MLB 2016 Season Daily picks

[danj2202]

My main play for today is 

4 pts Minnesota Twins to beat Baltimore Orioles 2.10 William Hill

If we trust that Ervin Santana has truly solved the HR issues he has suffered in the past and that last season is not a mirage, it is difficult to see this Baltimore lineup full of Power hitters who dont hit for average or walk and strike out too much scoring lots of runs. Chris Tillman has historically struggled early in the season, April has been his worst month performance wise for the last three seasons so I am willing to play the Twins in expectation of that trend continuing

[danj2202]

 

On 4/4/2016, 3:18:48, danj2202 said:

4 pts Minnesota Twins to beat Baltimore Orioles 2.10 William Hill 

[danj2202]

so 0-1 -4.00 the season thus far

 

the pesky rain got involved and my perceived edge on the starters evaporated with the clouds as relief pitching took over after 2 innings 

Main play today is

5 pts LA Dodgers (-1.5) to beat San Diego Padres 2.40 Bet365

The Dodgers destroyed the Padres last night and Kazmir will pitch tonight, despite not having beaten the Friars in his career, only a couple of starts against them, he is solid. He will be opposed by James Shields who if not for Pablo Sandoval may have signed the worst contract in baseball last season. He led MLB in HRs allowed last year even managing to allow 19 at cavernous PETCO Park. Unless he has turned it all around in the offseason he may well get hit in this game as well as the Dodgers appear to be swinging the lumber very well. Wouldnt put you off buying some runs on the alternate run lines either

[slizorn]

Welcome back mate, good to see you around again Dan!

Edited April 6, 2016 by slizorn

[danj2202]

2 hours ago, slizorn said:

Welcome back mate, good to see you around again Dan!

Hey slizorn, yeah I didnt have the time to post much last year in the end and if I am going to do so I am going to try and do the best I can, will be hoping to stick a selection a day up in here for all the crew that were following me until my disappearance last season. Had a good day with all the tips I put out yesterday including the Dodgers so onwards and up

 

22 hours ago, danj2202 said:

 

5 pts LA Dodgers (-1.5) to beat San Diego Padres 2.40 Bet365

So that takes us to

 

1-1 +3.00 on the thread

[danj2202]

Todays main selection

4 pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Cleveland Indians 3.30 Bet365

Carlos Carrasco is up for Cleveland tonight and they have high hopes that he steps up to the elite next level in Cleveland this year to develop the 1-2 punch of Kluber and Carrasco. His worst month of the season is April though and the last 3 years he has gone 2-6 with a 6.70 ERA in 9 April starts - not good. Clay Bucholz was just about the only highlight in the atrocity that was the Red Sox pitching last year and then he got hurt. If he is as effective now as he was then, with the ay the Red Sox seemingly got on base at will against the excellent Kluber yesterday then they could make an absolute nonsense of this price.

 

Good luck all who have a play today!!!! 

[danj2202]

Thought the BoSox were going to get there when they came back but alas they couldnt recover from the horseshit served up by Bucholz

On 4/6/2016, 2:48:37, danj2202 said:

 

4pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Cleveland Indians 3.30 Bet365

 

Season record:1-2 (-1.00)

Todays main selection

 

4pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.50 Bet365

Minnesota have struggled to score runs in this series and Baltimore have taken both games despite being a power filled home run heavy offense against ground ball pitchers sent to the hill by the Twins. Tonight they get to face Minnesotas Phil Hughes who historically has struggled with allowing homers. If Minnesotas bats dont wake up, and they have struggled in the past against Ubaldo Jiminez the O's pitcher this evening then this could be a blowout

 

Good luck all playing today

[danj2202]

So the Orioles got there..........just

22 hours ago, danj2202 said:

4pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.50 Bet365

that takes us to 2-2 +5.00 on this thread

Todays main play

 

5 pts Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants Over 8 Total Runs 1.83 Bet365

This is the MLB leading team in runs scored at this early stage, the Dodgers against the Giants who are tied second in the same category. Throw in Matt Cain who has a 5+ ERA in his last 5 games against these Dodgers and Ross Stripling who will start for the Dodgers as their 5th starter. He won the job in camp but was only pitching at Double A level in the minor leagues last year and I am not comfortable taking LA with a pitcher who has skipped the highest level in the minor leagues (Triple A) and as such with two teams swinging the bats well and question marks over both pitchers I am happy to bet that we will exceed 8 runs in this contest.

