Premier League Darts 2016

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hard matches to call yesterday hence just the one. -3pts for the day. +72.5pts for thread

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Glasgow tonight. 

2pts G.Anderson -2.5 to beat A.Lewis 6/4 Bet365
2pts G.Anderson to win the match / get most 180s / Highest Checkout Vs A.Lewis 4/1 Skybet
I initially was looking to back Lewis here but then the more I looked into it the more I changed my mind. Yes, Gary is looking not at his best and yes, Lewis won the last match between these two. However, Gary has won 3 of the last 4 and has smashed Aidy in the last 3 premier league matches (7-4, 7-1, 7-3). Also, ofcourse we're in Scotland and I'm not sure Aidy performs too well with the crowd against him on the doubles. In Scotland over the last 2 years, Anderson has won 3 and drew 1 and last year here when beating Chizzy 7-5 he got a 108.22 average. Lewis, on the other hand has played 4 in Scotland last 2 years and won just 1 against Bunting last year who was largely a fish out of water in his first year. Last year, in Aberdeen these two met and Gary won 7-4 but interestingly with a lower average (which perhaps points to Aidys doubling when under pressure)

4pts J.Wade to win the match & get the highest checkout 5/4 Skybet
I fancy Wade to win here. Thornton is really struggling and Wade is a true grinder. Head-2-head in the Premier League shows 3 matches played and all won by Wade. Another big aspect in Wade so far in this Premier is his checkouts. Every week we're seeing him hit over 104 averages and so this really looks a nice price. I'm also going on the win/180/checkout bet like the Anderson one but I wont tip that as Thornton does have a knack of hitting 180s now and again.

4pts M.Van Gerwen to win the match & get the most 180s Vs P.Taylor 5/4 Skybet
I think Van Gerwen is just in Phils head right now. Even in the P/Champs when Taylor had a dart for 5-1 you just knew that Van Gerwen would come back. I see Van Gerwen winning again here and you'd think that almost certainly he'd get more 180s too so this bet just seems the obvious choice

2pts P. Wright to beat G.Anderson 9/4 Sportingbet
I will end the night with a small punt on Peter Wright. Scots against eachother should be an interesting end to the night and Peter Wright beat Anderson last time they played. In the Premier League it's a mixed bag really (2-1 Gary) but this bet mainly comes from a feeling. Wright has been playing well last few weeks and hitting high averages and still losing and also this match is very important for him because a loss would put him outside the top 4 I believe. 

2pts Accy - Wade, Van Gerwen and Chizzy to win - 9/2 Skybet boost

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well that could and should of been alot better than it was. Van Gerwen bet was 3 darts away from winning and it ends a draw. 

-2pts for the day. +70.5pts

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It's that time again, this week we are in Liverpool. Wade gets a day off today. Thornton gets two matches.

4pts M.Smith to win the match & have the most 180s (Vs R.Thornton) 2/1 Skybet
Kind of annoying that the odds on Smith have shortened as he was evens a few days ago and that small difference is enough for me to move away from the single win. I will instead attempt him to win and get the most 180s. Thornton has improved since the first few weeks but I think alittle bit resigned to the fact he is going out of this as he has Van Gerwen later in the night also. Smith will have the crowd on his side too being quite a local boy so I'm taking Smith

4pts G.Anderson to win the match and & have the highest checkout (Vs D.Chisnall) 11/8 Skybet
I think Anderson is slowly getting back into form and I fancy him to win this one. Chisnall just isn't playing well enough on the whole. Infact he faces a real threat of relegation and that wont be helped tonight when he loses this. One aspect of Garys game that isn't back yet though is his 180 scoring so I'm not taking him in that market. Instead, I'll take him to win the match and hit the highest checkout as Chisnall has been abit crap on the doubling.

4pts M.Van Gerwen -4.5 legs to beat R.Thornton Evens Skybet
1pt M.Van Gerwen to win 7-0 13/2 Skybet
I think there is every chance that Van Gerwen beats Thornton 7-0 but you'd expect atleast a 7-2 to cover this handicap. Head-2-head between the two shows Van Gerwen has covered this handicap in the last 2 matches he beat him in and the way Van Gerwen is playing, and coming off of Taylor beating him 7-0 you wouldn't be surprised. 

2pts Sky price boost accy - Smith / Anderson / Lewis 13/2 
I really like this accy. First two ofcourse I've tipped. Lewis to beat Barney is the dodgy one as both are such random players and barney always does well in Liverpool but I think it's worth a shot as Barney has looked abit "unbothered" shall we say recently. 

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-5.5pts for the night. Van Gerwen lets me down again. +65pts for the thread. 

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Big night of darts tonight. Lots of small stake big prices mixed with nice price doubles. 

4pts G.Anderson to beat J.Wade & have the most 180s 11/8 Skybet
The head-2-head speaks for itself really. Wade hasn't beaten Anderson since 2014 and Anderson has won the last 10 and the 11th was a draw. I will be taking the outright bet of 4/7 at bigger stakes but one I also like is him to win with the 180s as you'd expect Anderson to always outscore Wade in that area.

