March 21 - March 27

[CzechPunter]

[ogii55]

Fritz - Kicker U17.5 2.44  Pinnacle

 

Kicker is a clay court player in bad shape, while Fritz once again has a chance to make a big jump. Last week he lost the battle of young guns and now will be pumbed to show his quality. I expect from him to be on 100% since the start of the match and to score many breaks over not so good serving Kicker. In the past Fritz covered U17.5 line most of the times against such opponents.

[ogii55]

Karatancheva - Rogers 3.05 Pinnacle

 

H2H is for Rogers, who won twice over Karatancheva. They are pretty much on the same level. The difference is that Sesil has to defend very important points for reaching the second round last year. Rogers was lucky last week in IW against Duque-Marino. I expect here three set battle with many breaks.

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5pts N.Broady to beat C.Buyukakcay 2-0 5/4 Skybet
Broady had a poor start to 2015,  but since the Washington DC event, where she got to the last 16 she has been improving. By the end of 2015 she had won a challenger event on the hard court. At the start of this year she has already gone deep at Auckland, getting to the Quarter-finals. At the Australian Open she let herself down somewhat,losing to Lim in 3 sets. Since then she has got to a semi-final at Maui, won the Midland event and got to the semi-final of Kuala Lumpur. Along the way this year she has beaten players like Lisicki, Brengle, Rybarikova, Ostapenko and Ana Ivanovic in straight sets. 

She is at her career highest ranking 80th and this is a perfect event for her to get some more WTA points as she hasn't competed here since 2012.

Her opponent, Buyukakcay a similar story in the sense a poor start to 2015 until she won the Batumi event. After a stumble she then also won the Dubai event and got to the final of Ankara. The difference is, her best win was probably against Dulgheru ranked 57th at Dubai and the majority of her wins have been against poor players whilst she has quite regularly lost to players 200+ ranked. 

Much like Broady she is in better form at the start of this year and also finds herself at her best ranking of 121nd. She has beaten Siegemund, Hradecka and Safarova already this season.

Head-2-head shows one match won in straight sets by Broady, at the French Open (on the clay) which may show she enjoys the match-up. I see her using her serve well here which is her biggest strength to keep hold and allow her to attack her opponents service games. She managed 9 aces in that French Open match, where as Bayukakcay hasn't managed even 6 aces in her last 6 matches combined. 

[CzechPunter]

Back Viktoria Azarenka to win the 3rd quarter for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Back Karolina Pliskova to win the 4th quarter for a 3/10 stake at 6.50 with Paddy Power

Back Shuai Peng to beat Alison Van Uytvanck for a 5/10 stake at 4.90 with Unibet

Back Christina McHale (-2.5) to beat Misaki Doi for a 7/10 stake at 1.87 with Unibet

Fancy Azarenka and Pliskova to go well once again, at least one of them should get through to the semis based on Indian Wells form and the fact that they are outside the toughest quarters. Also fancy Peng at a massive price, she's going to get a win eventually and Van Uytvanck might not be able to handle her smart brand of tennis. Finally, there's McHale with a 4-0 record against Doi and I think that she's going to get a decent win for the fifth time in a row given her current form.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/wta-miami-tips-will-viktoria-azarenka-get-the-double--2016032102

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4pts N.Broady to beat A.Sasnovich 2-0 7/4 Paddypower
Sasnovich is ranked 100th so this match isn't too dis-similar to Broadys first. Broady hit 9 aces and won her match comfortably. She took her foot off the gas in the second, got broke and then broke straight back so she is a fighter. These have played only last year on the outdoor hard and Broady won 2-0. There she hit 10 aces and offered just 3 break points the entire match. She's in similar form to do the same here.

4pts E.Vesnina to beat Pironkova Evens Skybet
Pironkova has played alot of tennis recently. Vesnina has got past the first round for the last couple of years here. She's currently ranked 96th and could gain some valuable WTA points once she beats Pironkova. Pironkova, ranked 93rd, also got to the 2nd round here last year. These two played in 2013 on the hard court and Vesnina won 2-1 there. 
 

