Australian Open 2016

[superkev45]

All the Nishikori profit is going on

 

Serena Williams to beat Maria Sharapova at 3/10 (StanJames)

It's a stand-out price (1/4 generally) for such a one-sided H2H. I think Williams looks hungry and Shara hasn't looked that great anyway. Even if it turns out to be a contest, Williams will get the job done like she always does.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN:

MONFILS TO DEFAT KUZNETSOV @ 1.3 on pinnaclesports

Monfils looks very good so far, not losing a set. Kuznetsov has good very attacking game but Monfils' consistency should be too much for him.

 

[Fader]

3,5pts profit today then. Could of been so different. Few chokers but hey ho. +51.75pts on the open now. 

Mens previews :

3.75pts G.Monfils -5.5 games to beat A.Kuznetsov Evens Betfred
Monfils is going well so far. He has dispatched of everyone put him front of him with ease and I expect him to win 3-0/3-1 in this match. They have played before on the hardcourt not long ago in 2015 and Monfils won in straight sets and the crowd will be on his side too as he is a pure entertainer. 

5pts Over 43.5 games M.Raonic Vs S.Wawrinka 4/5 Skybet
Will stick to the games in this one as I already have the outright on Milos. Will be a close match in my opinion. Will be atleast 2 tie-breaks also in my opinion. You'd expect Wawrinka to grind it out however I hear he is under the weather and if his game isn't going on song he could lose this one. He normally wins the head-2-heads but lost the last on the hard (albeit a small event really) Id expect a 3-1 Wawrinka in my head at this point but I'm sticking with the games. Prediction 6-7 7-6 4-6 4-6

[Fader]

Womens preview : 

4pts J.Konta to beat E.Makarova 6/4 Bet365
This one should be close you'd think. Konta looks strong and composed and the head-2-head reads one match and one win for Konta (albeit on the grass) and she won that one easy (6-2 6-4) you'd say that Makarova is obviously the better player and she has alot of weapons but if Konta can raise her game just alittle she can most certainly win this. 

[owenclass]

11 hours ago, Fader said:

Womens preview : 

4pts J.Konta to beat E.Makarova 6/4 Bet365
This one should be close you'd think. Konta looks strong and composed and the head-2-head reads one match and one win for Konta (albeit on the grass) and she won that one easy (6-2 6-4) you'd say that Makarova is obviously the better player and she has alot of weapons but if Konta can raise her game just alittle she can most certainly win this. 

I think the overs is a good bet as well as i can see it going to three sets

Edited January 25, 2016 by owenclass

[owenclass]

22 hours ago, owenclass said:

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Tomas Berdych

Over 37.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 3.5 sets 4/5 paddy power

This is not going to be easy for Berdych as his opponent is playing well and can definitely get a set of Berdych but expect Berdychs class to come through a tough match

Carla Suarez Navarro vs Daria Gavrilova

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Over 2.5 sets 5/4 paddy power

Well Suarez Navarro is the favourite but her opponent is the star of the tournament so far and can make things difficult because Suarez Navarro can be a bit inconistent when she has a chance of going far in a tournament and in a Grand slam you have always got a chance against her and her opponent can exploit this

 

At last im successful with these two bets Hopefully we can keep it going and im going for five sets in the Raonic Wawrinka match

[owenclass]

Day seven preview

 

Johanna Konta vs Ekaterina Makarova

Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I think Konta has a chance in this match as she is playing great at the moment and if she continues the way she is playing then i can ser her reaching the quarter finals but she is facing a good player who has reached a grand slam final so it is not going to be easy and i can see the match going to a third set

Milos Raonic vs Stanislas Wawrinka

Over 43.5 games 4/5 paddy power

Wawrinka to win 3-1 11/4 paddy power

This match is too close to call even though Wawrinka is favourite for the match but he will have to break his opponents serve as it is one of the best in the business so expect one or two tie breaks in the match with Wawrinka just coming through in four sets

Edited January 25, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Back N.Djokovic/K.Nishikori - 1st Set - Under 9.5 games for a 8/10 stake at 2.25 with Paddy Power

