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Sir Puntalot

Euro 2016 > Outright Betting

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At first sight, England and Portugal are the best outsider bets. Also like France too, feel 4.5 reckons some value. They usually do not disappoint while playing at home.
Portugal will depend on how well Ronaldo is and if Fernando Santos does play the best players, especially the new youngsters that are showing up more now, such as Danilo, João Mário and Rafa.

Edited by JuMeSyn

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Wales 80/1 Betfred

Quite a long shot of course but you never know with the likes of Gareth Bale in the side. They had a successful qualifying campaign including zero defeats to a good Belgium side. Not one I expect to come in but worth  a punt low stakes.

p.s can anyone explain each way in football to me, if I selected each way on this selection does it mean I would win even if Wales came 2nd?

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On 2 May 2016 at 03:47:43, janesill said:

I will still be cheering for team England in the upcoming euro 2016 but it seems as though Team Germany is the smarter pick. My favorite team is England but I would put my money on Germany. We can't let emotions get in the way. :)

Do you mean you are English? 

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Austria  look dark horses at 40/1. May be worth an each way bet. Many of the squads not looking strong. 

Don't think we are value. But think we are about right. Only really France Germany or Spain we should be scared to face. Everyone else has massive holes and I'd rate our strike force as being as good as any really. Massive defence issues. But you can say the same about all the teams below us in the betting such as Belgium with their injuries. Portugal with their aging squad. 

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Euro 2016 Betting Preview Part 1: Who will win?

The 2016 European Championship is only a matter of days away now. The opening match between host nation France and Romania will kick off this coming Friday evening at 8pm live from the Stade de France. It is set to be one of the most fiercely contested editions of the competition in its history with a record number of 24 teams participating. Just who will prevail victorious?

Selections

To Win Outright: France @ 4.33 with Paddy Power

To Win Outright E/W: Italy @ 19.00 with Coral

Full Article: http://punts.pl/AmGjLX

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On 13/04/2016, 17:10:19, recklessrookie said:

Wales 80/1 Betfred

Quite a long shot of course but you never know with the likes of Gareth Bale in the side. They had a successful qualifying campaign including zero defeats to a good Belgium side. Not one I expect to come in but worth  a punt low stakes.

p.s can anyone explain each way in football to me, if I selected each way on this selection does it mean I would win even if Wales came 2nd?

Recklessrookie, as a Welshman myself I can say that I think we will actually perform better against the stronger nations. Coleman has got our counter attacking play down to a fine art and it helped us draw 0-0 with Belgium out there and beat them at home. It also helped us beat Israel away and draw at home with a very good Bosnia-Herzegovina team. Unfortunately, when a team plays us and sits back we don't have a clue. I really can't see us beating Slovakia in the opening game. I think we will draw or lose. However, I think we could take something from both the England and Russia games. We owe Russia one for 2003 when they played a team full of players that failed drugs tests in the Euro 2014 Play-Off. One of those was Titov who played a key role in the winner. They should never have been allowed to qualify. As time has shown, it's clear drug cheating was systematic throughout Russian sports at that period so we still have bad blood about that.

By the way, each way works exactly the same as in horse racing. Your bet is doubled but it covers your team making the final and possibly even semi finals as well.

I think a few teams could be dark horses. Iceland and Austria are both good bets from that group. One of them at least should make the 2nd Round and once you're in the knock out rounds anything can happen. If Romania can keep their defence tight they will be hard to beat as well once they reach the knock out rounds. Their game with Switzerland will be crucial.

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Euro 2016 Betting Preview Part 2: The player markets

In this second part of our betting preview for the 2016 European Championship in France this summer we take a look at the player markets and which players are catching our attention in markets such as top scorer, most assists, and tournament MVP.

Selections

Top Goalscorer: Robert Lewandowski @ 17.00 with William Hill

Player of the Tournament: Paul Pogba @ 13.00 with BetVictor

Top Assists: Mesut Ozil @ 13.00 with Boylesports

Top Premier League Goalscorer: Harry Kane @ 9.00 with Ladbrokes

Full Article: http://punts.pl/mQ308U

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11 hours ago, JPee said:

Hey Harry,

where did you find this bet?

It's under Euro 2016/Outright/Euro 2016 Tournament Specials/Specials.

Not the easiest site to navigate, I grant you, but I've backed quite a few of these specials and their bets on various tournament records to be broken.

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The favourite has got to be France. They have one of the best squads in this tournament and with home advantage, they will be the hottest favourite to win.

 

Germany doesn't have a proper striker anymore other than the ageing Mario Gomez, and they seems to be weaker compared to 2 years ago when they win the world cup. Their qualifying campaign and friendlies leading up to this tournament hasn't been convincing. 

 

Spain seems to have lost a bit of spark without Xavi or Iniesta. Seems unable to break teams who really sit back to defend as demonstrated in their 0-1 friendly loss to lowly Georgia. They are still a good team but perhaps not this time.

 

Other than these three teams, I cannot see other teams winning this euro2016 unless there's a major upset. Belgium always failed to perform at the big stage, they have the players but just cannot seem to gel. England, as usual. Italy, cannot see where their goals are coming from. Portugal, one man team cannot win. 

 

For the dark horses, I fancy Poland as they have a talented squad with one of the best strikers leading their attack. They have shown that they can mix with the big boys by beating Germany convincingly in their qualifying campaign. At odds of 50, I believe it is a very good value for a punt on Poland. I would rate them at odds of 20-30 to be honest.

