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Saturday Racing- Jan 23rd


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3.15 Haydock : Peter Marsh Chase

 

Verdict:

Fingal Bay is the horse for the trend followers; he has the perfect rating, goes well on the ground and as been in decent form this season. He’s a bit short in the market really but you can’t ignore his chances in this company.

Of those a big bigger in the betting I like the chances of Seventh Sky from the Charlie Mann yard. He has been a very consistent chaser this season and I reckon there is more to come over tis kind of trip. He has a lot of weight and has been pretty busy but he seems to be a tough sort who can stand his racing and you need that for a race such as this. Katenko and Splash Of Ginge are others for the shortlist in what should be a fascinating contest.

 

Selections: 

Seventh Sky EW 14/1 Stan James

Fingal Bay 6/1 Paddy Power

 

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3.00 Ascot: Clarence House Chase

 

Verdict:

Impossible to oppose Un De Sceaux if he turns up. He is the ante-post favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase and this is far easier than that will be. If he decides to stay in Ireland then Sire De Grugy would be the very short priced favourite and rightly so. At the odds I would sooner be with Vibrato Valtat. I just think the track and trip will suit him well and he shouldn’t be such a big price.

Selections: 

Un De Sceaux 10/11 Skybet

Vibrato Valtat EW 10/1 Boylesports

 

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3.35 Ascot: Bet365 Chase

 

Verdict:

I’m going to go against the favourite here as I reckon Regal Encore still has a bit to prove over fences and just gets beat too many times when having seemingly good opportunities. My first choice has to be Royal Regatta, he was a fairly decent sort before his last run here over C/D but that victory was very impressive and if the headgear works again I can see him going close in this company.

Salubrious has to be rated as a danger as the Nicholls yard has won this the last two years. He’s well handicapped compared to his hurdles rating and ran well to a point last time out.

 

Selections: 

Royal Regatta 6/1 Bet365

Salubrious 11/2 Bet365

 

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Peter marsh chase haydock 

Fingal bay  99.27 

Third intention  99.24

Reve de sivola   99.22

Very interesting race ...bookies seem to have this chalked up fairly well with fingal bay and reve de sivola joint favs ....bit of a puzzle this one ..   reve de sivola could be anything returned to chasing ....is rated as high as 160 over hurdles but only 139 when last seen over chases .....runs off 139 here so difficult to know whether hes improved or will find it tough racing against seasoned chasers and french breds have poor record  ...toss of a coin really on that one ..   no such worrys with fingal bay who should run a big race here  ....wont mind ground or dist ..has all the nescessary form you want for this race so the 6/1 especially ew  looks more appealing than reve de sivolas 

Dark horse is third intention who is stepping up in dist ..has patchy form around 3 mile and has run quite well in past but usually runs at shorter and has some smart form over that ....most interesting point is hes ridden by 7 lb claimer which is unusual ....last few of these has been won by claimers horses and he gets to run off 152 .(with the claim)....right in the sweet zone and hes priced at ...25/1!!!....definate value bet ......ill take on reve de sivola with the other two and hope the biggy springs a surprise..!!

Fingal bay 3 pts ew 6/1 willh

Third intention   3 pts ew 25/1 bet 365 

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335 ascot bet 365 chase 

Bennys mist    99.34

R oyal regatta    99.28

Regal encore  99.26

Typically open ascot hcap but there seems to be a nice value bet here in bennys mist who ran a cracker over this distance lto and hasnt really been harshly penalised for that run ....royal regatta could be dangerous too and should run a big race ....but only negative I can see about bennys mist is his age ....at 10 hes getting on a bit but venetia williams very much respected so the 10/1 is just too good ...ew bet 

Bennys mist   5 pts ew  10/1 paddyp

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Scoop6 – Saturday 23rd January

 

No winner of the Tote Scoop6 last week, everyone went out after four legs! The Bonus Fund wasn’t won either so that starts at a whopping £785,648 and all together we are playing for a possible £1 Million . To get a chance of that bonus you need to enter this week and the action comes from Ascot, Haydock and Taunton. All jump races this week and the feature race is the 3.15 from Haydock Park, the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Chase over 3 miles.

 

Leg 1: 2.25 Ascot

The first leg is from Ascot and it’s a cracker of race with 18 runners lining up for a 2m3f handicap hurdle. Last year it went to Venetia Williams and she saddles Dubawi Island this time round who was second in a god race at Wincanton last time. We have six last-time out winners in the field and Rock The Kasbah looks the best of those. He won by 8 lengths at Haydock and looks an improving animal. He’s up in he weights but looks up to it on the evidence so far. The Henderson yard have two runners and an intriguing horse in Kilcrea Vale who won on his debut easily and then fell next time out when going well, he could be anything.

Selection: Kilcrea Vale 11/1 BetVictor (Rock The Kasbah)

 

Leg 2: 2.45 Taunton

Out first visit to Taunton and another very tricky handicap although this time over the bigger obstacles. Only Class 4 stuff here and it wont take much winning and a fair place to start is with in form trainer Bob Buckler. He saddles Somerset Lias who was a good second at Exeter last time out in similar ground and looks sure to run well. Johns Luck is a course winner but in much better ground so maybe a better option would be Eaton Rock who has won in heavy ground and is only a pound higher than when winning at Lingfield in November.

