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Ashtee

2016 AFL ROUND 3

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Doubt there will be too much following after last week's debacle! In retrospect, Saints and Blues were poor selections (two too many :$) but the others I was happy with, just that they lost. Been there before, so keep going:

St Kilda @ 3.05 & + 18.5 @ 1.90

Step well down in grade. Silence through the week is good sign regards getting selves up for maiden win, while Collingwood deal with coming down from euphoric win. Saints are not at all disadvantaged for talent on the park and I make them a slight favorite despite that game is not at Docklands. Current offers still as high as 2.90 is fantastic deal but dropping as I type.

Richmond @ 2.10

Impressive Adelaide @ 1-1 thus far but I suspect they'll find themselves under siege from a much harder nosed Richmond in this. I've marked Tigers a clear favorite.

Western Bulldogs @ 2.38

The money has seriously come for them today but still plenty of value left at underdog odds. They should be up for it and should proove too good. Hawthorn will find backing up a special effort hugely tougher than a West Coast on the road.

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16 hours ago, binomial said:

i am looking at jumping on round two winners to get whiplashed again.

haven't looked too closely yet but leaning Essendon, Adelaide, Brisbane and WC.

Eagles, Crows and Dogs should all win.

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You taking the Crows, crowbot?

GWS @ 3.44 & +20.5 @ 1.98

Sydney have impressed but two poor opponents. This game is a major step up in grade for them, an opponent who themselves have impressed from the preseason and should be forgiven for sloppy Rd-1 and not be underestimated for perhaps getting Geelong off the boil. This should be a tightly fought out contest and Giants are well over the odds IMO.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Ashtee said:

You taking the Crows, crowbot?

GWS @ 3.44 & +20.5 @ 1.98

Sydney have impressed but two poor opponents. This game is a major step up in grade for them, an opponent who themselves have impressed from the preseason and should be forgiven for sloppy Rd-1 and not be underestimated for perhaps getting Geelong off the boil. This should be a tightly fought out contest and Giants are well over the odds IMO.

Hi Ash, yes I am all over the Crows. I took a long time to land on them so the odds are not great at $1.95 but they should win comfortably.

 

 

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12 hours ago, Ashtee said:

Gerrard Healy's commentary on the Richmond - Adelaide game :eyes! Couldn't half tell he'd backed Adelaide :lol, only I suspect he was on >39.5? 

I suspect a lot are, inside knowledge of the entire game is massive and have the :bank" to back it up.Whatley on AFL360 openly states that he gambles.

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Having some issues finding some data and figured my last best hope was @Ashtee Do you know where I can get AFL odds (specifically line) data for seasons 2009 and earlier? Footywire has it from 2010 onwards and Odds portal has it for bits of 2009 but was wondering if anyone knew of a more comprehensive set of data? 

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3 hours ago, Crouch Potato said:

Having some issues finding some data and figured my last best hope was @Ashtee Do you know where I can get AFL odds (specifically line) data for seasons 2009 and earlier? Footywire has it from 2010 onwards and Odds portal has it for bits of 2009 but was wondering if anyone knew of a more comprehensive set of data? 

No, I don't know of a site. It's only of recent seasons that I've kept a record of opening h'cap. I would have a record of opening moneyline, going back to about 2002 (perhaps incomplete in spots).

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4 hours ago, manc111 said:

Why are the totals so low on the crows/roos game,138 from most books seems silly?

Rain all day, although could be hit or miss game time. Was probably on low side IMO but a real gamble on weather.

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On 6/20/2016, 6:51:39, Ashtee said:

No, I don't know of a site. It's only of recent seasons that I've kept a record of opening h'cap. I would have a record of opening moneyline, going back to about 2002 (perhaps incomplete in spots).

No worries. Thanks for the reply! Good luck for the rest of the season

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