Twenty20 World Cup 2016

[Fader]

I didn't see a thread for this. Starts tomorrow morning

[Fader]

2pts India to win the Twenty20 World cup AND V.Kohli Top Batsman 20/1 Skybet
I'm going to take a gamble on the double as I do not see the value in betting on India winning the tournament at such short odds. Kohli the man in form, home turf also. Everything just seems to be falling in to place for India at the moment so this seems a nice price for the combo.

[BigMozzyDog]

Hi Fader. Yes the tournament in full does start tomorrow, but in real terms it's a week today (South Africa and Australia are still playing warm up games). The initial group stage is for the associate nations to decide which two sides get through to the super tens, where the eight top ranked sides join the fray.

After Wednesday's final SAvsAUS game, I'll preview the tournament though, picking out a few top performer bets and a winner etc.

Kohli will go big for my money, so your bet looks a good one. Watch out for the Windies at a big price too (if Andre Russell avoids suspension)!

[Mirage]

It looks as though Russell is free to play, that's a big boost for the West Indies. Like BMD, I'll be getting involved after the South Africa - Australia decider.

Edited March 7, 2016 by Mirage
Spelling

[potus]

I'm not sure what system they used to draw the two groups but it definitely needs to be looked at with a view to being changed.

 

Australia, India, New Zealand and presumably Bangladesh all in the same group, along with Pakistan. Then you have South Africa and....... nobody in the other group. Bizarre.

 

I think it does make what could potentially have been a betting minefield a lot easier though. Go big on the tournament outrights on India and South Africa and watch the cash roll in.

 

[Fader]

6pts Afghanistan Vs Scotland - M.Shahzad player performance (32 & Over) 1.83 Bet365
1pt M.Shahzad Man Of The Match 9/1 Bet365 
If Afghanistan are going to win this, which you'd expect they will need a big performance from Shahzad. He normally performs well when they win. He got a 118 recently to add to other scores of 82,45 and 42 in his last 6/7 matches. He ofcourse is also a wicket-keeper which should only add to his performance score. In the last 3 matches for example he has taken 5 catches in the last 4 matches. 

[Fader]

I should also add in the five matches where these two have met, Shahzad has covered this performance score in every single one, infact in 4 of the 5 he did it with the bat alone. Batting scores of 30, 55, 46, 42 and 75. He also got a stumping and catch in the match he got 30 in the crease. His average performance score across five matches against Scotland is 58.6

[Fader]

3pts Bangladesh Vs Holland - Al-Amin Hossain Top Bangladesh Bowler 10/3 William Hill
I'd really like a performance market here on Mahmudullah as I rate him very highly. Nevertheless, I don't see it offered anywhere so I will take another player I rate highly and that's bowler, Al-Amin Hossain. He has got wickets against top teams like India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan this year and I see him going through this Holland line-up. 
 

[Mirage]

Great work on the Shahzad bets, Fader

[BigMozzyDog]

Awesome pick, Fader.

[Fader]

Thx both good to see him get man of the match too 

[Fader]

2pts Ireland Vs Oman - Tim Murtagh Top Ireland Bowler 7/2 Bet365
2pts Ireland Vs Oman - Kevin O'Brien Top Ireland Bowler 11/2 Bet365
1pt Kevin O'Brien Man Of The Match 10/1 Ladbrokes
I Think Kevin O'Brien may be the one to watch in this match. He contributes well with both the bat and the ball and you only have to look at recent results for that. I think he is too far down the lineup for him to danger the "Top Batsman" line but he has done really well bowling recently. He has got 7 wickets in his last few matches and if he's given the ball enough here he could be a surprise top bowler. If not though, I'm going with the solid Murtagh whom has also got something like 12 wickets in the 5-6 warm up Twenty20 matches. Small punt on the MOTM again, if it all comes into place.
 

