Saturday Racing- Feb 6th

[BillyHills]

Looking ahead to the weekend. 

Big meetings at Sandown & Leopardstown

Any thoughts .......

[BillyHills]

3.00 Sandown: Full Preview

Early thoughts;

Verdict:

I’m sticking with the trends and going for a couple that are rated below the 140 mark. My main choice is Baywing who was very impressive at Haydock last time out. He travelled superbly well, moved up to challenge in the home straight and won as he wanted. He’s on a mark of 135 which is about perfect and he goes on the ground. He’s a likeable improving sort who should be followed until beaten. As an alternative I like Saddlers Encore at the bottom end of the weights. His last run at Wincanton was a cracking effort behind his stable mate and if they can straighten out his wandering tendencies he will improve again.

Selections: 

Baywing 8/1 Paddy Power

Saddlers Encore 12/1 Bet365

 

 

[Jimmy2shoes]

54 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Looking ahead to the weekend. 

Big meetings at Sandown & Leopardstown

Any thoughts .......

Keep Powder dry for the Festival, we rondevu at 13:30 hours

Just be there Sir

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rV_fsF3woo

[arsenalfh]

1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

Looking ahead to the weekend. 

Big meetings at Sandown & Leopardstown

Any thoughts .......

Looking forward to the Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown at the weekend which is one of the best novice hurdles of the year. Last year Nichols Canyon was the winner with Windsor Park in behind and the year before we had Vautour against The Tullow Tank. Bellshill, Yorkihill and Tombstone all entered among other promising types.

[richard-westwood]

3.00 sand

Baywing    99.12 

Donnas diamond   99.06

Join the clan     99.02

Anteros     99.01

 

Im with billy on this one ....baywing looks the perfect horse for this race ...young up and coming novice ...lightly raced ....will handle conditions perfectly ...he looks ready made for this ....8/1 looks a decent price ...  donnas diamond is no push over ....will also handle conditions and is also an improving type so fits the profile also ...prices around 16/1 look too big and im a play at those prices 

Worth mentioning anteros too who at 16/1 also looks decent value for a horse with perfect conditions and a nice racing weight ....interesting race 

Baywing   5 pts win 8/1 paddyp

Donnas diamond  2 pts ew 16/1 spb

 

Edited February 2, 2016 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

Irish Gold Cup - Preview

 

Verdict:

Whichever way you slice this race the favourite Road To Riches is going to be hard to beat and the 4/5 available at the moment might well seem quite generous by race day. He looks sure to line up and his form is rock solid at this sort of level.

Last years winner and second; Carlingford Lough and Foxrock are not in the same form and it may pay to side with Gilgamboa as an each way selection. He’s got a bit to learn yet and his stamina in not 100% proven in this class. One of the more progressive stayers in a line up that has a few runners who are perhaps past their best. Valseur Lido is a big price and if he runs he could be one for the frame also.

 

Selection:

Road To Riches 4/5 Bet365

EW: Gilgamboa 9/1 Skybet (Valseur Lido 20/1 Paddy Power)

 

 

[BillyHills]

Welsh Champion Hurdle

 

Verdict:

A very competitive renewal and champion trainer Paul Nicholls is going for his third consecutive victory in the race. Last year’s winner Silsol has done nothing wrong over hurdles but has a poor run over fences to put behind him. Ibis Du Rheu is improving and might be a better option and he can gain revenge on Yala Enki who beta him last time out.

Box Office would be a confident choice if the Jonjo O’Neill weren’t going through such a poor spell. It is a worry but this horse is well handicapped on his best form. Solstice Star has another weight rise to defy but is running well while last years runner-up Kayf Moss is worth considering now back in trip.