 

For shock winner bet, I'll go for Iceland. As shown in the qualifying campaign, they are mixing well with the big boys, winning against Netherlands home and away eventhough the Netherlands are not how they are used to be anymore. 

 

FAVOURITE PICK: FRANCE

DARK HORSE: POLAND

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On 7. 6. 2016, kevinjoh said:

Germany to win definitely. I can't see anyone else even close to Germans. Playing together for a long time, have experience in similar tournaments. 

Germany have been absolutey awful for 2 years now. 

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EURO 2016 Top Scorer

I think that the top goalscorer market for the tournament is interesting, with an extra round for the first time, but no third and fourth place playoff game, we do not have any recent history to compare, but I doubt too much will change and that it will really be Group stage goals that will clinch it for someone, but ideally you would like to make at least the quarter final stage and it is hard to see less than five goals being enough this time round. Given that we have already discussed Mandzukic and also like Croatia's chances of making the quarters and possible beyond, it is hard to leave him out of the equation at a big looking 33-1 , but I will pass, given that we are already involved heavily on him and Croatia.

Ronaldo is favourite at 9.0 and I have no problem with that at all and those odds could look a gift in two weeks time with group opponents Austria , Hungary and Iceland having very little big tournament experience between them in the last two decades. But I prefer the chances of another proven goalscorer who is available at twice the odds. That is Robert Lewandowski of Poland, who I have already touched upon as dark horses. They look in a tough group with Germany, Ukraine and Northern Ireland, but were very impressive in qualifying, look a team on the up and have a really offensive minded approach. They scored a whopping 33 goals in qualification and whilst 15 came against group whipping boys , 18 otherwise in a section which included Germany and defensively minded Republic of Ireland and Scotland is very worthy of note. They ended just a point shy of the world champions and scored three goals in the two h2h games with them. The look the second best team in Group C, will certainly not fear the Germans after running them so close in qualifying and finishing top 2 would see them face either a third placed team, or the runner up in the England group and both would be matches we would favour them to win. So a last eight place is very much on the cards. They open against the Irish and whilst Matchday 1 games in any tournament are usually tight, this is their best opportunity to run in a few goals and they will want the points with Germany up next, they finish against a usually defensive Ukraine team, but one who might be forced out of their usual approach by their need for points at that stage.

Lewandowski with 13 goals was the top striker in qualifying , six v Gibraltar with 7 in the other eight games, he was top scorer in Bundesliga with his highest ever tally of 30 goals with an even split of 15 before and 15 after the Christmas break, his total of 9 in the Champions League was his best total since Dortmund's run the final in 2012-13 and a better goals per minute rate than for that campaign. Poland have scored two or more goals in 12 of the last 16 games that the Bayern striker has played and if they play five games and I favour then to do so, he must have a good chance of scoring enough to take him very close in this market.

Robert Lewandowski to be top scorer in Euro 2016 17.0 general quote, bigger in several places
 

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On June 9, 2016 at 10:52:02 AM, roveruk said:

Germany have been absolutey awful for 2 years now. 

Well 2 years ago they have won World Cup, and it is basically the same team although Lahm retirement is a problem. They have not been that good during qualifications, but it is the tournament that counts. England have been good in last 2 years, but can not say that I believe that they will be good in France. We will see.

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There is 9k available on Betfair for Portugal to win Euro 2016 at 16.5. 

The Betfair Exchange at decent liquidity is one of the best predictors of true probability available to the layman in my opinion. By its nature, the smart money will dictate the expected price, but I think the actual price is often slightly distorted from this by 'punters' money. In light of this, I think Portugal at the above price are a good back to lay opportunity. 

The premise being three fold: 1) Both sides' last matches: Croatia beat Spain, Portugal conceded 3 to Hungary and drew. I think this will cause the first punter distortion in the price. They see the results and back Croatia match odds, pushing Portugal out from true price set by big/smart money. 2) If Portugal beat Croatia, it will be likely be in an entertaining game, based on what we've seen from both sides so far. I think this will attract money again and people will think 'Portugal are playing well now'. 3) Punters will not be looking a round ahead, and upon seeing Portugal playing Switzerland or Poland in the quarter final, I reckon the price will be pushed down even further than truth. 

I'm looking to lay before the quarter final for at least a 6/4 win (which is when they reach 6.6), which I think I will get should Portugal qualify - I'm basically trying to enhance the price on Portugal qualifying. 

Both sides are worthy of a back to lay punt on the outright - Croatia are -++ on the three distortion points - Portugal are +++, which is why I've taken their side. I think Croatia are good for their marginal favouritism in the match, but Portugal offer the best investment. The +++ and the greater price give more scope for a big % swing upon qualification.

I can offer no reason to back Portugal outright at fixed odds, this is just a play of the market. Points 2 and 3 apply to both teams and make the match an excellent opportunity. But it's point 1 that means if you take Croatia, you'll be getting a worse expected return than on Portugal.

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On 13/04/2016, 17:10:19, recklessrookie said:

Wales 80/1 Betfred

Quite a long shot of course but you never know with the likes of Gareth Bale in the side. They had a successful qualifying campaign including zero defeats to a good Belgium side. Not one I expect to come in but worth  a punt low stakes.

p.s can anyone explain each way in football to me, if I selected each way on this selection does it mean I would win even if Wales came 2nd?

 

Also took them at 100.00 after they lost 3-0 to Sweden before the tournament. Stuck £10 on them and now being offered £80 profit, now do i cash out or hold on for a potential big win?!

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