[potus]

It's a complete insult to Bangladesh to make them go through this qualifying group. They are a better team than England, Pakistan, West Indies and probably a transitional Sri Lanka, yet they could easily lose one of their three qualifying matches and not even make the tournament proper. Along with the uneven group draws I mentioned in my previous post, I think the tournament set-up is really poor.

[Fader]

Al-Amin top bowler. Shame Kevin O'Brien wasn't higher in the order but hoping he gets abit of the ball to get a few wickets. +24pts for the thread

[Messi10]

Oman beating Ireland the first surprise of the world cup. It's incredible how much money gets matched on betfair even on these minor matches. Over 25 million yesterday on Scotland Afghanistan. I won a 12/5 bet on No Batsman to score 50 in the Ireland Oman game today, I thought it would be a low scoring game, it wasn't that low scoring, but fortunately I came through.

Yesterday Scotland were 85/0 after 10 overs chasing 165. They came in to 1.5 favourites against 3.0 Afghanistan. Anyone who knows anything about cricket would've lumped on Afghanistan. Spinning wickets, pace coming off the ball, Scotland's middle order are terrible. I fortunately got on Afghanistan at 2.8. They and Bangladesh will be the two qualifiers into the tournament.

As for the World Cup. It's incredible how much stronger Group 2 is than Group 1. India NZ and Aus are the 3 strongest sides in the tournament.

West Indies and Sri Lanka are very average sides, which should give England a pretty clear run to the semi finals. Us and SA are pretty similar I think, they have a good bowling attack, good openers, but an average middle order.

I suspect both England and SA will lose their semi finals, to India and either Australia or New Zealand. I wouldn't be surprised to see NZ beat Australia and secure 2nd in Group 2. Australia haven't got a good enough bowling attack, as explosive as their batting is.

 

[BigMozzyDog]

The T20 World Cup is everything the 50-over tournament isn’t. It’s a rip-roaring, fast paced entertainment frenzy that takes less than a month. This edition takes place in India where the home fans will expect some celebrations on their own soil. Their obvious favourites, but can anyone stop them?

England

Eoin Morgan’s men, like several side’s in this competition, are in transition. They are keen to play an exciting brand of cricket that everyone else has adopted for a decade. But with such a quantum leap, comes uncertainty. Yes T20 cricket is a cauldron of sixes and wickets, but knowing how to win a game takes more than aggression. Every side needs players who read the situation. For me, That is what this side lacks.

They have a decent chance of progressing from the weaker of the two groups, where they will be joined by South Africa, West Indies, Sri Lanka and, in all likelihood, Zimbabwe. They may still struggle to progress, with the Windies having as many match winners as many sides in this competition.

Players to watch: Adil Rashid - The Yorkshire leggie was the best bowler in Big Bash 5, taking three wicket hauls for fun. With spin likely to dominate, he could do something special if he gets enough game time. Rashid is 22/1 to be top bowler with Stan James.

Sri Lanka

Traditionally strong limited overs performers, Sri Lanka are in some bother. Their most explosive batsman is absent and they seem too fragile to build a commanding total. Or even a competitive one.

Skipper Lasith Malinga will lead a bowling attack that is relatively strong, but in the batting department they are too weak to progress. Expect them to miss out on the semi-finals, while potentially springing the odd surprise if everything clicks.

Player to watch: Dinesh Chandimal is class, and opening with Dilshan, offers the islanders best chance at success. His ability to judge length and punish spin square of the wicket will make him dangerous. Chandimal is 50/1 to be top batter with Paddy Power.

South Africa

Yes they lost their warm-up series to Australia, but that hotly contested encounter could put them in a great place for tournament cricket. Faf’s men are looking up for a battle, with a healthy mix of match winners across the batting and bowling departments.

Over the last few years they have been the best side in the world at winning abroad, and with many of their players IPL veterans, India will be familiar enough. They have two of the most exciting young players in the world in De Kock and Rabada, so it will be interesting to see if the older guard can come to the party.

