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Hey, I'm finally back. Took much longer than expected, but data is stored much more nicely now and it will be easier for the future to add new things or to use it in other ways.

First, last bankroll update: 

Latest selections: -8.81 from 16 bets

Overall: +51.98 from 477 bets (Yield: +10.89%)

Upcoming selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
11/4/2016 19:00 F2 Nimes vs Clermont 2 4.50 3.83 0.17 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/4/2016 19:45 F1 Montpellier vs Marseille 1 2.80 2.40 0.17 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 8:50 AUS Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory 2 4.17 3.38 0.23 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 12:00 D2 Kaiserslautern vs Union Berlin 1 2.88 2.44 0.18 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 15:00 E0 Bournemouth vs Sunderland X2 2.43 1.97 0.23 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 15:00 E0 Burnley vs Crystal Palace 1 3.37 2.70 0.25 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 15:00 E0 West Ham vs Stoke City 1 2.08 1.89 0.10 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 15:00 E1 Aston Villa vs Blackburn X2 2.46 2.04 0.21 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 15:00 SC0 Kilmarnock vs Hamilton 2 2.76 2.31 0.19 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 15:00 SC2 Stranraer vs Queen's Park 2 4.33 3.52 0.23 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 15:00 SC3 Berwick vs Cowdenbeath 2 3.95 3.30 0.20 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 15:00 SC3 Clyde vs Elgin City 2 3.00 2.69 0.12 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 17:00 I1 Torino vs Cagliari X2 2.62 2.15 0.22 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 19:00 F1 Angers vs Lille 2 3.55 2.92 0.22 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 19:00 F1 Bordeaux vs Lorient 2 5.20 4.00 0.30 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/5/2016 19:45 SP1 Las Palmas vs Eibar 2 4.09 3.57 0.15 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/6/2016 12:00 E0 Arsenal vs Tottenham 1 2.00 1.78 0.12 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/6/2016 12:30 D2 VfB Stuttgart vs Arminia Bielefeld 2 5.66 4.16 0.36 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/6/2016 14:00 I1 Palermo vs AC Milan 1X 2.30 2.08 0.11 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/6/2016 14:00 I1 Sassuolo vs Atalanta 1 2.51 2.15 0.17 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/6/2016 15:15 SP1 Celta Vigo vs Valencia 1 2.33 2.07 0.13 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/6/2016 16:00 F1 Metz vs St Etienne 1 3.97 3.34 0.19 Pinnacle 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/6/2016 22:30 COL Cortulua vs Junior 1 3.34 2.89 0.16 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
11/7/2016 22:00 ARG Aldosivi vs Defensa y Justicia 1 3.36 2.51 0.34 Marathonbet 11/2/2016 20:05 1
Edited by allen29
Table had some issues
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Hello, it's been some time since my last post. So, in a nutshell, this thread is not dead yet. I've worked a lot on improving the data quality and the whole data acquisition process, improving th

Last selections: +2.36 pts from 28 bets Overall: +83.73 pts from 1256 bets (+6.67 % yield) Here is a spreadsheet with the table I use to track my bank. Somewhere along the way, 3 bets got lo

Bankroll Last selections +1.26 pts from 45 bets Overall: +43.79 pts from 379 bets (11.5% yield) Since new model: +50.66 pts from 131 bets (38.67% yield)   @arsenalfh Thanks. I

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Next selections: 

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
11/12/2016 15:00 E3 Luton vs Accrington 2 3.61 3.17 0.14 Pinnacle 11/8/2016 10:13 1
11/12/2016 15:00 SC1 Hibernian vs Falkirk 1 1.67 1.47 0.14 Marathonbet 11/8/2016 10:13 1
11/12/2016 15:00 E3 Colchester vs Leyton Orient 2 3.33 2.96 0.13 Marathonbet 11/8/2016 10:13 1
11/12/2016 15:00 SC3 Cowdenbeath vs Montrose 1 2.20 1.90 0.16 Marathonbet 11/8/2016 10:13 1
11/12/2016 15:00 E3 Blackpool vs Notts County 2 4.34 3.77 0.15 Pinnacle 11/8/2016 10:13 1
11/12/2016 15:00 SC2 Albion Rovers vs Stranraer 2 3.15 2.59 0.22 Marathonbet 11/8/2016 10:13 1
11/13/2016 11:00 SP2 Lugo vs Rayo Vallecano 2 3.33 2.80 0.19 Pinnacle 11/8/2016 10:13 1

 

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Bankroll

Latest selections: -1.47 from 7 bets

Overall: +44.65 from 508 bets (Yield: +8.79%)

Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
11/19/2016 15:00 E3 Leyton Orient vs Blackpool 1 3.02 2.74 0.10 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/19/2016 15:00 E3 Plymouth vs Grimsby 2 4.50 3.93 0.15 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/19/2016 15:00 E1 Cardiff vs Huddersfield 1 2.60 2.28 0.14 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/19/2016 15:00 E3 Morecambe vs Luton 1 4.57 4.06 0.13 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/19/2016 15:00 E3 Cheltenham vs Portsmouth 1 4.30 3.76 0.14 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/19/2016 19:00 F1 Toulouse vs Metz X2 2.75 2.50 0.10 Pinnacle 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/19/2016 23:00 ARG Huracan vs Racing Club 1 3.50 3.06 0.14 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/20/2016 16:00 E0 Middlesbrough vs Chelsea 1X 2.69 2.15 0.25 Pinnacle 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/20/2016 20:00 ARG Quilmes vs Aldosivi 2 5.10 3.28 0.55 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/21/2016 17:00 TUR Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor 2 4.83 3.39 0.42 Pinnacle 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/21/2016 19:30 F2 Brest vs Niort 2 5.00 4.02 0.24 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/21/2016 19:45 SP2 Leganes vs Osasuna 2 4.69 3.66 0.28 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/26/2016 11:00 RUS CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Kazan 1 1.95 1.68 0.16 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1

 