[ogii55]

Knapp - Wickmayer 3.98 Pinnacle

 

Knapp is returning after long recovery, but it was very well planned. She didn't need some warm up tournaments, because she was on full engine in training since the start of the year. Knapp is Top 50 player, who had great 2015 season. Despite 0:2 H2H against Wickmayer I thing she will be far more motivated here. I will put double pick for her, not only for a W, but also 2:0 win over Yanina.

[ogii55]

Mmoh - Zverev 6,8 Pinnacle

Zverev is on fire this season, but he is still struggling to show his best against week opponents. He was almost beaten by the likes of Vanni and Berrer, where he didn't show his best. I like very much Mmoh's play. He was unlucky against Smytchek and with such odds here he is a great value. Zverev has too much emotions in the last couple of weeks with indoor tournament in Europe, Davis cup and last week in IW. Maybe he will overburn, which is something usual for young guys.

[ogii55]

Swan - Crawford 4.6 Pinnacle

Crawford wasn't impressive in her first match here. According to reports she made a lot of UE. On the other hand 17-year old former junior star Swan started very well here with a comeback win over Davis. Both Davis and Crawford are on the same level. Swan is capable to show once again nice performance and to qualify for the main draw.

[Sir Puntalot]

23 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Back Viktoria Azarenka to win the 3rd quarter for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Back Karolina Pliskova to win the 4th quarter for a 3/10 stake at 6.50 with Paddy Power

Back Shuai Peng to beat Alison Van Uytvanck for a 5/10 stake at 4.90 with Unibet

Back Christina McHale (-2.5) to beat Misaki Doi for a 7/10 stake at 1.87 with Unibet

Fancy Azarenka and Pliskova to go well once again, at least one of them should get through to the semis based on Indian Wells form and the fact that they are outside the toughest quarters. Also fancy Peng at a massive price, she's going to get a win eventually and Van Uytvanck might not be able to handle her smart brand of tennis. Finally, there's McHale with a 4-0 record against Doi and I think that she's going to get a decent win for the fifth time in a row given her current form.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/wta-miami-tips-will-viktoria-azarenka-get-the-double--2016032102

Peng - kerching. Nicely done.  

[CzechPunter]

Back Marin Cilic to win the 2nd quarter for a 3/10 stake at 10.00 with Bet365

Back Stanislas Wawrinka to win the 3rd quarter for a 5/10 stake at 5.50 with Paddy Power

Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win the 4th quarter for a 3/10 stake at 11.00 with Paddy Power

Back Teimuraz Gabashvili to beat Lucas Pouille for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Going with a couple of big shots in the quarter betting, it's all about the prices really and I do see many of the favourites struggling. All three should be in with a chance I reckon. In the match betting, I'd have Gabashvili much closer to the 1.67 mark, so I have to back him at 1.80 against Pouille, who hasn't really impressed anyone so far in this season.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/miami-day-1-tips-djokovic-federer-or-someone-else--2016032206

[ogii55]

Pliskova (-6.5) - Gibert 2.69 Pinnacle

 

Kristina Plyskova is in great form and beat with -6 handycap far more better players than Badosa Gibert in qualifications as Sinakova and Shvedova. Gibert will play her first match on hard this season. She wasn't convincing even on clay. I can't see her doing something here. Pliskova will destroy her and such Handicap is 50/50 to be covered. The question is if Pliskova will be in bad mood to punish her opponent or she will give her several chances.

[matrixman]

Winning both Indian Wells and Miami is hardly ever done...But Granollers is in super white hot form  at the moment winning Irving vs good competition.he seems to be back to form from a few years back when he was winning 250s.He is in a good quarter and his odds might be around 100-1!!!

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4pts M.Puig to beat C.Bellis 2-0 Evens Coral
I think this match will be pretty straight forward for Puig. Bellis is a decent up and coming player but I just don't see her giving Puig much trouble. Puig serves well and I cannot see Bellis getting the breaks she needs and being overpowered on her own games.

