled with guile and pace up top. Both Ashwins provided good spin and the attack looked balanced. The only question mark is over depth if someone gets after Mitchell Marsh as fifth bowler.

 

Gujarat Lions enjoyed an equally impressive opener. They were a huge price when we tipped them to win at home at even money, but the way they cantered in was very impressive.

 

We highlighted the strength of their two Bs, that’s Dwayne Bravo an Brendon McCullum, and the former certainly came to the fore with a four wicket haul to put the game beyond the Kings’s XI in Gujarat.

 

Elsewhere, the ever underrated Dinesh Karthik contributed another valuable score, but it was the outright hitting of Aaron Finch which proved the game changer. They have lots of ability throughout, and will finish in a play-off spot, but one thing in question is their batting match-winners. I’m not convinced Raina has recovered from poor national team form, and Ravi Jadeja isn’t a top six batter, for all the will in the world. They very much need a big performance from McCullum and Finch at the top.

Due to the strong performance of the opening bowlers of Pune in the first game, I'm going for them to have enough left in the locker to score more than Gujarat. It’ll be close, but they have the quality.

Full Preview: http://punts.pl/KBYwlf 

[potus]

Today looks far too close to call, although in general I would tend to bet against Brendon McCullum who is a bit of a liability at the top of the order.

 

The best bet looks to be 12 or more sixes which is a line that has surely been set far too low. 

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Delhi to beat Punjab at 11/10 with Ladbrokes.

These two sides have both taken pretty bad beatings in the first round of games, and will be left counting the cost of some pretty poor business at the auction, but is one stronger than the other here?

Skippered by former India stalwart, Zaheer Khan, Delhi have spent a lot of money this year, without improving appreciably on last year’s side. They got million dollar men; Chris Morris and Pawan Negi. Morris is a funny one, because although he is capable of special spells, he can go miles with the ball. As England know very well, he’s destructive with the bat, but is used very low at 8. Surely there were better options.

Negi is a player who could really blossom. However, his fledgling career does little to justify a record purchase price. He still lacks the consistency required, and often gets sucked in to bowling the ball too fast when players are hitting out.

Delhi’s strength is very much in the bowling department, whereas Punjab boast stronger batting, making this an intriguing one. The slower, turning pitch that will almost certainly be prepared, will bring the home team’s tweaker into the game. Imran Tahir looks set to play, which is a huge boost. The veteran leg spinner is one of the most dangerous bowlers in World T20 cricket, and will surely cause big trouble for the the Kings XI dangermen.

Alongside Tahir will be fellow spinners; Negi and Amit Mishra. The latter is a player with a superb record in the competition.

If they can put the squeeze on Punjab, seamers like Windies hero, Carlos Brathwaite could come to the fore later on.

These sides have finished bottom of the table have been bottom of the table in 5 of the last 6 years, and have got worse records than nearly every franchise. This may be a low quality affair.

For the visitors, they have dangermen in the middle order.

Much relies on the talent of Murali Vijay opening up and the superstar combo of David Miller and Glenn Maxwell, for Punjab to succeed. The problem with their big name players is that both are capable of terrible runs of form. They simply aren’t consistent enough. When a KP contributes regular 30-50 scores, these guys are boom or bust.

With Shaun Marsh making a comeback from illness, they will be slightly stronger, but that means the talented Marcus Stoinis may well miss out.

If this is a low scorer, I think that the side with the most control with the ball may come out on top, particularly if the deck is slow. Granted Delhi have a woeful record at this ground, but I still think they will cause enough problems to turn over a very poor Punjab,

Full preview: http://punts.pl/bvbw1k

[potus]

The line for sixes is set at 9.5 for the next two matches. Again, that seems an incredibly low number for IPL matches. Has something changed that I'm missing because these seem too good to be true.

[Twinky99]

any picks for tonight guys?

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Rising Pune Supergiants to win at 8/11 with Coral

So far in this edition of the IPL, the change of captaincy to David Miller from George Bailey has nothing to improve the fortunes of one of the competition’s worst sides. In short, Kings XI Punjab have been dreadful.

