Euro 2016 > Group D Outright

[Sir Puntalot]

[StevieDay1983]

Group D Betting Preview

This is appearing to be the most wide open of the six groups at Euro 2016. Reigning European champions Spain, 1996 Semi Finalists Czech Republic, 2002 World Cup Semi Finalists Turkey, and 1998 World Cup Semi Finalists Croatia will do battle and it could be anyone's group but the Spanish will start as the favourites.

Selection

Nolito To Finish Spain's Top Goalscorer @ 9.5 with Paddy Power

Full Article: http://punts.pl/JOoVr5

[Smartsportsincome]

Spain

 

 

 

 

 

The draw

 

 

 

 

 

Third favorite at 6,2 (Pinnacle). Spain was handed a very nice draw in my opinion. They have the strongest group on paper but also the one that is likely to feature the most goals. All their opponents are stronger in attack than defense and will play slightly more open than the likes of Ireland or Wales. If things go according to plan, Spain gets the third-placed team out of the English, Belgian or Portuguese group. Austria or Sweden are probably the worst possible cases, neither of which should frighten La Roja. After that Spain plays another soft opponent in the second-placed teams from the French and German groups. Only in the Semis they could face England, Portugal or Italy. Spain should be favorite against all of those. No surprise that odds came in quite a bit already and with Spain looking stronger than at the last World Cup, a run to the final, and a possible hattrick, is certainly possible for them.

 

 

 

 

 

The team

 

 

 

 

 

Spain looks a bit a different team compared to two years ago. Xavi, Xabi Alonso and Villa are gone. Iniesta still features and is the pivotal player from the old guard. Most of the starting 11 looks set but up front Del Bosque is still experimenting with his options. Morata seems the intuitive choice but Aduriz has had an excellent season at Bilbao and started in recent friendlies too. He can go for width with Nolito or Pedro on the left or play a narrower formation with a striker and Silva. Even the false 9 seems an option. Spain’s strategy will be the same as usual, monopolize the ball and play patient possession football. They have a bit more firepower in attack but still can get caught up in not being clinical enough. Only three times they scored more than one goal in qualification when the opponent was not Luxemburg. Friendlies have been a mixed bag as well, they beat England and dropped six on Korea, but went goalless against Romania and embarrassingly lost to Georgia 0-1 in their final test. Still, their defense is very good and it will be hard to score on them, especially considering their opponents are not the most clinical teams either. In goal De Gea should start but Del Bosque still seems to be considering the experience of Casillas. In my opinion this is a no-brainer in favour of the former but don’t be surprised if Bosque goes with the veteran.

 

 

 

 

 

The group stage

 

 

 

 

 

Spain opens versus Czech Republic which is the group’s weakest team the consensus goes. I am not entirely sure about that but it is the most adventurous. Spain should not have too many issues finding the back of the net and getting a fairly straightforward three points. I would like to hold out there until the -1 handicap hits 2,0 and then pounce on that. Turkey is the second opponent and should not pose too many problems either. Odds are decent and I have no issues with taking the 2 that is offered on the handicap now. Spain should have six points in the bag when facing Croatia for the last match but at the very least be leading the group. Too early to call that match now but I definitely expect them to take seven points at least.

 

 

 

 

 

The outlook

 

 

 

 

 

A strong squad, a favourable draw, what could possibly go wrong for the defending champion? I think they learned their lesson from the last World Cup and I expect a much better showing this time around. Personally, I put my money where my mouth is a bit earlier and got them to make the SF at 2,4 at Betfair. Still 2,14 to be had and I honestly think they should be favoured to make it so I still think those odds are value. If Spain can start scoring a bit easier, another deep run looks almost inevitable.

 

 

 

 

 

Picks

 

 

 

 

 

Spain to win Group D – 1 Unit@1,57 (Bet365)

 

Spain to reach the SF – 1 Unit@2,14 (Betfair)

 

Spain -1 AHC vs Czech Republic – 1 Unit@2,0 in play as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11

 

 

 

 

 

Croatia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The team

 

 

 

 

 

Croatia has been tipped as dark horse at the last tournament – and failed to deliver. Individual quality might even be better this time but the team seems to be lacking direction in terms of tactics and management. Ante Cacic replaced Niko Kovac as manager late into the qualifying campaign. At the age of 62 he is still sorely lacking experience at the big stage. His biggest assignment was a brief stint at Dinamo Zagreb in 2011 and he has coached almost exclusively in Croatia. Needless to say that his appointment came as a big surprise. It seems questionable whether he has the tactical aptitude to prepare the team for a pretty tough group from the Croatians’ point of view. A resume of six wins and one draw after taking over looks impressive at first. Mind you that the strongest opponent Croatia defeated was Russia in a friendly. There is little to read into their final preparations as well. Croatia tested against Moldova and San Marino which seem rather odd choices in what should be one of the more offensive groups of the tournament.

 

Tactically the Croatians seem unsettled as well. Although they have talent aplenty in midfield in Rakitic, Modric, Brozovic and Kovacic, Cacic is still trying to put the pieces together. Croatia could go 4141, 4231 or three at the back. Despite having plenty of talent in midfield and a capable striker in Mandzukic, Croatia can sometimes play surprisingly uninspired and tame football. They have all the tools to impose themselves on opponents with possession football but can be oddly uncreative. Their loss to Mexico in the final group stage match in Brazil was a perfect example of that. Defensively Croatia hold up pretty well in general despite that being their weak point in terms of player quality. They conceded only five goals in qualifications and drew twice with Italy.