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6pts M.Baghdatis -2.5 games to beat B.Becker 4/6 Skybet
Big difference in quality between these two. Baghdatis is a top 40 player who had a fantastic Dubai, getting to the final and beating the likes of Lopez and an in-form Agut, where as Becker is losing Challenger matches against players like 201st ranked Krstin & 167th ranked Tiafoe. 3 head-2-head matches between these two all won by Baghdatis. I fancy this 2-0 but I'll take the games to be sure.  

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3pts B.Strycova to beat A.Kerber 2/1 888Sport
I think it's possible we see a suprise here. Kerber has been in no form atall since her epic Australian Open win against Serena. Out of Doha in round 1 to Zheng in straight sets. Out of Indian Wells in round 1 to Allertova in straight sets. Strycova is in really good form and she now finds herself a top 32 player. The head-2-head reads bad reading 3-0 to Kerber but if there was ever a good time to play Kerber, it's now.

[CzechPunter]

Back Lukas Rosol to beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert for a 7/10 stake at 1.91 with Unibet

Back Tim Smyczek to beat Tommy Paul for a 7/10 stake at 1.67 with BetVictor

Back Brian Baker to beat Mikhail Kukushkin for a 4/10 stake at 5.00 with Unibet

Rosol a level above Herbert in my book, so I quite like the 1.91 that's on offer for him, while I also reckon that Smyczek will have enough against Paul as well. Apart from that, I'll also go for a small punt on Baker, who shouldn't be without his chances against Kukushkin even despite the obvious limitations he has.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/MiamiDay2

[WinningTipster]

1 PICKS FOR ATP MIAMI:

BERDYCH-RAM 2:0 SETS @ 1.42 on pinnaclesports
Ram's main weapon is his serve but Berdych returns the serve so well from both sides and he is a much better baseline player.

 

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4pts A.Petkovic to beat C.Garcia 11/8 Coral
Petkovic with points to protect here. She got to the Semi-final last year whilst Garcia went out in her first round to lowly ranked Nara. Garcia won the last meeting that came this year but I think that will change today if Petkovic wants to remain in or around a top 20 player. She is in good form, getting to a semi-final of Doha before retiring injured against Ostapenko but she's played since then losing to Strycova which is normal really as Strycova is in hot form nowadays. 

6pts D.Gavrilova to beat Z.Diyas 4/6 StanJames
Gavrilova also one who did well here last year and will need to protect the points. She got to the last 16 whilst Diyas went out in her first round after a bye. I'll also be backing her to win on some kind of handicap whether that be 2-0 or on a game handicap but I'll tip the outright at a pretty good price all things considered. 

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I'll be leaving the mens side as nothing screams out really due to Novaks form. Tsonga looks a good E/W shout but meh, much more value on the womens side. 

0.5pts E/W C. Suarez Navarro to win WTA Miami 100/1 Bet365
0.5pts E/W S. Errani to win WTA Miami 200/1 Paddypower
0.5pts E/W J. Konta to win WTA Miami 100/1 888Sport
Just crazy prices for women who did so well last year. Suarez Navarro was brilliant here getting to the final and beating the likes of Radwanska, Venus Williams & Petkovic. She would again be drawn away from Serena so if she were to meet her it would again not be until the final. Id fancy her against Vandewegh based on what I witnessed last night against Crawford. She'd face Konta if she were to beat Venus and the winner of that has a real shot being up against Azarenka who you'd think will be tired after how much effort she put in to win last week. Another player I like this week is Errani who also has a great chance of making a final and also did well last year making the Last 16.

[four-leaf]

John Millman to beat Pablo Carreno Busta for a 6/10 stake at evens with Paddypower

Gonna go for John Millman to beat Pablo Carreno Busta as the surface suits him more then Busta. No time for more writeup.

