Sunday Racing -

[BillyHills]

Exeter goes ahead, loads of NR's which could lead to a strange dividend so worth a little dabble.

\

 

Tipped up The Eaglehaslanded for a race on Saturday but has chosen to run today instead so he can qualify for the Pertemp Final i imagine. Anyway he's well handicapped and should go close in the 3rd leg. Not a bad EW bet at 15/2.

Nap goes to Midnight Prayer (3.40), ran well at Warwick in similar ground and ought to bear these as long as he has recovered from that slog. We have a couple of long odds-on fav's and i wouldn't  be surprised if one of them got turned over in these conditions.

Black Hercules was really impressive at Warwick last time out and i hope he wins at Navan (4.00) He's 10/11 and I've doubled him up with Arsenal to beat Leicester. (9/4 Double).

 

[beaker1]

3.10 Exeter – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) 

Harry Fry’s Unowhatimeanharry has been rapidly progressive this term winning his first three starts since joining the yard at the beginning of the season. Following two handicap successes, the eight-year-old justified favouritism in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham in December and it would seem foolish to rule him out of going in again. He is now 15lb higher than he was at the start of the season but the way in which he has performed in handicap company suggests that may not be enough to stop him. You would have to have a slight question mark over the heavy ground he is likely to encounter here and at the likely prices, it might be best to look elsewhere.

Paul Nicholls has always had high hopes for The Eaglehaslanded and whilst he has yet to show his full potential, there have been signs in his last couple of runs that he is starting to get the hang of things. He won over course and distance back in October when showing a few signs of temperament before finishing a close second to another progressive horse at Chepstow. He stayed on well to finish fourth at Cheltenham in December and looks to have a good chance off the same mark. He may well need a stiffer test than this as he is a strong stayer but he is likely to be doing his best work late on and can make the frame.

Two runners who catch the eye are Alan King’s The Tourard Man and Salmanazar with the last named of most interest having won impressively in similar conditions at Market Rasen last month. He seemed to relish every yard of the 2m4f that day so the extra couple of furlongs should suit and he has plenty of form on heavy ground. The Alan King stable continue to fire in the winners left, right and centre and this eight-year-old looks likely to be thereabouts at the business end here.

However there could be a handicap blot in this race in the shape of SCOOP THE POT who gets in at the foot of the weights here off a mark of 124. The six-year-old has only had three starts over hurdles to date but he ran a fine race in the handicap won by Unowhatimeanharry at Cheltenham in November. He finished an eye-catching third that day and has not been seen since, presumably in a bid to keep his mark as it is. He gets a massive pull in the weights this time around with Harry Fry’s horse and when you consider he was only beaten just over five lengths, it doesn’t take too much imagination to see him running well. We saw the JP McManus silks carried to victory in one of these qualifiers last weekend and I fancy we will see those famous silks carried back into the Winners’ Enclosure for a second week running.

Advice

SCOOP THE POT – 2pts win

 
3.40 Exeter – The Bathwick Tyres Veterans’ Handicap Chase 

Since the inauguration of the Veterans’ Chase Series, these races have become more competitive and made them much better betting races to boot.

Venetia Williams is renowned for her work with the older generation and she has a double-pronged attack on the opening leg of the 2016 series. Shangani looks the pick of her duo on jockey bookings with Aidan Coleman in the plate but he would need a bounce back to form to feature here. He opened this campaign with a pleasing effort in defeat at Taunton but has since disappointed rather, failing to finish twice when well behind and tailing off when fifth of seven at Kempton back in January. The handicapper has eventually relented though and dropped him 3lb which will help but three miles in heavy ground may stretch his stamina given he has never won over that far in the past. Her other runner Howard’s Legacy is an interesting contender now only 1lb higher than his last winning mark. He will surely strip fitter for his seasonal reappearance at Ludlow in December and will be well suited to the heavy ground that faces him here.

Golden Chieftain arrives in arguably the best form on the back of his Somerset National win last time out. Colin Tizzard’s stayer had endured a prolonged spell in the doldrums since landing the Festival Chase at Cheltenham in March 2013 but was back to somewhere near his best when landing the Southern National first time up. He stays well and handles testing conditions so should be in his element here but it remains to be seen whether he can defy a 7lb rise in the handicap at this stage of his career. Connections believe he could be a player in the Cheltenham race again this year so he must be a leading contender in this.

However, preference is for another Festival scorer and MIDNIGHT PRAYER is a strong fancy following his fine second in the Classic Chase at Warwick last month. The Alan King inmate landed the National Hunt Chase a couple of years ago and has returned this season in good heart. He ran a perfectly adequate race in a strong Newbury handicap on his return from a year off the track and backed that up with an improved effort in extremely testing conditions when runner-up behind Russe Blanc at Warwick. The Cheltenham Festival has been all but ruled out with the Grand National his main aim this campaign. With the weights for the Aintree marathon being announced on Thursday, it is more than likely that he would need to win this in order to bolster his chances of gaining a place in the big one in April. A 4lb rise for his latest run looks perfectly acceptable and the fact that Champion Jockey-elect Richard Johnson is steering can only be a plus.

