Ashtee Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Hawthorn v Carlton Carlton @ 5.00 & +33.5 @ 1.93 I don't always like to move so early but think it's worth the gamble that Hawks won't trim all three from their long list of inexperienced players while, at same time, Blues shed a couple of very their best. If that happenned I still think Carlton are a realistic chance. As it is now, Carlton have come up well for team strength. Dominant bigs forward are often a key factor in these games and Blues appear to have the advantage there. Refreshed enthusiasm from bringing in new coach and coming off poor season together with lots of players in the 20-50 game bracket ready to show out. Hawthorn obviously know the ground but will be a little behind in preparation and apetite and the fact remains that they haven't done a lot lately, not winning since October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 i liked carlton til i read this morning murphy probably isnt playing, now not so sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 I was aware he's out but still like them a lot. Hawks 11-players under 5-games, Carlton 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 played fremantle -40.5. not sure they will score enough to win big but the difference in the strength of sides looks massive to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Port +28.5 missing many of their best but still a decent looking side to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 On 20/2/2016, 9:36:33, binomial said: Port +28.5 missing many of their best but still a decent looking side to me. Good get! Usually wise to not be too carried away with Longmire week one squads. Torrential downpour LQ wasn't such a bad thing either. Gold Coast -15.5 @ 1.92 Will have a superior more experienced squad that should run out the game stronger. Both are off dissapointing seasons, which more likely will producer truer efforts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 very lucky, pretty much the three best players dropped out for port making the side look very ordinary. leaning WC and GC today. adealide side doesn't look elite to me and the game is shortened length due to heat making the big line bigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 off west coast. adelaide final team looks alot stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Collingwood +19.5 $1.98 not that confident, but Geelong only look marginally stronger to me. hobbs666 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Port -36.5 Richmond -6.5 Thinking Richmond will be keener after poor showing against fremantle. hobbs666 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
langdon19 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Richmond now out to -12.5, I'll grab the Hawks at $2.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 6 hours ago, binomial said: Port -36.5 Richmond -6.5 Thinking Richmond will be keener after poor showing against fremantle. Joined you on Richmond, only on later at -10.5 @ 1.90. Hawks with six of best eight/ten out, more rookies and a little behind in prep. Might find Richmond depth & quality too much to handle. hobbs666 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
langdon19 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Nice get guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Managed to get Carlton 2.35 & +5.5 @ 1.91 before it tumbled in. Will be interesting to see what we get from Essendon first up but feel Blues are entitled favorite on home deck and with run under belt. Will have made adjustments to not quite executing on the game plan last week, while Dons first up under their new coach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 going the other way. i cant understand what carlton are doing naming such a rubish side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 GWS @ 2.60 & +11.5 @ 1.92 Despite first appearances, GWS will most likely have a distinct quality edge across the final squads. Tight Drummoyne Oval may tend to better suit Sydney and last week's slack effort will be something they'll, at some point, look to improve upon but GWS still deserve favortism IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 haven't looked into this yet, but played WC -63.5 today. probably asking for trouble bit they racked up some healthy margins last season at home against way better squads than this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Playing: NM +5.5 over 129.5 1.5u - seems like a one team score despite shortened game to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 5, 2016 Author Share Posted March 5, 2016 North Melbourne @ 2.18 & +5.5 @ 1.91 Somewhat stronger more experienced squad and North likely to be aiming to be better placed to bank early wins this season - two week break break helps their program. Both should have similar rotation plans in these conditions, thus diminishing that bit of guess work. Collingwood were very much on-song first up, so no certainty that carry's through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 6, 2016 Author Share Posted March 6, 2016 Melbourne @ 1.95 Took the price last night and should deservadly plummett much lower than current 1.80 given WBD have ommitted four of best players from final squad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 Port Adelaide @ 2.10 & +4.5 @ 1.90 Obviously these prices have gone but Port should be a clear cut favorite IMO Carlton +34.5 @ 1.90 Should see improved intensity from both, which is why Sydney winning strongly is justifiable, only that Carlton's squad depth means winning big will be diffulct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 Gold Coast @ 4.00 & +24.5 @ 2.00 In the local home conditions Gold Coast's squad should be a lot tougher to beat than this price suggests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 playing the under on the gold coast. been a bit of rain and will be warm so hoping it will be greasy conditions and tough handling like it often is there. this is feel / guess rather than science though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 11, 2016 Author Share Posted March 11, 2016 11 minutes ago, binomial said: this is feel / guess rather than science though. Best way to do it, sometimes! Am really surprised (apart from reputation factor) that Adelaide are so short. Looks like humidity will be really high, so Suns, who have impressed IMO, could cash in on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 well i was pretty much right about the conditions and very much wrong about the amount of scoring. today: Collingwood +9.5 Fremantle v Geelong over 126.5 thinking about NM +12.5 and NM game over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 12, 2016 Author Share Posted March 12, 2016 The total went into an unexpected free fall on you after HT but still seemed the right bet. Two experienced Gold Coast players trimmed off that squad seemed to cost the cover but that's what can happen if electing to secure an early deal. I can't seperate these two in the early game. Took Collingwood yesterday @ 2.53 & +9.5 @ 1.93 Hawks - Roos seems evens as well, IMO. North Melbourne @ 2.60 @ +15.5 @ 1.90 (taken yesterday). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crowbot Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Great stuff Ashtee for starting the season off good work been busy with work. Happy for you to start the Round threads so please by all means do so and dont wait for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 12, 2016 Author Share Posted March 12, 2016 back, crow. Just unpin last years GF thread and we all should be happy to go. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crowbot Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 1 hour ago, Ashtee said: back, crow. Just unpin last years GF thread and we all should be happy to go. Thanks! Cheers Ash I do like GWS today, picked them earlier in the week at $1.55 for 2u. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 13, 2016 Author Share Posted March 13, 2016 Good pick, crow. I would have taken that price myself had I been ready in time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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