Australian Open 2016

[CzechPunter]

Back Roger Federer (-6.5) to beat Grigor Dimitrov for a 8/10 stake at 1.93 with Unibet

Back Marin Cilic (-3.5) to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Dominic Thiem (-2.5) to beat David Goffin for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back G.Simon/F.Delbonis - Over 3.5 sets for a 8/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Can't see Dimitrov doing much damage to Federer now that the Swiss number one is back in full swing, so I'll go with the games handicap, especially since fatigue could play a role for the Bulgarian. Cilic should also be able to complete his H2H hat-trick over Bautista-Agut, who's bound to be tired after two epic five-setters. Goffin has looked very average so far in this season, so I'll also go with Thiem, who's done absolutely nothing wrong over that same stretch. Finally, I think that there's a decent chance that the Simon-Delbonis match won't be over in three sets. In fact, it's the Argentinian who leads the H2H record between the two - and Simon is certainly not playing his best tennis right now.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-can-grigor-dimitrov-stop-roger-federer--2016012101

[clubgowi]

Australian Open: Serena Williams - Daria Kasatkina

Serena saw off her opponent with great ease and in double quick time, but I am certain she will face sterner opposition today and regardless of what happens this week, I am sure that we will be hearing an awful lot more about Daria Kasatkina, who looks the real deal. Kasatkina is only 18 yo, but has been pestering the life out of her coach and team to let her turn pro for a couple of years and when she started to see what Belinda Benic was doing, she could not wait any longer. After winning Junior Roland Garros last year, she entered the US Open and won five matches, winning through qualifying and into the last 32, this is now her second ever slam event and it is clear they hold few fears for her. In the interim, she has already got her ranking up to #69 by winning six matches in Moscow and beating Venus Williams in Auckland a couple of weeks ago, after dropping the first set on a tie break, which tells you much about her battling qualities and she is not going to wilt like most other 18 yo newcomers would on this stage, playing an all time great.

Dasha thinks she is better than Benic, she might not say so in as many words, but it is clear from interviews and this is a confident young woman: “I was a little bit upset when Bencic started to play earlier and she started to beat other players and showing results a little bit earlier than me."When she started to play with the pros, I was still playing juniors and I was talking with my coach telling him ‘I want to play pro, I want to start to play pro, why am I still playing juniors (?) and he told me like ‘Dasha, be cool, you just have to get some experience from everywhere and really, the experience from juniors, it was great. "A lot of experience and good memories, I don’t regret it.”  Benic is obviously a "fan" and said that "Kasatkina has a very different game, she plays smarter than the other players.”

Win, lose or draw, seven games is too much and I suspect more than me , that Dasha will be shocked herself if the match is not closer than that and with many opponents already having lost to Williams before they step onto court, that self belief and positive mental attitude is HUGE.

Daria Kasatkina +7 games 2.0 Pinnacle Sports/ Sportmarket Pro

 

[Fader]

One game away again from the handicap in the Isner match. Argh!! 2 bets won out of 5 ends a below average day and a day loss of 5pts 

Mens previews :

4pts D.Thiem -1.5 sets to beat D.Goffin Evens 888Sport
Thiem is in some good form as of late. He done well in the Brisbane event beating Cilic and now sees himself as a top 20 player. Both of these players are better on the clay really but I feel Thiem will fare better here. 3-1 Thiem

5pts Over 34.5 games Tsonga Vs Pierre Herbet 4/5 Skybet
Herbert can serve well. He has had to play 5 matches already to get to this stage and has dropped just 3 sets and beat decent opposition such as Andujar and Roger-Vasselin. He has served an average of 15 aces a match in the last three and so you'd expect that and with Tsongas low "return shot" percentage so far he'd take a few games here. Probably even a set as Tsonga rarely wins games easily. 