Advice

MIDNIGHT PRAYER – 2pts win

[Trotter]

Something to look out for.......

I put up my EW Nap of the Day last night. It was Bound Hill in the 2.10 at Exeter........best price 50/1

Now it's 100/1 with Bet365 and Betvictor and 66/1 with all the others

I'll be interested to see how the market moves nearer the race........the assumption is that all the prices will be slashed as bookies hedge their EW liabilities

I'd be surprised if it doesn't come in to at least 33/1

 

At the moment there are 3 horses best priced 5/4, 11/8 and 6/1

The 4th favourite is currently best priced 33/1

All the other 100/1 and above

 

Let's see what happens !

 

(By the way I am incredibly pee'd off today........cricket, big footy matches, rugby, Sunday Supplement, ATR Sunday Forum, afternoon racing.........and my bloody Virgin TV Service is down........)

 

aah........it's just come back..........in time for the Sunday Forum........

[arsenalfh]

I've given the race a quick look and Bound Hill looks like he will improve in these conditions. After a quick look at the exchange markets he looks well worth a shot e/w at 100/1.

Good luck! 

[arsenalfh]

I had a look at the maiden hurdle at 2.00 at Navan. Stuccador has consistently disappointed over hurdles and can be taken on again. The win is likely to be fought out between Alamein and Automated who met at Gowran a couple of weeks ago. Alamein came out on top that day but he stole a few lengths off a slow gallop and he has a patchy profile overall. Automated was a good horse on the flat and is sure to improve from that debut effort over hurdles and looks a decent price at 5.00 on the exchange markets.

[Blazing Bailey]

Exeter 3.10 - The Eaglehaslanded 13/2 Bet365

 

I am going to go through this race by way of a process of elimination.

Dell Arca isnt in form and hasnt suggested he can win off this mark recently.

Padge has failed to get round on his last two starts chasing and whilst he was in decent form when last season, I think his mark is now going to be too high and in the handicappers grip.

The Tourard Man has a similar profile however he was far more exposed over hurdles. He is returning back to the small obstacles after falling over fences and wasnt in form over them anyway.

Unowhatimeanharry is the first horse to catch my eye. He looks as though he is on a winnable mark however I note that connections have said that soft ground was soft enough for him and whilst I do think he can win off this mark, I dont think he will run up to that mark under these conditions. I suspect he will use this race to get in to the Cheltenham race by finishing placed and he will be a live contender in March.

Salmanazar returned to form last time out when winning at Market Rasen. I was initially impressed by that run but he has such an inconsistent profile that it is hard to know what he will do next. He has won over fences on heavy over this trip but has never proven himself in the same conditions over hurdles. He certainly has a winning chance but I cant be confident that he will back up his last run.

Goodbye Dancer is another with a chance. He is proven in these conditions and would have finished closer to a progressive sort had he not clouted the last two hurdles. Stable had two winners yesterday and I can see him running well, it will just be a case of whether he is quite well enough handicapped to win.

The Eaglehaslanded is going to be my main bet. He hasnt run under these conditions however he looks like he would appreciate a slog and has run really well in two decent handicaps recently. Nicholls is still doing well with these type of horses in his yard and I can see him running a big race. I dont think he has masses in hand of his mark however, I can see this test suiting him perfectly.

I dont know what to make of West Approach. When I first saw him I thought he must have a great chance but his mark is probably high enough on what he has achieved. He could win but he would have to improve a fair bit, however that isnt out of the question. He has also struggled to put two good runs together.

Lady of Longstone isnt sure to appreciate this ground.

Lastly Scoop The Pot could be well handicapped and I would expect that he is, but he has enough to prove on this ground and at this trip and given his price he can be watched with an eye on the Cheltenham final if it is something he can qualify for as McManus seems to like having a couple of dozen to go to post.

[Blazing Bailey]

The ground at Exeter looks shocking... I think I will avoid betting on a meeting that has to pass an inspection on the day.

[arsenalfh]

9 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

I had a look at the maiden hurdle at 2.00 at Navan. Stuccador has consistently disappointed over hurdles and can be taken on again. The win is likely to be fought out between Alamein and Automated who met at Gowran a couple of weeks ago. Alamein came out on top that day but he stole a few lengths off a slow gallop and he has a patchy profile overall. Automated was a good horse on the flat and is sure to improve from that debut effort over hurdles and looks a decent price at 5.00 on the exchange markets.

Nice winner for Gordon Elliott. Seems like a nice horse to go hurdling with for the spring.