ipredict - Football statistical predictions

[allen29]

Bankroll update, another profitable week.

+ 6.61 pts from the last update

Overall: 28.41 pts from 294 bets. Yield: 9.7%

Since new model: 35.1 pts from 47 bets (Yield: 74.7%...looks, crazy, but it will go down as the size increases)

@wizzo1970 Thanks, glad it's easy to visualize.

 

[allen29]

Next selections. English lower leagues should have started in Round 7, but I like these games in Round 6.

You may notice a different chart in the English lower leagues. That's because the level of detail of text commentary is a bit more abstract and the assist method and assister's name are very rarely provided, so I had to replace it with something else. Players above their the diagonal are overperforming their goal expectation and players above the diagonal are underperforming.

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
9/1/2016	MLS	New York City FC vs DC United	X2	2	1.91	0.05	Marathonbet	8/29/2016 23:26	1
9/3/2016	E3	Carlisle vs Accrington	X2	1.84	1.56	0.18	Pinnacle	8/29/2016 23:26	1
9/3/2016	E2	Millwall vs Bradford	2	3.8	2.87	0.32	Pinnacle	8/29/2016 23:26	1
9/3/2016	E3	Newport vs Barnet	2	3.02	2.64	0.14	Pinnacle	8/29/2016 23:26	1
9/3/2016	E3	Notts County vs Grimsby	2	3.02	2.47	0.22	Marathonbet	8/29/2016 23:26	1
9/4/2016	MLS	LA Galaxy vs Columbus Crew SC	X2	2.47	1.98	0.25	Marathonbet	8/29/2016 23:26	1
9/4/2016	BRA	Botafogo vs Gremio	1	2.82	2.57	0.10	Pinnacle	8/29/2016 23:26	1
9/4/2016	MLS	Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union	2	3.45	3.12	0.11	Marathonbet	8/29/2016 23:26	1

[allen29]

Looks like the honeymoon is over. 

Bankroll

Overall: 26.07 pts from 301 bets. Yield: 8.7%

-2.34 pts from the last update

* Newport vs Barnet was voided as the game was "abandoned due to unsuitable ground"

Next selections coming soon!

[allen29]

Longest post so far and new leagues are coming in, let's see how it goes.

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
9/7/2016	BRA	Botafogo vs Fluminense FC	1	2.66	2.39	0.11	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/8/2016	BRA	Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo	1	1.95	1.76	0.11	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/8/2016	MLS	Real Salt Lake vs LA Galaxy	1	2.5	2.18	0.15	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/9/2016	BRA	America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro	1X	1.91	1.69	0.13	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/9/2016	F2	AJ Auxerre vs Sochaux	2	2.99	2.57	0.16	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/9/2016	F2	Brest vs Clermont	2	4.15	3.48	0.19	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/9/2016	F2	Stade de Reims vs GFC Ajaccio	2	3.98	3.07	0.30	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/9/2016	NOR	IK Start vs Aalesunds FK	2	3.08	2.5	0.23	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/9/2016	RUS	FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov Samara	1	1.82	1.68	0.08	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	E1	QPR vs Blackburn	X2	2.26	1.84	0.23	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	E2	Gillingham vs Bradford	2	3.06	2.3	0.33	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	E2	Northampton vs Walsall	1	2.3	2.05	0.12	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	E3	Morecambe vs Doncaster	2	2.1	1.73	0.21	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	E3	Notts County vs Accrington	2	3.18	2.5	0.27	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	E3	Portsmouth vs Wycombe	1	1.7	1.53	0.11	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	MLS	Columbus Crew SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps	1	1.9	1.65	0.15	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	MLS	FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids	1	1.85	1.71	0.08	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	NED	Excelsior vs Heracles	1	3.25	2.64	0.23	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	NED	sc Heerenveen vs FC Twente	X2	2.05	1.84	0.11	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	NOR	Brann vs Viking FK	1	2.19	2	0.10	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	NOR	Valerenga vs Stromsgodset	X2	1.85	1.62	0.14	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/10/2016	SC0	Dundee vs Kilmarnock	2	4.28	3.61	0.19	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/11/2016	CHI	Shijiazhuang Ever Bright vs Jiangsu Guoxin-Sainty FC	1	4.3	2.74	0.57	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/11/2016	MLS	New England Revolution vs New York City FC	1	2.34	2.08	0.13	Marathon	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/11/2016	NOR	Stabaek vs Rosenborg	2	1.61	1.52	0.06	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/11/2016	RUS	Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv Moscow	1	2.04	1.84	0.11	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1
9/11/2016	RUS	Rubin Kazan vs FC Ural	X2	2.12	1.9	0.12	Pinnacle	9/5/2016 1:14	1