5pts T.Berdych -1.5 sets Vs Kyrgios 11/10 Paddypower
The crowd are always going to push Kyrgios on but I think in Berdych he will meet his match. They have never played eachother. I think berdych should get plenty of chances on the second serve and will also have lots of break points here. 3-1 Berdych.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Fader
odds were wrong

[Fader]

Womens previews :

4pts M.Gasparyan -3.5 games to beat Y.Putinseva Evens Bet365
2.5pts M.Gasparyan to beat Putinseva 2-0 17/10 888Sport
This is Gasparyans favourite surface and this is her favourite tournament to play in. The 21yr old has flourished so far this tournament. She has beaten Errani and Nara so far with Nara being in straight sets. She is 6ft tall and serves well. I think this is important when you look at her results. Errani is 5ft 5. Nara is 5ft 1. Putinseva is 5ft 4. When a 6 foot person who serves well is serving to someone only 5ft 4 you're going to get alot of joy and I see Gasp winning this 2-0. Putinseva much prefers the clay and Gasparyan beat Putinseva 2-0 in the only match in 2014

2pts Kulichkova to beat Suarez Navarro 5/2 Boylesport 
Although I backed Navarro to go a round or two further here I don't think she is playing well enough and could go out here. Kulichkova is on her favourite surface and Navarro you'd say her favourite surface is the clay. She hasn't played tough players, Navarro yet she is making hard work of it so I'm taking Kulichkova here.

 

[CzechPunter]

Back S.Wawrinka/L.Rosol - Over 33.5 games for a 8/10 stake at 1.94 with Unibet

Back John Isner (-1.5 sets) to beat Feliciano Lopez for a 8/10 stake at 1.86 with Unibet

Back Andrey Kuznetsov (-1.5 sets) to beat Dudi Sela for a 8/10 stake at 1.89 with Unibet

Back Andy Murray (-9.5) to beat Joao Sousa for a 8/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power

Rosol's ball-bashing should be good enough to push the match with Wawrinka over the line more often than not, the Swiss number two is yet to hit his peak by the looks of things. Also fancy Isner to win 3-1 at worst, Lopez looks a bit overrated to me nowadays and the 5-set epic against Pella only confirmed that. Kuznetsov has been the biggest surprise for me so far this season and I like the odds on him beating Sela easily in all honesty. Not only is he the better player of the two, but Sela also looked fairly tired against Verdasco. Finally, I guess that Murray will get the job done rather easily, Sousa is just the ideal match-up for him really, as he's got no big weapons to fall back on.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-low-key-match-ups-await-us-on-saturday-2016012106

[owenclass]

Nick Kyrgios vs Tomas Berdych

Over 42.5 games 10/11 paddy power

Over  3.5 sets 4/11 paddy power

This is the match of the round and you could not pick who is going to win You would say that Berdych is favourite as he has the big game experience but Kyrgios is getting better all the time Im sure both of them will win a set and after who knows who will win the match

Edited January 22, 2016 by owenclass

[delfino]

Berdych -2.5 games to beat Kyrgios @1.90 offered by bet365

I rate this calculation as bookies mistake. They probably count too much on "home" advantage, but we as bettors know that there is NOT any home factor in major tennis events

I like too much the current Berdych, he looks mature in my eyes as never before, and i thing he can go far but not to lift the trophy of course....Not that far...

From the other side i dislike Kyrgios and i do not  beileive at all on that person. Perhaps a better edition of Tomic but nothing more, not even near Raonic. He has weakness in his game, and the weakness is always there either you see it or not

ciao members! good luck to everybody! 

[Fader]

Decent day today. I got my money back on Kulichkova both on Bet365 and SkyBet so if anybody didn't on Boylespors I'll take off the 2pts from any profit on the page. +13.75pts for today and 36.75pts for the Open. I took Berdych on the handicap aswell as the sets so that's very annoying he gave that third set away. 