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Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
11/25/2016 19:00 F2 GFC Ajaccio vs Sochaux 2 4.15 3.57 0.16 Marathonbet 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/26/2016 11:00 RUS CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Kazan 1 1.95 1.68 0.16 Marathonbet 11/13/2016 23:24 1
11/26/2016 15:00 E1 Ipswich vs QPR 2 3.65 3.30 0.11 Pinnacle 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/26/2016 15:00 E2 Chesterfield vs Bristol Rovers 1 4.05 3.39 0.19 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/26/2016 15:00 E2 Walsall vs Southend 1 2.67 2.23 0.20 Pinnacle 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/26/2016 15:00 E3 Doncaster vs Leyton Orient 2 5.10 4.07 0.25 Pinnacle 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/26/2016 15:00 E3 Accrington vs Yeovil 1 2.12 1.84 0.15 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/26/2016 15:00 SC0 Ross County vs Hamilton 2 4.00 2.88 0.39 Marathonbet 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/26/2016 17:00 SP2 UCAM Murcia vs Numancia 1 2.28 2.06 0.11 Pinnacle 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/26/2016 17:30 E1 Rotherham vs Leeds 1 4.26 3.44 0.24 Pinnacle 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/26/2016 17:30 E1 Chelsea vs Tottenham X2 2.23 1.96 0.14 Pinnacle 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/26/2016 17:30 NED Vitesse vs Excelsior 2 AH +1.5 1.76 1.61 0.09 Marathonbet 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/26/2016 19:00 F1 Nantes vs Lille 2 3.60 3.20 0.13 Pinnacle 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/27/2016 15:00 SP2 Huesca vs Girona 1 2.97 2.49 0.19 Pinnacle 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/27/2016 19:00 SP2 Levante vs Rayo Vallecano 2 4.60 4.12 0.12 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/27/2016 20:00 ARG Aldosivi vs Velez Sarsfield 1 2.89 2.10 0.38 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/27/2016 21:30 ARG San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors 2 3.20 2.75 0.16 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/27/2016 23:00 ARG Racing Club vs Independiente 2 4.00 3.30 0.21 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/28/2016 19:15 D2 VfB Stuttgart vs Nurnberg 2 4.34 3.75 0.16 Marathonbet 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/28/2016 19:45 E1 Huddersfield vs Wigan 2 4.54 3.83 0.19 Pinnacle 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/28/2016 20:00 ARG Defensa y Justicia vs Patronato 1 2.15 1.92 0.12 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/30/2016 18:00 F1 Bastia vs Bordeaux 1 3.70 2.54 0.46 Marathonbet 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/30/2016 18:00 F1 St Etienne vs Marseille 1 2.47 2.17 0.14 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/30/2016 18:00 F1 Guingamp vs Nice 1 3.15 2.77 0.14 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
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Hi Allen. Very impressive results! Encouraging to see since I'm working on a similar project.

What method do you use to come up with your results? What I mean is, simple Poisson, Dixon-Coles method, Conway-Maxwell method, or something else? 
Also, why did you choose the method that you did? Is it because you believe it has the best predictive accuracy or maybe because it's the easiest to set up?

I created a Poisson-Elo model myself (much like the one at clubelo, except with extra parameters to account for lineup strength) but I'm not very happy with it so I'm looking for something more advanced.

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Hi Lennon.

First, I use an own variation of calculating expected goals that includes also information about the player quality, the assister's quality and the opposition goalkeeper quality. I tested against classic expected goals method and it is more predictive in this way. Classic XG will underestimate very strong teams.

Then for each played game I calculate the win expectation for each side based on the expected goals using a linear mixed-effects model. 

Next, I calculate historical averages for long-term and short-term (form) for each team and for each league. I also calculate some indexes that combine multiple statistics based on their predictive capability (more predictive stats are given higher weight).

When it comes to predicting the outcomes, I first predict the draw probability separately by averaging predictions from multiple models. I don't know exactly why, but for draws, it is more accurate when I do this compared to predicting all the 3 possible outcomes. Then I have several models that predict probabilities for the game outcome and adjust those according to the estimated draw probability. Very important step is to adjust for league factors, especially home advantage and frequency of draws.

It is purely predictive-accuracy driven. Implementation is super cumbersome and took a lot of time. Models used range from logistic regression to gradient boosting, support vector machines, random forest, from which I weight their predictions to calculate the final ones.

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That makes sense. The likes of Messi and Bale would obviously have better finishing rates than your average striker.

Wow, that does sound complex. Did you build your model in R, or something else? With zero programming experience I'm not sure if I should learn R or go with something simpler like Python. 

Have you thought about scraping more accurate xG data from the shot maps at whoscored and similar sites? Not even sure if that's possible to be honest but I'm sure it's a lot more difficult than scraping text.

Finally, when you were backtesting did you use Marathon odds? Reason I ask is because you gotta think that if you're successful it's only a matter of time before you get limited.

Personally I'd test my models vs. closing Pinny odds because being able to bet decent amounts at those Euro bookies isn't going to last forever.

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Bankroll

Latest selections: -0.02 from 20 selections

Overall: +52.31 from 540 bets (Yield: +9.69%)