Scores of 111 and 98 have seen Punjab easily defeated in the two opening games, and if they are to stop the rot here, they will need runs from their overseas stars, Miller and Maxwell. At the top of the order Murali Vijay is an experienced performer, while Manan Vohra has shown ability, but their big names have failed badly.

Both Maxwell and Miller are known to be hit and miss, with both capable of special things every so often. They are good players, but you need great performances to do well in a competition that’s this competitive.

Shaun Marsh made his comeback last time to further boost the Punjab middle-order, but made no runs. They need more from these players, and even then, look light on proven match-winning ability.

As for Pune, they have been nearly perfect for 32 overs with the bat. They won the first game at a canter, and at 100/1 in the 12th with KP and Faf at the crease in the second against the Lions, looked to be well in charge.

After their catastrophic finish against Gujarat, they will be keen to put those wrongs right. They have the players, and have the coaching set-up to do really well in this competition.

They have assembled a very useful squad. One that has everything to challenge. They have the leadership of the one and only MS Dhoni for a start. A two time winner of this competition and a man who has guided his country to the T20 World Cup.

Aside from a whole heap of quality domestic players, including Ashwin, Rahane and Ishant, they have sublime overseas. Yes there is Proteas skipper, Faf du Plessis who has had the Orange Helmet for while, and Kevin Pietersen.

Ajinkya Rahane has been great at the top of the order, while Steve Smith is yet to make a mark, but has undoubted quality. MS DHoni at five and Mitchell Marsh at six makes this one of the most dangerous line-ups in the IPL.

They have been strong with the ball too, with the Ashwin’s in good nick, and Ishant Sharma looking a real threat. They should have more than enough here.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/OHjtA4

[potus]

5 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:

4pts Rising Pune Supergiants to win at 8/11 with Coral

So far in this edition of the IPL, the change of captaincy to David Miller from George Bailey has nothing to improve the fortunes of one of the competition’s worst sides. In short, Kings XI Punjab have been dreadful.

Scores of 111 and 98 have seen Punjab easily defeated in the two opening games, and if they are to stop the rot here, they will need runs from their overseas stars, Miller and Maxwell. At the top of the order Murali Vijay is an experienced performer, while Manan Vohra has shown ability, but their big names have failed badly.

Both Maxwell and Miller are known to be hit and miss, with both capable of special things every so often. They are good players, but you need great performances to do well in a competition that’s this competitive.

Shaun Marsh made his comeback last time to further boost the Punjab middle-order, but made no runs. They need more from these players, and even then, look light on proven match-winning ability.

As for Pune, they have been nearly perfect for 32 overs with the bat. They won the first game at a canter, and at 100/1 in the 12th with KP and Faf at the crease in the second against the Lions, looked to be well in charge.

After their catastrophic finish against Gujarat, they will be keen to put those wrongs right. They have the players, and have the coaching set-up to do really well in this competition.

They have assembled a very useful squad. One that has everything to challenge. They have the leadership of the one and only MS Dhoni for a start. A two time winner of this competition and a man who has guided his country to the T20 World Cup.

Aside from a whole heap of quality domestic players, including Ashwin, Rahane and Ishant, they have sublime overseas. Yes there is Proteas skipper, Faf du Plessis who has had the Orange Helmet for while, and Kevin Pietersen.

Ajinkya Rahane has been great at the top of the order, while Steve Smith is yet to make a mark, but has undoubted quality. MS DHoni at five and Mitchell Marsh at six makes this one of the most dangerous line-ups in the IPL.

They have been strong with the ball too, with the Ashwin’s in good nick, and Ishant Sharma looking a real threat. They should have more than enough here.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/OHjtA4

Do you compare the odds across lots of different sites? I have found a far better price for this match but I'm a bit scared to draw attention to it in case it is a mistake and they void my bet. Any thoughts with regards to sharing it here? I'm a bit disappointed you missed it in the first place to be honest. 

