Euro 2016 > Group E Outright

[Sir Puntalot]

[StevieDay1983]

Group E Betting Preview

This group appears to have two stand-out favourites in Belgium and Italy to qualify but Republic of Ireland and Sweden are not to be underestimated. Belgium are renowned for being a fantastic group of individuals who have been unable to replicate their talent into a team effort. Italy head coach Antonio Conte might have one eye on the Chelsea job that awaits him after this tournament. The Irish beat world champions Germany 1-0 during their qualification campaign and Sweden possess the unreal talent of Zlatan Ibrahimovic who will be key to any progress they make.

Selections

Italy To Win Group E @ 2.75 with Sky Bet

Republic of Ireland to Qualify from Group E @ 2.30 with Paddy Power

Full Article: http://punts.pl/IdbOPj

[Smartsportsincome]

Group E Preview:

 

Belgium

 

 

The draw

 

 

An incredible pool of talented players means that Belgium is more probable to win the whole thing than traditional powerhouses like Italy or Portugal at 13 (Betfair). In yet another probably low-scoring group, Belgium will have to be on its toes. Each opponent has a different profile but all can prove to be a potential roadbump. Winning the group would match them with the second-placed team from Spain’s group and likely mean they would have to face Germany and France further down the road. Coming second is not much more appealing and means taking on Portugal and England if both hold on to their favourite status. Even worse would be coming third to play Spain or France in the next round. Either way you look at it, the draw has not been nice to Belgium and it is hard to make a case for any play on them. If anything, laying the 13 looks like a solid investment given the amount of quality they need to go through to win the tournament.

 

 

Their strengths

 

 

The sheer amount of talent is mind-boggling and guaranteed no team will happily take on Belgium. Courtois, Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku are only the biggest stars. Belgium fields a starting 11 where pretty much all players are familiar names for any semi-regular follower of football. Most impressive is their attack, which features Benteke, Origi and Carrasco besides the already named ones. That is three players playing at teams that were in European cup finals this year coming off the bench! Even without injured Kompany their defense is only little less impressive with Vermaelen and Aldeweireld in the center. No surprise that Belgium scored a solid 14 goals in eight matches when not playing Andorra to easily qualify for the group. They did fail to score twice against Wales though and that brings me directly to…

 

 

Their weaknesses

 

 

Despite the crazy amount of talent at its disposal, Belgium can seem oddly uninspiring at times. The team could and should easily be playing at the same level as the top three favourites but seems to rely too often on the individual quality of its stars. Belgium does get a fair amount of goals and indeed has been shut out only by Wales since its World Cup exit. It is more reflected in its style of play which often relies on infuriatingly slow build-up and crosses or long balls to its athletically gifted central forwards. The result is often a much slower pace and less attractive and attacking football than Belgium is capable of on paper.

Another weakness is their leaking defense. Belgium hasn’t kept a clean sheet in their last seven matches and losing Kompany certainly doesn’t help them. Their full backs are actually central defenders and that hurts them offensively as well as defensively. They compensate a lot over pure quality but one can’t help but feel that there is quite a bit potential that goes unused.

 

 

The group stage

 

 

As mentioned, the group looks pretty difficult on paper. Italy is nominally the strongest opponent and the opening match. Belgium beat them in a friendly last fall and will feel good about its chances against a rather unimpressive Italian side. Still, I can’t help but feel that both teams will opt for a cautious approach with two matches against weaker teams still in hand. The under, although already pretty low at 1,53 (Pinnacle), looks a winner to me. The pesky Irish are next and will try to make life as hard as possible for Belgium. Quality should prevail there in what will probably not be a nice match to watch. Ibrahimovic and his more human Swedish teammates are the last opponents. 1,87 looks a bit on the high side to me and I think this is already worth a play. This could be a draw-heavy group and I do think Belgium will still need points in the last match, as will Sweden. A bit more open approach by the Swedes should suit Belgium more than the first two matches.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

This is a tough one to call and the only group I avoided on outright bets. Belgium is almost certain to qualify but it could finish anywhere from 1 to 3. They have the best team in the group by quite a distance and should, but are not guaranteed, to finish first. The amount of quality is enviable and they are probably the only team of the group that could refuse to let Ibrahimovic play for them. Underachieving and being eliminated in the R16 looks like their floor. Upsetting an out-of-sync Germany and narrowly falling to France in the Semis is a realistic ceiling. I can see anything between those two happening.