Levants vs Rayo Vallecano was postponed

Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
11/30/2016 14:00 RUS FC Ural vs FC Rostov 2 2.65 2.32 0.14 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
11/30/2016 17:00 DEN FC Nordsjaelland vs Horsens 2 3.96 3.49 0.13 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
11/30/2016 18:00 F1 Bastia vs Bordeaux 1 3.70 2.54 0.46 Marathonbet 11/21/2016 15:11 1
11/30/2016 18:00 F1 St Etienne vs Marseille 1 2.47 2.17 0.14 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/30/2016 18:00 F1 Guingamp vs Nice 1 3.15 2.77 0.14 Marathonbet 11/23/2016 23:17 1
11/30/2016 19:30 OST Austria Wien vs Red Bull Salzburg 1 4.58 3.57 0.28 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/1/2016 15:00 RUS Krylia Sovetov Samara vs Spartak Moscow 1 4.5 3.55 0.27 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/2/2016 8:50 AUS Melbourne Victory vs Perth Glory X2 2.48 2.13 0.16 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/2/2016 19:00 NED Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen 2 4.46 3.92 0.14 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/2/2016 19:45 SC1 Dundee United vs Hibernian 2 2.75 2.47 0.11 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 0:15 ARG Quilmes vs Sarmiento de Junin 2 4.75 3.65 0.30 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 6:35 AUS Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers 2 1.94 1.74 0.11 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 12:00 SP1 Granada vs Sevilla 1X 2.17 1.88 0.15 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 14:30 D1 Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg 2X 2.81 2.17 0.29 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 15:00 E1 Blackburn vs Huddersfield 1 2.77 2.50 0.11 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 15:00 E1 Fulham vs Reading 2 3.87 3.27 0.18 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 15:00 SC0 Rangers vs Aberdeen 1 2.21 1.89 0.17 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 15:00 SC0 St. Johnstone vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle 2 4.10 3.48 0.18 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 15:00 SC1 Falkirk vs St. Mirren X2 2.76 2.34 0.18 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 15:00 SC2 Queen's Park vs Brechin 1 3.45 2.41 0.43 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 15:00 SC3 Cowdenbeath vs Clyde 1 3.30 2.72 0.21 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 15:15 SP1 Barcelona vs Real Madrid 2 4.12 3.15 0.31 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 17:30 D1 RB Leipzig vs Schalke 04 1 2.03 1.80 0.13 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 17:30 NED Go Ahead Eagles vs sc Heerenveen 1 4.19 3.20 0.31 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 19:00 SP2 Cadiz vs Real Zaragoza 2 3.72 3.20 0.16 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/3/2016 20:45 ARG Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield X2 1.96 1.78 0.10 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/4/2016 10:30 TUR Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor 2 3.22 2.75 0.17 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/4/2016 13:00 RUS Lokomotiv Moscow vs Terek Grozny 1 2.28 1.99 0.15 Marathonbet 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/4/2016 14:30 D1 SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hamburg SV 1 2.84 2.50 0.14 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/4/2016 16:00 TUR Kasimpasa S.K. vs Galatasaray 1 4.05 2.90 0.40 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/4/2016 16:30 D1 FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2 2.88 2.55 0.13 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/4/2016 17:30 SP1 Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna 2 4.17 3.75 0.11 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/4/2016 19:45 SP1 Valencia vs Malaga 2 4.72 3.59 0.31 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1
12/4/2016 20:00 CHI Deportes Iquique vs Universidad Catolica 2 2.77 2.45 0.13 Pinnacle 11/30/2016 10:03 1

@Lennon

It took me a while. Most complex part is acquiring the data and integrating it into one standardized format. Yeah, models were built with R and are saved on my pc. I'm not sure that python is simpler, it could be faster in terms of execution speed.

I thought about that when I was starting, but at the moment I wouldn't do it. I don't think it will make a big difference and I already have a lot of data in the current format and I'm happy with the results, I prefer improving on what I already have. Also, only a few leagues have this kind of data.

I didn't backtest againt one specific bookmaker, because it was impossible to find one that covered all my games. I was using closing odds from oddsportal. I took the best odds and then lowered them a bit to reflect more realistically what odds I could get in real life. The backtesting results were somewhat worse than the results at the moment, but still pretty good...my explanation is that closing odds are much harder to beat and when I bet now I select the bets few days in advance where I can better spot some mismatched odds.

Edited by allen29
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Next selections, and longest so far:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
12/8/2016 18:00 CHI Palestino vs Colo Colo X2 2.65 1.55 0.71 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/8/2016 21:00 CHI Audax Italiano vs Deportes Iquique 1 3.68 2.80 0.31 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 17:30 D2 FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Union Berlin 1 2.71 2.44 0.11 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 19:00 F2 GFC Ajaccio vs AC Ajaccio 1 2.22 1.97 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 19:00 F2 Troyes vs AJ Auxerre 1 1.91 1.71 0.12 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 19:00 F2 Tours vs Laval 2 3.54 3.22 0.10 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 19:00 SP2 Sevilla B vs Reus Deportiu 2 3.9 3.48 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 19:00 F2 Red Star vs Valenciennes 2 3.79 3.41 0.11 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 19:00 NED FC Groningen vs Roda JC X2 2.23 1.98 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 19:45 F1 Dijon FCO vs Marseille 1 3.1 2.70 0.15 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/9/2016 19:45 SC0 Partick Thistle vs Celtic 1 +1.5 2.31 1.98 0.17 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 6:35 AUS Wellington Phoenix FC vs Central Coast Mariners X2 2.33 2.08 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 14:30 D1 Hamburg SV vs FC Augsburg 2 3.44 2.96 0.16 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 14:30 D1 FC Cologne vs Borussia Dortmund 1X 2.44 2.01 0.21 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 SC2 Queen's Park vs Albion Rovers 1 2.53 2.11 0.20 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 E0 Burnley vs Bournemouth 1 3.62 3.20 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 SC2 Stranraer vs Livingston 1 4.5 3.04 0.48 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 SC1 St. Mirren vs Raith Rovers 1 3.34 2.90 0.15 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 SC0 Dundee vs Ross County 1 2.54 2.29 0.11 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 E1 Huddersfield vs Bristol City 2 3.55 3.11 0.14 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 SC0 Inverness Caledonian Thistle vs Hamilton 2 4.05 2.84 0.42 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 SC0 Motherwell vs Kilmarnock 2 4.04 3.42 0.18 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 SC1 Ayr United vs Dundee United 1X 2.32 1.99 0.17 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 15:00 E2 Peterborough vs Chesterfield X2 2.32 2.07 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 17:00 SP2 Huesca vs UCAM Murcia 1 2.31 2.01 0.15 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 17:15 SC2 Brechin vs East Fife 2 3.56 3.21 0.11 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 17:30 OST SV Mattersburg vs Admira Wacker 1 2.56 2.32 0.10 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 17:30 NED NEC Nijmegen vs ADO Den Haag 2 3.6 2.82 0.28 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 17:30 E1 Preston vs Blackburn 2 4.07 3.69 0.10 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 17:30 E0 Leicester City vs Manchester City 1X 2.22 1.84 0.20 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 18:45 NED sc Heerenveen vs Excelsior X2 2.92 2.19 0.34 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 19:00 F1 Nantes vs Caen 2 4.25 3.70 0.15 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/10/2016 20:00 ARG Talleres Cordoba vs Newell's Old Boys 1 2.39 2.12 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 12:00 DEN Randers FC vs Esbjerg X2 2.543815916 2.27 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 12:30 D2 SpVgg Greuther Furth vs St Pauli 2 3.88 3.35 0.16 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 14:00 I1 Palermo vs Chievo Verona 2 2.74 2.24 0.22 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 14:00 I1 Atalanta vs Udinese X2 2.22 1.98 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 16:00 TUR Galatasaray vs Gaziantepspor 2 +1.5 1.95 1.74 0.12 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 20:00 ARG River Plate vs Boca Juniors 1 2.91 2.48 0.17 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 22:00 ARG San Martin de San Juan vs Estudiantes La Plata 1 3.82 3.03 0.26 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 22:00 ARG Banfield vs Huracan 2 4.85 3.71 0.31 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 22:15 ARG Colon de Santa Fe vs Independiente 1 3.55 3.17 0.12 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/11/2016 23:00 ARG Rosario Central vs Lanus 1 4.35 2.72 0.60 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/12/2016 17:00 TUR Antalyaspor vs Fenerbahce 1X 2.27 1.94 0.17 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/12/2016 19:30 F2 Orleans vs Stade de Reims 1 2.97 2.64 0.12 Marathonbet 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/12/2016 19:45 SP1 Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid 1 4.73 2.94 0.61 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/14/2016 19:45 E0 Middlesbrough vs Liverpool 1X 2.51 2.21 0.13 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
12/14/2016 20:00 E0 Crystal Palace vs Manchester Utd 1 4.92 3.84 0.28 Pinnacle 12/8/2016 8:32 1
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I must commend your unconventional approach. Predicting value on odds at least 48hrs before game  kickoff works! I'm testing a system to predict draws in the current season of the Top five European leagues. I agree with you that Beating the Pinnacle closing line is next to impossible. As with any system, it takes a lot of guts to stick  to a predicted outcome. Your (Villarreal vs. Athletico Madrid ) punt was spot on!! So have many others. My approach incorporates market trends at least 24 hrs before kickoff. What's your view on market trends?