[BigMozzyDog]

10 hours ago, potus said:

Do you compare the odds across lots of different sites? I have found a far better price for this match but I'm a bit scared to draw attention to it in case it is a mistake and they void my bet. Any thoughts with regards to sharing it here? I'm a bit disappointed you missed it in the first place to be honest. 

Yes, I certainly do. At the time of the preview, these were the best odds, as ever. If you have a far better price than this, I'm sure it is either your error or the bookies'. You're welcome to share it, but there must be the caveat that the price is abnormally large and may result in a voided bet.

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts Royal Challengers Bangalore to beat Delhi Daredevils at 4/9 with Paddy Power

A lot of sides in this edition of the IPL have openers who can be destructive, some even have a number three who can control a game. Not many have the best player from three of the most dominant nations in the world. If Gayle, Kohli and De Villiers fire, any score is possible for RCB.

In the first game they plundered 227 against Hyderabad, winning the game in the first half. This time they face a Delhi Daredevils side whose bowling has been strong. Last time out they reduced Kings XI Punjab to just 111 for 9 in their 20.

This could become an intriguing contest given the Challengers’ weakness in the bowling department. But saying that, any bowling side would look weak compared to their stellar batting. In Binny and Watson they have two canny performers, and either Kan Richardson or Adam Milne could make up a solid seam trio.

Since the start of the IPL, the Daredevils have struggled to beat RCB. In fact the Royal Challengers have won 10 of their last 11 meetings, with Delhi only successful four times in 15 since IPL1. That is form that makes grim reading, if you’re a Delhi follower.

One thing that Delhi offer is strong bowling, combined with the strong form of Quinton de Kock at the top of the batting order.

Ex-India legend, Zaheer Khan leads the side by example, bowling exceptionally with the new ball. At 37 he is still hard to get away, and even chucks in the odd maidan along the way. Zaheer is a former RCB player, and he will be keen to get one over on current test skipper, Virat Kohli.

Also bowing, they have Amit Mishra, a former top wicket taker in the IPL, who pouched a four-for against Punjab. The little leggie is devilish when at his best. The obscenely expensive Pawan Negi is decent, while they have Chris Morris and Carlos Brathwaite to add some muscle. It’s a strong attack.

Despite the threat offered by Delhi, they are coming up against a completely different proposition in RCB, compared to that offered by Kings XI Punjab. All that firepower will take some stopping, and Delhi don’t have quite enough to do it.

View the full preview: http://punts.pl/b5mpWC

[potus]

2 hours ago, BigMozzyDog said:

Yes, I certainly do. At the time of the preview, these were the best odds, as ever. If you have a far better price than this, I'm sure it is either your error or the bookies'. You're welcome to share it, but there must be the caveat that the price is abnormally large and may result in a voided bet.

Bet365 had Pune at +6.5 runs/2.5 wickets at 4/5 on the handicaps but they emailed me later to say it was an error. I'd have hoped you might have spotted this price.

 

Horrible batting display from Pune and their total looks well short. Likely to cost me and many other people a lot of money.

[BigMozzyDog]

9 hours ago, potus said:

Bet365 had Pune at +6.5 runs/2.5 wickets at 4/5 on the handicaps but they emailed me later to say it was an error. I'd have hoped you might have spotted this price.

 

Horrible batting display from Pune and their total looks well short. Likely to cost me and many other people a lot of money.

Why would you want me to spot an incorrect price? The price I quoted was correct. yours was incorrect and was likely only available momentarily. I don't understand.

[potus]

A bad day betting-wise for most of us I reckon, thanks to sub-standard batting displays from the favourites.

 

Chris Gayle, I just don't know what to make of you. One game out of ten you can win on your own but does that make up for the other nine games out of ten? I'm not sure it does. 

How do teams decide where to play these players in their batting line-up? What makes Gayle an opener and MS Dhoni bat at five or six for example? They look similar players to me and I'm beginning to think Gayle would be better suited further down. The powerplay is more about scoring fours and rotating strike which Gayle doesn't do very well. The same with Gayle/Kohli/De Villiers/Watson, what dictates the order there? 