 

Selections:

Box Office 7/1 Betfair

Kayf Moss 12/1 Betfair

 

[BillyHills]

1.50 Sandown (2m Handicap Chase)

 

Verdict:

Trappy looking handicap and I reckon its between Bold Henry, Arthurs Oak, Chris Pea Green and Doctor Harper. The Gary Moore runner Chris Pea Green has jumping issues at present so I’d leave him alone for now and Doctor Harper’s form is hard to weigh up as his three chases have all been in small fields.

That leaves the two that fought out the finish at the last meeting here and I’m siding with Arthurs Oak to get his revenge on this better ground. The yard have a good record in the race and is now better off at the weights with his rival Bold Henry and is taken to make it three wins in seven years for Venetia Williams.

 

Selections:

Arthurs Oak 4/1 >888Sport  (n.b. Bold Henry 9/2 32Red)

EW Ulck Du Lin 10/1 Betfair

 

[richard-westwood]

On 2/2/2016, 7:50:14, richard-westwood said:

3.00 sand

Baywing    99.12 

Donnas diamond   99.06

Join the clan     99.02

Anteros     99.01

 

Im with billy on this one ....baywing looks the perfect horse for this race ...young up and coming novice ...lightly raced ....will handle conditions perfectly ...he looks ready made for this ....8/1 looks a decent price ...  donnas diamond is no push over ....will also handle conditions and is also an improving type so fits the profile also ...prices around 16/1 look too big and im a play at those prices 

Worth mentioning anteros too who at 16/1 also looks decent value for a horse with perfect conditions and a nice racing weight ....interesting race 

Baywing   5 pts win 8/1 paddyp

Donnas diamond  2 pts ew 16/1 spb

 

just a note ....this happens quite a lot on my bets actually that they are well backed once the hoards start looking at the form on the day of racing .....baywing is currently trading at 7/2 fav or laying at 4.8 on betfair     .......a laybet of 9.38 would guarntee 4.38 profit on baywing at above stakes win or lose  .......ive seen about half a dozen such trades in the past couple of monthes certainly something i will keep an eye on ......could be that i need to adjust my ante post staking to just one horse who is in the first 3-5 horses in betting .....that way once the hoards have read the form and they are a knowledable bunch the prices naturally drop and lay possibiltys occur ....if the lay poss doesnt occur than maybe let it run with the backup horse ??.....could result in a lot of bets winning with no risk ...i.e in this case baywing would have been the selection and could now be checked out with a profit ...nice doing business .......im letting them run though in this case as i like the look of them both but food for thought 

Edited February 5, 2016 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

Scoop6 Selections

 

Tote Scoop6 – Saturday February 6th

Once again nobody managed to get beyond leg 4 of last week’s Tote Scoop6 and that means we have a rollover. The Win Fund of £249,328 provides a nice solid pot to get us going and that massive Bonus Fund of £841,550 is waiting for someone. Don’t forget we are also playing for a Place Fund, last week that paid a handsome £1,186.00 and you didn’t even have to pick a winner!

This week’s action is from Sandown and Leopardstown over jumps and we have three races from the AW at Lingfield and for the first time ever we have the final two legs going off at the same time!

Leg 1: 1.10 Lingfield

The first leg is a 7f handicap on the polytrack and we have 11 runners. The top weight Clement is in the form of his life at present and has won his last two races around here making it four in total at Lingfield. 7lb claimer Georgia Cox rides again and they will be very hard to beat. Gary Moore has been in the winners lately and his Etaad looks a worth opponent for the favourite. He’s up 4lbs from his last win here and is probably the best value in the race.

Selection: Etaad 7/2  Bet365 (Clement)

Leg 2: 1.45 Lingfield

A fast track qualifier over 6f is our next race and plenty of the runners come her in decent form. The winner last year was Rivellino but he was much better form than he is now so he’s got a stiff task following up. Chookie Royale has won his last two starts and is favourably treated by the conditions of this race and must go close for trainer Keith Dalglish. Cold As Ice is an interesting runner who has joined William Haggas after coming over from South Africa. She won at Chelmsford last time out and could be a different class to these, time will tell.