 

Good luck all playing today 

[jawain04]

3 hours ago, danj2202 said:

So the Orioles got there..........just

that takes us to 2-2 +5.00 on this thread

Todays main play

 

5 pts Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants Over 8 Total Runs 1.83 Bet365

This is the MLB leading team in runs scored at this early stage, the Dodgers against the Giants who are tied second in the same category. Throw in Matt Cain who has a 5+ ERA in his last 5 games against these Dodgers and Ross Stripling who will start for the Dodgers as their 5th starter. He won the job in camp but was only pitching at Double A level in the minor leagues last year and I am not comfortable taking LA with a pitcher who has skipped the highest level in the minor leagues (Triple A) and as such with two teams swinging the bats well and question marks over both pitchers I am happy to bet that we will exceed 8 runs in this contest.

 

Good luck all playing today 

Good luck Dan!

Have a money line parlay on for tonight:

Cubs, Pirates, Mets, Royals and Indians 10/1

[danj2202]

24 minutes ago, jawain04 said:

Good luck Dan!

Have a money line parlay on for tonight:

Cubs, Pirates, Mets, Royals and Indians 10/1

cheers jawain 

 

wouldnt disagree with any of those games really. best of luck

[jawain04]

19 hours ago, danj2202 said:

cheers jawain 

 

wouldnt disagree with any of those games really. best of luck

typically cubs let me down at of the 5. 

any tips for today?

[danj2202]

Well, that didnt quite go to plan

On 4/8/2016, 1:32:40, danj2202 said:

 

5 pts Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants Over 8 Total Runs 1.83 Bet365

takes us to 2-3 levels on the season 

 

My main play today is

 

4 pts Washington Nationals to beat Miami Marlins 2.35 Bet365

Tom Koehler takes the hill for the Marlins and is a middle of the road pitcher with a 4= ERA through 87 career starts. In Washington he struggles massively1-4 and teh ERA spikes above 6. Bryce Harper in particular sees the baseball more like a beach ball with 5 career home runs off Koehler.
 

Joe Ross showed enough when he pitched in the rotation last year while Strasburg was hurt to convince he is a reasonable starter, his 4-2 mark with a 2.44 ERA at home also helps aid the confidence in this pick. He only faced Miami a couple of times when pitching in relief later in the year so we cant really take much from a small sample size but he didnt allow any runs in relief against the Marlins. Could be a fairly simple job from the starters, lets just hope the Nats relievers dont blow another game here

 

Good luck if you are playing today folks 

[jawain04]

Only one for me today.

2pt Dodgers v Giant U4.5 runs at 9/4 Bet365

We all know Kershaw and Bumgarner don't give up many runs. Even with both of the offences firing early season I think this will be a close game and Giants stadium doesn't have many runs. 

Good luck all!

[danj2202]

7 hours ago, danj2202 said:

 

4 pts Washington Nationals to beat Miami Marlins 2.35 Bet365 POSTPONED VOID

so with that game postponed I am going to put up another selection

 

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies - Matt Kemp to hit a HR and San Diego to win 2 pts @10.00 Paddy Power

Jorge De la Rosa historically has navigated Coors Field very well, however the Padres have given him absolute fits,he went 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA against them in 4 starts last year including 9 runs allowed in 2 innings in the only start against San Diego at Coors. Matt Kemp has hit 3 HR in 27 plate appearances against De la Rosa in the last 5 years and seems a reasonable bet to go deep again at altitude having hit .375 and 1 home run so far this year for a San Diego lineup that exploded with 13 runs yesterday after 3 games being blanked by the Dodgers. Drew Pomeranz goes for San Diego and that seems a bigger concern with regards to the Padres win. For the more faint of heart of you just bet runs in this game alternatively to this selection

 

Good Luck all playing tonight 

[jawain04]

15 hours ago, jawain04 said:

Only one for me today.

2pt Dodgers v Giant U4.5 runs at 9/4 Bet365

We all know Kershaw and Bumgarner don't give up many runs. Even with both of the offences firing early season I think this will be a close game and Giants stadium doesn't have many runs. 