[BigMozzyDog]

Chris Gayle is a match-winner, who takes time to get going. He has had a lean four knocks, that's all. Batting lower down requires an instant hitter, which Gayle has never been. He belongs where he is because he can set himself. With a player like that you take the odd poor spell. He's been top batter in this tournament more than once, so something must be going ok. I think I went into this when I tipped the Windies to win the T20 World Cup. He needed an over to get going before his 30-ball ton in the IPL a couple of years ago.

Dhoni couldn't be more different. He's the best finisher there is. These days he is less about hitting maximums and more about managing a chase or a total. He is excellent between the wickets and tends to try and rotate the strike.

Watson doesn't open because he is so prone to being out LBW. The ball swings more when it's new. His record up top is ok, but he's much more of an old ball bully these days. As for ABDV and Kohli, that probably comes down to personal preference. ABDV has been reluctant to open for South Africa before.

[potus]

3 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:

Why would you want me to spot an incorrect price? The price I quoted was correct. yours was incorrect and was likely only available momentarily. I don't understand.

Why would it only be available momentarily? 

I was about to bet on Pune to win the match at 4/6 and then I noticed that +6.5 runs/2.5 wickets they were 4/5. That's obviously a much better deal, so I went for that and I wondered why you didn't spot it. I know the obvious response is 'that price has to be an error because how can they be longer odds to win with the handicap' BUT all week the same thing has been happening on Bet365. It's like the match odds fluctuate about a bit - and most T20 matches are close to 50/50 anyway in terms of odds - but the handicap odds don't change so sometimes you get incosistencies in the odds and situations like I've described which don't make sense and you're getting a better deal betting on the handicaps.

 

It's one of those frustrating situations where the rules are stacked completely unfairly in favour of the bookies. If we make a mistake in out betting, we have no get-out clause yet bookies can just void bets when they make a mistake and go 'oh, we didn't mean that.' It's totally counter-intuitive as well to spend your life looking for bets which offer value but then be expected to go 'oh that one is TOO much value, so that must be a mistake.' I have no idea where to draw the line between value and 'too good to be true' and the fact bookies can void bets or even worse change the odds of bets which fall into the latter category makes things doubly difficult as I tend to lump on a good price when I see one. 

[BigMozzyDog]

Potus, I have a dislike of the handicap markets in the T20 format - games get tight and I prefer to avoid them. As I said, the best price available in the outright market was the one that was quoted, because that's what my tip was based on. Talking about a different market is erroneous, at best.

[potus]

43 minutes ago, BigMozzyDog said:

Potus, I have a dislike of the handicap markets in the T20 format - games get tight and I prefer to avoid them. As I said, the best price available in the outright market was the one that was quoted, because that's what my tip was based on. Talking about a different market is erroneous, at best.

It isn't erroneous though because 4/5 with a handicap obviously beats 8/11 for the outright win. (Better price AND more chance of winning.) Read my previous post, I'm not debating handicap versus outright win, I'm pointing out that sometimes there is inconsistent extra value in the handicap markets which we need to look out for.

[Wanderer89]

In this 20 over format the games are so tight that I tend to stay away from the outright match betting. Like yesterday Bangalore were such poor odds so I looked to the 6s market. Coral had a market Bangalore to score over 6.5 sixes at 4/6. Low odds , yes, but they have such big hitters in their team I thought they could smash this even Gayle alone could manage it. Gayle didn't even score a run and it still crossed the line.

Today skybet are offering 10/11 for under 11.5 sixes. Both of these teams have struggled so far in this tournament. The sunrisers last home match didn't cover the line as they struggled to to get to a poor 142. Yes, in the first match they were chasing a huge total of 227 against Bangalore so had no choice but to go for big hits. Mumbai have yet to cover this line so far this tournament and although the sunrisers have big hitter Morgan I just can't see this having more than 11 sixes, I think it will edgey as both teams could really do with a win.

