Euro 2016 > Group F Outright

[Sir Puntalot]

[Smartsportsincome]

Portugal

 

 

The draw

 

 

The final group head is also the longest in the outright market at 18,5 (Betfair). That seems a bit odd given the fact that the group is by far the softest and features two “small” nations. The knockout round is where the juicy fruits are hanging for Portugal and coming first or second probably doesn’t make a ton of difference in terms of difficulty. If they win their group they will have to take on the second-placed team froup group E and go possibly through England and Spain in the top half of the draw. In the bottom half they get a bit of a break with an easier team from England’s group but have a high probability of playing Germany and France.  And we aren’t even talking about the final yet! Portugal has been a tricky customer for the most part of their tournament appearances but that is a lot (too much) to ask of them.

 

 

The team

 

 

After a quite embarrassing opening loss to Albania, Portugal went seven straight wins to secure safe passage to the tournament. They are well-known for being a physically strong, talented, counter-attacking side. Little has changed in that respect. In attack Ronaldo is still the go-to-guy. Miguel Veloso doesn’t feature this time around but Joao Moutinho is now the brain in midfield. Portugal can field a ton of physically strong players, William Carvalho, Perreira and teenage star Renato Sanches to name only a few in midfield. Defensively they are reliably compact and as athletic as ever, even when accounting for Ronaldo’s negligible contribution on that end. Only once has Portugal conceded two goals in a match since the last World Cup, in a 3-2 win over Armenia. Their offense is much better suited to counter-attacking football, so Portugal can often struggle to break down an opponent when they have to force play. They led only once at halftime during their eight qualification matches and won two with goals deep in injury time. Even without those goals they would have qualified but the setup will be the same in their group. Thus it might not be quite the cakewalk you would initially expect.

 

 

The group stage

 

 

Portugal opens against the tournament sensation Iceland. This is without a doubt going to be an interesting match. Looking at Iceland’s strong dip in form and the added pressure of their first tournament appearance, I cannot help but think that Portugal is in for a quite straightforward win in here. I picked up on Portugal’s tendency to finish matches stronger than they started them due to their athletic capabilities. No doubt they will hold the upper hand in that regard in this fixture too and we can use that (I hope) nicely to our advantage. I would like to see 1,75 before going full steam ahead on Portugal. Goals should be an option here too. Iceland has been leaking goals and I will discuss that further down in their preview. Austria is next and the talented Austrians will pose a much bigger challenge I feel. However, they should also give Portugal some space to operate on the counter. This match could go either way and odds look spot on. Hungary is the weakest team of the group but not necessarily much easier as they will be content to sit back and defend for their lives. Again, I expect fitness and quality to prevail and Portugal should get the three points there as well.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

Portugal is a rare case. I think they will actually thrive more when they enter the knockout stages and can finally play on the counter as they prefer to. They have enough talent and the right tactics to frustrate a lot of other teams. Getting there might be a bit of a pain, despite the ridiculously easy group. A QF appearance looks pretty achievable, a SF might be on too. Their hard draw and their style of play guarantees some tough and tight matches. Portugal might not go all the way but they will make their opponents miserable I feel.

 

 

Picks

 

 

Portugal to beat Iceland 1 Unit @1,75 – in play as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11

 

 

Iceland

 

 

The team

 

 

Out of all outsiders this is probably the one that is most exciting, unusual and that most people want to see. Iceland sensationally booked qualification in a really tough group with the Czech Republic, Turkey and the Netherlands. And they truly deserved it too by finishing in style and avoiding the playoffs. On their way to the tournament Iceland scored some sensational results, beating the Dutch twice and Turkey and the Czechs once. They were equally impressive at both ends, scoring 17 and conceding only six. Although defense comes first, Iceland is not the stereotypical counterpunching side that defends deep. They like to play rather high up the pitch when in possession and operate with long balls and vertical passes to the flanks. Set pieces are a particular strength of Iceland. They managed to score half their goals in qualification from set pieces.

Their liabilities are their tactical simplicity, a lack of experience and a pretty significant dip in form. Portugal and Austria will hardly be fooled by Iceland’s tactics and should come prepared with the Nordics’ strong results in mind. The second point is pretty self-explanatory. Iceland picked up its two losses away from home and one can expect them to be somewhat impressed by the big stage they are playing on for the first time. Last but not least, Iceland won three but lost six of its friendlies since locking up its place in France. They also conceded at least two in each of their losses and that downtrend is coming at the wrong time for them.

