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Ashtee

2016 AFL ROUND 1

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Seems fairly predictabe how the line ups will look for most teams, so no hesitation taking these prices while they lasted.

Gold Coast -32.5 @ 1.93

Have impressed in preseason, shrewdly coached and I don't expect any major surpises from Essendon.

Collingwood @ 2.43

Strange to the venue but have the superior line-up available. Are the clear cut favorite to win IMO.

Port Adelaide -26.5 @ 2.01

A couple of boys under the Essendon suspension but still have a powerful looking team, who should bring a better brand of motivation than in 2015. Saints likely to be outclassed.

Edited by Ashtee

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Melbourne - GWS OVER 169.5 @ 1.91

8-14 & 15-7 last season but of course rule changes and teams looking towards Hawthorn (2015 #2) model. Melbourne's previous game style obviously hasn't been good for their form, so I'll trust that they, do in fact, play a more open brand in the Round-1 conditions.

Season Wins: Sydney UNDER 14.0 @ 1.90

Have a significantly more shallow list than the dozen or so other teams contending for finals and not the best of signs when a couple of seasoned veterens can't even make it to the start line. May well find themselves subject to rebuild, with a list including fifteen gameless players and five under six games. 3.00 to Miss Top-8 is good deal, also.

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Oh, so how times have changed all of a sudden - now we're talking about gold Coast as too experienced and I notice that GWS will probably be more experienced than Melbourne.

Totally unbiased pick their, I'm sure crowbot :lol. I actually think Adelaide's price is a bit big too. Got to love the headline mentality, whereby losing a star player gets thought of as though Crows have lost a third of their team. There's actually a lot to like about the likely team they'll take to Docklands IMO.

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My friend uses hot stones to calculate his bets so he came up with this:

Melbourne +28.5@1.25

Collingwood +29.5@1.30

Geelong +29.5@1.28

 As a multi play 10 units @ 2.08 bet 365

One of the stones rolled around more than usual indicating one dangerous selection.

 

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Fremantle @ 2.42 & +8.5 @ 1.97

The price seems an overaction to the Johnson theory + Sandilands, Bennell. They still field a highly credentialed squad, while Dogs, themselves, are missing a couple they'd like there and have gone with two first gamers. Always that danger WBD get a little ahead of themselves off a strong season (Eg. Port 2015). Dockers evens at worst IMO!

 

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On 23 March 2016 11:29:52 AM, Ashtee said:

Melbourne - GWS OVER 169.5 @ 1.91

8-14 & 15-7 last season but of course rule changes and teams looking towards Hawthorn (2015 #2) model. Melbourne's previous game style obviously hasn't been good for their form, so I'll trust that they, do in fact, play a more open brand in the Round

Tailed, lets hope Melb continue their higher scoring post pre season.

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There was money for the under imediately after Thursday's result but of coarse, as you know, 175 for Richmond together with the impotentancy of Carlton's attack, seemed on the big side, in reality.

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