Edited January 22, 2016 by Fader

[Fader]

Just the one bet for me on the mens side :

Mens Previews :

3pts J.Isner -1.5 sets to beat F.Lopez 5/6 Paddypower 
I was not sure whether to go for this or not but when I looked into the stats I have taken it. Isner hasn't even had a break POINT against him let alone a break so worst case I see this going is if Lopez wins a tie break. I can't see Lopez winning 2 tie breaks for in that logic Id expect 3-0 / 3-1 Isner. Simple as that (hopefully

Edited January 22, 2016 by Fader

[Fader]

Womens previews :

5pts E.Makarova to beat K.Pliskova Evens Boylesports
2.5pts E.Makarova to win 2-0 12/5 Boylesports
Makarova has played Pliskova twice. Both were on the hard courts and Makarova won both. One of the wins was actually here last year in straight sets. She also has alot more experience which I think will count here. Pliskova not been this far before in a big slam and I think when it matters, Makarova will take the points. I'm also taking a small bet on the 2-0 win as that was also the result in both head-2-head matches and could well be again if Makarova takes the first set.

3pts A.Beck -2.5 games to beat L.Siegemund Evens Paddypower
I'm going for this bet based on how well Beck is playing. I watched her against Timea and she looked very good and was hitting the ball very well. It didn't help that Timea was double faulting for fun but Beck really took her chances and I see her winning this and covering the handicap.

5pts A.Ivanovic to beat M.Keys 13/10 Bet365
I think they have this price wrong and it will soon come down to evens so I'm taking the value now. Ana is far more experienced and has looked the better player so far. Keys hasn't truly been tested yet and she will be with this match. 2-1 Ivanovic for me.

[four-leaf]

Angelique Kerber (-6.5) to beat Madison Brengle 1.92 with Pinnaclesports

Brengles road will end here no doubt and it will end with Kerber being as dominant as she has been before against her. Kerber leads 3-0 and in every match this line has been covered. They have met two times last season and once already this season in Brisbane where Kerber won 6-3 6-0 and it could probably end with Kerber winning by about 8-9 games again.

 

[superkev45]

Getting this one early because of the standout price.

5pts on Nishikori to beat Tsonga at 5/6 (SportingBet)

Looks too big a price to me, probably inflated by some worries about Nishi's wrist injury. But unless the injury is serious, I can't see Tsonga stopping Nishi here.

Tsonga a flat track bully for me, great at beating the lower ranked players he should be beating but he has an awful record v the top players.

My most confident pick of the tourney so far, and a max bet at this price.

[four-leaf]

I agree, Nishi should beat Tsonga..

[four-leaf]

Back S.Johnson/F.Ferrer - Over 36.5 games for a 6/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnaclesports

Johnson does have quite a good serve and he tends to do well against defenders like Ferrer so I think he can push for a tie-break or two and he may even take a set which is required for this bet to come in.

[owenclass]

Do you think both Lopez Isner and Sela and Kuznetsov will five set matches

[CzechPunter]

Ugh, what an ugly streak have I gotten myself into again, not reading this year's Australian Open well at all. Good to see others doing much better though!

[CzechPunter]

Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to beat Kei Nishikori for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Bet365

Back N.Djokovic/G.Simon - 1st Set - Under 9.5 games for a 8/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power

Back Tomas Berdych (-1.5 sets) to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut for a 8/10 stake at 1.59 with Unibet

First of all, Paddy Power are offering strange odds on the Under 9.5 games in Djokovic/Simon 1st Set. Others have it somewhere around 1.65 and even that might be value given how well Djokovic starts his matches, so the 1.90 simply needs to be taken with a max stake. Berdych should also beat Bautista in a reasonably quick fashion, his quality and form are bound to carry him through. Finally, I somehow can't bring myself to back Nishikori, even though I'm in a dreadful form at the moment, so perhaps I'm misreading things again. Anyway, I saw Nishikori's matches against Krajicek and GGL and if this is what he's going to bring against Tsonga, he's going to lose. I'm not worried about the wrist injury, that might not affect him at all, but he's just not playing like a top 10 player right now. Tsonga is - and that's why I'll be backing him at odds against.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-djokovic-faces-simon-federer-plays-against-goffin-2016012301

[Fader]

4 out of 5 winners then. Ivanovic a set and serving for 5-2 up  and then 3-1 up in the third set still loses 2-1. Brilliant. +11.50pts for the day. +48.25pts for the Open.