 

 

Edited September 5, 2016 by allen29
there was an error with the timestamp

[allen29]

More selections after today's market scan.

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
9/7/2016	MLS	Montreal Impact vs Orlando City SC	X2	2.5	2.08	0.20	Pinnacle	9/7/2016 15:06	1
9/7/2016	COL	Atletico Huila vs Junior	1X	2.03	1.68	0.21	Pinnacle	9/7/2016 15:06	1
9/7/2016	BRA	Santa Cruz FC vs Chapecoense AF	2	3.92	3.48	0.13	Pinnacle	9/7/2016 15:06	1
9/10/2016	COL	Atletico Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional	2	2.61	2.27	0.15	Marathon	9/7/2016 15:06	1
9/10/2016	SC2	Brechin vs Airdrieonians	1	2.5	2.08	0.20	Marathon	9/7/2016 15:06	1
9/10/2016	SC3	Clyde vs Arbroath	1	2.2	1.9	0.16	Marathon	9/7/2016 15:06	1
9/11/2016	COL	Cortulua vs Rionegro Aguilas	2	3.75	2.63	0.43	Marathon	9/7/2016 15:06	1
9/10/2016	SC1	Raith Rovers vs Falkirk	2	2.9	2.51	0.16	Marathon	9/7/2016 15:06	1

[allen29]

My god, what a weekend!

Results and Bankroll

This weekend: +16.64 pts from 33 bets

Overall: +42.71 pts from 334 bets (12.84% yield)

Since new model: +49.4 pts from 86 bets (57.44% yield)

Rubin Kazan vs Ural selection still ongoing (game is tomorrow, I had the wrong date)

 

Edited September 11, 2016 by allen29

[wizzo1970]

Well done, unbelievable returns on that spread of bets. Hope the purple patch continues

[alex_andreev89]

Man it was a great selection, hope it goes strong for the future !

Edited September 12, 2016 by alex_andreev89

[allen29]

Thanks for the good words. 

These selections are for today, I will post later the selections for the entire week.

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
9/13/2016	E1	Brighton and Hove Albion - Huddersfield	1	1.98	1.75	0.13	Pinnacle	9/13/2016 16:37	1
9/13/2016	E1	Leeds vs Blackburn	2	3.9	3.13	0.25	Marathonbet	9/13/2016 16:37	1
9/13/2016	COL	Tolima vs Cortulua	2 AH +1	1.97	1.75	0.13	Marathonbet	9/13/2016 16:37	1

[allen29]

So, update with the previous 3 games +  Rubin Kazan vs Ural: -0.05 pts

Overall: +42.66 pts from 334 bets (12.84% yield)