Player to watch: Hashim Amla - Who’d have thought it a month ago, but Amla is on flames in this short format, and goes into the tournament on the back of a 70-odd, followed by a 90-odd. Both were notched in good time too. His technique should favour the sub-continent so he will be in with a great chance of the top batter gong. Amla is 25/1 to be top batter with Paddy Power.

West Indies

Even their coach Phil Simmons probably isn’t sure how they’ll go on. But despite their continued decline, this is the format where they can be most dangerous. In fact, in tournaments all over the world, they tend to have the most dangerous players. Many of their players are vastly experienced in big IPL games too. Kieron Pollard is a massive miss for them, but in Dwayne Bravo, they have one of the best players in the world.

Losing Sunil Narine to a ban is another blow, but they have the spinners to cause problems. Their big game players include the Gayle storm himself, who is almost capable of carrying them to the final single-handed. He’s that destructive. They have received a pre-World Cup boost with the news that Andre Russell, one of the hot tickets in T20 cricket, has been allowed to play. He’s another explosive player who could go huge.

Player to watch: Andre Russell - After a show-stopping Big Bash, the Jamaican has become a true all rounder. He may be the cleanest striker of a ball in the middle order at this tournament. A big hitter, he won’t need too many balls to rack up the sixes. Russell is 20/1 to hit the most sixes with Paddy Power.

Australia

Boasting some of the best batting talent in the world, all in a single line-up, it’s not surprising they are one of the favourites to win the thing. However, there is a question mark over their bowling, particularly in the spin department, where they may be found wanting on these dry decks.

Steve Smith’s men travel to India on the back of a confidence boosting win over South Africa, which was build on the fine form of players like Maxwell and Warner, who look set to add menace to their middle order. Now the Khawaja has made himself indispensable to the side, how they shape up at the top will be interesting, with former-skipper Aaron Finch not sure of a berth. They go close, but we can’t see them winning it.

Player to watch: Usman Khawaja - The young man has come of age this season, and arrives at this tournament after firing his Sydney Thunder side to victory in the Big Bash. He was more or less unstoppable throughout the tournament, as he has been in all formats. He is likely to open in this World Cup. Khawaja is 25/1 to be top batsman with Stan James.

New Zealand

The first post-McCullum T20 World Cup for the Black Caps will see them be as hard to beat as ever, but without the much missed swashbuckling skipper. What they do have is a new breed of exciting youth and a seemingly-rejuvenated Martin Guptill. Guptill has been in form few players can imagine, this season. He’s been a multi-format ninja for half a year, blitzing scores all round the world.

They also have a mix of bowlers, with some pace and reverse, combined with canny medium and spin. Kane Williamson will lead the side well, and they are likely to be extremely competitive. If they miss out on a semi-final spot, it won’t be by much. Dark horses.

Player to watch: Colin Munro - The stocky big-hitter has broken a raft of records this year (including a 50 off 14 balls). He’s likely to be used at three, and doesn’t need long to get going. This guy spanks it. Munro can be backed at 40/1 to be top batsman with BoyleSports.

Pakistan

Well, who knows? Certainly not them. A horrible side to draw, it’s hard to know how they’ll get on from game to game. Afridi and his men have a strong bowling attack, led by the returning Mohammad Amir, who seems to have retained his quality in the five years since his ban.

They have some quality in Hafeez at the top, though he is in dismal form. Sarfraz has looked their best batsman in the warm-ups, btu a string of low team totals has seen them barely contest a game.

Player to watch: Wahab Riaz - The left armer offers express pace and wicket taking prowess. They will cause sides problems with the ball, and this brute will be the Pakistan enforcer. Shane Watson will certainly remember their last encounter. Riaz can be backed at 40/1 to be top bowler with 888Sport.

India

The hosts and a side that’s packed with quality. Batting down to 8, with a mix of hitters and finishers, they know the conditions inside and out. They are the side best equipped with spinners too. They have Ashwin, H Singh, Jadeja, Pandya and Negi, plus a host of part-time options.