Selection: Eaton Rock 10/1 Bet365 (Somerset Lias)

 

Leg 3: 3.15 Haydock Park (Peter Marsh Chase)

The big handicap chase of the day and a really good renewal in store. My two against the field are Fingal Bay and Seventh Sky. Fingal Bay was 4th in the Hennessy and a solid third last time out at Ascot and is well handicapped on his best form. Seventh Sky is enjoying a profitable season and won here at Haydock in December. Last time out he was a fair 5th at Cheltenham and if he can into a good rhythm he will be hard to peg back.

Of the others Splash Of Ginge is a decent each way bet and Reve De Sivola is interesting back over fences, he is rated much lower in this sphere and could be very well treated if returning to anything like his best form.

Selection: Fingal Bay 5/1 Betfred (Seventh Sky)

 

Leg 4: 3.35 Ascot

The Bet365 handicap Chase and 11 runners go to post. Regal encore will be popular after his victory last time out in a novice chase. This will be much tougher and his jumping will be severely tested here at Ascot. I’d sooner go with something more reliable and I loved the way Royal Regatta went about his business here last time out. He was wearing headgear for the first time that day and if it works again he looks the one to be one. Salubrious will be a danger from the Paul Nicholls yard, he lacks experience over fences but is a classy sort and not badly handicapped either.

Selection: Royal Regatta 9/2 Skybet (Salubrious)

 

Leg 5: 3.55 Taunton

An interesting little handicap hurdle for horses aged 8 years and above. A couple of these won last time out and it might pay to concentrate on those pair. Spice Fair won at Market Rasen by 6 lengths and as a result has been given a 12lb hike in the weights. He’s only had seven starts over timber so in theory could improve further. Winning Spark is of interest as his recent victory was over C/D and on heavy ground. He’s up 6lbs but will have everything else in his favour. The Skeltons run Wilton Milan who hasn’t been over hurdles for 3 years, he is a decent horse and has been running ok just lately and could be involved in a poor race like this.

Selection: Winning Spark 3/1  Ladbrokes (Wilton Milan)

 

Leg 6: 4.10 Ascot

The final leg and unusual to have a Novice Hurdle in the Scoop6. It’s a decent race over 2m5f and the top four all carry various penalties for winning a novice race this season already. Western Cape has a double penalty for winning a Class 3 race here at Ascot last time out. He’s been given a mark of 130 so in theory has it all to do beat Duke Des Champs who is rated 135 and gets 4lbs as well. The Philip Hobbs runner won at Market Rasen and then last time out was a good second in a handicap over C/D off 128. That ought to be good enough to win a race like this and should be able to gain revenge over his conqueror that day Masterplan who is much worse off today.

Selection: Duke Des Champs 6/4  Coral (Western Cape)

 

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3:00 ASCOT. SIRE DE GRUGY. Has come right back to form this year and can put up a strong challenge to Mullins camp. Winner of the Tingle creek two runs back and 3/4L behind the rejuvenated Sprinter Sacre last time out at Kempton. Un De Sceaux fall last time is for me a little off putting considering the price. Best price Sire De Grugy 11/4 paddy power 5/2 General could be a nice little bet, C/D winner a plus.

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On 20/01/2016, 17:25:28, richard-westwood said:

Peter marsh chase haydock 

Fingal bay  99.27 

Third intention  99.24

Reve de sivola   99.22

Very interesting race ...bookies seem to have this chalked up fairly well with fingal bay and reve de sivola joint favs ....bit of a puzzle this one ..   reve de sivola could be anything returned to chasing ....is rated as high as 160 over hurdles but only 139 when last seen over chases .....runs off 139 here so difficult to know whether hes improved or will find it tough racing against seasoned chasers and french breds have poor record  ...toss of a coin really on that one ..   no such worrys with fingal bay who should run a big race here  ....wont mind ground or dist ..has all the nescessary form you want for this race so the 6/1 especially ew  looks more appealing than reve de sivolas 

Dark horse is third intention who is stepping up in dist ..has patchy form around 3 mile and has run quite well in past but usually runs at shorter and has some smart form over that ....most interesting point is hes ridden by 7 lb claimer which is unusual ....last few of these has been won by claimers horses and he gets to run off 152 .(with the claim)....right in the sweet zone and hes priced at ...25/1!!!....definate value bet ......ill take on reve de sivola with the other two and hope the biggy springs a surprise..!!

Fingal bay 3 pts ew 6/1 willh

Third intention   3 pts ew 25/1 bet 365 

 

On 21/01/2016, 19:22:28, richard-westwood said:

335 ascot bet 365 chase 

Bennys mist    99.34

R oyal regatta    99.28

Regal encore  99.26

Typically open ascot hcap but there seems to be a nice value bet here in bennys mist who ran a cracker over this distance lto and hasnt really been harshly penalised for that run ....royal regatta could be dangerous too and should run a big race ....but only negative I can see about bennys mist is his age ....at 10 hes getting on a bit but venetia williams very much respected so the 10/1 is just too good ...ew bet 

Bennys mist   5 pts ew  10/1 paddyp

Fingal bay and bennys mist both 3rd ...broke even on the day ....third intention ran well 5th for a 25/1 shot .....unlucky today 

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