Good luck all!

Lost it by 1 run at the top of the 9th. 

[jawain04]

15 hours ago, danj2202 said:

so with that game postponed I am going to put up another selection

 

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies - Matt Kemp to hit a HR and San Diego to win 2 pts @10.00 Paddy Power

Jorge De la Rosa historically has navigated Coors Field very well, however the Padres have given him absolute fits,he went 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA against them in 4 starts last year including 9 runs allowed in 2 innings in the only start against San Diego at Coors. Matt Kemp has hit 3 HR in 27 plate appearances against De la Rosa in the last 5 years and seems a reasonable bet to go deep again at altitude having hit .375 and 1 home run so far this year for a San Diego lineup that exploded with 13 runs yesterday after 3 games being blanked by the Dodgers. Drew Pomeranz goes for San Diego and that seems a bigger concern with regards to the Padres win. For the more faint of heart of you just bet runs in this game alternatively to this selection

 

Good Luck all playing tonight 

Nice bet that Dan!

[danj2202]

16 hours ago, danj2202 said:

 

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies - Matt Kemp to hit a HR and San Diego to win 2 pts @10.00 Paddy Power

well that worked out with Kemp going deep twice and an easy Padres win !!!

 

takes us to 3-3-1 (+18.00) for the season

 

todays play is

4 pts Kansas City Royals (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.35 Bet365

Ricky Nolasco takes the hill for the Twins. He was terrible last year with an ERA north of 6 for the Twins and struggled massively since his move to the American League and allowed 5 runs in less than 3 innings when he bumped in to the Royals last year. 

Say what you want about Edinson Volquez, and I am not usually keen on trusting him but the Twins havent found their bats yet at this point in the year and Volquez won game one of last years World Series and looked in fine form on Opening Day. In opposition for Nolasco there is every opportunity that the Royals could win quite comfortably tonight

 

good luck if you are playing today 

[danj2202]

1 hour ago, jawain04 said:

Nice bet that Dan!

Yep turned out nice!!!!

Unlucky on your under from yesterday, felt for you when they loaded them up in the 9th as it looked in trouble

[danj2202]

On 4/10/2016, 2:31:42, danj2202 said:

 

4 pts Kansas City Royals (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.35 Bet365

Well that was no good so 3-4-1 +14.00 the season

 

Todays main play

 

8pts David Price to record 9+ Strikkeouts and Boston Red Sox to beat Baltimore Orioles 2.80 paddy Power

Yeah I know Baltimore are the last remaining unbeaten but this matchup is two pitchers who have solid records againt todays opponents. Price has excelled at Fenway as a visitor  (6-1 for his career) and makes his debut for Boston in his new home tonight. He is a pitcher who ranks around the top 5 in baseball for strikeouts every year and faces a Baltimoe lineup that either strikes out or hits the ball a long way, they dont walk. Price struck out 10 in his opening day start and should reasonably be expected to at least match that tonight. If Boston can get to Gallardo who has decent numbers against them but has never been a model of consistency then this is a really nice price.....no pun intended tonight!!!!

 

Best of Luck if you play 

[danj2202]

23 hours ago, danj2202 said:

 

 

8pts David Price to record 9+ Strikkeouts and Boston Red Sox to beat Baltimore Orioles 2.80 paddy Power

 

So of course Price labours through 5 innings, gets only 8 strikeouts but the Baltimore win it late to make it all irrelevant, man the boston red sox cant pitch

3-5-1 +6.00 pts

 

Todays main play is:

 

6 pts Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Over 9 total runs 1.95 William Hill

Mike Wright pitches for Baltimore today and started on fire last year thru 2 starts before collapsing down the stretch losing his last 6 with an ERA north of 10. Clay Bucholz opposes for the BoSox and is wildly inconsistent and has been over the last two injury plagued years. He allowed 4 runs in the first inning of the opener and neither of these teams is struggling to score runs, the chances of double digit runs being posted today looks quite high in this match, particularly if the wind is blowing out at Fenway tonight like it was yesterday

 

Good luck all who play today

[danj2202]

On 4/12/2016, 3:03:10, danj2202 said:

 

6 pts Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Over 9 total runs 1.95 William Hill

 

4-5-1 +11.70

If it aint broke dont fixit!

