2016 AFL SEASON - NAB CHALLENGE

[Ashtee]

Hawthorn v Carlton

Carlton @ 5.00 & +33.5 @ 1.93

I don't always like to move so early but think it's worth the gamble that Hawks won't trim all three from their long list of inexperienced players while, at same time, Blues shed a couple of very their best. If that happenned I still think Carlton are a realistic chance. As it is now, Carlton have come up well for team strength. Dominant bigs forward are often a key factor in these games and Blues appear to have the advantage there. Refreshed enthusiasm from bringing in new coach and coming off poor season together with lots of players in the 20-50 game bracket ready to show out. Hawthorn obviously know the ground but will be a little behind in preparation and apetite and the fact remains that they haven't done a lot lately, not winning since October.

 

 

 

[binomial]

i liked carlton til i read this morning murphy probably isnt playing, now not so sure.

[Ashtee]

I was aware he's out but still like them a lot. Hawks 11-players under 5-games, Carlton 5.

[binomial]

played fremantle -40.5. not sure they will score enough to win big but the difference in the strength of sides looks massive to me.

 

[binomial]

Port +28.5

missing many of their best but still a decent looking side to me. 

 

[Ashtee]

On 20/2/2016, 9:36:33, binomial said:

Port +28.5

missing many of their best but still a decent looking side to me. 

 

Good get! Usually wise to not be too carried away with Longmire week one squads. Torrential downpour LQ wasn't such a bad thing either.

Gold Coast -15.5 @ 1.92

Will have a superior more experienced squad that should run out the game stronger. Both are off dissapointing seasons, which more likely will producer truer efforts.

[binomial]

very lucky, pretty much the three best players dropped out for port making the side look very ordinary.

leaning WC and GC today.

adealide side doesn't look elite to me and the game is shortened length due to heat making the big line bigger.

[binomial]

off west coast. adelaide final team looks alot stronger.

[binomial]

Collingwood +19.5  $1.98

not that confident, but Geelong only look marginally stronger to me.

[binomial]

Port -36.5

Richmond -6.5

Thinking Richmond will be keener after poor showing against fremantle.

[langdon19]

Richmond now out to -12.5,  I'll grab the Hawks at $2.60

[Ashtee]

6 hours ago, binomial said:

Port -36.5

Richmond -6.5

Thinking Richmond will be keener after poor showing against fremantle.

Joined you on Richmond, only on later at -10.5 @ 1.90. Hawks with six of best eight/ten out, more rookies and a little behind in prep. Might find Richmond depth & quality too much to handle.

[langdon19]

Nice get guys.

[Ashtee]

Managed to get Carlton 2.35 & +5.5 @ 1.91 before it tumbled in. Will be interesting to see what we get from Essendon first up but feel Blues are entitled favorite on home deck and with run under belt. Will have made adjustments to not quite executing on the game plan last week, while Dons first up under their new coach.

[binomial]

going the other way. i cant understand what carlton are doing naming such a rubish side.

[Ashtee]

GWS @ 2.60 & +11.5 @ 1.92

Despite first appearances, GWS will most likely have a distinct quality edge across the final squads. Tight Drummoyne Oval may tend to better suit Sydney and last week's slack effort will be something they'll, at some point, look to improve upon but GWS still deserve favortism IMO.

[binomial]

haven't looked into this yet, but played WC -63.5 today.

probably asking for trouble bit they racked up some healthy margins last season at home against way better squads than this.

[binomial]

Playing:

NM +5.5

over 129.5 1.5u - seems like a one team score despite shortened game to me

[Ashtee]

North Melbourne @ 2.18 & +5.5 @ 1.91

Somewhat stronger more experienced squad and North likely to be aiming to be better placed to bank early wins this season - two week break break helps their program. Both should have similar rotation plans in these conditions, thus diminishing that bit of guess work. Collingwood were very much on-song first up, so no certainty that carry's through.

[Ashtee]

Melbourne @ 1.95

Took the price last night and should deservadly plummett much lower than current 1.80 given WBD have ommitted four of best players from final squad.

[Ashtee]

Port Adelaide @ 2.10 & +4.5 @ 1.90

Obviously these prices have gone but Port should be a clear cut favorite IMO

Carlton +34.5 @ 1.90

Should see improved intensity from both, which is why Sydney winning strongly is justifiable, only that Carlton's squad depth means winning big will be diffulct.

[Ashtee]

Gold Coast @ 4.00 & +24.5 @ 2.00

In the local home conditions Gold Coast's squad should be a lot tougher to beat than this price suggests.

 

[binomial]

playing the under on the gold coast. been a bit of rain and will be warm so hoping it will be greasy conditions and tough handling like it often is there.

this is feel / guess rather than science though.

[Ashtee]

11 minutes ago, binomial said:

this is feel / guess rather than science though.

Best way to do it, sometimes!

Am really surprised (apart from reputation factor) that Adelaide are so short. Looks like humidity will be really high, so Suns, who have impressed IMO, could cash in on it.

[binomial]

well i was pretty much right about the conditions and very much wrong about the amount of scoring.

today:

Collingwood +9.5

Fremantle v Geelong over 126.5

 

thinking about NM +12.5 and NM game over

[Ashtee]

The total went into an unexpected free fall on you after HT but still seemed the right bet.

Two experienced Gold Coast players trimmed off that squad seemed to cost the cover but that's what can happen if electing to secure an early deal.

I can't seperate these two in the early game. Took Collingwood yesterday @ 2.53 & +9.5 @ 1.93

Hawks - Roos seems evens as well, IMO. North Melbourne @ 2.60 @ +15.5 @ 1.90 (taken yesterday).

 

[crowbot]

Great stuff Ashtee for starting the season off good work been busy with work. Happy for you to start the Round threads so please by all means do so and dont wait for me.

[Ashtee]

back, crow.

Just unpin last years GF thread and we all should be happy to go. Thanks!

[crowbot]

1 hour ago, Ashtee said:

back, crow.

Just unpin last years GF thread and we all should be happy to go. Thanks!

Cheers Ash

I do like GWS today, picked them earlier in the week at $1.55 for 2u.

[Ashtee]

Good pick, crow. I would have taken that price myself had I been ready in time.