Selection: Chookie Royale 11/2 Skybet (Cold As Ice)

Leg 3: 3.00 Sandown

Our first visit to Sandown and a Grade 3 handicap hurdle. Yala Enki won the Lanzarote at Kempton last time and will be fancied to follow up here for Venetia Williams. The third that day Ibis Du Rheu is weighted to gain revenge and that horse may be better suited by this slightly longer trip. One I like and could beat them both is Baywing who travels down from Cumbria and the base of Nicky Richards. The yard is in good form and is horse was very impressive when winning at Haydock recently and has no worries about the soft ground. Of the others the Philip Hobbs runner Saddlers Encore could run well a fair price.

Selection: Baywing 4/1 Skybet (Saddlers Encore)

Leg 4: 3.05 Leopardstown

Probably the most competitive race of the day and the reason why we have gone to Ireland for a Scoop6 race. A 16-runner handicap and completely wide-open and a good place to start I suppose is with champion trainer Willie Mullins. He saddles Blazer for JP McManus and has been chasing so far this season. He could be anything and was a winner in France last February and looks well handicapped on 126. All You Need has won twice this season but was well beaten off this mark at Navan recently, he came back to form over fences last time. Jim Culloty saddles Mighty Concorde down at the bottom of the weights and he’s a very consistent sort who has been placed in his last six starts and looks a solid option in a difficult race.

Selection: Mighty Concorde 15/2 Paddy Power (Blazer)

Leg 5: 3.30 Sandown

Only 8 runners for this 3m-handicap chase but any of them can be fancied on their best form. Top weight Seventh Sky seems to run every other week but his form is holding up well and is a credit to trainer Charlie Mann. He will attempt to lead these and won’t be far away at the finish. Le Reve has been a bit disappointing this season but has a chance on his Ascot run while Knock House has ran well on all of his starts this season and drops back in trip after failing to get home at Cheltenham last time. The conditions here will suit him well and interestingly jockey Gavin Sheean swaps to this horse from Seventh Sky.

Selection: Knock House 7/1 Boylesports (Seventh Sky)

Leg 6: 3.30 Lingfield

Officially the final leg is the 7f handicap at Lingfield although it’s a much longer race than the Sandown contest. 14 runners and very competitive stuff with 5 C/D winners in the line up. A couple of the fancied horses (Certificate & Realize) have been unlucky with the draw so they might be worth opposing here. I like Arnold Lane from the Mick Channon yard, he was third to Realize last time out and is now better off at the weights and is in stall one. The second horse that day was Shyron, one of two runners for George Margarson. He got going too late that day and should be thereabouts once again.

Selection: Arnold Lane 11/1 BetVictor(Shyron)

 

 

 

[Blazing Bailey]

Sandown 1.50 - Arthurs Oak 5/2 Coral

This looks like a two horse rematch between Arthurs Oak and Bold Henry (albeit I would expect Grey Gold to put up a better showing than last time).  Hobbs has a few really in an out horses and this fella looks like another and with the 10lb rise that puts him on a very high mark for what he has achieved and with a 5lb swing for last time Arthurs Oak just appears to be the most reliable of the two.

[arsenalfh]

Hard to fault Ivanovich Gorbatov but I think Allblak des Places is a big price. Outspoken was going to beat him but that one has a very similar profile to Ivanovich Gorbatov and could be just as good. The two of them put a mile between themselves and the rest when initially the race looked more competitive coming into the straight. Still completely unexposed and I'm surprised he's so big for the Mullins second string.

In the mares race at 1.25 the tongue tie, the booking of top claimer Jack Kennedy and drop of 2f could allow All Summer Long to reverse the form with Elusive Ivy. All Summer Long gets in here right at the bottom of the weights and shaped much better than a 91 rated mare the last day. I thought Moore hit the front far too soon the last day as well and with conditions in her favour the 8/1 available in a number of bookmakers makes the selection look a decent play.

