February 29 - March 6

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Back Daniela Hantuchova to beat Kurumi Nara for a 7/10 stake at 2.60 with Unibet

Back Alexandra Panova to beat Zhu Lin for a 7/10 stake at 1.67 with BetVictor

Fancy two first round bets over in Malaysia. Hantuchova is a bad match-up for Nara and the latter isn't even playing all that well nowadays, so the 2.60 that's on offer looks like value to me, while Panova should simply be too strong for Zhu Lin.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/wta-kuala-lumpur-tips-eugenie-bouchard-hoping-to-shine-in-malaysia-2016022803

[CzechPunter]

Back Caroline Garcia to win WTA Monterrey for a 3/10 stake at 7.50 with BetVictor

Back Alison Van Uytvanck (-2.5) to beat Irina Falconi for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365

Back Yanina Wickmayer to beat Johanna Larsson for a 7/10 stake at 1.67 with BetVictor

Garcia made it to the finals here last year and I think that she could go far once again, she's made some progress since then at least. Also fancy Van Uytvanck over Falconi for match-up and for reasons, while Wickmayer - in the current form - should be too strong for Larsson as well.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/wta-monterrey-day-one-tips-wozniacki-and-garcia-lead-the-line-up-in-mexico-2016022804

[Fader]

2pts E/W S.Errani to win WTA Monterrey 10/1 Bet365
Going for Errani here. She has the hardest route but she is the highest ranked player in this, yet she is 10/1. She has recent success winning the Dubai tournament, and she got to the semi final here last year, before losing to the eventual winner, Timea. Great chance for her to get more titles under her belt.

[Fader]

4pts K.Flipkens to beat F.Schiavone 2-0 6/4 Coral
35 years old now and ranked on the edge of the top 100, I think Flipkens should win this without too much fuss. Everything just points to a straight sets victory for Flipkens. The rank, the age, the fact Schiavone just has won Rio playing 5 matches in 5 days and 3 of those being in 3 sets only a week ago. The head-2-head which shows Flipkens winning the last hard court match last year 6-2 6-4. In-fact Flipkens has won the last 3 on the hard between these two. 

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR WTA MONTERREY TOMORROW: PUIG-ZACARIAS 2:0 SETS @ 1.3 on pinnaclesports / betfair
Expect it to be an easy win for the very consistent Puig against a local wild-card player

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Sara Errani (-4.5) to beat Magdalena Rybarikova for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power

Back Kirsten Flipkens (-2.5) to beat Francesca Schiavone for a 7/10 stake at 1.82 with Unibet

Back Timea Babos (-3.5) to beat Polona Hercog for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Bet365

Three favourites for me tomorrow. Errani should be able to crush Rybarikova, who hasn't played since the Australian Open due to injury issues. Flipkens has a great record over Schiavone on hard courts, so she should be able to get the job done as well, especially since Schiavone will have to make the switch from clay to hard. Finally, Babos is playing much better tennis than Hercog nowadays, so I think that she'll finally get that one elusive win over the Slovenian.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/wta-monterrey-day-two-tips-can-errani-continue-her-good-form-in-mexico--2016022903

[Fader]

5.5pts R.Vinci Vs K.Chang - Under 19.5 games 10/11 William Hill
Price seems good considering the difference in quality between the two. Understand that Chang is on her home turf, which is probably why the price is a good one. These kind of games tend to be a close first set followed by an easy second. Never played together before but Id expect Vinci to be too much. 

[Fader]

Vinci just doing the bare minimum to win. Cheers Vinci.

[Baggas7]

21 minutes ago, Fader said:

Vinci just doing the bare minimum to win. Cheers Vinci.

If that she may not get out of this one 

[Baggas7]

7/4 on Chang in play looks decent right now 

[potus]

47 minutes ago, Fader said:

Vinci just doing the bare minimum to win. Cheers Vinci.

What's happened there? World-ranked number 153 demolishing number 10? How? 

[ogii55]

And Vinci is in top form recently, while Chang never beat a Top 30 player in her career and was in very bad shape since the start of the year. Huge surprise here if not something else, adding to the fact that Vinci won the first....

