Australian Open 2016

[Fader]

By all means. Good to have discussion on here. We need more of it.

[owenclass]

9 hours ago, Fader said:

so, we finish the Quarter finals tonight. I will leave the Murray game as the bookies always make sure there is no value in his matches. 

Mens QF Previews, Part 2 : 

5pts M.Raonic -3.5 games to beat G.Monfils 4/5 Ladbrokes
I noticed when watching the highlights of the Raonic Vs Wawrinka match is, what Milos is doing very well is attacking at the net. His big serve is awesome and then he quickly gets to the net. I think that's what Nish should of done Vs Djokovic. Attack and go to the net. Try something different. Monfils will want to be hitting it from the baseline and I think if Milos plays like he did against Wawrinka he should cover this handicap pretty easily. But Monfils is a true athlete and he could take a set here so I don't want to risk too much on the set betting or handicap set betting and will just go for the games handicap as I don't expect Monfils to get 2 sets. Raonic is playing brilliantly. Long may it continue to th

4 hours ago, Fader said:

 

 

4 hours ago, Fader said:

 

Do you think the match might go to five sets as these two players are playing well

Edited January 26, 2016 by owenclass

[owenclass]

Mens Quarter final preview :

 

Gael Monfils vs Milos Raonic

Over 41.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 3.5 sets 4/7 paddy power

Raonic to win 3-1 11/4 paddy power

Raonic to lose the first set and win the match 7/2 paddy power

Over 32.5 aces in the match 4/5 paddy power

Over 8.5 Double faults in the match 8/11 paddy power

Raonic - Over 17.5 aces 4/5 paddy power

Raonic - Over 4.5 Double faults 4/5 paddy power

Raonic - Most Aces 2/5 paddy power

Well i think most people think Raonic is going to win this match but i have seen signs in this tournament that his opponent is starting to fulfil his potential and is starting to become a really top player like we knew he could be years ago and is capable of reaching a Grand slam semi final Raonic had a great win in the last round against Wawrinka and it did go to five sets so he may be a bit tired after that match while his opponent had a slightly easier match so he is more fresh thats why i feel it its going to be tough for Raonic and i think he will lose a set and maybe we will see a few tie breaks in the match as well also Raonic should produce more aces which brings more double faults as the pressure gets to him and if it goes to a fifth set then we will see a lot of aces

Edited January 26, 2016 by owenclass

[Fader]

32 minutes ago, owenclass said:

Do yo think the match might go to five sets as these two players are playing well

No I don't think so. I think 3-0 or 3-1 Raonic mate.

I think you will see more of the same with Raonic trying to serve and get to the net and I don't think Monfils will like or suit that style.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Fader

[Duckets]

Azarenka to beat kerber is a good bet but the odds are small.

 

[owenclass]

Womens Quarter final preview :

 

Johanna Konta vs Shuai Zhang

Over 21.5 games 10/11 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

It is funny that a British player is favourite to reach the semi finals but i dont think it is going to be that easy for her as i this is the biggest match of her life and nerves are going to be a big factor in the match and the question is Can she win when she is the favourite because it is a lot easier as the underdog so i think there will be three sets in the match

Edited January 27, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Back Novak Djokovic (-3.5) to beat Roger Federer for a 8/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

My heart wants Federer to win and I guess that everyone's does really, but the truth is that I can't see him doing that over five sets, Djokovic will just outlast him as he did in Wimbledon and the US Open last year I'm afraid. The Swiss number one might've dropped just one set until now and I guess that you can said some bad words about the match Djokovic played against Simon, but I think that all will be just thrown out of the window now and that it's going to be business as usual for the Serb. Since I can see Djokovic winning a 6-1 or 6-2 set at some point, I'll go with the games handicap rather than with the set one.

Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/australian-open/federer-v-djokovic-2016012701

[Sir Puntalot]

Updated link above.  