 

 

The group stage

 

 

Iceland opens against Portugal and I outlined my thoughts above why Portugal should overpower them. I mentioned their defensive woes recently and I will opt for the over at slightly higher odds. There’s a good chance they will be desperate for points in their second match against Hungary and that makes it very hard to call. I feel odds look a bit on the high side for Iceland but I would like to see their level of play first to make a decision. They play Austria last and I would be surprised if that match did not feature goals. With the tricky draw situation in this group though, it would be foolish to call anything early.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

Iceland will look to pick up three or maybe four points and somehow secure themselves another match. That would be the cherry on the pie for their last two years’ work. Either way, participation is already a massive success for them. Their unorthodox style of play should make for more entertainment than a lot of other teams and win them at least some fans if not points.

 

 

Picks

 

 

Portugal vs Iceland Over 2 goals – 1 Unit@2,0 inplay as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11

 

 

Austria

 

 

The team

 

 

Austria is probably THE dark horse and not-so-insider tip for the tournament. They boast a very well-attuned starting 11 and plenty of talent that could take them quite far. Qualification has been nothing short of impressive with 28 out of 30 possible points. A lot of their squad plays in the German Bundesliga, Fuchs (Leicester) and Arnautovic (Stoke) in the Premier League. On top they have one of the world’s most talented polyvalent players in David Alaba, who is already a legitimate star at only 23. In qualifications Austria was highly impressive defensively with their well-coordinated pressing. That is thanks to the small rotation they use but also a result of a lot of players playing in Germany where a strong pressing system is vital to a lot of teams counterattacks. Austria has that and good build-up play as well. Alaba, Baumgartlinger and Junuzovic in midfield are all players that are capable of excelling different roles and complement each other very well. In attack Harnik and Arnautovic have somewhat different profiles. Harnik is more a center forward that cuts inside the box to find the goal, Arnautovic likes to take a dribble and set up a pass or shoot from range after that. Janko balances them extremely well and is a vital component to their offensive setup.

As good as Austria’s form was in qualifications, they seem to have dipped at just the wrong time. They lost three of their last five friendlies (beating minnows Albania and Malta) and conceded in all of them. In addition, their starting lineup is very competitive but they have almost nothing to add off the bench. That isn’t necessarily a huge problem at a tournament but players will need to stay fit.

 

 

The group stage

 

I can keep this short. Austria is a clear favourite against Hungary and of course has to pick up full points to keep their chances. Similar to Poland-Northern Ireland, I think odds are decent and I will only wait a bit to get involved at 1,8. I covered their match against Portugal. With full points in the bank, Austria will play with confidence and could make things very interesting. If they drop points in the opener, it will force them to go for it more and that will suit Portugal’s play on the counter. The last match against Iceland is, like a mentioned, a crapshoot and too early to call.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

I much like this Austrian side. They have a very cohesive and fine-tuned team that works together well and is full of confidence after a sensational qualifying campaign. Marcel Koller is a much underrated manager that in my opinion deserves a chance at a upper midlevel club. Their draw has been kind to them and Austria should aim for second place to play the runner-up of Group A not E. All in all, I fancy their chances to live up to the hype and I’ve taken them to reach the QF at 2,63 (Bet365).

 

 

Picks

 

 

Austria to reach the QF – 1 Unit@2,625 (Bet365)

Austria/Portugal Dual Forecast - 1 Unit@2 (Ladbrokes)

Austria to beat Hungary – 1 Unit@1,8 inplay as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11

 

 

Hungary

 

 

The final team of a long preview is one I know very little about so I am content to keep this short. Hungary won a measly two out of eight qualifiers (excluding vs Faröer) in a really poor group that Northern Ireland topped. Hats off to them eliminating Norway in two matches but I doubt they will be able to convince people why this whole tournament was stretched to 24 teams in the first place. Hungary plays a classic defensive brand of football without any notable stars. Austria and Portugal will be too strong for them barring a major surprise. They might give Iceland a good run and a win there wouldn’t make headlines. But I very much doubt they can qualify even in such a weak group. Their offense is missing in action and their defense should concede quite a few to put the R16 out of reach.

[StevieDay1983]

Group F Betting Preview

The final group at Euro 2016 is one of the most unpredictable ones. Portugal stand out as the favourites to win the group led by Cristiano Ronaldo. However, Iceland and Austria both enjoyed very impressive qualification campaigns and are being tipped to make an impression at this tournament. Even the group underdogs of Hungary have the potential to cause an upset with former Germany international Andreas Moller on their management team.

Selection

Marco Janko to Finish Austria's Top Goalscorer @ 3.00 with Coral

Full Article: http://punts.pl/4herPV