The Deloitte is a fascinating race but I have no strong opinion betting wise. Bellshill really hasn't beaten much at all if you go through his form and Tombstone is the most interesting with the hood likely to be a big help to him although the ground hasn't dried out since Christmas as much as he would like especially stepping up in trip. 2/1 isn't very appealing either so I would need him to drift a bit to make him a selection. Petit Mouchoir and Bleu et Rouge were behind Tombstone at Christmas and both are 2lbs worse off at the weights so it's hard to see them reversing the form although the latter took a wide trip all the way around shaping better than the result. That being said on worse terms he has a bit to find.

Pont Alexandre is a superb jumper and also a pretty strong traveler so for those reasons I reckon the drop to 2m 5f will suit and he can make all to win. Bryan Cooper said the race where Pont Alexandre was beaten in a few weeks ago was the best Irish novice chase he's ridden in this season and Roi des Francs is probably a good bit better than what Pont Alexandre has to face here. Outlander is well worth taking on as he looks very exposed at this stage and only narrowly beat Avant Tout at Limerick who was off a break and ran poorly since. You also have to be a bit concerned about how close Blair Perrone was to Zabana the last day but he's surely got more in the locker as he was much better over hurdles and jumps well. However at the prices Pont Alexandre looks a great bet at 3/1 on Betfair.

The 3.05 is a tough betting race with only 16 runners but Legacy Gold looks well handicapped on form. He has had problems though and Crawford hasn't had her long which is a bit of a concern but that looks factored into the price. I'll hold fire though as I would want to know if I'm getting 4 places e/w before deciding to bet on this race.

I have Road to Riches backed for the Gold Cup as I think going to Cheltenham a much fresher horse will do him the world of good and hopefully the ground will be much better this time around which will also be in his favour. Last years Gold Cup form looks rock solid but I'm happy to take him on off a break after a small setback with stablemate Wounded Warrior. He ran well on his comeback over a trip to short and still has a bit of improvement in him as a second season chaser. Gilgamboa who didn't seem to appreciate 3m in the Paddy Power and can be opposed as can Valseur Lido who just isn't that good. Sir des Champs is finished, Carlingford Lough needs better ground and Fine Rightly is out of his depth so Wounded Warrior looks an excellent each way play at 20/1 with some bookmakers going 1/4 odds.

On The Fringe very easy to oppose at the prices as he never seems to be at his best at this meeting and Two Rockers also looks very short. It Came To Pass has a bit to find although he was very good at Limerick and has more potential. You Must Know Me looks a nice price at 14s as just last April he ran a great race before falling at the last in a decent looking affair with Baily Green and Gold Bullet fighting out the finish. He's been bolting up in points since so surely is in decent enough shape. He should make his presence felt in this sphere.

Sunni May easily has the best form in the bumper and the three horses who beat him on his reappearance have won well since. If he can build on that he surely has a good chance here but he's been drifting on the exchange so I'll be backing him closer to the off.

[Blazing Bailey]

Sandown 3.00 - Ibis De Rheu 5/1 & Baywing 5/1 William Hill

 

I wittled this one down to 4 runners of whom I still think are on a winnable mark. Donnas Diamond is a close firth but I think her latest game win in a weaker race has probably now put her a bit high.

Ibis De Rheu and Yala Enki go against each other again today and I think that the former has a good chance of reversing the form. Being a half brother to World Hurdle second and one day Gold Cup Contender (if Nicholl stops making excuses) Saphir De Rheu he should appreciate the step up in trip and I thought he was a little unlucky last time having raced from much further back that the front two and being the only horse to do so and remain competitive. Yala Enki faded the last time he was stepped up to this trip and I would be concerned about him being beaten up the hill.