Mens previews :

4pts K.Nishikori -1.5 sets to beat Tsonga 6/4 Paddypower
I think it's a good match up for Nishikori this. They have played eachother 7 times and Nishikori has won 4 of those but more importantly is the fact he has won 4 out of the 5 hard court battles. His movement will be the key factor for me and his returning shots. I just hope if he gets through he can give Djokovic some problems.

4pts Over 36.5 games T.Berdych Vs Bautista-Agut Evens Ladbrokes
2pts Bautista-Agut to beat T.Berdych 
It wouldn't suprise me if Agut came close to winning this. They have played 3 hard court matches and Agut has won two of those including the last one in 2014. He has played really well this week and produced abit of a suprise not only beating Cilic but in straight sets. He looks to be serving really well and I think the difference between him and Kyrgios will be the solidarity of the serve.

3pts R.Federer -7.5 to beat D.Goffin 4/6 Bet365
I dont see Goffin giving Federer any problems atall. Federer beat Goffin 6-2 6-2 last time they played on the outdoor hard. He has only dropped one set to Dimitrov and Goffin has really struggled to get here in my eyes. I see atleast one of these sets being a 6-1/6-2 job so if it's 3-0 and even one set is like that you'd expect this to be covered.

[Fader]

Womens Preview :

2.5pts B.Bencic to beat M.Sharapova 12/5 Bet365
This will be Sharas first big test. Bencic at such a young age will in my eyes be world number 1 one day. Davis took a set from Shara and Bencic can beat her. They have never met and it should be a close match really. Maybe the age factor will come into it, Belinda is 10 years younger than Shara. If she holds her nerve she can win here. Come on Bencic.

4pts D.Gavrilova to beat Suarez Navarro 11/10 Skybet
Will go with the Aussie here. I think Navarro has had it easy so far (which is why i backed her at silly prices) no i don't think she can win the tournament but if she raised her game to her highest level she could go far and has shown some fantastic form. Gavrilova is doing that right now..playing at her highest level and that and the crowd will help her win this in my opinion. Winner plays Aggy 

[CzechPunter]

Back Daria Gavrilova to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Bet365

Back Annika Beck (+6.5) to beat Angelique Kerber for a 8/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365

Back Maria Sharapova (-4) to beat Belinda Bencic for a 8/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway

Agree on Gavrilova, not sure why she's the underdog, it's a coin-flip at worst for her given how she's playing right now. The +6.5 handicap also looks coverable for Beck against Kerber, she's more dangerous than Doi an Dulgheru, who both managed to cover this line. In the Sharapova-Bencic match, I'll go with the Russian, Bencic just doesn't look ready yet. She looked fragile against Bondarenko and her second serve looked especially week, which is going to hurt her big time if she stops hitting her first serves against Sharapova. Bencic is a future Grand Slam winner for sure, but the trophy will reamin way out of her reach this time around imo.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-the-question-is-simple--williams-or-azarenka--2016012303

[clubgowi]

Australian Open: Carla Suarez Navarro - Daria Gavrilova

Carla Suarez Navarro had a nightmare summer last year, losing in seven consecutive matches from just before Wimbledon, stretching to beyond the US Open, losing in R1 at two slams and two Masters events and top ten ranked players (she was #8 prior to that dire run) just do not do that ! Her overall slam record is not that good and in 28 main draw appearances, she has only made the quarters four times and never any further. She has steadied the ship with recent results, but since Rome last year, she is 0-6 versus top 20 players and 7-11 against anyone in the top 50, it is possible to pick holes in many of those seven wins too, with one retirement, three going the distance and the other three coming against opponents in very poor form. Gavrilova is one of the next wave of up and coming Russian players we touched upon earlier in the week, except that she has changed her nationality to Australian (1), something that went through last month, so all the home support will be on her side today. The 21yo is already ranked inside the top 40 and that will climb after this event, she loves hard courts and won the US Open as the #1 ranked junior in the world. She beat Petra Kvitova in R2 and followed up with a no less impressive 11-9 third set win over Kristina Mladenovic on Friday. After which she said “I’ve got nothing in my head. I’m just really excited and I want to hug the whole stadium, I just want to play again." I want to play again on Sunday, I’m just really happy, I can’t explain it.”