[liquidglass]

Zacarias vs Puig

This in itself presents a classic conundrum of a matchup to try to work out. On bare stats, one would expect Puig to win just as Vinci was expected to win easily earlier. However If the outcome of a matchup can always be figured out by stats alone, then the bookies will not be in business today. I always tend to compare stats against the surrounding circumstances and other external factors like market forces - market forces being very different from market moves. It's a subject that covers a wide spectrum of imponderables. Firstly Marcela Zacarias and Victoria Rodriguez are the local darlings of tennis in mexico with home advantage always being very advantageous to them. I believe Zacarias is a good player whose chances will eventually come as she makes the required progress mentally. She is better than Rodriguezwho I also believe will develop soon.

Puig has lost 2 of her last 3 and in current form should be nowhere near that ridiculous price 1/25. Here are three important factors that must be considered here; 1. The fact that Rodiguez played well last week against Wickmayer winning a set in the processes, and knowing Zacarias is a better player, I expect her to challenge what I perceive as an average Puig today. 2. This has always worked for me almost 90% of the time where I now consider it a very reliable pointer. Puig opened at 1/10 and she is now 1/25 which is a very strong indication that Zacarias must play well. Anytime an opening price just moves wildly for no apparent reason, back the reverse in any positive way. In fact any price shortening over 3points or just continues to shorten before a match is highly negative. Interestingly enough Zacarias herself has not been playing well but the tournament handlers have decided to put her in prime slot for the last match of the day. They do not just reach decisions like that over the drop of a hat. If Zacarias has been chosen over Rodriguez for the last match even considering that it should be Rodriguez more likely to play well after last week, then the signs for Zacarias must be positive. This is not to say that Zacarias will win; far from that. It is simply that within the wide gulf of alternatives that would support a profittable bet over 17.5 games really looks tasty and Zacarias to win a set. The handicap of +6.5 may be risky as she may play a tight first set and leave holes to be exploited by puig. Over 17.5 games should be the big play large. I expect her to do a lot more. Good luck!

[Lawrence0831]

2 hours ago, ogii55 said:

And Vinci is in top form recently, while Chang never beat a Top 30 player in her career and was in very bad shape since the start of the year. Huge surprise here if not something else, adding to the fact that Vinci won the first....

Chang beat Safina when she was number 1 and she also beat Stosur when she was top 10.

[Fader]

3 hours ago, potus said:

What's happened there? World-ranked number 153 demolishing number 10? How? 

Very strange result. I honestly believe Vinci didn't give a toss. At her age, I guess she picks and chooses the tournaments she wants to take seriously whether that be consciously or subconsciously.  

[Fader]

2pts P.Hercog to beat T.Babos 6/4 Bet365
I'm taking this purely on value. Hercog shouldn't be a 6/4 dog here. Head-2-head she is winning 3-0. On the hard 1-0 only last year. Hercog is on a poor run of results granted but she hasn't been losing to too many lower ranked players. In my opinion, Babos is only a slight favourite here and I think it will go all the way, hence the punt on the underdog. 

[four-leaf]

Julia Glushko to beat Alexandra Dulgheru for a 7/10 stake at 1.70 with Pinnaclesports

Just like Rybarikova Dulgheru has'nt played since Australian open and it may affect her here. Glushko has stormed through the qualifiers and may be a bit to tough for Dulgheru in her comeback match. They have never played eachother before and I see Dulgheru as a bit better on clay then she is on hard since her two titles have both come on clay. She was a runner up in Kuala Lumpur last season but still has opted to come and play in Mexico and that may only be seen as preparation for Indian wells.

Edited March 1, 2016 by four-leaf

[Fader]

Just finished a workout so I've done no history on it atall but Gibbs on a handicap looks a good pick.

Kovinic is a clay courter really and Gibbs much prefers the hard courts. 