Baywing has already been fancied by many on here and whilst I am probably not as strong in my opinion of him as I am in the Nicholls horse, I do like his progressive form especially as he seems to be doing it so easily on this bad ground. I fancied the second and third to put up a big show so given that he beat them last time he has to be of interest here.

[Blazing Bailey]

Wetherby 2.45 - Native River 7/2 William Hill

 

I have fancied this horse ever since his Chepstow run at the begining of the season and it came of no surprise to me that he won convincingly at Newbury the time after. After that race I did pick up some of the mid 20's available for the RSA so I was a disappointed by his Feltham run albeit he did have a few excuses and still closed nicely in the straight. He screams out to me as an RSA horse and I am very worried that his connections seem to want to go down the 4 miler route. He jumps well, travels nicely and will be fine on this bad ground.

For me his main rival is Blaklion and he is also another I really like, especially back at this trip and I certainly wouldnt be against him but I think they are very similar and therefore the prices dictate that I side with the Tizzard horse.

In truth I dont see the others getting too close to these two down the straight as I think they are a little clear of Definitely Red who in turn is even clearer of Bit of a Puzzle.

[Blazing Bailey]

Ffos Las 2.05 - Welsh Champion Hurdle - San Benedito 12/1 Paddy Power

 

There are a few to be wary of in this, especially those at the top of the weights however I do think that they are now at the stage where they don't have a great deal in hand. Nicholls has a very good record in this race having won the last two renewals and I have been very impressed with this ones Wincanton win on heavy ground and his 2nd behind a decent sort at Newbury again on a softer surface with the pair well clear. We know that ground and trip are not going to be a problem and the horse is also clearly going the right way and with a very competitive weight on his back, I could see him running really well in this.

[BillyHills]

Pot at Sandown;

 

[arsenalfh]

11 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

Hard to fault Ivanovich Gorbatov but I think Allblak des Places is a big price. Outspoken was going to beat him but that one has a very similar profile to Ivanovich Gorbatov and could be just as good. The two of them put a mile between themselves and the rest when initially the race looked more competitive coming into the straight. Still completely unexposed and I'm surprised he's so big for the Mullins second string.

On The Fringe very easy to oppose at the prices as he never seems to be at his best at this meeting and Two Rockers also looks very short. It Came To Pass has a bit to find although he was very good at Limerick and has more potential. You Must Know Me looks a nice price at 14s as just last April he ran a great race before falling at the last in a decent looking affair with Baily Green and Gold Bullet fighting out the finish. He's been bolting up in points since so surely is in decent enough shape. He should make his presence felt in this sphere.

Sunni May easily has the best form in the bumper and the three horses who beat him on his reappearance have won well since. If he can build on that he surely has a good chance here but he's been drifting on the exchange so I'll be backing him closer to the off.

2 winners and a place made it a good day. Unfortunately the hunter chase winner You Must Know Me had to be put down after the race which was a massive shame after such a bold gutsy display.

[BillyHills]

On 2 February 2016 at 18:07:00, BillyHills said:

Saddlers Encore 12/1 Bet365

 

On 4 February 2016 at 16:15:06, BillyHills said:

Arthurs Oak 4/1 >888Sport  (n.b. Bold Henry 9/2 32Red)

EW Ulck Du Lin 10/1 Betfair

Might get the odd NR but it pays to get on early!

[BillyHills]

1 hour ago, arsenalfh said:

2 winners and a place made it a good day. Unfortunately the hunter chase winner You Must Know Me had to be put down after the race which was a massive shame after such a bold gutsy display.

Well done mate, cracking winner, shame about the aftermath

[Trotter]

Few good winners in the thread today !

I know there were a couple of non runners but Arthur's Oak must have really well backed to go off 6/4F

I think Bold Henry was favourite when I looked at the race on Friday night but every man and his dog appears to have realised that the form wold be overturned from their last time out run against each other

[Trotter]

Just seen the Irish Gold Cup.........blimey, that's a 'what happened next' with the eventual winner almost tailed off !