 

 

 

 

 

The group stage

 

 

 

 

 

The first match against Turkey will obviously be big for both teams in what promises to beat the most open group of the tournament. Croatia goes in as the deserved favorite. Some extra tension is added by the fact that Turkey famously eliminated Croatia in 2008 in the most dramatic of ways on penalties. Czech Republic is up next and Croatia should be well suited to the Czechs open approach and will definitely need to win this one to stand any chance of qualification. Spain awaits last and Croatia tends to hold its ground reasonably well against the big boys. Since La Roja might already have locked up its spot in the next round by then and be resting some players, taking a vital point could very well be on the cards.

 

 

 

 

 

The outlook

 

 

 

 

 

Croatia is possibly the most enigmatic team in the tournament. Judging by it potential, the team should easily play the quarter-finals. The reality might even end up being coming last in a pretty harsh group. Either way, the draw did not treat the teams qualifying from this group very fairly. Coming second or third, a big fish likely awaits them in what should be France, England or Belgium/Italy. Croatia can be a headache for either of these teams but it will need to get its act together fast. Unlike for a lot of other teams, Group D feels more like a “normal” Euro group and slipping up in the first match already puts the teams with their backs to the wall in the second match. If Cacic can get his tactics right and Croatia plays courageous and dominant football, I see no reason why they should not be able to qualify out of the group. If not, Croatia could be in for a disappointment again. Definitely too many question marks here and too close to call.

 

 

 

 

 

Turkey

 

 

 

 

 

The team

 

 

 

 

 

Turkey is another interesting and unpredictable team in this group. The Turks were already well and truly on their way out of qualification after getting one point in their opening three matches. They closed out with winning five out of seven to sensationally leave the Netherlands behind them. Since, Turkey has picked up some decent friendly results in beating Sweden, Austria and narrowly losing to England. Much depends on how well their stars Calhanoglu and Turan can orchestrate their attack. Turkey plays a possession-based but cautious brand of football. They often have more men behind the ball than in front of it and build up play slowly towards Calhanoglu and Turan. Defensively Turkey tends to be a bit less compact than Croatia although they conceded two only once since their poor start in qualifications (1-2 vs England). Their solid build-up play means they rarely lose their shape and opponents will need to press high to not get lulled into playing according to the Turks’ rhythm. In attack Yilmaz is the most reliable source of goals and plays a classic no.9 role.

 

 

 

 

 

The outlook

 

 

 

 

 

I can pretty much copy what here what I said about Croatia. As for Croatia, Turkey has no time to lose and immediately needs a result in their opener. Playing Spain after that, and Turkey not matching up well in this one with their lack of counter-attacking play, Turkey will have more to lose and probably start extra-cautious against Croatia. The Czechs are last and the teams split their qualifying matches, each losing at home. In case of qualifying out of the group I can see Turkey irking their opponent a bit but for me they lack Croatia’s individual class to overcome some of the better teams. Same verdict: too close to call

 

 

 

 

 

Czech Republic

 

 

 

 

 

The team

 

 

 

 

 

The Czechs have a bit habit of showing up for Euros and go missing for World Cups. The same goes for this year and their risky and offensive brand of football could make them one of the most entertaining teams to watch. The Czech Republic won its qualification group, going Over 2,5 in 8/10 matches with the other two having two goals in them. It’s been a similar story since with 5/7 friendlies going over the line. The team plays a risky counter-attacking approach, trying to force the ball into central midfield and win it back there to launch a fast attack themselves. This sounds like suicide in a group with two strong central midfields as Spain and Croatia possess and it might very well be. For what they lack in compactness the Czechs try to make up with an aggressive approach in winning the ball. In attack they wide and direct and force play on the flanks. Their goal-heavy results indicate that this works well in attack but has some obvious shortcomings in defense. Hence the highly inconsistent results in their friendly matches. The team lacks some big names it had a few years ago, the two household names are Cech and Rosicky at the tender ages of 34 and 35. In a strong group this could cost them.

 

 

 

 

 

The outlook

 

 

 

 

 

I’m excited about the Czech Republic, if only they promise to be one of the few teams that will genuinely try to attack. It looks though as this is the wrong group to do it in and Spain should feast on their incompact defense and unusual pressing approach. Croatia looks well-equipped to do the same to a lesser degree. The Czechs might have a bit more joy here with their counter attacks against the qualitatively weaker Croatian defense. Turkey looks most in their range but it has to be noted that their win over Turkey dates back to 2014 and the Turks have improved since then. In this open group the Czechs might well surprise but I think they lack too much quality and do not play the right style to go through to the next round. Playing the goals might be the way to go and I would fancy to go two out of three matches to go over 2,5.

 

Edited June 11, 2016 by Smartsportsincome

[Niceguy]

Very interesting group, in first match Croatia won Turkey, and Spain won Czech, also 1-0. Today we can see the last opportunity for Turkey and Czech. If Croatia and Spain wins, they will pass the group. Some interesting information: Czech and Croatia will meet for the first time competitively, and Dario Srna returns from father's funeral, he is ready for the match. In the previous 13 matches between Spain and Turkey, Spain have 6W 4D and 3W for Turkey. What do you think, who is favorite on these matches, and can you recommend your tips for today?