Going for the very same bet on Djokovic on Tuesday as I did on Sunday, it just has to be value at 2.25 based on the statistics alone. Djokovic is yet to go over the 9.5 games line in the first set in this season and the H2H record between him and Nishikori also backs this bet. Over 7 matches, the 1st sets were as follows: 6-1 6-2 4-6 6-2 6-1 6-3 6-1. Yep, just one tight set in there, from the famous 2014 duel that Djokovic lost. With that in mind, this is a bet that I just can't ignore at odds so well above evens.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-can-nishikori-and-berdych-upset-djokovic-and-federer--2016012501

[Fader]

Raonic 

Murray next on your conquest 

 

sorry i got abit excited there. He has Monfils first lol

Edited January 25, 2016 by Fader

[Fader]

Konta 

[Duckets]

M keys vs s Zhang over 21.5 @ 5/6 is good bet both players playing well, zhang is playing great tennis at the moment 7/4 for her to win looks like a good price

i have backed her last 3 matches at good prices, keys is playing very well too so its hard to back either player to win but the overs look like a decent bet here.

If i had to pick a winner i will probably go with zhang she has beaten really good opponents and the price is good.

[Fader]

Konta makes history and Raonic beats Wawrinka. Fantastic matches. I just wish I could of been up to watch the Raonic match. Why couldn't they have that on when Murray was on. Nobody cares about an obvious 3 setter with Murray/Tomic. Anyway +6.25 but I will take the 1p for Isner to win the tournament so +5.25 for the day and +57.00pts for the tournament thread.

[clubgowi]

Australian Open: Novak Djokovic vs Kei Nishikori

Kei Nishikori is now 26 yo and really needs to get that slam breakthrough win sooner rather than later, otherwise it might never come. He really ought to have won the 2014 US Open, but was a bit of a no show in the final, after beating Novak Djokovic in four sets in the semis, as you might expect and as you have to, to beat the world number one in any match, let alone a slam semi, Nishikori played all the big points well. It was no one off as the Japanese star is 2-2 with Djokovic on hard courts and he will probably fancy his chances today after watching Nole hit 100 (!) unforced errors against Gilles Simon in R4. This is not totally unknown for Djokovic (ok, maybe the number of u/e were) , but he was similarly making a lot of errors  in build up to that meeting in New York. Nishikori takes the ball very early, cuts out angles, stands high up in court and all that will increase the pressure on the #1 and I would certainly not rule out another upset . He was very relaxed and in confident mood after beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in three sets in R4 and clearly facies his chances ..............


Q. You are always concerned about your physic situation. Your body, wrist, legs. Are you okay now?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, it's all good. Feeling very good. My body and also tennis is very good. Very looking forward to play next round.

Q. What would you say is the most difficult thing when facing Djokovic for you?
KEI NISHIKORI: I think the biggest thing is he doesn't miss, you know. He doesn't give you easy points, any free points. I have to, you know, be the one to dictate. I think he's serving well, too.

It always makes tough player.

Q. You won in straight sets here. How much does that mean in terms of in case the next match goes, I don't know, five sets, four hours? Do you think you'll be able to keep the same level throughout the match?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, for sure. It's great to finish straight sets always, especially Grand Slam is two weeks, so it's long time. Takes some time than usual tournament. It's great to finish quick.

But actually, yeah, I'm feeling great. You know, even I think play four or five sets, I should be okay, especially live close. You know, it's easy for body. Yeah, I have good feeling. Yeah, like I said, looking forward to play next one.

Q. How do you feel both you and Novak have developed since that match at the US Open?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, that gives me a lot of confidence to play against him again, but we played in London and he, you know, kind of destroy me. It wasn't easy match for me. It's different condition, but I hope I can make some changes and try to play better.

Yeah. I'm ready to beat him again.

Q. Today's match was quite one sided compared to previous encounters with Jo. What's different this time around? What's going well?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, I'm surprised that I broke him early every set. I was returning well today, so that makes I think tough for him to have good serve all the time.

Yeah, seems like he doesn't have many first serve in today. That makes me easy to return my game. Yeah, I think today was, you know, very good tactics for me. Played very patient.

When I have opportunity, you know, I tried to come in sometimes. Using my forehands more and very aggressive certain moment. Yeah, I felt like everything was working well today.

Q. Few days ago, Verdasco, after he beat Nadal, said that he had watched his match versus Nadal seven years earlier ten times. Have you watched your match versus Djokovic at the US Open many times or never? Was there a reaction when you watched it?
KEI NISHIKORI: Yeah, I do watch it sometimes when I want some, you know, confidence or, you know...