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
9/14/2016	E1	Rotherham vs Nottingham Forest	1	2.9	2.61	0.11	Matchbook	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/15/2016	BRA	Atletico MG vs Sport	X2	2.8	2.39	0.17	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/15/2016	BRA	Santa Cruz FC vs Atletico Paranaense	X2	1.93	1.72	0.12	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/15/2016	COL	Boyaca Chico vs Millonarios	1X	2.03	1.69	0.20	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/16/2016	BRA	Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro	X2	1.94	1.8	0.08	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/16/2016	COL	Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali	2	4.3	3.56	0.21	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/16/2016	DEN	Esbjerg vs Randers FC	2	2.33	2.03	0.15	Matchbook	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/16/2016	F2	Tours vs Nimes	2	3.6	3.25	0.11	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	D2	TSV Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen	X2	2.18	2.05	0.06	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E2	Chesterfield vs Northampton	2	3.27	2.8	0.17	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E2	Coventry vs Oldham	1	2.38	2.18	0.09	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E2	Port Vale vs Gillingham	1	2.62	2.29	0.14	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E2	Shrewsbury vs Scunthorpe	2	2.45	2.2	0.11	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E2	Southend vs Millwall	1X	2.11	1.77	0.19	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E3	Accrington vs Portsmouth	1	4.15	3.39	0.22	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E3	Cheltenham vs Notts County	2	3.26	2.45	0.33	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E3	Crawley Town vs Luton	1X	2.3	1.981648815	0.16	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	E3	Doncaster vs Newport	1	1.55	1.46	0.06	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	F1	Bordeaux vs Angers	X2	2.1	1.91	0.10	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	F2	Brest vs AJ Auxerre	2	4.75	4.21	0.13	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	MLS	Chicago Fire vs DC United	2	5.1	3.78	0.35	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	MLS	New York City FC vs FC Dallas	2	4.4	3.15	0.40	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	MLS	Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew SC	2	3.92	2.84	0.38	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	NED	FC Twente vs ADO Den Haag	1	2.46	2.2	0.12	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	NED	Willem II vs Excelsior	X2	2.28	1.92	0.19	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	OST	Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz	1X	1.96	1.76	0.11	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	RUS	Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Ufa	X2	2.73	2.47	0.11	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	SC0	Kilmarnock vs Partick Thistle	1	3.07	2.47	0.24	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	SC0	Rangers vs Ross County	2 AH +1	2.12	1.85	0.15	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	SC1	Dumbarton vs St. Mirren	1	3.3	2.88	0.15	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	SC2	Stenhousemuir vs Peterhead	2	2.2	2.05	0.07	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/17/2016	SC3	Elgin City vs Clyde	1	2.88	2.23	0.29	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	CN	Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng	2	3	2.25	0.33	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	F1	Marseille vs Lyon	2	2.32	2.62	-0.11	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	F1	St Etienne vs Bastia	X2	2.33	1.97	0.18	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	MLS	Sporting Kansas City vs LA Galaxy	1	2.3	1.9	0.21	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	MLS	Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls	1	2.5	1.95	0.28	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	MXC	America vs Leon	X2	2.21	1.94	0.14	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	MXC	Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM	1	2.45	2.17	0.13	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	NOR	Aalesunds FK vs Stromsgodset	2	2.45	2.21	0.11	Marathonbet	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	NOR	Bodo/Glimt vs Brann	1	2.97	2.59	0.15	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1
9/18/2016	SC0	Dundee vs Aberdeen	1	3.84	3.27	0.17	Pinnacle	9/14/2016 10:37	1

[allen29]

Just noticed an error with Marseille vs Lyon game. The market odds for a Lyon win were 2.62 and my odds were 2.32..basically the 2 fields were mixed up and should have been changed, otherwise the bet would not make sense.

[arsenalfh]

I'm very interested in analysing sport using statistics and your work is excellent. I've messed around with xG inputting shots manually from Stat Zone into this system but it takes time and obviously there may be slight errors as I'm using my eyes to input the shot locations. Where do you get your shot location data if you don't mind me asking? And have you developed your own xG system?

Great work and best of luck for the future.

