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Naked's Lays


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  • Naked Incognito

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For this method Betfair prices will be used.

Selection process is set upon 3 fundamental criteria which must be met for the selection to qualify as a lay.

Each separate criterion handicapping the selection's chances of winning must concur with each other and either or all  criteria can sometimes have good to satisfactory evidence behind them... Without giving too much away this hopes to seek out "definitely maybe going to lose" scenarios where the price states otherwise.

Therein, hopefully we have locked in value

This a test.

100 point starting bank. 2% of betting bank to be used and recalculated each day. Non-regressive style.

Edited by The Naked Gambler
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22 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Western Rules 1:20 Newcastle - ABANDONED

Willie Hall 1:55 Newcastle - ABANDONED

Closing Ceremony 2:40 Kempton - 5.7 (plumb last btn 98l+)  +1.90

Stellar Notion 3:45 Kempton - 4.9 (plumb last btn 29l+) +1.90

 

Strike Rate: 100.00%

Daly Profit/Loss: +3.80

New Bank: 103.80 points

Next Stake: 2.08

Edited by Naked Incognito
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21 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Transient Bay 1:45 Wetherby - 4.3* (won) -6.86

On Tour 2:30 Leicester - NR

Knockgraffon 3:00 Leicester - 2.9 (2nd btn 6l) +1.97**

Peace Seeker 3:45 Southwell - 1.55 (plumb last btn 10l) +1.97**

* BFSP is 4.31 but you cannot bet in increments of 0.1 on BF. Adjusted accordingly

** 1.976

Strike Rate: 80.00% (4/5)

Daily Profit/Loss: -2.92

New Bank: 100.88

Next Stake: 2.08

 

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11 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

He's A Dreamer 2:35 Lingfield - 3.5 (won) -5.20

 

16 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Point The Way 1:20 Catterick - 2.96 (won) -4.08

Three Colours Red 1:40 Bangor - ABANDONED

Alf 'N' Dor 4:25 Bangor - ABANDONED

 

Strike Rate: (4/7) 57.14%

Daily Profit/Loss: -9.28

New Bank: 91.60

Next Stake: 2.08

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17 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Guaracha 1:25 Fakenham - 5.29 (u/p btn 36l+) +1.97

Eleuthera 1:35 Southwell - 2.42* (won) -2.95

Girly Girl 2:00 Fakenham - 3.7 (2nd btn 6l) +1.97

Wishsong 2:40 Southwell - 4.77 (u/p btn 13l+) +1.97

*BFSP is 2.43 but odds between 2 and 3 can only be bet in increments of .02 on BF.

16 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Bears Rails 2:20 Warwick - 8.08 (3rd btn 26l+) +1.97

Buttercup 3:30 Warwick - 7.2 (u/p btn 1l+) +1.97

Final 3:50 Southwell - 2.36 (u/p btn 13l+) +1.97

Strike Rate: 10/14 (71.43%)

Daily Profit/Loss: +8.87

New Bank: 100.47

Next Stake: 2.08

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On 28/01/2016, 19:49:33, Naked Incognito said:

Thomas Brown 2.05 Doncaster - 3.05 (won) -4.26

Lord Huntingdon 2:50 Lingfield - 8.02 (u/p btn 9l+) +1.97

At The Top 3:15 Huntingdon - 3.01(PU) +1.97

Custard The Dragon 3:25 Lingfield - 2.06 (won) -2.20

Bags Grove 4:20 Huntingdon - 2.78 (won) -3.70

 

Strike Rate: 12/19 (63.16%)

Daily Profit/Loss: -6.22

New Bank: 94.25

Next Stake: 2.08

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On 30/01/2016, 04:00:42, Naked Incognito said:

Bonnie Question 1:45 Uttoxeter - NR

Gowanauthat 2:20 Uttoxeter - 7.4 (PU) +1.97

Beleave 2:50 Lingfield - 4.2** (won) -6.66

Clan Legend 2:55 Uttoxeter - 3.35 (u/p btn 1l+) +1.97

Si Señor 3:25 Lingfield - 3.4* (won) -4.99

Blameitallonmyroots 3:30 Uttoxeter - 2.86* (won) -3.87

Bear Faced 4:00 Lingfied - 2.12 (won) -2.33

Jaunty Inflight 4:05 Uttoxeter - 6.25 (PU) +1.97

Clement 4:30 Lingfield - 3.35 (u/p btn 1l+) +1.97

Pret A Thou 4:35 Uttoxeter - 4.31 (u/p btn 10l+) +1.97

*BFSP 2.87 - Bets between 2 and 3 must be in increments of .02.