Already a "national hero" in double quick time after playing her part in winning the Hopman Cup, she can ride the momentum into the last eight against the very beatable Spanish player. The two have met once before in Tokyo late in 2014, CSN won 7-6 6-3 but it is fair to say the younger girl has been the big improver since, there were 11 breaks in that match and Gavrilova looks much more solid a server now.

Daria Gavrilova to beat Carla Suarez Navarro 2.10 general quote..............2.12 Pinnacle/Sportmarket

 

[owenclass]

Australian Open Specials

 

Name the Finalists:

Serena Williams vs Victoria Azarenka 5/2 paddy power

Well at the start of the tournament i was not sure about Serena reaching yet another Grand dlam final but she is slowly getting better in every round and i know there will be tougher matches to come but i feel she is starting to get back to her best and Azarenka loves this Granf slam where she has won twice before and is playing the best out of all the players

Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray 11/8 paddy power

Novak Djokovic vs Stanislas Wawrinka 9/2 paddy power

I know this looks like the obvious bet but i feel that these two are the best players in the tournament and who loves this Australian Open and these odds will get even shorter when we get to the Quarter finals the only players that can beat these two are Federer and Wawrinka and Wawrinka is the only other player to have won this title in the last five years and can reach the final again if he plays his best

 

Both bets together as a multiple is 10/1 paddy power

Edited January 24, 2016 by owenclass

[potus]

It's a bit worrying that the two main contributors to this thread have contrasting opinions for so many of today's matches. I think Fader and CzechPunter need to get together for a bit of a discussion because their views shouldn't be that far apart from each other!

[owenclass]

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Tomas Berdych

Over 37.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 3.5 sets 4/5 paddy power

This is not going to be easy for Berdych as his opponent is playing well and can definitely get a set of Berdych but expect Berdychs class to come through a tough match

Carla Suarez Navarro vs Daria Gavrilova

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Well Suarez Navarro is the favourite but her opponent is the star of the tournament so far and can make things difficult because Suarez Navarro can be a bit inconistent when she has a chance of going far in a tournament and in a Grand slam you have always got a chance against her and her opponent can exploit this

 

Edited January 24, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

I should've known better about Berdych, very reminiscent of how he self-destructed against Simon in last year's Wimbledon.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I should've known better about Berdych, very reminiscent of how he self-destructed against Simon in last year's Wimbledon.

Berdych eventually stepped up to the plate and won but yes you should have known better but you did better further down the thread since I think Beck is underrated and you have probably done the right thing there and you should be right about Gavrilova too and Sharapova was a void.

Edited January 24, 2016 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Dasha is far to confident for CSN to have a chance in this one. Dasha owns CSN big time at the start of the match. She will win in straight sets.

[CzechPunter]

Back Andy Murray (-7.5) to beat Bernard Tomic for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Yep, when it's not on it's just not on, so I'll just go for a bet or two from now on for the rest of the Grand Slam so as to not bury myself too deep. On Monday, I'll back Murray to crush Tomic. I still have the outright on Tomic going on, but, given how the two have been playing up to this point, I guess that the Australian can only hope for Murray to be thinking about his family instead of tennis. They've already played 7 sets against each other, with Murray winning all of them - 6-3 6-2 6-3 6-1 7-5 6-3 6-2. That's how bad the match-up is for Tomic and I don't see anything positive for him that would turn things around.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-wawrinka-faces-raonic-in-monday-s-highlight-2016012402

[four-leaf]

You never know about womens tennis. Momentum can change quickly. I really thought Dasha would win second set. Never expected CSN to come back.

[CzechPunter]

Yep, there you have it. Completely self-destructed . The only positive is that I trust Radwanska more against CSN than I'd against Gavrilova, so at least the 3.75 quarter bet should come in hopefully.