[allen29]

Bankroll

Last selections +1.26 pts from 45 bets

Overall: +43.79 pts from 379 bets (11.5% yield)

Since new model: +50.66 pts from 131 bets (38.67% yield)

 

@arsenalfh Thanks. I get my shot locations from opta text commentary. You can get it from media services that use this data. Some options are: onefootball, espn, and bbc. Go to the live ticker tab. You will have then to use some regular expressions to extract the shot location from texts. They are not numerical coordinates, but categorical variables...but they still do a good job. And yes, I have developed my own version of XG which differs slightly from the traditional one. But XG is just one component, I use also other factors.

 

[arsenalfh]

1 hour ago, allen29 said:

Bankroll

Last selections +1.26 pts from 45 bets

Overall: +43.79 pts from 379 bets (11.5% yield)

Since new model: +50.66 pts from 131 bets (38.67% yield)

 

@arsenalfh Thanks. I get my shot locations from opta text commentary. You can get it from media services that use this data. Some options are: onefootball, espn, and bbc. Go to the live ticker tab. You will have then to use some regular expressions to extract the shot location from texts. They are not numerical coordinates, but categorical variables...but they still do a good job. And yes, I have developed my own version of XG which differs slightly from the traditional one. But XG is just one component, I use also other factors.

 

So you are using categorical variables, like for example a shot from outside the box has an xG of approx 0.03 while one from inside the box in the centre of the goal might have an xG of 0.3? I'm guessing co-ordinates are out of the reach of many of us as we just don't have that data available to us.

[allen29]

Yeah, regarding Location I have 11 location categories. But you should also use other factors, such as: what body part was used, if it was assisted or not, the method of assist, if it was a set piece or not, was the team leading or trailing, was the team even in terms of players on the pitch or in inferiority/superiority. The more context you provide, the better. You can find all of these in the text commentaries.

[allen29]

Next selections:

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
9/20/2016	COL	Patriotas vs Alianza Petrolera	X2	2.64	2.08	0.27	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/20/2016	D2	Nurnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Furth	1	2.24	2.06	0.09	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/20/2016	F2	Stade de Reims vs Clermont	2	4.62	3.51	0.32	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/20/2016	F2	Tours vs Bourg Peronnas	2	4.20	3.60	0.17	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/20/2016	I1	Atalanta vs Palermo	X2	2.42	2.04	0.19	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/20/2016	SP2	Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Real Zaragoza	2	3.28	2.77	0.18	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	CN	Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai	2	4.86	4.15	0.17	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	D2	Hannover 96 vs Karlsruher SC	X2	2.32	1.97	0.18	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	F1	Metz vs Bordeaux	1	3.38	2.92	0.16	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	F1	Nice vs AS Monaco	1	3.38	2.73	0.24	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	I1	Bologna vs Sampdoria	1	2.49	2.14	0.16	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	I1	Empoli vs Internazionale	1X	1.97	1.73	0.14	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	I1	Udinese vs Fiorentina	2	2.46	2.24	0.10	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	I1	US Pescara vs Torino	2	2.45	2.06	0.19	Matchbook	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	MXC	Cruz Azul vs Toluca	1	2.45	2.12	0.16	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	MXC	Guadalajara vs U.A.N.L	1	3.14	2.52	0.25	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	SP1	Celta Vigo vs Sporting Gijon	X2	2.64	1.91	0.38	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/21/2016	SP1	Granada vs Athletic Bilbao	1X	1.98	1.55	0.28	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/22/2016	MXC	Pumas UNAM vs Atlas	2	1.90	1.73	0.10	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/22/2016	SP1	Osasuna vs Espanyol	1	3.02	2.34	0.29	Matchbook	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/23/2016	CN	Hebei China Fortune FC vs Chongqing Lifan	X2	2.34	1.72	0.36	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	CN	Shanghai SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande	1	3.00	2.64	0.14	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	E1	Derby vs Blackburn	X2	2.50	1.88	0.33	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	E1	Rotherham vs Cardiff	2	2.90	2.67	0.09	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	E2	Northampton vs Southend	1	2.01	1.71	0.18	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	E2	Scunthorpe vs Sheffield United	1	2.53	2.08	0.22	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	E3	Colchester vs Accrington	2	3.51	2.78	0.26	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	E3	Luton vs Doncaster	2	3.02	2.19	0.38	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	E3	Morecambe vs Crawley Town	2	3.62	3.05	0.19	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	E3	Stevenage vs Exeter	2	3.42	3.01	0.14	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	F1	AS Monaco vs Angers	1	1.80	1.69	0.07	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	F1	Bordeaux vs Caen	2	5.00	4.29	0.17	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	OST	Austria Wien vs Admira Wacker	X2	2.76	2.28	0.21	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	OST	Sturm Graz vs RZ Pellets WAC	X2	2.37	2.14	0.11	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	SC0	Heart of Midlothian vs Ross County	1	1.89	1.74	0.09	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	SC0	Partick Thistle vs Motherwell	2	3.75	3.00	0.25	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	SC1	Queen of the South vs Hibernian	2	2.45	1.93	0.27	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/24/2016	SC1	Raith Rovers vs Dumbarton	X2	2.38	2.05	0.16	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/25/2016	CN	Hangzhou Greentown FC vs Jiangsu Guoxin-Sainty FC	1	4.30	3.38	0.27	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/25/2016	MLS	DC United vs Orlando City SC	1	2.14	1.79	0.20	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/25/2016	MLS	LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC	X2	2.52	2.02	0.25	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/25/2016	NOR	Stromsgodset vs Odd	1	2.48	1.98	0.25	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/25/2016	NOR	Valerenga vs Aalesunds FK	X2	2.73	2.21	0.23	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/25/2016	OST	SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg	1X	2.65	2.20	0.20	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/25/2016	SC0	Hamilton vs St. Johnstone	1	3.35	2.69	0.25	Pinnacle	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/25/2016	SP1	Leganes vs Valencia	2	2.65	2.22	0.19	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/26/2016	I1	Cagliari vs Sampdoria	1	2.50	2.23	0.12	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/26/2016	NOR	Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt	2	4.40	2.99	0.47	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1