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Middlesbrough vs Liverpool and Crystal Palace vs Man Utd were both lost, so that makes it

Overall: +71.32 from 622 bets (Yield: +11.46%)

Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
12/16/2016 19:00 F2 Laval vs Amiens AC away 3.07 2.71 0.13 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/16/2016 19:00 F2 AC Ajaccio vs Nimes away 3.99 3.35 0.19 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/16/2016 19:00 F2 AJ Auxerre vs Valenciennes away 3.46 3.02 0.14 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/16/2016 19:30 D1 TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund home 4.40 3.75 0.17 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/16/2016 19:45 F1 Angers vs Nantes home 2.30 2.02 0.14 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/16/2016 19:45 SP1 Alaves vs Real Betis home 2.40 2.20 0.09 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/16/2016 19:45 SC0 Hamilton vs Rangers home or draw 2.47 2.10 0.18 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 6:35 AUS Wellington Phoenix FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers away 2.52 2.18 0.15 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 8:50 AUS Melbourne City FC vs Melbourne Victory away 3.06 2.73 0.12 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 11:00 AUS Perth Glory vs Sydney FC home 4.10 3.01 0.36 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 12:00 D2 Karlsruher SC vs TSV Eintracht Braunschweig home 3.66 2.85 0.29 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 12:00 SP1 Sporting Gijon vs Villarreal home 3.78 3.37 0.12 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 14:00 I1 Empoli vs Cagliari away 3.92 3.12 0.26 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 14:00 F2 Lens vs GFC Ajaccio away 4.55 3.91 0.16 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 14:30 D1 Werder Bremen vs FC Cologne home 2.70 2.43 0.11 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 14:30 D1 RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin home 1.69 1.53 0.11 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 14:30 D1 Schalke 04 vs SC Freiburg draw or away 2.30 2.03 0.13 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 SC2 Stenhousemuir vs Albion Rovers home 3.16 2.77 0.14 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 SC1 Dumbarton vs Falkirk home 4.15 3.36 0.24 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 SC3 Cowdenbeath vs Forfar Athletic home 3.60 2.77 0.30 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 E2 Gillingham vs MK Dons home 3.14 2.70 0.17 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 E2 Charlton vs Peterborough home 2.38 2.13 0.12 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 E3 Accrington vs Plymouth home 2.79 2.47 0.13 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 E3 Barnet vs Stevenage home 2.66 2.17 0.23 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 OST SV Josko Ried vs Sturm Graz home 3.68 3.23 0.14 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 SC1 St. Mirren vs Ayr United away 3.72 3.13 0.19 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 E3 Cambridge Utd vs Crewe away 4.50 3.70 0.22 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 SC1 Queen of the South vs Dunfermline away 3.81 3.24 0.18 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 SC3 Arbroath vs Elgin City away 2.78 2.53 0.10 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 E3 Exeter vs Mansfield away 3.47 3.19 0.09 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 SC2 East Fife vs Peterhead away 2.96 2.71 0.09 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 15:00 SC2 Brechin vs Stranraer away 2.79 2.50 0.12 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 16:00 TUR Kasimpasa S.K. vs Besiktas home or draw 2.70 2.03 0.33 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 17:30 SP1 Granada vs Real Sociedad home 3.92 3.15 0.24 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 17:30 E0 West Brom vs Manchester Utd home or draw 2.31 1.88 0.23 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/17/2016 20:00 ARG Sarmiento de Junin vs Aldosivi away 3.82 3.44 0.11 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 11:30 I1 Sassuolo vs Internazionale home 3.94 3.19 0.23 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 12:00 E1 QPR vs Aston Villa home 3.60 3.18 0.13 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 12:30 D2 FC Wurzburger Kickers vs VfB Stuttgart home 3.81 3.40 0.12 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 13:30 NED FC Groningen vs Go Ahead Eagles draw or away 2.73 2.25 0.21 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 14:00 I1 US Pescara vs Bologna home 2.48 2.17 0.14 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 15:30 OST SCR Altach vs Rapid Wien away 2.67 2.21 0.21 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 16:00 TUR Osmanlispor vs Galatasaray home 2.75 2.38 0.16 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 17:30 SP1 Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna draw or away 2.65 2.17 0.22 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 19:45 I1 Lazio vs Fiorentina away 4.00 3.46 0.16 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 19:45 I1 Genoa vs Palermo draw or away 2.65 2.27 0.17 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 20:00 ARG Belgrano de Cordoba vs Rosario Central home 2.50 2.27 0.10 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 20:00 ARG Lanus vs San Lorenzo home 2.22 1.96 0.13 Matchbook 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/18/2016 22:30 ARG Newell's Old Boys vs San Martin de San Juan draw or away 2.27 1.86 0.22 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/19/2016 17:00 TUR Bursaspor vs Antalyaspor away 3.96 3.54 0.12 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/19/2016 19:30 F2 Stade de Reims vs Troyes home 2.20 2.01 0.09 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/20/2016 19:00 D1 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz away 3.80 3.37 0.13 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:00 D1 FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen home 3.16 2.86 0.10 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:00 D1 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Freiburg away 3.50 2.88 0.21 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:00 D1 Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig away +1.5 1.99 1.75 0.14 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Lille vs Stade Rennes home 2.20 1.92 0.14 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Metz vs Guingamp away 2.96 2.64 0.12 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Nantes vs Montpellier away 3.36 2.95 0.14 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Dijon FCO vs Toulouse away 3.25 2.74 0.18 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/22/2016 19:45 I1 Fiorentina vs Napoli home 3.44 2.75 0.25 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/22/2016 19:45 I1 Torino vs Genoa away 4.55 3.79 0.20 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
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Update: Bankroll