They will again be led by the master, MS Dhoni. He’s still the best finisher in the game, and his more considered captaincy could be key to success. Runs aren’t always easy to come by in India, so a willingness to strangle sides could land in his favour.

Player to watch: Rohit Sharma - This fella is sensational. The complete limited overs opener. Barely a game goes by without him getting a score. He averages over 32 in this format and has developed his game to exploit the powerplays, while maximising the greater space offered in the middle overs. Sharma is 10/ to be top batter with Bet365.

The bets:

2 pts South Africa to win at 5/1 with Paddy Power

1pt e/w West Indies to win at 12/1 with Coral

2pts Amla to be top batsman at 25/1 with Paddy Power

2pts Dwayne Bravo to be top bowler at 28/1 with BoyleSports

1pt Rohit Sharma to hit most sixes at 66/1 with Paddy Power

[BigMozzyDog]

5 hours ago, Messi10 said:

Oman beating Ireland the first surprise of the world cup. It's incredible how much money gets matched on betfair even on these minor matches. Over 25 million yesterday on Scotland Afghanistan. I won a 12/5 bet on No Batsman to score 50 in the Ireland Oman game today, I thought it would be a low scoring game, it wasn't that low scoring, but fortunately I came through.

Yesterday Scotland were 85/0 after 10 overs chasing 165. They came in to 1.5 favourites against 3.0 Afghanistan. Anyone who knows anything about cricket would've lumped on Afghanistan. Spinning wickets, pace coming off the ball, Scotland's middle order are terrible. I fortunately got on Afghanistan at 2.8. They and Bangladesh will be the two qualifiers into the tournament.

As for the World Cup. It's incredible how much stronger Group 2 is than Group 1. India NZ and Aus are the 3 strongest sides in the tournament.

West Indies and Sri Lanka are very average sides, which should give England a pretty clear run to the semi finals. Us and SA are pretty similar I think, they have a good bowling attack, good openers, but an average middle order.

I suspect both England and SA will lose their semi finals, to India and either Australia or New Zealand. I wouldn't be surprised to see NZ beat Australia and secure 2nd in Group 2. Australia haven't got a good enough bowling attack, as explosive as their batting is.

 

Agree with a lot of this Messi, but I'd be careful with the Windies.

[potus]

Very in-depth preview, thanks for that. I think you may be over-estimating the West Indies somewhat though.

 

I feel the West Indies along with Pakistan and England have a good game in them once every four matches but that's just not consistent enough to compete over a whole tournament against the likes of Australia, India, New Zealand and South Africa, who have a good game three times out of every four matches.

 

One of the first cricket matches I ever saw was Chris Gayle's famous record-breaking IPL innings - in 2013 if I remember correctly -  but I haven't seen him perform to any sort of a level for a long time. I don't really see why he's an opener, surely someone with his power fits the bill of a Maxwell/Buttler/Dhoni etc etc who comes in much further down the order to smash the sixes? I don't think that he has the game to build a score with singles and fours.

Edited March 10, 2016 by potus

[Fader]

6.5pts Zimbabwe to have more sixes than Scotland 8/13 bet365

Far better betting lineup and a team that managed just half the amount of sixes that zimbabwe managed in the first match 

[Mirage]

1pt South Africa to win tournament @ 11/2 with Skybet
1pt South Africa to win Group 1 @ 15/8 with BetVictor

South Africa have all of the ingredients to go far in this competition. I think they’ve been put in the easier of the two groups so should be more than able to swat aside a transitional Sri Lanka, a West Indies side without some of their big names and an England team who they’ve just beaten 2-0 at home.

Nine of South Africa’s probable starting eleven have IPL experience so these conditions shouldn’t be a problem. In de Villiers, Amla/de Kock and du Plessis they have a powerful top three and an in-form Miller lurks down the order fully capable of finishing an innings. Tahir is one of the best spinners in the world at the moment whilst Rabada has shown no signs of being overawed by occasions in his fledgling career. Add those to Steyn and you have a triple threat that will rival everyone else’s bowling attack.