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2.5pts L.Safarova to beat Y.Wickmayer 13/10 Boylesports
Odds have drifted enough now for me to go the opposite way. I originally was going to look at this game and tip Wickmayer until I see that she was favourite. Now, at 13/10 I'm firmly on the side of Safarova. It's a great price if she is back to fitness from her illness. She hasn't really come back from her final at the French Open last year but she did have alot of injuries with bacterial infections. Her form ofcourse has slipped largely with it does seem she is getting some fitness back and practicing hard again with K.Pliskova. My worry is obviously the form, the doubles results (she lost easily in double paring with Makarova to unknowns) so it's a hard one to call but the odds are just enough for me to have alittle interest. At your own risk.

[four-leaf]

Gavrilova is really making lots of silly unforced errors and a lot more normal unforced errors then Diyaz. If she does'nt stop doing it she will lose the match for sure.

[four-leaf]

Gavrilova has again played some awful tennis...

[CzechPunter]

Back David Ferrer (-3.5) to beat Taylor Fritz for a 7/10 stake at 2.02 with Unibet

Back Juan Martin del Potro Total Games - Over 10.5 for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Back Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (-2.5) to beat Lucas Pouille for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Fancy these three for tomorrow - Ferrer should find Fritz easy to deal with even after not having played much recently, del Potro should be able to get something against the returning Federer given how he's playing at the moment, and Garcia-Lopez should just get Pouille out of the way with the quality gap that's between the two.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/MiamiDay3

[ArmandV]

Back Sara Errani to beat Naomi Osaka for a 7/10 stake at 1.67 with Boylesports

I fancy Sara Errani to beat Osaka today. Odds >1.6 is good, I'd take the bet down to 1.5-1.55.

Errani enjoys Miami https://www.facebook.com/saraerraniofficial - and she was in the QF here only a few years ago; lost to Sharapova after beating good players (Hantuchova, Halep, Ivanovic). She is in-form now (won Dubai a few weeks ago) and a bit of medicore play in recent tournaments after winning has helped increasing the odds for today's match, I think.

Osaka defeated Paszek (1st round Indian Wells) and Parmentier (1st round here in Miami) only barely, and even if she is a great talent (18 yrs old) with a lot of great wins to come, I think she is a good matchup for Errani today. Osaka's big serve and heavy play doesn't give her as much in humid and warm Miami as it does many other places. Miami is even better climate for Errani than Dubai, and I think she is the winner today. The odds on offer are too good to ignore.

[ogii55]

Ito - Monfis 6,2 Pinnacle

 

Monfis has a history here of loosing from weaker opponents. So far Ito is impressive in Miami. He beat hard serving Mahut and broke him four times. I put Ito with the odds of 4.5-5, so 6,2 is a great value and he is capable to stun Monfis.

[ogii55]

Herbert - Nishikori 5.8 Matchbook

 

Herbert is serving amazing. He made three easy wins and showed that his form is going up after winning doubles event in Indian Wells. Now he will have a chance to prove himself. Nishikori was close to lose against two other hard servers Johnson and Isner last week, but he showed guts and beat them. However Kei is still far away from his best. He is the favorite, but at the same time seems vulnerable.

[CzechPunter]

Back John Isner (-3.5) to beat Tim Smyczek for a 7/10 stake at 1.89 with Unibet

Back S.Giraldo/J-W.Tsonga - Over 20.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with BetVictor

Back P-H.Herbert/K.Nishikori - Over 20.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Isner should have it easy against Smyczek really, but I think that we're going to see tight duels in both Giraldo/Tsonga and Herbert/Nishikori. Both underdogs looked good in the previous round and the favourites are yet to get going, after all.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/MiamiDay4

[four-leaf]

Pablo Cuevas to beat John Millman for a 8/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddypower

John Millman was evens to beat Pablo Carreno Busta. A player Cuevas toys with and now Millman is the same price against Cuevas who is now ranked 25 after his titles runs in south america. I don't get how Paddypower is thinking here about their pricesetting but this match will be Pablos to win. The surface is slow for a hard court and even if I wrote that the surface suits John better then Pablo C Busta last time I think Pablo can win this quite easily as he tends to stroll past opponents lower ranked in most tournaments. I take this price on Pablo any day of the week when he's up against John in an important tournament like this. At the start of the match Millman may be good enough to get a break or even a set but the longer the match goes on Pablo gets more advantage.