[potus]

5 hours ago, Wanderer89 said:

In this 20 over format the games are so tight that I tend to stay away from the outright match betting. Like yesterday Bangalore were such poor odds so I looked to the 6s market. Coral had a market Bangalore to score over 6.5 sixes at 4/6. Low odds , yes, but they have such big hitters in their team I thought they could smash this even Gayle alone could manage it. Gayle didn't even score a run and it still crossed the line.

Today skybet are offering 10/11 for under 11.5 sixes. Both of these teams have struggled so far in this tournament. The sunrisers last home match didn't cover the line as they struggled to to get to a poor 142. Yes, in the first match they were chasing a huge total of 227 against Bangalore so had no choice but to go for big hits. Mumbai have yet to cover this line so far this tournament and although the sunrisers have big hitter Morgan I just can't see this having more than 11 sixes, I think it will edgey as both teams could really do with a win.

Top tip I think until someone manages to concede four sixes in an over. How is that possible? Even the good tips aren't winning at the moment, might be time to leave this tournament be for a bit.

[potus]

9 hours ago, Wanderer89 said:

In this 20 over format the games are so tight that I tend to stay away from the outright match betting. Like yesterday Bangalore were such poor odds so I looked to the 6s market. Coral had a market Bangalore to score over 6.5 sixes at 4/6. Low odds , yes, but they have such big hitters in their team I thought they could smash this even Gayle alone could manage it. Gayle didn't even score a run and it still crossed the line.

Today skybet are offering 10/11 for under 11.5 sixes. Both of these teams have struggled so far in this tournament. The sunrisers last home match didn't cover the line as they struggled to to get to a poor 142. Yes, in the first match they were chasing a huge total of 227 against Bangalore so had no choice but to go for big hits. Mumbai have yet to cover this line so far this tournament and although the sunrisers have big hitter Morgan I just can't see this having more than 11 sixes, I think it will edgey as both teams could really do with a win.

Excellent tip. Even with a donkey three balls of bowling gifting three sixes, the bet was still comfortable. Really good stuff, thank you. 

 

Keep it up, this forum needs more tips like this. 

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts KKR to beat Kings XI Punjab at 7/10 with Boylesports

1pt Gambhir to be top batsman in the match at 11/2 with Skybet

Kings XI Punjab sprung a real surprise when they beat the Rising Pune Supergiants, but they will need a similar performance here to defeat a strong Kolkata side when the teams meet in Mohali.

Last time out it took a strong bowling display to bring Punjab into the game, before telling contributions from Vijay, Vohra and Maxwell got them over the line. Maxwell’s knock was particularly impressive, though if history is anything to go by, we might have to wait a while for the next one.

Yes, they upset our tip against Pune, but this Punjab side is still pretty weak, and has one of the poorest record since the competition started.

Both their big names, Maxwell and Miller are known to be hit and miss, with both capable of special things every so often. They are good players, but won’t perform often enough to produce regular results for their team.

Shaun Marsh has made his comeback, but made no runs in two knock. He is a man who is often imperious in the BBL, but struggles in the original franchise event. They need more from these players, and even then, look light on proven match-winning ability.

As for their opponents, Kolkata welcome back Sunil Narine, and they are a side packed with match winners.

The Kolkata openers have worked particularly well, with Robin Uthappa and Gautam Gambhir seemingly clicking from the first game. There’s hardly been a failure between the pair of them, with Gambir standing out with a sparkling 90 in the convincing defeat of Sunrisers Hyderabad last time. They are 2-1 from three games, and they look good to improve that record here.

In Andre Russell, they have one of the most complete T20 cricketers in the world, a three dimensional athlete who is the epitome of the modern pro. He bowls fast, fields well and smacks the ball miles. If Chris Morris is worth $1m, this guy’s worth four.