South Africa have just lost a home series to Australia but that doesn’t concern me – if anything I’m happy because the price has remained value, if not increased. That series was used to experiment with the top two and with the bowling attack whilst a few changes were made in the middle order too. There were enough big performances to leave me confident that they will go to India in good spirits.

This side has an abundance of talent with the bat and enough variation with the ball to cause sides problems. 11/2 could look very big very early in the tournament. The 15/8 on them to win the group also looks very big.

[Mirage]

1pt India to win Group 2 @ 13/8 with Stan James

This price looks huge. I’m not sure it needs much justification as they come here following another Asia Cup win and with a side packed full of talent. They’ve been consistently good in T20s for a while now and their side are more than used to the pressure their nation will place upon their shoulders. Australia have just beat South Africa in South Africa but their bowling attack, Faulkner apart, concerns me – they lack a quality spinner and potentially another pace bowler. New Zealand look short of a batsman and a bowler and Pakistan could be a lively outsider or lose every game. Whilst the odds on them to win the tournament look a bit tight, I’m very surprised that India aren’t around 5/4-6/4 to win the group.

[Mirage]

0.5pt e/w J. Bumrah to be top tournament bowler @ 20/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-4)
0.5pt e/w D. Steyn to be top tournament bowler @ 33/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-4)

I’m confident that India and South Africa will go far in this tournament so it’s logical to go with bowlers from their sides at prices I believe offer value.

Jasprit Bumrah comes in to this off the back of a successful Asia Cup – taking six wickets and doing well when given the ball in the latter overs. The expectation on this India side will be huge but Bumrah has enough talent around him in the bowling attack to ensure that he isn’t carrying his side’s hopes on his shoulders. This will be the first time some batsmen have faced him so that element of surprise could catch some out. He’s only young and has relatively little experience but the success so far in his career and his ability to outfox batsmen lead me to believe 20/1 is a little big.

On the other end of the experience scale is Dale Steyn. We all know he’s one of the best bowlers in the world and that is partly because he has bundles of experience of pressure situations. Steyn has been a consistently high performer in the IPL over the years so knowledge of the conditions isn’t an issue and although he’s not played a great deal lately, he had a couple of run-outs vs Australia and came through those ok. In a side that should go far, Steyn should be up there challenging for the top wicket-taker title.

[Mirage]

0.5pt e/w F. du Plessis to be top tournament batsman @ 33/1 with William Hill (1/4 odds 1-4)
0.5pt e/w G. Maxwell to be top tournament batsman @ 100/1 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-4)

Both of these men had good series when coming up against each other in South Africa and I fancy them to carry on that form.

Faf du Plessis topped his side’s runscorer chart vs Australia and you’d think he’s guaranteed a bat in every match he plays here. As captain he won’t lose his place and at number three he should get plenty of balls to face on more than one occasion. He’s one of many that come in to this tournament with very good knowledge of Indian conditions – he’s played in the IPL since 2011. Good form and guaranteed time at the crease make this price look very good.

Glenn Maxwell finished the series against South Africa in good touch. He was at the crease when the winning runs were scored in the series decider and his partnership with David Warner in the second match set them up for victory. Australia play at the home ground of KXIP twice and that suits Maxwell nicely since it’s his home IPL ground. At number five, facing enough balls could be an issue but with his talent he may only need one occasion of getting in early for him to register a big score.  He’s more than capable of scoring quickly at the end of an innings so he should be able to accumulate plenty of runs in that role. Despite the risk of him not getting much time at the crease, 100/1 seems far too big for a man in this kind of form and with this kind of talent.

[BigMozzyDog]

17 hours ago, potus said:

Very in-depth preview, thanks for that. I think you may be over-estimating the West Indies somewhat though.

 

I feel the West Indies along with Pakistan and England have a good game in them once every four matches but that's just not consistent enough to compete over a whole tournament against the likes of Australia, India, New Zealand and South Africa, who have a good game three times out of every four matches.