6 pts Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Over 9 Total Runs 1.86 Bet365

Today we get these two lineups thaat are hitting fairly well Baltimore in particular against Joe Kelly who was hideous his first start and now has a team that has the platoon advantage on him in the main and he has struggled with in the past compiling an ERA north of 7 against the O's. Ubaldo Jiminez is up for the undefeated Orioles and he looked good in his first start but is a pitcher who has experienced struggles in the past against Boston with a 7+ ERA at Fenway Park. Hard to see past runs again tonight really and a little surprised they didnt at least shade it half a run higher

 

good luck all who play 

[danj2202]

20 hours ago, danj2202 said:

 

6 pts Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Over 9 Total Runs 1.86 Bet365

4-6-1 +5.70

Well only 6 runs last night so on to todays play

4 pts Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) to bt San Diego Padres 2.75 Bet365

I must be feeling ill taking the Phillies!!! In all seriousness they wanted Velasquez in the trade with Houston that sent closer Ken Giles the other way and Velasquez delivered with an excellent performance his first time out for Philly. Now he gets to take on the light hitting San Diego Padres who ended a 20 inning scoreless streak with a late run last night. This from a team that also got shut out three consecutive times to start the year. Drew Pomeranz pitches for SD and is average at best though his career numbers are a little skewed by having started for Colorado for a few seasons. There is a little reliance on the Phillies actually scoring some runs and their bullpen keeping a lead in tact tied up in this bet but realistically against the Friars there is a strong possibility that 3 runs will bring this in

 

Best of Luck if you play today 

[danj2202]

On 4/14/2016, 1:37:19, danj2202 said:

 

4 pts Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) to bt San Diego Padres 2.75 Bet365

that worked out as well as we could hope, velasquez was fantastic for Philly!!!

5-6-1 +12.70

On to todays selection

4 pts St Louis Cardinals (-1.5) to beat Cincinnati Reds 2.20 Bet365

Carlos Martinez has been excellent at home throughout his career, the somewhat questionable St Louis lineup has made hay when they have had the advantage of feasting on poor pitching and tonight is the turn of Tim Melville who did well on debut but it will tae a lot more than that for me to trust a pitcher making his 2nd big league start that carries a minor league ERA of 4+ into the big leagues. St Louis could score a few again tonight and with Martinez on the hill are taken to cover the standard run line, couldn't bring myself to trust this offense to buy any extra runs though!!

 

good luck if you are having a play today 

[danj2202]

On 4/15/2016, 3:32:19, danj2202 said:

 

4 pts St Louis Cardinals (-1.5) to beat Cincinnati Reds 2.20 Bet365

6-6-1 +17.10

fairly simple with a 14-3 win last night

here is todays selection

4 pts Chicago Cubs(-2.5) to beat Colorado Rockies 2.40 Bet365

There is no doubt the Rockies can hit, but Mr consistency Jake Arrieta the reigning Cy Young Award winner in the National League goes tonight for the cubbies. Chicago can score as well and boast the best run differential in baseball at this early stage of the season but already by a wide margin. They too can score with the best of them and a loaded lineup is a good chance for us to cash in on the sub par Christian Bergman while he is in the majors, his career ERA is 5.43 and that simply should not be good enough in a good park for the hitters. I dont like to take odds on run lines so will buy a run to 2.40 here

 

Good luck all having a play today 

[danj2202]

21 hours ago, danj2202 said:

 

4 pts Chicago Cubs(-2.5) to beat Colorado Rockies 2.40 Bet365

7-6-1 +22.70

 

another comfortable win and a strong play tonight

10 pts Washington (-1.5) to beat Philadelphia 2.10 Bet365

The Nationals bats have woken up with 23 runs in the last 3 games and they face Charlie Morton who had a good start last time out versus an inept San Diego Padres lineup but was hit hard by a below average Cincinnati reds lineup the first start. Morton looks likely to experience issues with Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy today as he has issues against left handed batters and this is a problem against two of the hottest hitters in the game. Harper reigning NL MVP has hit a home run each of the last 3 nights and Murphy leads the league in batting average with a .438 mark at this early stage. Gio Gonzalez goes for the Nats and was outstanding first time up, Gonzalez isnt always consistent but this is not a Phiilies lineup that boasts a lot of run production and even if Gonzalez isnt on his game today then its hard to imagine the Nats not winning, lets just hope the relief pitching holds up today as well, they have won by 7 and 8 the last 2 nights