[Fader]

On 1/19/2016, 7:34:31, Fader said:

2pts J.Konta to win the 3rd Quarter 12/1 Bet365
She played so well against Venus and has a way of beating better calibre players than herself. I guess she can just raise her game for the big occasion. To win this quarter she'd have to beat Lisicki, Pliskova and Ivanovic/Keys. All winnable games for her as she has beaten big players in big slams. Beat Muguruza and Petkovic in the US Open last year and she beat Halep and Azarenka in a tournament after that albeit Azarenka retired in the second set. I don't see any of the players she is going up against beating her with ease so I'm taking this now

Well done Konta. Would of been -4pts today but thanks to Konta, +20pts for the day. Azarenka really surprised me. Konta has a great chance of making a grand slam final now in my opinion and I'll be backing her if the price is right. Raonic does the business but to me he looked abit tired today. Can he beat Murray? hmm unlikely but fingers crossed he raises his game for it. +83.00pts for the tournament. 

[Fader]

So we reach the Semi-Finals. I'm happy to see I have Aggy Radwanska in the womens Semi-Final and Raonic in the Mens, however I don't expect either to make the final, but I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Mens Semi-Finals (Part 1) Preview :

2.5pts R.Federer to beat N.Djokovic 27/10 Boylesports
2.5pts N.Djokovic to beat R.Federer 3-1 14/5 Sportingbet
I'm going to be abit sneaky with these bets as I think Federer has a chance but I think alot will depend on how well he starts. If he grabs the first set we could be in for a mammoth match but if he loses it, then I can't see him getting more than a set. Not massively involved in this match, so that's my little interest bet.

[Fader]

Womens Semi-Finals Preview :

2pts A.Radwanska to beat S.Williams 5/1 Betway
This match worries me alittle as Radwanska has never beaten Serena. She has won all 8 of the head-2-heads. She has won the last 5 on the hardcourt and every single one in straight sets... so this is a stupid bet. However, I do feel that Radwanska is in better form now than the last match they played in 2013. This kinda of match always has the potential to be a steamrolled 6-1 6-2 job for Serena which is a worry. Alot will depend on Radwanskas serve. It might not make any sense but I see value on Radwanska at 5/1.

[Fader]

4pts J.Konta to beat A.Kerber 5/2 Skybet
Konta is flying at the moment. She is on a crest of a wave and the luck is going her way in the draw too because if she was playing Azarenka I think she'd be beaten easy but Kerber is a good match-up for her in my opinion and I actually think she can win this with a few games to spare. I will just take the win though and try not to be greedy (2-0 Konta is 5/1 very tempting) my only slight worry is Konta having to play 2 games in 2 nights which is abit unfair if you ask me. Atleast she won against Zhang easy enough to keep her fresh. Konta to make a grand slam final. 

[CzechPunter]

6 hours ago, Fader said:

4pts J.Konta to beat A.Kerber 5/2 Skybet
Konta is flying at the moment. She is on a crest of a wave and the luck is going her way in the draw too because if she was playing Azarenka I think she'd be beaten easy but Kerber is a good match-up for her in my opinion and I actually think she can win this with a few games to spare. I will just take the win though and try not to be greedy (2-0 Konta is 5/1 very tempting) my only slight worry is Konta having to play 2 games in 2 nights which is abit unfair if you ask me. Atleast she won against Zhang easy enough to keep her fresh. Konta to make a grand slam final. 

Why unfair? Kerber is in the very same situation, isn't she? She did play a few hours earlier, but her match-up was tougher.

[Fader]

Yeah I meant unfair to the players really not just Konta. I would just imagine kerber to have better fitness than Konta but that's much assumption.  

[CzechPunter]

I'd agree with that and with the assumption as well. Hopefully Konta wins for you, but I somehow can't see her nerves holding up.

[owenclass]

8 hours ago, Fader said:

4pts J.Konta to beat A.Kerber 5/2 Skybet
Konta is flying at the moment. She is on a crest of a wave and the luck is going her way in the draw too because if she was playing Azarenka I think she'd be beaten easy but Kerber is a good match-up for her in my opinion and I actually think she can win this with a few games to spare. I will just take the win though and try not to be greedy (2-0 Konta is 5/1 very tempting) my only slight worry is Konta having to play 2 games in 2 nights which is abit unfair if you ask me. Atleast she won against Zhang easy enough to keep her fresh. Konta to make a grand slam final. 