*BFSP 2.13 - Bets between 2 and 3 must be in increments of .02.

*BFSP 3.44 - Bets between 3 and 4 must be in increments of .05.

**BFSP 4.23 - Bets between 4 and 6 must be in increments of 0.1.

 

Edited by Naked Incognito
Added result table
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17 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Libby Mae1:45 Sedgefield - 3.1 (2nd btn 3l+) +1.97

Racing Europe 2:45 Sedgefield - 2.38 (u/p btn 1l) +1.97

Felix Younger 3:00 Punchestown - 2.2 (won) -2.50

Love Rory 3:30 Punchestown - 4.9 (3rd btn 5l) +1.97

Top Wood 3:50 Sedgefield - 4.63 (u/p btn 25l+) +1.97

Battleford 4:35 Punchestown 1.7 (won) -1.46

 

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On 31/01/2016, 19:49:32, Naked Incognito said:

Zero Visibility 2:10 Plumpton - 4.4 (u/p btn 31l+) +1.97

Jeannie's Place 2:35 Wolverhampton - 2.9 (u/p btn 4l+) +1.97

Highest Quality 2:50 Kempton - 21.58 (u/p btn 8l+) +1.97

Pour La Victoire 3:25 Kempton - 3.75 (2nd btn nk) +1.97

Nezwaah 3:40 Wolverhampton - 2.36*  (won)  -2.83

Grecian King 4:45 Wolverhampton - 4.3 (2nd btn 1l+) +1.97

 

*BFSP 2.37

 

Strike Rate: 26/40 (65.00%)

Daily Profit/Loss: +7.02

New Bank: 98.20

Next Stake: 2.08

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17 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Bloody Mary 2:45 Taunton - 1.87 (won) -1.81

Don't Call Me 3:00 Southwell - NR

Hermitage Bay 3:30 Southwell - 1.68 (2nd btn nk) +1.97

After Hours 3:45 Taunton - 3.33 (u/p btn 16l+) +1.97

Strike Rate: 28/43 (65.12%)

Daily Profit/Loss: +2.13

New Bank: 100.33

Next Stake: 2.08

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23 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Tocororo 1:45 Down Royal - 4.09 (u/p btn 7l+) +1.97

Just Acting 1:50 Leicester - 8.4 (PU) +1.97

Cernunnos 4:10 Leicester - 5.0 (won) -8.32

In The Crowd 4:40 Leicester - 4.58 (2nd btn 1/2l) +1.97

Clan Chief 4:20 Newcastle - 4.1 (UR) +1.97

Strike Rate: 32/48 (66.67%)

Daily Profit/Loss: -0.44

New Bank: 99.89

Next Stake: 2.08

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19 hours ago, Naked Incognito said:

Fire In Soul 1:25 Clonmel - 5.8 (won) -9.98

Lifeboat Mona 1:30 Wincanton - 2.78* (won) -3.70

A Little Bit Dusty 2:20 Southwell - 5.2 (u/p btn 13l) +1.97

Suit Yourself 2:40 Towcester - 2.33 (3rd btn 10l+) +1.97

Virnon 3:25 Southwell - 5.14 (plumb last btn 18l+) +1.97

Ruby Light 3:30 Clonmel - 3.2 (u/p btn 1l+) +1.97

St Patrick's Day 4:00 Southwell - 3.6** (won) -5.41

Vicangelome 4:05 Clonmel - 3.75*** (won) -5.72

Boudry 4:25 Towcester - 2.92 (3rd btn 3l+) +1.97

*BFSP 2.79   **BFSP 3.62   ***BFSP 3.79

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On 04/02/2016, 19:44:37, Naked Incognito said:

Jaleo 1:20 Catterick - 1.81 (won) -1.68

Robin of Locksley 1:40 Chepstow - 2.2 (u/p btn 5l) +1.97

Runswick Relax 2:25 Catterick - 5.56 (2nd btn 5l) +1.97

Wild West Wind 2:45 Chepstow - 3.35* (won) -4.89

Iron Butterfly 2:55 Catterick - 6 (2nd btn 4l+) +1.97

Double W's 3:25 Catterick - 2.8 (2nd btn 3/4l) +1.97

Special Wells 4:00 Catterick - 3.96 (u/p btn 29l+) +1.97

Pride of Lecale 4:50 Chepstow - 4.3** (won) -6.86

*BFSP 3.31 **BFSP 4.27

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