 

One of the first cricket matches I ever saw was Chris Gayle's famous record-breaking IPL innings - in 2013 if I remember correctly -  but I haven't seen him perform to any sort of a level for a long time. I don't really see why he's an opener, surely someone with his power fits the bill of a Maxwell/Buttler/Dhoni etc etc who comes in much further down the order to smash the sixes? I don't think that he has the game to build a score with singles and fours.

I get what you mean, but I just think they have more big game players than other similar sides. Players who are successful in the biggest competitions, like the IPL and BBL.

The Gayle thing is an odd one, because he is less prolific, but he has to open. Even when he smoked his 100 off 36, he took half a dozen to get going. He's not like Maxwell who can go from ball one. The big man always needs a few. That said, he's far too short in all the outright markets. Dwayne Bravo is their x-factor man.

[Fader]

2pts Oman to beat Holland 5/2 Ladbrokes
3tps Z.Maqsood Player Performance - 34 & Over Evens Bet365 
2pts K.Ansari top Oman bowler 3/1 Bet365
0.5pts Z.Maqsood Man Of The Match 11/1 Bet365 
These two played in a Qualifier in July and Oman won that day. They looked decent against Ireland and although Ireland pretty much gave it away there was still a few stand out performances for Oman. I'm taking Oman at big odds but also, Ansari had a big performance not only last time these met (he took 4 wickets) but also against Ireland (he took 3 wickets) I'm also taking player performance on Maqsood as in the qualifiers he bowled abit (took 3 wickets in one match) and played 6 overs in 3 matches, he also opens for Oman and can grab a catch or two so the 34 could be covered here. Also going a point on MOTM Maqsood as it's normally someone with the bat and if he gets a few wickets too he could take this.

[Fader]

looks like an abandoned match

[Fader]

not sure if it will go ahead of not, but two for the 2pm game 

2pts Al Amin top Bangledesh bowler 3/1 Bet365
2pts S, Al -Hasan top Bangledesh bowler 10/3 Bet365
I'll be surprised if it isn't one or the other. Both got two wickets in the previous match and with the damn conditions the ball is going to turn and that's perfect for the fast bowlers and spinners here. Hoping Ireland bat first.

[Fader]

1pt S.Al Hasan Man Of The Match 10/1 Bet365
I will take small point on this too as he has the capability of being a match winner. Bowls, bats fairly high up ect...

[potus]

Donkey batting from Ireland, donkey betting from me. I've lost a lot of money on them not completing that simple run chase. 

[Fader]

2pts India to win the T20 world cup AND Sharma top batsman 20/1 Skybet
I'm going with Sharma and India too as he is in some awesome form. I'm convinced India are going to win and if they are going to someone is going to be up there with the top batsman you'd imagine. 

4pts India to win Group 2  5/4 Skybet
India to win the group for me. Not too much reasoning needed here as you only have to look at the quality they have which makes them favourite for the title

1pt Bumrah top tournament bowler 20/1 Skybet
Ashwin at 8/1 and Bumrah at 20/1. Odds seem alittle too wide apart considering Bumrah has taken more wickets as of late in there warm-ups. 

2pts Alex Hales top England Batsman 5/2 Skybet
I'm going for Hales to be our top batsman. I think he plays the spin best and looking at our warm up games he seems to be in abit of form too.

2pts Kane Williamson top New Zealand batsman 5/2 Skybet
I'm going for Kane to be NZ top batsman. Again, good form coming into this and I only see Guptil as his main opposition for this bet to come in.

2pts H.Amla top S Africa batsman 7/2 Skybet
Form again, Amla is looking a good shout for top batsman of the tournament let alone his country so the 7/2 looks a good price to me.

2pts  A.Rashid top England Bowler 5/2 Skybet
I believe spin will be king in this tournament so I only see our top bowler being Rashid or Ali and for me, Rashid looks more likely to have the more overs.