Im sorry i have to disagree with your selection you have got to think sbout the occssion plus Kerber has got the best opportunity to reach a Grand slam final I know it is the same for Konta but this is a step up in class for her and i think nerves will be a big factor in this match and who will handle the pressure more and i feel Kerber by beating Azarenka the way she did is playing better so i think Kerber will win but in three sets

Edited January 27, 2016 by owenclass

[Fader]

29 minutes ago, owenclass said:

Im sorry i have to disagree with your selection you have got to think sbout the occssion plus Kerber has got the best opportunity to reach a Grand slam final I know it is the same for Konta but this is a step up in class for her and i think nerves will be a big factor in this match and who will handle the pressure more and i feel Kerber by beating Azarenka the way she did is playing better so i think Kerber will win but in three sets

Don't need to be sorry it's a gamble of a bet but I watched first set of aza kerber and kerbers level just dropped too many times and a player on form would of put them away but it's 5/2 for a reason I guess.  Good luck 

[owenclass]

Womens Semi final preview :

Angelique Kerber vs Johanna Konta

Over 20.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 7/4 paddy power

Kerber to win 2-1 11/4 paddy power

Kerber to lose the first set and win the match 7/2 paddy power

This match is so important for both players it is an opportunity to reach their first Grand slam and it maybe their only chance they have of reaching one so Konta will be so nervous because she has not played a match like this one in her whole career so with all this plus handling the pressure of the occasion you have to say her opponent should win this because she has played big matches before so has more experience on the big stage I expect it to be a tight match and Konta might win the first set but expect the experience of her opponent to come through in the end

Edited January 28, 2016 by owenclass

[owenclass]

On 17/01/2016, 21:50:24, owenclass said:

Milos Raonic to win Third Quarter 5/2 paddy power

 

Im hoping these players to do well in the first grand slam of the year and there could be a few surprises with Nishikori winning his quarter against Djokovic also Kyrgios has improved since last year and can win his quarter as Federer is not playing well Raonic can upset either Nadal or Wawrinka and Isner could give Murray a tough time

 

 

 

Im glad this bet came through

Edited January 28, 2016 by owenclass

[owenclass]

Australian Open specials

 

Final Setcast :

Serena Williams to beat Angelique Kerber 2-0 11/10 paddy power

Well you not going to get better odds on this bet during the match so i think you should predict who reaches the final and do the bet like this

Edited January 28, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Back A.Murray/M.Raonic - Over 3.5 sets for a 8/10 stake at 1.53 with Paddy Power

Raonic isn't as good as Murray just yet, but the progress he's made in recent months is simply unreal. He's a complete player now, plays with incredible composure, and his game isn't all about his serve anymore, which is well-evidence with the fact that he's played just two tie-breaks so far in this event (surprisingly, both came in the match against Robredo). Murray should win eventually, but I'd be quite shocked to see him doing that in three sets, hence the overs.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/australian-open/murray-v-raonic-2016012801

[potus]

20 hours ago, Fader said:

So we reach the Semi-Finals. I'm happy to see I have Aggy Radwanska in the womens Semi-Final and Raonic in the Mens, however I don't expect either to make the final, but I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Mens Semi-Finals (Part 1) Preview :

2.5pts R.Federer to beat N.Djokovic 27/10 Boylesports
2.5pts N.Djokovic to beat R.Federer 3-1 14/5 Sportingbet
I'm going to be abit sneaky with these bets as I think Federer has a chance but I think alot will depend on how well he starts. If he grabs the first set we could be in for a mammoth match but if he loses it, then I can't see him getting more than a set. Not massively involved in this match, so that's my little interest bet.

Firstly, congratulations on a very successful tournament. Also, well done on keeping us updated so regularly on your results and whether you are up/down - that's the way it should be on this site, lots of people could learn a lot from you.

I can't agree with taking Federer to beat Djokovic at those odds though. You must have seen their meetings in the finals of the previous two Grand Slams - they certainly weren't close enough to merit the odds of roughly 3/10 and 27/10 on offer. It's Djokovic who represents value here, not Federer. No way can he take three sets off Novak today. 

 

[Fader]

2 hours ago, potus said:

Firstly, congratulations on a very successful tournament. Also, well done on keeping us updated so regularly on your results and whether you are up/down - that's the way it should be on this site, lots of people could learn a lot from you.

I can't agree with taking Federer to beat Djokovic at those odds though. You must have seen their meetings in the finals of the previous two Grand Slams - they certainly weren't close enough to merit the odds of roughly 3/10 and 27/10 on offer. It's Djokovic who represents value here, not Federer. No way can he take three sets off Novak today. 