In the middle order they have Manish Pandey, who has started this competition well, and looks set to establish himself in the India ODI team this year. It’s hard to get too excited by Yusuf Pathan, as he hasn’t scored a run in what seems like a thousand years, but Shakib al Hasan is a strong player.

As for their bowling, they have Narine, fresh from remodelling his action - hopefully it won’t do to him what it did to Saeed Ajmal. Russell is quality too, and they may also welcome Brad Hogg to add even more quality to the bowling. They will miss John Hastings for the remainder of the tournament, but they have enough to cope, starting here in Mohali where a win is on the cards.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/n7U5Sl

[Wanderer89]

Yesterday panned out as I expected so a nice profit there.

 

Today we have Kings XI Punjab at home to Kolkata. Kings XI lie rock bottom of the table having lost both their home games. Kolkata batting has been really impressive so far and I expect them to continue this today. Unibet are offering  9/10 for Kolkata to score more 4s than their opponents. In all of their 3 games so far Kings opponents have scored more 4s than them and I don't see this changing today against a very strong Kolkata side. Kolkata's openers pretty much won the last match on their own in their last game scoring 16 4s between them. Their openers also did this in their first game smashing 15 4's only losing 1 wicket. Kings Punjab have been struggling and are desperate to put in a performance. I just cant see this being today. Kolkata to score more 4s.  

Edited April 19, 2016 by Wanderer89

[BigMozzyDog]

The Wankhede Stadium is an interesting place to play for most people. Virat Kohli is no exception. The last time he played here, he bowled the final over in a World Cup semi-final. We certainly won’t be quoting you any odds on him turning the arm over against Mumbai here.

Mumbai Indians are struggling just off the foot of the table with just one win from four, and one glaringly obvious reason for their struggles is that their skipper, Rohit Sharma, is languishing in the middle order. He is one of the best openers in the business, and alongside Martin Guptill, would form a serious partnership. Alas, he isn’t selfish enough to really grab hold of this team.

As for his opposite number, Virat Kohli, there is a man who doesn’t open for his country, who is willing to step up when captain in a domestic competition. Perhaps there is the difference between the two men.

Virat Kohli finds himself the leader of an all star cast that has so far been led by himself and AB de Villiers, both of whom have managed big scores.

Somewhat subdued has been the big Jamaican blaster, Chris Gayle. He is surely primed to explode onto the scene at some stage… preferably when there is no left arm seam on the scene. Sadly for the fans, it won’t be this game, with the World Universe Boss returning to home for the birth of his son. In his place comes talented Aussie, Travis Head, who showed plenty of skill in the BBL.

Any side without Gayle is weaker talent wise, but RCB could find themselves with more balance, with ability done the order with Head and Jadhav. Perhaps they will be better for the arrival of a little Gayle Storm.

This is a game that is not easy to predict, and if Sharma were opening with Guptill it might just tip the balance, but instead, I am going with an RCB side which has enjoyed two significant partnerships already between Kohli and De Villiers. Those two in firm is enough to win any game.

Royal Challengers Bangalore are available at 8/11 with Skybet.

Rather than tackling the very competitive player markets in this game, I’m looking to the sixes field, where the RCB are a huge price to hit the most maximums. AB and Kohli could decimate this market in just a few overs, with the Protea the likely candidate to make a mess of the opposition bowling.

RCB are 10/11 with Paddy Power to hit the most sixes.

Full preview: http://punts.pl/88F4J0

[Wanderer89]

Another comfortable winner yesterday

 

Today is a very tough game to call. Bangalore will be missing their big hitter Gayle. He hasn't been in form in the last couple of matches but it's still a big loss so a lot depends on if Kohli and De Villiers can keep up their fine form. If they can't, I really fancy Mumbai to take this one. Both of these teams will be up there come the end of the tournament and Mumbai, who are usually very good at home have been struggling recently but I think are a better all round team. Bangalores bowling worries me and with Bangalore desperately missing Starc and now without Gayle for 2 matches. These are big players missing. Hopefully Sharma will push himself up the order and will bring out great value in the home team to come out on top here at 6/5 with bet365