Latest selection: -10.2 from 53 bets

Overall: +61.12 from 675 bets (Yield: +9.05%)

Christmas selections (including the ones that were not decided since last post):

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
12/21/2016 19:00 D1 FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen home 3.16 2.86 0.10 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:00 D1 FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SC Freiburg away 3.50 2.88 0.21 Pinnacle 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:00 D1 Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig away +1.5 1.99 1.75 0.14 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Lille vs Stade Rennes home 2.20 1.92 0.14 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Metz vs Guingamp away 2.96 2.64 0.12 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Nantes vs Montpellier away 3.36 2.95 0.14 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Dijon FCO vs Toulouse away 3.25 2.74 0.18 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/22/2016 19:45 I1 Fiorentina vs Napoli home 3.44 2.75 0.25 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/22/2016 19:45 I1 Torino vs Genoa away 4.55 3.79 0.20 Marathon 12/15/2016 20:08:26 PM 1
12/21/2016 19:00 D1 TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen draw or away 2.55 2.23 0.14 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Bastia vs Marseille home 3.70 2.80 0.32 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 Lyon vs Angers away +1.5 1.87 1.71 0.09 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/21/2016 19:50 F1 AS Monaco vs Caen away +1.5 2.25 2.05 0.10 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/22/2016 19:45 I1 Palermo vs US Pescara away 3.86 2.79 0.38 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/22/2016 19:45 I1 AS Roma vs Chievo Verona away +1.5 1.94 1.77 0.10 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/23/2016 19:45 SC0 Kilmarnock vs St. Johnstone home 3.80 3.32 0.15 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/23/2016 19:45 SC0 Ross County vs Partick Thistle away 3.43 2.91 0.18 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/24/2016 13:00 SC2 Stranraer vs Airdrieonians home 2.55 2.14 0.19 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/24/2016 13:00 SC3 Cowdenbeath vs Arbroath home 3.30 2.50 0.32 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/24/2016 13:00 SC2 Albion Rovers vs East Fife away 3.50 2.83 0.24 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/24/2016 13:00 SC3 Montrose vs Stirling away 3.04 2.49 0.22 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/24/2016 14:00 SC2 Livingston vs Queen's Park draw or away 3.15 2.67 0.18 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 8:50 AUS Adelaide United vs Sydney FC home 3.64 2.98 0.22 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 13:00 E3 Leyton Orient vs Crawley Town away 3.80 3.42 0.11 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E3 Crewe vs Carlisle home 3.96 3.56 0.11 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 SC1 Dunfermline vs Falkirk home 2.90 2.62 0.11 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E0 Burnley vs Middlesbrough home 3.16 2.59 0.22 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E2 Millwall vs Swindon home 1.79 1.62 0.11 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E3 Cheltenham vs Barnet away 3.50 2.93 0.20 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E1 Barnsley vs Blackburn away 3.50 3.12 0.12 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E1 Wolves vs Bristol City away 3.26 2.96 0.10 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E3 Stevenage vs Cambridge Utd away 3.02 2.24 0.35 Matchbook 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E3 Notts County vs Doncaster away 2.01 1.82 0.10 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E1 Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest away 5.19 3.87 0.34 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E3 Plymouth vs Wycombe away 3.81 3.17 0.20 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 SC3 Forfar Athletic vs Clyde draw or away 2.12 1.90 0.12 Marathon 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 SC2 Peterhead vs Stenhousemuir draw or away 2.39 2.05 0.17 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1
12/26/2016 15:00 E0 Manchester Utd vs Sunderland away +1.5 2.37 2.12 0.12 Pinnacle 12/21/2016 12:09 1

 

 

Edited by allen29
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Not the best period recently, but the more conservative bets are doing fine.

Bankroll

Latest selection: -5.25 from 37 bets

Overall: +55.87 from 712 bets (Yield: +7.85%)

Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp
12/27/2016 15:00 SC0 Aberdeen vs Hamilton away +1.5 1.85 1.69 0.09 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/28/2016 8:50 AUS Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners away +1.5 2.31 2.08 0.11 Pinnacle 12/27/2016 11:07
12/28/2016 19:45 SC0 St. Johnstone vs Rangers home 4.10 3.49 0.17 Matchbook 12/27/2016 11:07
12/28/2016 19:45 E0 Southampton vs Tottenham home 2.97 2.58 0.15 Matchbook 12/27/2016 11:07
12/28/2016 19:45 SC0 Partick Thistle vs Dundee away 4.00 3.12 0.28 Matchbook 12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 9:50 AUS Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar away 5.07 3.26 0.56 Pinnacle 12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 19:45 E2 Millwall vs Gillingham home 1.85 1.65 0.12 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 19:45 E2 Rochdale vs Shrewsbury home 1.67 1.47 0.14 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 19:45 E2 Port Vale vs Chesterfield away 3.62 2.83 0.28 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/30/2016 20:45 E3 Hartlepool vs Morecambe away 3.75 3.32 0.13 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 12:30 SC1 Falkirk vs Hibernian home 3.90 3.39 0.15 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 13:00 E2 Southend vs Charlton home 2.50 2.04 0.22 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 13:15 SC0 Rangers vs Celtic home 4.20 3.51 0.20 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 14:00 SC3 Stirling vs Cowdenbeath away 3.45 2.94 0.17 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00 E2 Bristol Rovers vs AFC Wimbledon home 2.30 1.97 0.17 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00 E2 Fleetwood vs Oldham home 2.00 1.76 0.13 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00 E0 Leicester City vs West Ham home 2.20 1.95 0.13 Matchbook 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00 E1 Wolves vs QPR away 4.35 3.57 0.22 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00 E1 Preston vs Sheffield Wednesday away 2.75 2.26 0.22 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00 E0 Manchester Utd vs Middlesbrough away +1.5 2.08 1.87 0.11 Pinnacle 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 15:00 E0 Chelsea vs Stoke City away +1.5 2.13 1.93 0.10 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 16:00 E3 Grimsby vs Blackpool home 3.18 2.84 0.12 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 16:00 E3 Stevenage vs Colchester away 3.14 2.70 0.16 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 16:00 E3 Newport vs Exeter away 2.80 2.30 0.22 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 16:00 E3 Luton vs Barnet draw or away 2.25 1.95 0.16 bet365 12/27/2016 11:07
12/31/2016 17:30 E0 Liverpool vs Manchester City home 2.50 2.17 0.15 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
1/1/2017 7:35 AUS Wellington Phoenix FC vs Adelaide United away 3.10 2.55 0.21 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
1/2/2017 15:00 SC3 Elgin City vs Forfar Athletic home 2.40 2.17 0.11 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07
1/2/2017 15:00 SC1 Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline away 3.60 2.86 0.26 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07

@Heatkiger: It's from opta clasic data feed text commentary. Some sites that display this are: bbc, espn, onefootball. After this, I use some text rules and regex to extract information from text such as the type of event, team, location, body part, assist method, number of players on the pitch etc. Using the shooting events I have built my expected goals model. Now, for every new game, I can extract the shooting events and apply the model, get expected goal value for each shot, then sum them up for each game and each team.

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14 hours ago, allen29 said:

It's from opta clasic data feed text commentary. Some sites that display this are: bbc, espn, onefootball. After this, I use some text rules and regex to extract information from text such as the type of event, team, location, body part, assist method, number of players on the pitch etc. Using the shooting events I have built my expected goals model. Now, for every new game, I can extract the shooting events and apply the model, get expected goal value for each shot, then sum them up for each game and each team.

It must have required some serious programming effort to get this scraping right. I myself have finally managed to automate scraping of simpler statistics (goals, shots and shots on target). How would you compare the statistical significance of these three compared to your xG model? I'm asking because I'm considering investing some time in the summer in order to achieve the same data gathering as you have.

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Finally some profit.

Bankroll

Latest selection: +3.69 from 27 bets

Overall: +59.56 from 739 bets (Yield: +8.06%)

Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
1/2/2017 15:00 SC3 Elgin City vs Forfar Athletic home 2.40 2.17 0.11 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07 1
1/2/2017 15:00 SC1 Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline away 3.60 2.86 0.26 Marathon 12/27/2016 11:07 1
1/2/2017 15:00 E3 Exeter vs Leyton Orient away 4.20 3.52 0.19 Matchbook 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/2/2017 15:00 E2 Gillingham vs Oxford United away 2.51 2.25 0.12 Marathon 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/2/2017 15:00 E0 Everton vs Southampton away 3.62 2.79 0.30 Matchbook 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/2/2017 15:00 E0 Sunderland vs Liverpool home +1.5 1.92 1.73 0.11 Marathon 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/2/2017 15:00 E0 Leeds vs Rotherham draw or away 2.87 2.42 0.19 Marathon 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/2/2017 17:15 E0 West Ham vs Manchester Utd draw or away 2.66 1.97 0.35 Pinnacle 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/3/2017 20:00 E0 Crystal Palace vs Swansea draw or away 2.10 1.87 0.12 Pinnacle 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/3/2017 20:00 E0 Stoke City vs Watford draw or away 2.16 1.90 0.14 Matchbook 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/5/2017 10:00 AUS Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix FC home 2.25 1.95 0.15 Marathon 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/6/2017 8:50 AUS Melbourne City FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers away 4.55 3.60 0.26 Marathon 1/2/2017 11:04 1
1/6/2017 16:00 SP1 Almeria vs Getafe home 2.78 2.48 0.12 Marathon 1/2/2017 11:04 1

@Heatkiger There are several ways to compare the the added benefit due to the the new stats added. For me, they add benefit if they have a better predictive power. For expected goals, or expected points or wins you can do the following:

-Build two models (I would chose something simple, like logistic regression for this task): one using widely available stats (like Goals, Goals Ratio, % of Wins, Points per game) and the other one using the stats you're interested in (Expected Goals, Expected Points..etc). You can use season averages of these stats or a rolling window of past x games. Then evaluate the accuracy of these models in predicting the result you're interested and compare the results. 

-Build a single model using a combination of the simple and more advanced metrics. For example a logistic regression containing goals for, expected goals for, goals against, expected goals against. Then compare the p-values in the regression output and see for which metrics the p-values are smaller.

-If you're interested in evaluating each metric by itself, you can take a full season and divide it into 2 parts. Then compute averages for the metrics you're interested in for each team in both halves. Finally, measure the correlation between the metric in the first half and the same metric in the second half. A higher correlation indicates a more predictive metric. I would compare very similar metrics with this method, like: goals vs expected goals, points vs expected points. 