 

I actually agree with this. Hindsight is a wonderful thing however I do believe that I should of just went 3-1 Djokovic and left Federer out as he was never going to win that match. Thanks for your comments

[Fader]

Not the best of days but Djokovic winning 3-1 helped keep the losses down to just -1.5pts so +81.50pts for the tournament. 

[potus]

1 hour ago, Fader said:

I actually agree with this. Hindsight is a wonderful thing however I do believe that I should of just went 3-1 Djokovic and left Federer out as he was never going to win that match. Thanks for your comments

Which leads us on nicely to another point.....

 

You keep saying 'should of' as in the post above, or 'could of' or 'would of.' It's 'HAVE' not 'OF.' I'm not sure where you're getting 'of' from but the phrase is 'should have.' 

 

Think about it like this, 'I HAVE bet on Djokovic to win 3-1.' You wouldn't say 'I OF bet on Djokovic to win 3-1.' Hope that makes sense and helps.

[Fader]

44 minutes ago, potus said:

Which leads us on nicely to another point.....

 

You keep saying 'should of' as in the post above, or 'could of' or 'would of.' It's 'HAVE' not 'OF.' I'm not sure where you're getting 'of' from but the phrase is 'should have.' 

 

Think about it like this, 'I HAVE bet on Djokovic to win 3-1.' You wouldn't say 'I OF bet on Djokovic to win 3-1.' Hope that makes sense and helps.

I do not care about the grammar of my posts.  The majority of the people who follow my tips both from here and Twitter also do not.  If you do have a problem with it,  then it's your problem but I'm certainly not going to go through previews with a fine tooth comb checking the English of it all.  It was written well enough for you to understand I'm sure. 

[Fader]

Mens Semi-Finals (Part 2) Preview :

So we come to the final Semi-final and a chance to make some cash on an E/W shot of 50/1. Whatever happens in this match, Milos Raonic knows he has made progress. He will want to win ofcourse, but I feel he is well oncourse to being a top 4 player. I won't be getting too involved with this as I'm going to let the outright run. I expect Murray to win this something like 3-1 but I don't want to go against my outright bet. So I'm going to stick very small stakes on 3-2 Raonic because I believe in him

1.5pts M.Raonic to beat A.Murray 3-2 8/1 WilliamHill

[dave5perth]

Can some of the tennis experts on here tell me why Williams is as short as 1.17 for final? Surely if someone is capable of beating Azarenka on way to final then the 1.17 looks very short, or do the experts on here feel that the 1.17 is a decent bet? as she is as solid a fav as you can have barring injury in match.

[owenclass]

Mens Semi final preview :

 

Milos Raonic vs Andy Murray

Over 41.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Murray to win 3-1 5/2 paddy power

Murray to lose first set and win the match 4/1 paddy power

I have seen enough of Murrays opponent to suggest it will a tough match as i have been very impressed with him in this tournament he serms to have improved since he hired a new coach and his serve is more consistent so Murray will have to be on his game if he wants to break his impressive serve also his opponent is starting to come to the net more and is starting to mix it up a bit as his power game can only beat certain players so he has improved his allround game and we are seeing the results Murray though is one the best returners in the game so if there is anyone who can break his serve then he is the man Im thinking that the first set will go to a tie break and maybe his opponent can win that one but the next three will be tight with Murray coming through in the end but only just

 

Womens Doubles final preview :

 

Martina Hingis and Sania Mirza vs Andrea Hlavackova and Lucie Hradecka

Over 19.5 games 10/11 paddy power

We all know that Hingis and Mirza are the favourites but yheir opponents sre good doubles team that wont make it easy for them and i feel that it will be a tough match

Edited January 29, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Back Serena Williams (-5.5) to beat Angelique Kerber for a 8/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power

I guess that most would want to see Kerber win this and I have to admit that I'm firmly in that camp as well, but I simply have to bet Williams here if I'm to use reason. She's yet to drop a set in Melbourne so far and her victories against Sharapova and Radwanska were basically flawless, so it's hard to think that she's going to struggle against Kerber, who's going to play in her first ever Grand Slam final. I'm extremely worried about her falling apart mentally, as I've never had her as the most resilient player around, and her impressive comeback against Azarenka isn't something that would change my opinion on this - her game was starting to show a lot of cracks at that point and I believe that she would have lost the decider easily had she not saved those set points.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/australian-open/williams-v-kerber-2016012901