Edited March 1, 2016 by Fader

[CzechPunter]

Back Caroline Garcia (-4.5) to beat Petra Martic for a 7/10 stake at 1.82 with Unibet

Back Dominika Cibulkova (-4.5) to beat Anett Kontaveit for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Will be going for all the big favourites tomorrow in the end, big gaps between Garcia/Martic and Cibulkova/Kontaveit in my opinion and the difference should tell. Also hoping for Errani to win easily naturally.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/wta-monterrey-day-three-tips-garcia-and-cibulkova-join-the-fray-on-wednesday-2016030104

[Fader]

4 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Julia Glushko to beat Alexandra Dulgheru for a 7/10 stake at 1.70 with Pinnaclesports

Just like Rybarikova Dulgheru has'nt played since Australian open and it may affect her here. Glushko has stormed through the qualifiers and may be a bit to tough for Dulgheru in her comeback match. They have never played eachother before and I see Dulgheru as a bit better on clay then she is on hard since her two titles have both come on clay. She was a runner up in Kuala Lumpur last season but still has opted to come and play in Mexico and that may only be seen as preparation for Indian wells.

Like this I'm going the same.  Good luck 

[four-leaf]

48 minutes ago, Fader said:

Like this I'm going the same.  Good luck 

No matches since Aussie O for Dulgheru who is doing a "beyond hope" bad performance having got broken 4 straight times so far at 2-1 in second set.

 

Edit: Now 5 straight breaks for Glushko who's leading 4-1 in second.

Edited March 1, 2016 by four-leaf

[Fader]

1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

No matches since Aussie O for Dulgheru who is doing a "beyond hope" bad performance having got broken 4 straight times so far at 2-1 in second set.

That's how we like it. Hoping Flipkens can do something similar against ageing Schiavone to end a good day.

[four-leaf]

Flipkens has'nt dominated in any way, she's just been better at deciding moments like saving 4 break points and converting 1 break point. Not mutch difference between them so far. Flipkens has also been better on second serve then on her first serve.

[four-leaf]

Was only a matter of time before Schiavone would find a break as she goes 2-0 up in second set. Hope she won't consolidate it though but even if she does she might not win the set but it would take her a long way.

[four-leaf]

What a great day. Just gonna be greater with Errani today winning easily.

[Fader]

5pts C.Wozniacki Vs O.Govortsova (Under 19.5 games) 4/5 Paddypower
I don't see a problem for Woz here. Govortsova is a clay courter and up against a very good hard courter, I see Woz winning in straight sets. Not a whole lot of value around on this match but the under 19.5 looks good enough for me to take. Last year here, there was none of these players but the year prior Govortsova went out in round 1 whilst Woz got to the semi-final losing to eventual winner, hottie, Ana Ivanovic. 

4pts P.Hercog to beat H.Watson 11/10 Bwin
Played three head-2-heads. Hercog leads 2-1. 1-1 on the hard. Watson won the most recent hardcourt match back in 2012 however, for me I believe Watson is moving backwards nowadays, not forward. She is super inconsistent. She has won 3 of her 6 this year, where as Hercog has won 3 out of 8 on the hard. Difference is Hercog has lost to players such as Azarenka, Sloane Stephens, Lisicki and Jankovic. 

[liquidglass]

Garcia Vs Martic This one looks hard to predict especially not knowing which Garcia might turn up with Miami just around the corner. Still Garcia has not really been in any sort of form to expect the standard of tennis that will be required of her to beat Martic. Petra has already played three games here and clearly in rhythmic groove. I strongly believe that she will be very competitive. She has a very useful garcia-like serve which should keep her well in the game and covering the handicap easily. I am torn between her covering the handicap of +4.5 and winning a set. Prediction: Martic to win with +4.5 games with a more than realistic chance of winning a set. Good luck all!!

[CzechPunter]

Back Pauline Parmentier to beat Monica Puig for a 7/10 stake at 3.00 with Unibet

Back Christina McHale to beat Nicole Gibbs for a 7/10 stake at 1.78 with Unibet

Going with McHale due to match-up reasons tomorrow and I'll also back Parmentier in what I believe will be a fairly balanced contest. Puig isn't much better than her in any department imo and Parmentier is on a great run at the moment.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/wta-monterrey-day-four-tips-can-parmentier-upset-puig--2016030205

[liquidglass]

Hercog is one lazy lousy player. How did she win a match here?