-If you're using a more complex machine learning algorithm, most models and their packages come with a feature selection algorithm that tries to evaluate the performance of each predictor. You can then inspect the output of the model to see which are the most important predictors. I would try more than 1 model and the compare what each model sees as important predictors.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Bankroll

Latest selections: -0.62 from 13 bets (correction: West Ham vs Manchester Utd was intended to be a home or draw bet, there was no odds like that on draw or away, of course)

Overall: +59.09 from 752 bets (Yield: +7.86%)

Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
1/14/2017 8:50 AUS Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers draw or away 2.40 2.00 0.20 Marathon 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 10:30 TUR Kardemir Karabuk vs Akhisar Belediyespor home 2.50 2.15 0.16 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 13:00 E3 Notts County vs Mansfield home 3.31 2.86 0.16 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 13:00 TUR Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kayserispor draw or away 2.90 2.57 0.13 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 15:00 E3 Cambridge Utd vs Blackpool home 2.73 2.40 0.14 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 15:00 E0 West Ham vs Crystal Palace home 2.47 2.09 0.18 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 15:00 E1 Sheffield Wednesday vs Huddersfield home 2.25 1.94 0.16 bet365 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 15:00 E0 Watford vs Middlesbrough home 2.59 2.32 0.12 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 15:00 E2 Bury vs Peterborough home 3.84 3.43 0.12 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 15:00 E3 Plymouth vs Stevenage home 2.08 1.85 0.13 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 15:00 SC1 Falkirk vs Ayr United draw or away 2.24 2.05 0.09 Marathon 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 16:00 TUR Konyaspor vs Galatasaray away 2.88 2.48 0.16 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 17:00 I1 Crotone vs Bologna home 3.08 2.56 0.20 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 17:30 NED sc Heerenveen vs ADO Den Haag draw or away 2.78 2.01 0.38 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/14/2017 19:00 F1 Stade Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain home or draw 2.71 2.33 0.16 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/15/2017 6:00 AUS Newcastle Jets vs Perth Glory away 3.02 2.71 0.11 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/15/2017 13:30 NED Vitesse vs FC Twente home 2.10 1.88 0.12 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/15/2017 13:30 NED PEC Zwolle vs Ajax home +1.5 1.93 1.77 0.09 Marathon 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/15/2017 14:00 I1 Sampdoria vs Empoli draw or away 2.21 1.98 0.11 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/15/2017 15:45 NED Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen draw or away 2.07 1.83 0.13 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/16/2017 19:45 I1 Torino vs AC Milan away 3.32 2.61 0.27 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/17/2017 6:45 AUS Wellington Phoenix FC vs Melbourne Victory away 2.42 2.14 0.13 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/20/2017 8:50 AUS Sydney FC vs Adelaide United draw or away 2.80 2.17 0.29 bet365 1/13/2017 22:26 1
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Bankroll

Latest selections: +5.54 pts from 22 bets

Overall: +64.63 pts from 774 bets (Yield: +8.35%)

Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp Stake
1/20/2017 8:50 AUS Sydney FC vs Adelaide United draw or away 2.56 2.18 0.18 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/20/2017 19:00 F2 Sochaux vs Clermont home 2.21 1.98 0.11 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/20/2017 19:00 F2 Laval vs Troyes away 3.32 2.81 0.18 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/20/2017 19:00 NED FC Twente vs Heracles draw or away 2.24 2.04 0.10 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/20/2017 19:45 E2 Port Vale vs Bury home 2.63 2.37 0.11 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 12:00 SP1 Espanyol vs Granada draw or away 2.55 2.30 0.11 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 14:00 F2 Lens vs Nimes draw or away 2.22 2.06 0.08 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 14:30 D1 SV Darmstadt 98 vs Borussia Monchengladbach home or draw 2.01 1.88 0.07 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 14:30 D1 VfL Wolfsburg vs Hamburg SV away 4.41 3.83 0.15 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 14:30 D1 Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund home or draw 2.61 2.32 0.13 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 SC3 Edinburgh City vs Forfar Athletic home 4.50 3.65 0.23 Marathon 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E2 Bradford vs Millwall home 2.36 2.08 0.13 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E2 MK Dons vs Northampton home 2.06 1.82 0.13 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E3 Hartlepool vs Stevenage home 3.22 2.62 0.23 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E1 Blackburn vs Birmingham away 3.27 2.89 0.13 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E1 Wigan vs Brentford away 2.95 2.65 0.11 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E1 Nottingham Forest vs Bristol City away 2.80 2.51 0.12 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E2 Walsall vs Bristol Rovers away 2.72 2.14 0.27 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E1 Cardiff vs Burton Albion away 4.82 3.96 0.22 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 SC3 Montrose vs Cowdenbeath away 3.00 2.52 0.19 bet365 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E2 Coventry vs Fleetwood away 2.74 2.46 0.11 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E3 Leyton Orient vs Morecambe away 3.72 3.35 0.11 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E0 Bournemouth vs Watford draw or away 2.12 1.97 0.08 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E0 Middlesbrough vs West Ham away 3.33 2.97 0.12 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E0 Stoke City vs Manchester Utd home or draw 2.48 2.05 0.21 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 15:00 E0 West Brom vs Sunderland draw or away 2.28 2.04 0.12 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 17:30 E1 Barnsley vs Leeds home 3.37 3.05 0.11 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 19:00 F1 Bastia vs Nice home 3.47 2.90 0.20 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 19:00 F1 Guingamp vs Stade Rennes home 2.44 2.18 0.12 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/21/2017 19:00 F1 Bordeaux vs Toulouse away 3.96 3.47 0.14 Matchbook 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/22/2017 11:30 NED FC Utrecht vs Ajax home or draw 2.18 1.91 0.14 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/22/2017 15:00 I1 Bologna vs Torino home 3.24 2.70 0.20 Marathon 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/22/2017 15:00 I1 Empoli vs Udinese away 3.32 2.93 0.13 Marathon 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/22/2017 15:00 I1 Palermo vs Internazionale home or draw 2.55 2.32 0.10 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/22/2017 15:00 I1 Genoa vs Crotone draw or away 2.58 2.35 0.10 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/22/2017 15:15 SP1 Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid home 4.28 2.90 0.48 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/22/2017 16:30 D1 Mainz vs FC Cologne home 2.61 2.34 0.12 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
1/22/2017 17:30 SP1 Real Betis vs Sporting Gijon draw or away 2.29 2.03 0.13 Pinnacle 1/13/2017 22:26 1
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More selections. In a big rush, didn't have time to include viz for these ones. 

