South Africa vs Australia T20 Series March 4th - March 9th

[Mirage]

1pt South Africa to win the series 2-1 @ 13/8 with Coral

1pt Faf du Plessis to be the top South African series run scorer @ 9/2 with Bet365

1pt Imran Tahir to be the top South African series bowler @ 11/4 with William Hill

With the T20 World Cup just around the corner, these two teams will be hoping this series boosts confidence rather than hinders preparations. The series is a best-of-three event with games in Durban (March 4^th), Johannesburg (March 6^th) and Cape Town (March 9^th). At this stage the weather looks clear for all three games.

South Africa come in to this game with a relatively settled squad and in good form after beating England 2-0 earlier this year. Their main selection dilemmas will surround the fitness of Steyn (i.e. when to play him and who he replaces) and the opening partnership. It looks as though two of de Kock, de Villiers and Amla will open and I wouldn’t rule out South Africa experimenting a little with all three. With the uncertaintly surrounding the top two, it could be a good time to look elsewhere in the top South African run scorer market. Faf du Plessis stands out as the value selection for me. He should come in at number 3 and played fairly well vs England (25 and 22 not out). At 9/2 it’s definitely worth a play on a man who should get a bat in every game.

At first glance Kyle Abbott looks a great price in the top South African bowler market but, with Steyn now fit, there is some doubt over how much he will play. Abbott has been an ever-present in South Africa’s side over their last 14 T20 games but Dale Steyn played in none of those. It does seem harsh to drop him after a good series versus England but, with the doubt over his place, I’m happy to look elsewhere. Imran Tahir is the market leader and I think the price of 11/4 represents a bit of value. Tahir was fantastic against England, picking up 5 wickets in total. He’s a guaranteed starter, comes in full of confidence and should get his full overs in in every game.

It’s hard to judge how Australia will go here as their last T20 series ended in a 3-0 defeat at home to India. They’ve made a lot of changes to the squad that faced Indian and have appointed Steve Smith as captain. They’ve certainly got the talent to win a game but it may take them time to gel so, for that reason, I’m happy to side with this well-oiled South African machine taking a 2-1 series victory.

Edited March 3, 2016 by Mirage
Title

[Mirage]

1st T20:

1pt K. Rabada to be the top South African bowler @ 7/2 with BoyleSports

1pt D. Miller to be the top South African batsman @ 11/1 with Paddy Power

South Africa are very strong at Durban – they won both T20s and both ODIs here in 2015 – but it’s hard to know how Australia will go due to the amount of changes they have made.

Past results here indicate that plenty of wickets should fall – only two of the last eight T20 and ODI innings have seen fewer than 7 wickets taken. Therefore, I think there is a bit of value lower down the order. Although both sides could look to use their full squads and make it a bit harder to predict who will line up, I do think there’s a good chance David Miller will get a bat. Miller played here for the Dolphins in the latest Ram Slam competition and scores of 36 and 70 in ODIs here last year indicate that he is more than comfortable returning in South African colours. There’s every chance that South Africa’s top order could steal the show but for the reasons outlined above, I’m happy to take Miller to put on another show.

Not many South Africans come in to this game with confidence higher than Kagiso Rabada. The youngster performed spectacularly vs England in multiple formats and last year he picked up a few wickets on this ground for his country. Pace bowlers tend to do well here and for many of the Australian side his bowling will be a new experience. I think 7/2 represents a bit of value.

Edited March 3, 2016 by BigMozzyDog
These are T20 games

[BigMozzyDog]

It will be interesting to see how the pitch is prepared. There's a school of thought that it'll be set up to turn as prep for the World Cup, but if it isn't, Rabada's a top shout.

Miller's a funny player for me, but he is a big price. The problem with being a number six in this SA side is facing enough balls. He's explosive, which is why he gets used late on, but it also explains why he's yet to get a T20I fifty in over 30 games.

Good luck though, it will certainly be a close game. I'm on Duminy at 8/1 and Tahir as top bowler at 7/2. 

[Mirage]

Great call on Tahir BMD

[BigMozzyDog]

Great call on Miller Mirage - Between us we had it nailed! 

[Mirage]

2nd T20:

1pt K. Rabada to be top South African bowler @ 7/2 with BoyleSports

I backed Rabada in this market in the first T20 and I'm more than happy to do so again at this price. He picked up two wickets in that game and should follow that up with another solid performance at his home ground. South Africa played England here in T20 and ODI matches earlier this year and Rabada chipped in with six wickets over the course of those two games.

Familiar surroundings, a rich run of form and a shaky Australian line-up are enough for me to give the youngster another chance to top his side's wicket column.

[Mirage]

Rabada shared the top-the wicket-taker prize. Now +8.25 points for the series with 3 bets unsettled going to Cape Town.

[Mirage]

3rd ODI:

1pt G. Maxwell to be top Australian runscorer at 8/1 with Skybet

We go in to the third and final T20 in good shape as all three outrights are still very much alive. We're effectively on South Africa to win the match at 13/8, du Plessis leads his side's runs chart and Tahir is a good performance away from topping the bowlers'.

Like Durban, past results indicate that wickets should fall. In the two T20s and one ODI here since the start of 2015, fourty of the sixty wickets fell with only one of the six innings seeing less than five bastmen sent packing. This makes the 8/1 on Glenn Maxwell to top score for Australia look a bit big. Maxwell and David Warner took Australia to victory last time out and the former's 75 will ensure he comes here feeling in good touch. We all know that Maxwell can be inconsistent but with wickets likely to fall he should get time to play himself in. 8/1 for a man in form and likely to get a bat looks too big to turn down.

[BigMozzyDog]

4pts South Africa to win at ⅘ with Coral.

 

Failing to defend 204 will be a worry for Faf du Plessis’ men, but they were up high at the Bullring, where a good score take some protecting.

 

They seem to have found a talisman in Kagiso Rabada. The young seamer hurls it down at 150 clicks, and is the epitomy of the fact that variation isn’t everything. Infact it is the hosts’ most changeable bowlers who could be their achilles heal at the World Cup. David Wiese and Chris Morris are hittable.

Morris in particular could learn from Rabada. With the ability to touch 90 mph, there is little better than a top yorker. It might be going out of the game a little, but that is only because a cutter is the easy option.

All that said, it seems that SA have the better balance to their side, without soley picking bowlers to bolster the lower order. It is that philosophy that will cost England progression from their group at the World Cup.

Both of these two sides have form men, but in the last game Shane Watson used a lot of balls batting with a toothpick. He looked truly dreadful. As did Steve Smith, whose fidgetting is fast becoming a problem. His frenetic knock can do little to inspire confidence.

Yes they won the game, but it only came as a result of two of their best players launching a rescue operation.

The Maxwell/Warner partnership has set this series alight, but the side that wins here could set the World Cup alight. A big score by the right player and BOOM. You’re in business. This short form is all about confidence and momentum.

This is an extremely close one, but we’re just about going with the hosts, who have shown more so far. They are contenders for the big one next week and could go into that with a big boost.

Full preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/cricket/south-africa-vs-australia-tips-two-serious-teams-in-one-serious-world-cup-warm-up-2016030801 

[Mirage]

An Australia win meant that the series score outright lost. Rabada struck with at the death to deny Tahir the number one wicket-taker spot for his side but the dead-heat still brings in a profit. du Plessis managed to bring in his outright although Miller did make it a bit too close for comfort. All of this, minus the one point loser in today's game, means a healthy final profit of +14.63 points.