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Non-League April matches


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Hemel Hempstead v Gosport

I must admit my previews could become rather boring to read until the end of the season as I get the feeling I could be opposing the same three or four teams until the rest of the season. That however has been very profitable in the last couple of weeks and I believe it will continue to be profitable until the end of the season. To recap the Gosport story they have had all sorts of off the field issues where players weren't paid their wages and the club were put under a transfer embargo. That embargo lasted until after the transfer window closed which means they are down to the bare bones. They have 13 pros signed on and two of those are injured. They have lost their last four games and if you take out Hemel's 6-0 defeat to Ebbsfleet, then they are also facing a team in pretty good form at the moment. I can't believe the home side are nearly even money to win this game and that is a staggering price.
 
Weston-Super-Mare v Margate
It feels odd to think not that long ago I was backing Margate and thinking they might reach the play-offs. Things have turned sour there though and their chairman has said he is leaving and will stop funding them. That has lead to players leaving and manager Nikki Bull saying he won't be there next season. Indeed I expect hardly any of the players will still be there next season. They are also not totally safe from relegation, but their best player signed for Crystal Palace this week and they have lost 7 on the bounce now. Weston aren't in great form themselves as they have only picked up 4 points in their last six, but the win was against Ebbsfleet. You would hope the Weston players are more up for it than the Margate ones and they have to be backed.
 
Ilkeston v Blyth Spartans
How on earth Blyth aren't at least 1/4 to win this game I don't know. They are top of the Evo-Stik Northern Premier and face a team in Ilkeston which is full of youngsters. Indeed I saw one of their fans say the average of the team is 17! Bookies seem to have been very slow in reacting to Ilkeston's team and thus plenty of money has been made. I wouldn't put anyone of lumping on a Blyth win, but I think at bigger prices it is worth backing them on the ht/ft at 6/4 and also on the -1 and -2 handicaps.
 
Enfield v Grays
For some reason bookies seem to have caught up with the issues at Grays and Enfield are very short for this game. I think Enfield can clear the -2 handicap and although it is a little short at 7/5 I think it has to be taken.
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hi 

Addpea,I dont think it's the same teams as weeks go by as long as you provide us with precious information to make us win.You are giving the best and I really appreciate the immense efforts put every week though sometimes you are super busy.

Now let's go to the saturday matches.I fancy st albans,buxton,leiston

what's the nap?

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I have had a look at the other games as well and Stalybridge tempted me as Harrogate are in awful form at the moment. Had three teams in the National League on my shortlist, but didn't think any of them offer value so left them alone. The bets above look so good as well that I am more than happy to just stick with them. Hemel are the Naps although had more money on Blyth via the various bets.

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Gosport who of course only have 11 players from the first team available for them. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the fact they didn't play on Monday and Hemel did as that shouldn't be a factor. Hemel have had injuries for a while now and it hasn't affected them much so hopefully it won't today either. 

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Hyde v Blyth Spartans

When I saw on Twitter that Blyth had saved an Ilkeston penalty on Saturday I thought that was a scare and Blyth would kick on from there. It was anything but though and they continued to defend terribly. Ilkeston went 3 up and it looked like a shock result was on the cards. Blyth then woke up and ended up winning the game 4-3 in the 97th minute. Apparently Blyth didn't even play that well in the 2nd half and yet they still managed to score 3 goals which says plenty about Ilkeston. More on them shortly, but surely Blyth can't defend as badly as they did on Saturday two games running. Tonight they play a Hyde side who are in a right mess. They started off the season pretty well, but after October 26th everything went downhill. Since that date they have won just twice in the league and it is slightly surprising manager Gary Lowe lasted as long as he did and it seemed a little pointless sacking him so late in the season. Their man problem though is they have gone and hired Darren Kelly as manager. This is the man who has already been sacked twice this season. He managed nine games at Oldham before he got the push and managed just one more at Halifax before the chop. Halifax were shocking when he took over and they could not defend to save their lives. I think it said everything about how bad a manager he is that Halifax have done so well since he left and Jim Harvey took over. They have got to the final of the FA Trophy and he has given them a real chance of staying up which looked impossible when Kelly was sacked. It is amazing Hyde have turned to him and they duly lost 3-0 in his first game in charge on Saturday. Like I say surely Blyth can't defend as badly again and Hyde have kept just one clean sheet since October. Hopefully Blyth will win more comfortably than they did on Saturday.