[allen29]

Small mistake: Pumas UNAM vs Atlas bet type should be X2 at those odds, not 2.

[vikki37]

Atlanta match is tomorrow. Good luck with your bets. Have a great week.

[Matthew]

Hows do the returns from the new model compare by league? By the value metric? Would it have been more profitable taking on 2 rather than X2 etc?

Edited September 21, 2016 by Matthew

[allen29]

Bankroll

Another very good session with +10.98 pts from 46 bets

Overall : +54.77 pts from 425 bets (+12.88 % yield)

Since new model: +61.64 pts from 176 bets (+35% yield)

There are still 2 ongoing selections from today, 26/09.

I also started a tipstertube channel if you want to follow me there as well.

@Matthew There are to many leagues to draw conclusions about league performance (the highest number of bets in a league is 49, plus there are pretty big differences between what I've started with and what I'm using now) The main idea that I had is to make the models flexible and adaptable to every league that I have data from. I grouped the Results into 4 categories by the value metric and there is no big difference....meaning that higher value bets didn't necessary produce a higher return. For the bets with the biggest value, actually the return was even lower compared to the group that had the lowest value bets. 

Yes, think the returns would have been higher using 2 instead of X2 (so far for X2 bets they have +13.08 pts from 39 bets), but I really wanted to have a lower variance and reduce my chances of long losing streaks and big drops in balance.