5.5pts P.Taylor to beat M.Smith & have the highest checkout 8/11 Skybet
Smith has to win or he is going to be relegated and finish bottom (which is what I want as I got him to finish bottom at 10/1 pre league) so Id expect abit of determination from Smith. Problem is, like Anderson, Taylor also needs to win as all 3 of the "big boys" are fighting it out for top spot. To get a better price I've chucked in the checkout too, as Taylor is hitting 100+ in most matches nowadays

1pt D.Chisnall to win the match / highest checkout / most 180s 8/1 Skybet
This is a pure value bet. I actually favour Wright here but also remembering that Chisnall MUST win to not get relegated, and the fact that Chisnall has a good head-2-head with Wright, all in all it makes this bet a great value shout. He will win the 180 count so effectively it's a checkout and win bet here for 8/1. Tiny stakes

2pts R.Thornton to beat A.Lewis 7/2 Skybet
0.5pt R.Thornton to win / highest checkout / most 180s 20/1 Skybet
Thornton was much, much better last week. He is scoring big again and doubling well. He beat Smith and got 3 180s and then got a magical draw and got another 2 180s there too. Lewis only managed 3 180s himself. This match will depend on other results with Chisnall before it. So, if Chisnall wins, this bet may not be a good shout as Thornton will have nothing to play for. If Wright beats Chisnall though, this is a great price and so is the massive 20/1 treble as if Lewis isn't in any form you never know. 

2pts Van Barneveld to beat Van Gerwen 13/2 Skybet
0.5pt Van Barneveld to win match / highest checkout / most 180s 33/1 Skybet
Price just looks too big for Barney. Van Gerwen is still winning all the time ofcourse but that draw against Thornton? the draw with Taylor when he should of won 7-4? the head-2-head with these two is 3 each in the last 6 and Barney won the last so yes, Van Gerwen should win but the value is too big to miss.

2pt Skyboost Accy - Anderson / Taylor / Wright 7/2 Skybet
A nice price for these three. I fully expect Anderson and Taylor to win and Wright you'd expect to win despite me tipping the big price on Chisnall treble. 

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Id of beat Anderson in those first 6 legs. FFS! donkeys, I swear!

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Luck seems to be well against me now but I'll keep plugging away. -8pts last week. How Van Barneveld didn't win I don't know. Lewis was there for the taking too and Anderson was throwing to win but hey ho. Bank still healthy at +57pts

I'll get my tips in asap for tonight. Busy day at work.

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I literally got home from work half hour ago. Obviously the bets I was going to tip have won but that's how I'm rolling at the moment lol

sorry for timing not long until we commence these but I'm going :

4pts P.Wright to beat A.Lewis 11/8 Skybet
2pts P.Taylor to beat J.Wade / Score most 180s / Highest checkout 7/2

 

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and there it is again... 6-5 up.. SIX DARTS to get a double... draw.. just shocking

[potus]

3 hours ago, Fader said:

and there it is again... 6-5 up.. SIX DARTS to get a double... draw.. just shocking

Short format, 'draw no bet' is your friend here.

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7 hours ago, potus said:

Short format, 'draw no bet' is your friend here.

Not for me. I don't like backing short prices.

Edited April 8, 2016 by Fader

[potus]

Surely it's about liking profits, whatever the price may be.

If you think something like 10/11 - or whatever it would have been - is a 'short price' then you are going to miss out on a lot of potential profit.

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1 hour ago, potus said:

Surely it's about liking profits, whatever the price may be.

If you think something like 10/11 - or whatever it would have been - is a 'short price' then you are going to miss out on a lot of potential profit.

disagree. If I had put all my "wins" as "draw no bet" Id have less profit right now. Profit is all that matters to me. 

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Lets try again then. 

6pts P.Wright to beat R.Thornton 4/6 Paddypower
Thornton only really seems to up his game against Van Gerwen. He has had some right stinkers in this Premier League and if he doesn't start well his shoulders soon slump. Wright needs a good result here to keep him in touch of the leaders and dominates the h2h in which Thornton hasn't won in 8 matches. 

3pts P.Taylor -2.5 legs to beat R.Van Barneveld Evens Bet365
Barney just doesn't look at the races to me. He really should of beat Van Gerwen a few weeks back and even last week he was very poor against Wade. Taylor has got his consistency back and he isn't missing the doubles he was a few months back. I fancy him to win this 7-3/7-4 so the handicap looks a nice price at evens.

4pts J.Wade to beat A,Lewis 15/8 Skybet
2pts J.Wade to win and have highest checkout 4/1 Skybet
1pt J.Wade to win the match / Most 180s / Highest Checkout 14/1 Skybet 
Another that looks poor is Adrian Lewis. You never know with Lewis as he can just turn up one week and if he does that he'll win but too many times this year already we have seen him just look very average. I'm going to take a little punt on the treble too for a point you can't go wrong here. I don't expect Lewis to shine and if that's the case then you shouldn't expect too many 180s. Wade also is very good at high checkouts so I will also take that.

4pts Van Gerwen to beat G.Anderson & Highest Checkout 11/8 Skybet
Fancy Van Gerwen to win this one. Andersons form has been sketchy and although he is right up there and don't think he has the game to beat Van Gerwen at the moment. Anderson can hit 180s for fun on his day so I'll leave that alone and go for Van Gerwen with the checkout.

2.5pts R.Thornton to beat R.Van Barneveld 2/1 Skybet
1.5pt R.Thornton to win the match / Over 2.5 180s / checkout over 96.5 7/1 Skybet
Too big a price for Thornton. Van Barneveld will probably lose to Taylor and then at the end of the night has to come back out to play Thornton and that's not Barneys style atall. He isn't used to the way this league is going. He isn't used to losing every week but that's what is happening recently and to be honest, I think Thornton will want it more and will work harder knowing a win could take him above Barney.

 

Edited April 14, 2016 by Fader

[Jazzer Isaac]

Most 180s of the week - Michael van Gerwen @ 5/6. 5 points. Betfred.

I won't bore you with the sums but this is way, way over on PL performance this season.

A lot of the excess probability is held in Lewis' price, which I think is under due to his 9 last week. MvG beats him comfortably over summed 2 game samples and beats the field >90% when 2 plays 1 matchwise.

Biggest bet I've had since the World Matchplay. 

Definitely a price worth having. Hopefully Michael does the business.

Edited April 21, 2016 by Jazzer Isaac