 

Ilkeston v Whitby

Ilkeston played the best they have played for weeks on Saturday, but they still conceded four goals and they still lost the game. I think they could well have raised their game because they were playing the team at the top of the division and I struggle to think they will be able to repeat that effort this evening. Whitby are currently in the relegation zone, but are giving themselves a real chance of survival. They were unbeaten in four prior to losing 3-2 on Saturday and although I wouldn't want to go lumping in on them I am more than happy to continue to oppose the home side.

 

Kingstonian v Bognor Regis

Bognor have had a great season, but their FA Trophy run might well stop them from winning the league. That combined with postponed matches has given them a huge backlog of fixtures and they have played 7 games in the last two weeks! I watched them on Saturday when they played Dulwich and given how many games they have played I thought they put in a creditable performance. Having said that they also looked like a side who had played so many games, especially in defence and they made some really sloppy mistakes in the 2nd half. They now have to go to another side aiming for the play-offs just over 48 hours later and the tiredness is only going to get worse. Granted Kingstonian only picked up a point against relegated Lewes on Saturday, but prior to that they beat top of the table Hampton 4-1 and have been in good form. Bognor are still going for the title, but Kingstonian should be able to punish their tiredness.

 

Barrow v Braintree

My first bet in the National League for a couple of rounds of matches, but I think Barrow offer some real value here. Barrow are unbeaten in eight games now and they have only lost four games at home all season. Paul Cox has the basis of a good side and they might just be looking at a promotion bid next season. Braintree are hoping they can finish in the play-offs themselves, but their away form has been woeful in recent weeks. They haven't won in 7 on their travels and they have lost 4 of them. They have a small squad and it has been stretched in recent weeks and worryingly they have been defending poorly on their travels as that has been a strong point for them. This is a long trip for the part-time away side on a Tuesday night and that is also going to play into the home sides favour. Odds of 6/4 look a decent bet.

 

Blyth ht/ft 2pts

Whitby 2pts

Kingstonian 3pts

Barrow 3pts

Add Blyth to win for trebles and a 4-fold 

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Gosport v Bishops Stortford

Hemel may have only won 1-0 against Gosport last Saturday and the goal may have only been a penalty, but that scoreline doesn't really reflect their dominance over Gosport. It should have really been more and I can't understand why yet again the bookies seem to have paid no attention to the issues at Gosport. I thought after they lost again last weekend that the bookies might have caught on, but they haven't and we get to back their opponents at bigger than 2/1! Stortford are in decent form at the moment having only lost once in their last six and they had a good 3-0 win over Oxford City last weekend. Their away form does worry a little as they have only won once away in their last 6 games on the road, but that almost doesn't matter too much given the situation at Gosport and it looks a cracking bet.
 
Margate v Sutton and Grays v Needham
Margate and Grays are two more sides that I have been opposing of late and it looks worth doing their opponents in a double. Sutton may be deducted points at some stage, but as it stands they hold the upper hand in the National League South title race and it would be a massive shock if they lost at woeful Margate on Saturday. Bookies have seemingly cottoned onto the Grays situation and their opponents Needham are 4/7 even though they are in a relegation battle and 12 points behind Grays. They won in mid-week and given they still have something to play for they should be beating Grays. The double pays 6/4 with Marathon. I will not be taking on Ilkeston this week as they play another side in a mess in Hyde and if anything Ilkeston might well win that given their last two efforts have been much improved. I also had Welling and Wrexham on my short-list in the National League but the prices look about right to me.
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Gosport v Basingstoke

This game was meant to be played on Easter Monday when I was very keen on Basingstoke. I am not as strong on them tonight, but they have to be backed again. Basingstoke are going down and they blew a 2 goal lead on Saturday against Weston, but as we know Gosport are one of the worst teams in the division at the moment. We were unlucky not to collect on Bishops Stortford on Saturday as Gosport's keeper got man of the match which tells you all you need to know about how the game went. The away side are over 4/1 and that is too big.

Hemel Hempsted v St Albans

A local derby this and the bookies have certainly priced it up based on league positions rather than actual form. Since Ian Allinson took over as St Albans manager they have been on fire and have won six of their last eight matches. They played away at Maidenhead on Saturday and got a late winner against another team trying to get in the play-offs. That shows they have what it takes to win this game. Hemel are doing well enough themselves at the moment and are currently in the final play-off place. They also won with a late winner on Saturday. St Albans certainly aren't good things, but they certainly have a much better chance of odds of 6/1 suggest and with a bit of luck a 34/1 double might just be landed.