 

[allen29]

Future sections (also re-added those still ongoing for today)

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
9/26/2016	F2	Brest vs Stade de Reims	1	2.85	2.45	0.16	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
9/26/2016	I1	Cagliari vs Sampdoria	1	2.50	2.23	0.12	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/26/2016	NOR	Stabaek vs Bodo/Glimt	2	4.40	2.99	0.47	Marathonbet	9/19/2016 13:11	1
9/27/2016	E1	Huddersfield vs Rotherham	X2	2.72	2.01	0.35	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
9/27/2016	E1	Blackburn vs Sheffield Wednesday	1	3.52	2.96	0.19	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
9/27/2016	E1	Bristol City vs Leeds	1	2.15	1.94	0.11	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
9/27/2016	E2	Bradford vs Fleetwood	1	1.82	1.71	0.06	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
9/27/2016	E2	Shrewsbury vs Peterborough	1	3.43	3.01	0.14	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
9/27/2016	E3	Cambridge Utd vs Yeovil	1	2.21	2.04	0.08	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
9/30/2016	SP1	Real Sociedad vs Real Betis	X2	2.17	1.88	0.15	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	BRA	AA Ponte Preta vs Atletico MG	1	2.98	2.29	0.30	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	BRA	Chapecoense AF vs EC Vitoria	2	4.15	3.00	0.38	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	BRA	Sao Paulo vs Flamengo	1	2.74	2.36	0.16	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	F1	Metz vs AS Monaco	1X	2.04	1.75	0.17	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	I1	Udinese vs Lazio	1	3.42	3.12	0.10	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	I1	US Pescara vs Chievo Verona	2	2.89	2.35	0.23	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	MXC	Cruz Azul vs Veracruz	X2	2.40	2.15	0.12	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	NOR	Stabaek vs Lillestrom	2	3.13	2.57	0.22	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	SP1	Deportivo La Coruna vs Sporting Gijon	2	4.90	4.00	0.23	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	SP1	Granada vs Leganes	1	2.52	2.31	0.09	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/1/2016	SP1	Osasuna vs Las Palmas	1	3.05	2.26	0.35	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	F1	Angers vs Marseille	1	2.77	2.53	0.09	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	F1	Lyon vs St Etienne	1	1.80	1.61	0.12	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	I1	AS Roma vs Internazionale	1	2.17	1.86	0.17	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	I1	Atalanta vs Napoli	1X	2.54	2.24	0.13	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	I1	Bologna vs Genoa	2	3.46	2.83	0.22	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	I1	Sampdoria vs Palermo	X2	2.36	1.88	0.26	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	MXC	Guadalajara vs Morelia	1	2.35	1.91	0.23	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	MXC	Puebla vs Pachuca	2	2.94	2.31	0.27	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	NOR	Rosenborg vs Valerenga	1	1.42	1.32	0.08	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	NOR	Viking FK vs IK Start	X2	2.96	2.60	0.14	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	RUS	FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow	1	3.72	3.32	0.12	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	RUS	Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow	1	1.88	1.61	0.17	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	SP1	Espanyol vs Villarreal	1	2.88	2.58	0.12	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/2/2016	SP1	Valencia vs Atletico Madrid	1X	2.08	1.89	0.10	Pinnacle	9/26/2016 2:12	1
10/4/2016	BRA	Coritiba FBC vs America Mineiro	X2	2.22	1.90	0.17	Marathonbet	9/26/2016 2:12	1

 

 

 

[churchofbetting]

Hey, congrats on the great work! One question - have you compared the performance of your bets when you bet to Pinnacle as opposed to other bookmakers like Marathon for example? Since Pinnacle is considered a sharp bookmaker I would expect your edge to be smaller there. Do you have any such observations?

[allen29]

Thanks. On Pinnacle the markets for not so covered leagues open just a few (2-3) days before the event and sometimes I bet sooner than that in advance. The odds are generally sharper the closer to the event. A general trend that I see is that most of the odds that I bet on few days in advance tend to drop afterwards, and that happens even on Pinnacle. I am testing this on betfair by buying the odds and then laying them on matchday and it works pretty good and it's low risk, but it's pretty time consuming and capital intensive. What I want to focus on more for the future is developing an website with predictions and statistics and visualizations so that the users can chose for themselves what to bet on.

Another area I am experimenting with is Fantasy football, predicting the points a player will get based on his stats and the opposition he is facing. These days I was thinking also about anytime goalscorer markets....but I think it is almost impossible to get historical odds to test this and it would be super timeconsuming to select bets for this market.