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp
1/21/2017 10:30 TUR Akhisar Belediyespor vs Kayserispor away 4.19 3.76 0.11 Pinnacle 1/18/2017 4:11
1/21/2017 15:00 E1 Norwich City vs Wolves home 2.12 1.92 0.11 Pinnacle 1/18/2017 4:11
1/21/2017 16:00 TUR Kardemir Karabuk vs Galatasaray home or draw 1.87 1.69 0.11 Pinnacle 1/18/2017 4:11
1/21/2017 16:00 TUR Bursaspor vs Adanaspor draw or away 2.75 2.29 0.20 bet365 1/18/2017 4:11
1/21/2017 19:00 SP2 UCAM Murcia vs Real Zaragoza home 2.48 2.21 0.12 Marathon 1/18/2017 4:11
1/22/2017 11:00 SP1 Osasuna vs Sevilla home or draw 2.71 2.41 0.12 Pinnacle 1/18/2017 4:11
1/22/2017 13:00 TUR Kasimpasa S.K. vs Trabzonspor home 2.92 2.17 0.35 Marathon 1/18/2017 4:11
1/23/2017 17:00 TUR Alanyaspor vs Besiktas home or draw 2.75 2.11 0.30 Pinnacle 1/18/2017 4:11
1/23/2017 19:45 FRA Brest vs Red Star draw or away 2.73 2.13 0.28 Marathon 1/18/2017 4:11

 

 

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Next games:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp
1/27/2017 18:30 D2 Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum away 4.45 3.56 0.25 Marathon 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/27/2017 19:00 F2 Nimes vs Strasbourg home 2.80 2.46 0.14 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/27/2017 19:00 SP2 Elche vs Girona away 2.59 2.33 0.11 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/27/2017 19:00 NED Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam away 4.14 3.43 0.21 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/27/2017 19:45 SP1 Osasuna vs Malaga home 3.18 2.75 0.16 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 12:00 SP1 Villarreal vs Granada away +1.5 1.83 1.68 0.09 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 12:30 E2 Bristol Rovers vs Swindon home 1.78 1.59 0.12 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 13:00 D2 FC Wurzburger Kickers vs TSV Eintracht Braunschweig home 2.73 2.43 0.12 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 14:00 I1 Cagliari vs Bologna home 2.57 2.34 0.10 Marathon 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 14:00 I1 Fiorentina vs Genoa draw or away 2.39 2.04 0.17 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 14:30 D1 RB Leipzig vs TSG Hoffenheim home 1.77 1.56 0.13 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 SC2 Stenhousemuir vs Airdrieonians home 3.53 3.08 0.15 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 SC1 Dunfermline vs Dundee United home 3.32 2.91 0.14 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 E2 Fleetwood vs Southend home 2.26 2.03 0.12 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 SC2 Albion Rovers vs Alloa away 2.28 2.05 0.11 Marathon 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 E1 QPR vs Burton Albion away 3.74 2.79 0.34 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 E1 Reading vs Cardiff away 3.50 3.07 0.14 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 E3 Notts County vs Crawley Town away 3.26 2.54 0.28 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 E3 Stevenage vs Grimsby away 3.04 2.56 0.19 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 E3 Newport vs Hartlepool away 3.10 2.78 0.12 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 E1 Preston vs Ipswich away 4.49 3.56 0.26 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 SC2 Peterhead vs Queen's Park away 4.06 2.98 0.36 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 E2 Bury vs Walsall away 3.06 2.72 0.12 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 SC1 Queen of the South vs Hibernian home or draw 2.49 2.06 0.21 Marathon 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:00 SC2 Livingston vs Brechin draw or away 2.72 2.45 0.11 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 15:15 SP1 Alaves vs Atletico Madrid home or draw 2.45 2.17 0.13 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 17:00 SP2 Mirandes vs Reus Deportiu away 3.10 2.79 0.11 Marathon 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 18:45 NED Roda JC vs Excelsior away 3.82 3.11 0.23 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/28/2017 20:00 F1 Toulouse vs St Etienne home 2.56 2.31 0.11 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 13:00 TUR Trabzonspor vs Gaziantepspor draw or away 2.76 2.35 0.17 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 13:30 D2 Nurnberg vs Dresden home 2.52 2.12 0.19 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 14:00 I1 Sassuolo vs Juventus home or draw 2.78 2.29 0.22 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 14:30 D1 SC Freiburg vs Hertha Berlin home 2.52 2.24 0.13 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/29/2017 17:30 SP1 Athletic Bilbao vs Sporting Gijon draw or away 3.45 2.93 0.18 Marathon 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/30/2017 17:00 TUR Adanaspor vs Kasimpasa S.K. away 2.83 2.19 0.29 Marathon 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/31/2017 19:45 E0 Middlesbrough vs West Brom home 2.64 2.28 0.16 Pinnacle 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/31/2017 19:45 E0 Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace away 3.96 3.52 0.12 Matchbook 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/31/2017 19:45 E0 Swansea vs Southampton away 2.38 1.94 0.23 Marathon 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM
1/31/2017 19:45 E0 Sunderland vs Tottenham home or draw 3.40 2.31 0.47 bet365 1/25/2017 17:51:00 PM

 

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Next selections:

Date League Match Side Bmk.odds My.odds Value Bookmaker Timestamp
2/4/2017 12:00 D2 FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Nurnberg away 3.79 3.04 0.25 Matchbook 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 12:30 E0 Chelsea vs Arsenal draw or away 1.93 1.75 0.10 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 14:00 F2 Brest vs Sochaux away 3.92 3.54 0.11 Matchbook 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 SC2 Alloa vs Livingston home 3.25 2.84 0.14 Marathon 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E3 Grimsby vs Luton home 3.20 2.86 0.12 Matchbook 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E3 Barnet vs Mansfield home 2.88 2.52 0.14 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E1 Cardiff vs Norwich City home 3.01 2.70 0.11 Matchbook 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E3 Wycombe vs Portsmouth home 3.69 3.32 0.11 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E1 Barnsley vs Preston home 2.86 2.53 0.13 Matchbook 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E1 Ipswich vs Reading home 3.17 2.57 0.23 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E0 West Brom vs Stoke City home 2.39 2.14 0.12 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E1 Burton Albion vs Wolves home 3.50 2.95 0.19 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E3 Hartlepool vs Yeovil home 3.00 2.71 0.11 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 SC3 Edinburgh City vs Clyde away 2.65 2.19 0.21 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E2 Charlton vs Fleetwood away 3.24 2.95 0.10 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 SC0 Hamilton vs Kilmarnock away 3.52 3.23 0.09 Matchbook 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E3 Cambridge Utd vs Plymouth away 3.14 2.69 0.17 Pinnacle 2/4/2017 10:33
2/4/2017 15:00 E0 Everton vs Bournemouth draw or away