March 21 - March 27

[four-leaf]

Thomaz Bellucci to beat Mikhail Kukushkin for a 6/10 stake at 2.62 with Paddypower

I take Bellucci here since he's got a far better record then Kukushkin in Miami. They did face 9 years ago in Italy in some futures event where Kukushkin won in straight sets but that's not worth taking in to account. Kukushkin has never past the second round in Miami and he's played in Miami five times this being the sixth and he's favourite here only because of his match against Baker and the one against Djokovic in DC. Bellucci is not out of this by any means. He can be crap on hard court Bellucci but this time I think he brings his A game.

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Steve Johnson to beat Tomas Berdych for a 5/10 stake at 4.00 with Bet365

Steves latest match against Zverev was brilliant playing from the american. He did'nt allow Zverev to break serve once and he really took the crowd support positive. Like he had no pressure at all playing on US soil. He will be a tough match for Berdych who I think does'nt have mutch form to speak of.

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Gonna be a tough battle for Monfils against Cuevas who as I write is leading Millman by a set and a break. Very clinical effort by Pablo, some seriously good hitting just like I'm used to see him.

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My god how awful Serena is playing, just don't understand what she's doing. She is absolutely not at her best now but that could be seen already in Australian open and in IW final where she was outplayed and outserved by Azarenka.

[CzechPunter]

Back David Ferrer (-4.5) to beat Lucas Pouille for a 7/10 stake at 1.89 with Unibet

Back Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Dominic Thiem for a 4/10 stake at 5.75 with Unibet

Back Benoit Paire to beat Richard Gasquet for a 5/10 stake at 3.90 with Unibet

Not a good event so far, but I'll go for these three today. Ferrer should be straightforward enough, while I also like Nishioka and Paire at the big odds, as both Thiem and Gasquet could struggle in the tough Miami conditions in my opinion.

Full preview here: punts.pl/MiamiDay5

[four-leaf]

Joao Sousa (+6.5) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 6/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddypower

Sousa is a pretty tricky customer. He can be very solid from the baseline. More solid then Edmund ofcourse and he should really not lose by 7 games to Nole even if he turns it on. Edmund should have gone down 6-1 in first set but Nole put his foot off the pedal for a while and Edmund could break back and I'm sure Joao will be able to produce at least just as good enough effort not to lose by 7 games.

[four-leaf]

Benoit Paire (+3.5) to beat Richard Gasquet for a 6/10 stake at 2.20 with Paddypower

Just like Czech already has mentioned I think Paire might be solid enough to even win as Gasquet might struggle in the tough Miami conditions and +3.5 games can start to look pretty good if Paire gets a break which I'm sure he will at some point.

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Pablo Cuevas (+3.5) to beat Gael Monfils for a 8/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddypower

When I saw Pablo playing against John Millman I immediately checked who he would be up against in next match and seeing that he faces Monfils does'nt scare me a bit. Cuevas was rocksolid from the baseline. He did very few unforced errors and he was so solid as not even a sniff of a break chance could emerge for John. I expect more of the same from Pablo here and trust me he will do the same and that means he will cover this handicap.

[four-leaf]

Svetlana Kuznetsova (+5.5) to beat Serena Williams for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddypower

Serena just is'nt playing good these days. She spews unforced errors from everywhere and does everything completely awful even when she hits winners. Svetlana has a chance in this match no doubt since we will most likely see the unforced error Serena again.

Edit: The head to head is not mutch to talk about but they have a history where Svetlana has on a number of occasions not lost by 6 games.

Edited March 27, 2016 by four-leaf

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Ekaterina Makarova to beat Elina Svitolina for a 8/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddypower

Got to take this bet. Makarova beat Svitolina three times last season in straight sets and that happened also in US open at the time when Makarova was struggling with her game. I will be a bit surprised if Svitolina acctually can manage to win this match. Not fully expecting the end of the road for Svitolina but at this price Makarova is a good bet since she could easily be a bigger favourite.

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Angelique Kerber (-5.5) to beat Kiki Bertens for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddypower

Kerber has found her groove again and is playing well. She could easily cover this but it's the price that makes me willing to take the bet since I would not have taken it if Kerber had been 1.66 favourite to win by 6 games. But 2.10 is alright.

Edit: I would have taken this bet even if Kerber had been a little suspect but beating Strycova 6-1 6-1 is a sign of confidence which she has struggled a bit with since winning her maiden grand slam.

Edited March 27, 2016 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

From yesterday when Serena played Zarina there was an argument between Serena and the umpire where Serena said to the umpire "you're always picking on me, I've had enough struggles already" and that speaks for itself how Serena herself says about her current situation and you could tell from that what kind of mood she's in right now and it's no good mood. I really have to question which Serena will turn up tomorrow but as I've said it's a high risk of being the unforced error Serena.

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Andrey Kuznetsov (-1.5 sets) to beat Adrian Mannarino for a 8/10 stake at 2.37 with Paddypower

Gotta be a pretty tired Adrian stepping on to the court against the more rested Andrey. Less court time then your opponent in these hot conditions is vital to having a good game and I belive it will have its impact in this match. Adrian has not even played that well here as he was practially gifted the win from Querrey who made 10 double faults in about 12 service games. Andrey is the more solid player here and with less court time and he should be able to stroll past his opponent.