So I would say it is a bit harder on Pinnacle and Matchbook to find good odds but it's still pretty doable. I would expect a bit lower returns though, somewhere between 6%-9%. When I was backtesting my models, I always used closing odds and I strongly believe this is one reason that my results now, from actually implementing surpassed my expectations (although there could also be some luck evolved).

[churchofbetting]

Thanks for your answer. I have noticed something similar. I have run a quick analysis over your bets at Pinnacle (I'm already severely limited in Marathon :)), comparing the quotes you are using with the closing line from football-data.co.uk and the odds indeed tend to drift in your direction with around 1.1% on average. Not sure it's enough to beat the overround but it is impressive nevertheless. The betfair strategy looks interesting, I think I will give it a try and report later.

I know the fantasy sports are a huge market in the US but quite underdeveloped in Europe. Frankly I don't know of any website offering paid competitions on fantasy football. I think it will come up at some point though, so there you might find another application for your goalscorer models. 

Looking forward to your next stuff!

[allen29]

Bankroll

Since last post: +7.02 pts from 35 bets (Coritiba vs America MG is still ongoing)

Overall: +61.79 pts fro 460 bets (Yield: +13.43%)

Since new model: +68.66 pts from 211 bets (Yield: +32.54%)

[allen29]

Coritiba vs America MG 3:0, bet lost, that makes it:

Overall: +60.79 pts fro 461 bets (Yield: +13.18%)

Next selections: 

Date	League	Match	Side	Bmk.odds	My.odds	Value	Bookmaker	Timestamp	Stake
10/6/2016	BRA	Internacional vs Coritiba FBC	X2	2.37	2.10	0.13	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	COL	Envigado vs Boyaca Chico	X2	2.50	1.91	0.31	Marathonbet	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	E2	Scunthorpe vs Northampton	X2	2.14	1.87	0.14	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	E2	Swindon vs Bolton	1	3.27	2.75	0.19	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	E3	Accrington vs Cheltenham	1	2.13	1.79	0.19	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	E3	Colchester vs Newport	2	4.40	3.96	0.11	Marathonbet	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	E3	Hartlepool vs Crawley Town	2	4.10	3.68	0.11	Marathonbet	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	E3	Morecambe vs Carlisle	1X	2.22	1.98	0.12	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	E3	Yeovil vs Wycombe	1	2.79	2.35	0.19	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	SP2	Elche vs Gimnastic de Tarragona	2	4.35	3.43	0.27	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/8/2016	SP2	Real Valladolid vs Alcorcon	2	4.54	3.90	0.16	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/9/2016	BRA	America Mineiro vs Palmeiras	1X	2.78	1.93	0.44	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/9/2016	BRA	Cruzeiro vs AA Ponte Preta	X2	2.36	2.07	0.14	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/9/2016	BRA	Figueirense FC vs Botafogo	1	2.84	2.40	0.18	Marathonbet	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/9/2016	SP2	Mirandes vs Lugo	2	3.70	3.28	0.13	Marathonbet	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00
10/11/2016	E3	Notts County vs Morecambe	X2	2.26	1.92	0.18	Pinnacle	10/5/2016 10:07	1.00

[Heatkiger]

I have to say this project looks very promising. I'm using your picks to confirm the value in my model's picks. Turns out we pick the same side for a lot of games, which is positive for both of us.

Any chance you could tell something about your algorithm? You're using an expected goal estimator but then what? Poisson process?

Edited October 6, 2016 by Heatkiger

[allen29]

Sorry, but I have to skip this weekend. I'm migrating to a new database and data structure that will be more robust and need to adjust some things. I should be back next week.

I'll also provide the update from my last posts soon.

[renatus]

Is this thread dead?

[allen29]

Nope! There was some maintenance and took longer than expected and I didn't have as much time as I hoped to work on it. I'm almost there, should take 1-2 more days until I can make new predictions.