 

Good luck if you are playing today 

[danj2202]

On 4/17/2016, 3:43:25, danj2202 said:

 

10 pts Washington (-1.5) to beat Philadelphia 2.10 Bet365

 

7-7-1 +12.70

Something of a disastrous outcome as the Phillies win it in extras sigh

Hers is today's main play

5 pts Over 8.5 Total Runs Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds 1.83 Bet365

This game features two pitchers who are struggling mightily. Alfredo Simon carries an ERA over 11 into teh game at this point of the season and has an ERA of 11+ when faced with these Colorado Rockies, Jorge de la Rosa will oppose for the Rox and he showed improvement - though still not good last time out ut has struggled when visiting Cincinnati in the past where his ERA is over 6, certainly Colorado can score runs and lots of them, the Reds have not troubled the scoreboard quite so often this year as they rebuild their team, that being said 8.5 runs looks low - the two teams did fo under that total last night but this is a far worse pitching matchup

 

Good luck all having a play today 

[danj2202]

1 hour ago, danj2202 said:

 

5 pts Over 8.5 Total Runs Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds 1.83 Bet365 VOID - PITCHING CHANGE

 

7-7-2 +12.70

 

Alfredo Simon scratched by the Reds so money back void so will put a different game up

3 pts Miami Marlins (-1.5) to beat Washington Nationals 3.65 Bet365

Stephen Strasburg has had issues throughout his career with the Marlins and has an ERA over 6 his last 7 against them, I am willing to take a chance that teh struggles continue and Adam COnley continues to make strides shown in his last start against the Mets, just feel the market is over reacting to Strasburgs name and not his performance against these Marlins, Ozuna and Stanton have particularly good numbers against him

[danj2202]

Something of a disastrous week for me this week

On 4/19/2016, 5:13:35, danj2202 said:

 

3 pts Miami Marlins (-1.5) to beat Washington Nationals 3.65 Bet365

7-8-2 +9.70

Todays play is 

4 pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 3.25 Bet365

The Red Sox celebrate 104 years of Fenway Park today by hosting division rival Tampa. The way Chris Archer has pitched this year has been dreadful with serious control issues and walking too many batters, he will be opposed by Rick Porcello who I dont entirely trust and has allowed a few runs himself but has still been more consistent than Archer, There is far more potential for runs in this Red Sox lineup particularly the way Archer has pitched. The way this week has gone though Archer will turn up and pitch a gem and Porcello will implode!!!!!

 

Best of luck if playing today (you may need it)

[danj2202]

On 4/20/2016, 5:07:26, danj2202 said:

 

4 pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Tampa Bay Rays 3.25 Bet365

Well back on the winning road!!!

8-8-2 +18.70

4 pts Toronto (-1.5) to bt Baltimore 2.75 Bet365

Chris Tillman gets hit hard by this Jays lineup, he has lost 6 straight, is winless in more than 10 starts against them and had an ERA over 11 against the Blue Jays last season. Marco Estrada will pitch for the Jays in opposition and while not great last time against Boston had an ERA of approx 3.5 in starts against them last year. stick the money down and watch the annual Blue ays "Tillman Feast" in this one

 

good luck all having a play 

 

 

 

 

 

[danj2202]

On 4/21/2016, 6:55:20, danj2202 said:

4 pts Toronto (-1.5) to bt Baltimore 2.75 Bet365

Well back on the downward trend!!

8-9-2 +14.70

todays play

4 pts Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox Under 8 total runs 1.86 Bet365

Jose Quintana is excellent on the hill and ultra consistent for Chicago, you are almost guaranteed 6 innings with max 2 runs allowed before handing the game over to the bullpen and a set of relievers with the lowest ERA in baseball to this point in the season. The White Sox lineup is struggling and has historically struggled with left handed pitching. Texas sends lefty Martin Perez to the mound tonight and this would suggest Chicago may not be putting a lot of crooked numbers on the scoreboard either and as such 8 looks a stretch

 

Good luck all playing today