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Chelmsford v Gosport

Again I am leaving the National League alone this weekend as only Tranmere made any sort of appeal and the price seems about right. Instead it seems safer to stick mainly to the tried and tested teams to oppose in recent weeks. Granted Gosport got a draw against Bishops Stortford last week, but their keeper got man of the match so we were unlucky not to collect. They did beat Basingstoke on Tuesday, but they are bottom and although this game against Chelmsford will be much harder. The home side had won three on the bounce, before losing to Ebbsfleet last Saturday. They played well in that 3-1 defeat and they will fancy their chances to get back to winning ways here. I think they should be odds on so Marathon's 13/10 makes plenty of appeal.
 
Harrogate v Boston
The home side have been struggling to pick up wins for a while now and from looking good things to be in a play-off place they are looking over their shoulders. They have only won once in their last six although they did get a decent draw at Nuneaton in midweek. Boston are also trying to cement their play-off place and they have won three on the bounce now. They have a better chance than their odds suggest given Harrogate are struggling to win games and I think it is well worth taking the 23/10 on Boston.
 
Ilkeston v Rushall Olympic
The away sides form isn't great as they have only won once in their last six games, however their away form is good as they have only lost to Darlington on their travels in their last six. Ilkeston won a couple of games to make sure of their safety but they only beat sides below them in the table and Hyde are hopeless at the moment. They lost again on Tuesday night to Buxton and Rushall really should have too much for them. A price of 7/4 looks very tasty.
 
Treble
Bishop's Stortford let us down last week, but as I mention above they were unlucky and although I wouldn't want to go lumping on them at 4/7 to beat Margate they are worth sticking them in a treble. Margate were stuffed 4-0 by top of the table Sutton last week and only had 3 subs on the bench which suggests they are struggling for players. Grays lost again last week and they play champions elect Hampton this weekend. It would be one of the biggest shocks of the season if Hampton didn't win and they should be capable of putting a few pass them. It has been no surprise to see that Darren Kelly has had no effect on Hyde and they still continue to lose and concede goals for fun. Buxton should have no issues seeing them off this weekend. It could be worth looking at handicap markets for the later two teams but the treble pays 2/1 with Marathon which looks a fair bet.
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Hyde v Nantwich

I have no idea how the away side are odds against for this match on Monday night. Hyde didn't do that badly against Buxton on Saturday, but it was another defeat for Darren Kelly's men and they are now in the relegation zone and looking like they might be suffering their 3rd relegation on the bounce. Conceding only twice was an improvement as well because their previous four games had seen them let in three or four goals. Just to repeat the stat I put up about Hyde the other week, they have only won twice since October 26th. Nantwich will be very happy with their season having reached the semi-final of the FA Trophy and although they have had a very busy schedule because of that they have still been performing well. They have played 9 games since Easter Saturday, but they have only lost two of them and one of those was against top of the table Darlington. The held on for a draw against Salford on Saturday after going down to ten men early in the 2nd half. Now the one thing that does concern me is they would have had a hard game and they might be feeling the effects of that here. That is the one thing that is stopping me making them a max bet, because everything else is in their favour.

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10 hours ago, sap said:

well done.congrats, addpea.Do you think rushall can spring a surprise tonight against blyth?I fancy barwell and kingstonian.

Given they lost to Ilkeston on Saturday it isn't something I wouldbe backing. BE very careful on Kingstonian as well because they have played a lot of games lately and been struggling. They also have nothing to play for now.

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addpea whats with Eastleigh today. With win, they can jump in to the Play Off Spot and important match for there. Also Halifax must find maybe Balance in the sqaud!? Playing against Reglegation, but have at Weekend away game against strong Forest Green Rovers Side. Maybe some rotation here? Because maybe it´s easier to earn points against Forest Green Rovers because there safe in 2nd Place.

Edited by Neubs
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I doubt Halifax will be messing around with the squad tonight. They need points and it doesn't matter who they get points against. Forest Green may have 2nd place, but they have been in dreadful form so will be wanting to find some form ahead of the play-offs. Neither game will be easy. I want Eastleigh to win tonight as I backed them to finish top 5 at the start of the season and they still have an outside chance of finishing 3rd which would be huge for me.

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