 

 

Italy

 

 

The draw

 

 

The former world champion has seen better days and you can be forgiven to think that odds of 20 (Betfair) on Italy to win it are crazy high. However, I outlined in my preview on Belgium how difficult the draw for teams from this group is and Italy looks ill-equipped to take out several teams of higher quality. They didn’t beat Croatia in two tries in qualifications and have not beaten a household name going back to 2014 in their first post-World Cup friendly 2-0 versus the Netherlands. Which by now looks much less impressive as we all know. Thus I can’t really see Italy upsetting the odds although no team will be happy to see them on the scoresheet for the knockout stages.

 

 

The team

 

 

Not really being a connoisseur of the Serie A, I am vaguely familiar with the Italian players but not really impressed to say the least. Their back three is, or should be, their strong side. Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini and Buffon all play at Juventus. Build-up play is slow and patient but lacks incisiveness and the creativity of Andrea Pirlo. Florenzi and Motta are solid but nearly as creative or spectacular as the veteran. In attack Italy has some decently talented players in Insigne and Shaarawy but nothing that would make opponents shiver. In my opinion the team lacks a proper striker as neither Zaza nor Eder or Immobile impresses me and they will have their work cut out even against Ireland.

It isn’t all that bad and Italy in fact failed to score only once since the last World Cup (0-1 to Portugal). They did lose 4-1 to Germany and 3-1 to Belgium though and conceded seven goals in qualifications. That is not too little in a group with Azerbaijan and Malta. Italy still sort of plays their old rather defensive and patient approach but looks a shadow of its former self in doing so. Neither in attack nor in defense quality is as high as in its heydays. There seem to be some open questions regarding the starting 11 as well, as Conte has been experimenting a lot in the friendlies.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

I struggle a bit to make sense of this Italian team. They do not impress me at all but I certainly can see them getting something out of their first match versus Belgium. They should be able to control Ibrahimovic but might very well not be. Ireland could frustrate them or Italy runs out a rather comfortable two goal win. Certainly no team likes to play Italy in a knockout stage match but no one will be too afraid either. Croatia would probably relish its chances in this familiar tie. In a group with Ireland I cannot see them not qualifying but after that there are few teams that I would put Italy comfortably ahead of. R16 or QF is as much as I can see them do and odds pretty much reflect that.

 

 

Sweden

 

 

 

The team

 

 

I was thinking whether I should actually name this The Team or just write Ibrahimovic and proceed with the outlook. No team is as dependent on one player but few even have some of his quality. He scored 11 of their 19 goals including relegation. He is involved in pretty much all their chances and play is focused entirely on him. That aside, Sweden is as average as they come in terms of style of play. Slow and patient build-up, trying to be compact at the back…you get the image. In terms of defending that hasn’t always worked too well, they got squashed 4-1 by Austria and lost 2-1 to Turkey in a friendly, the two nominally strongest opponents they faced. How well they fare therefore depends on how much their opponents are able to negate balls to and from Ibrahimovic and exploit the spaces he leaves when defending.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

I can keep this short. Sweden needs to win its first match against Ireland to stand any chance of progressing in this group. I can’t see them beating Belgium and they will not fancy having to go for it against Italy if they are desperate for points. I think Sweden to beat Ireland presents a bit of value – the Irish haven’t faced quite such a special player and are usually much weaker away from home. I have my doubts whether it will be enough for qualification but if it is, I cannot see them progressing one further round. Four matches max for The Legend.

 

 

Ireland

 

 

Everyone likes to see the Irish at a tournament. Maybe except for the teams that actually have to play them and have the unenviable task of breaking down their defense. They surprisingly came through a tough group thanks to sensationally picking up four points against Germany and consequently eliminated Bosnia. Ireland plays as we know and love them. Lots of passion and effort but also lots of long balls, technically very limited and most of the time defending deep. They much depend on their home advantage and picked up almost all necessary points there. The last six wins Ireland away scored were: Gibraltar, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Faröer, Estonia and Andorra. Their limited brand of football can only take them so far and participation is a success in itself. Ireland might be able to get a draw or even two but I would not count on it. Last Euro they were hopelessly outmatched and lost all matches in a very hard group with Spain, Italy and Croatia. I don’t think much will change this time and I backed them to come bottom of the group at 2,2 (Bet365). I also like the +0 handicap on Sweden to beat them in the opener at 1,66. That shouldn’t be higher than 1,55 in my opinion.

 

 

Picks

 

 

Ireland to finish bottom – 1 Unit@2,2 (Bet365)

Sweden +0 vs Ireland – 1 Unit@1,68 (Pinnacle)

[Niceguy]

The match Belgium – Italy is between the two favorites in this group. Still havnt taken my positions but like the Under 2 around 1.94. I use mollybet via betinasia.com, because there connect all my betting accounts to one account, and I can compare odds from the different bookmakers. On the screenshot you can see the odds given by different bookmakers for Under 2 in this match.
 

 

 

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