That match I played one of the best tennis in my life, so, you know, I watch couple times. Yeah, I'm sure try to watch again before next match, I mean, if he wins today.

Yeah, I tried to learn many things from the previous match.


Despite half of his ten grand slam wins coming at the Australian Open, Djokovic is 3-5 here in quarter finals and this is clearly his most vulnerable round in Melbourne, especially as his qf record in the other three slams is 23-3.

over 35 games 1.917 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket.

Kei Nishikori to beat Novak Djokovic 6.92 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket

 

[Fader]

Mens Quarter-Final Previews :

5pts R.Federer -6 games to beat T.Berdych 6/5 Bet36
Played eachother many times but Federer has won the last three on the hardcourts. He brushed aside Goffin with such ease and I think he will win this one 3-0/3-1 also. Either way atleast one of those sets again I believe will be a 6-2 job so I'm happy to test this handicap. Berdych shouldn't even be here in my eyes. Agut should of beat him. Especially that second set. Once it went 1-1 Berdych just took control. Prediction 6-4 6-3 6-4

2pts K.Nishikori to beat N.Djokovic 11/2 Bet365
I think I'll take a punt on Kei here. No doubt Djokovic is the big favourite and it's very unlikely Nishikori wins here but Novak doesn't look that great right now and although this could easily be a 6-1 6-2 6-1 job to Novak, it could also be a tight Kei win.. I'm blabbering... Nish to win. Come on Nish!!  I want a Nishikori Vs Raonic final!

[Fader]

Womens Quarter-Final previews : 

I'll be leaving Aggys match alone as I have her for the outright and I don't see too much value but I'll take 6pts S.Williams to beat M.Sharapova 2-0 4/6 Bet365
Serena's dominance of Sharapova is ridiculous. Played eachother 20 times. Serena has won 18 of those including winning the last 17 in a row and the last 3 on the hard courts in straight sets. I'd be amazed if Shara won this. Serena in 2.

[Fader]

got to feel sorry for Keys. Can barely stand. Thigh bandaged up and still giving Zhang a game. She's in tears.

[potus]

This is Wimbledon 2013 all over again.

 

I'm a big believer in learning from mistakes and past events and using that to improve for the future and that's exactly what we must do here.

 

Djokovic is clearly the best player in the tournament - and the world - but the sea has parted on Murray's side of the draw and he now has a clear run to the final. Compare this to Djokovic's potential route which reads 5-setter against Simon, followed by matches against first Nishikori and then Federer. Like Wimbledon 2013, that route has to take its toll and Murray's freshness will win the day.

 

Suddenly Murray's chances of winning the tournament have got a lot bigger but his odds are still much the same. 7/2 is a great price and that's without shopping around, you may find a bit better than that. If Djokovic frightens you, which is perfectly understandable then you can still make a profit if Murray just reaches the final by taking Murray each way to win the tournament.

[owenclass]

I do fancy  Radwanska vs Navarro to be three sets i have not got time to write it up but my last few bets have worked out so good luck to everyone

[owenclass]

Roger Federer vs Tomas Berdych

Over 35.5 games 4/7 paddy power

Over 3.5 sets evens paddy power

This could be the match that we see Federer struggling to win this match as i think his opponents groundstrokes and power from the baseline could trouble Federer and i feel this will be Federer toughest match of the tournament so far He had it easy against Goffin but this opponent is a better player and if gets his game and tactics right then he might just win but in the Federer will probably produce his class and win in four or five sets

[CzechPunter]

Back Milos Raonic (-1.5 sets) to beat Gael Monfils for a 8/10 stake at 1.61 with Paddy Power

Wednesday looks set to be yet another cracking day in Melbourne, as we've got two very intriguing match-ups to look forward to on the men's side of things. The match between Andy Murray and David Ferrer is the obvious highlight, but, considering how well Raonic seems to be playing at the moment, I think that we'll be in for some exciting moments in the other match as well. There won't be as many long rallies, of course, as Raonic will be trying to kill the points off before Monfils outplays him from the back of the baseline, but that doesn't mean that the match will be boring - far from it. Paddy Power have Murray and Raonic as the favourites and that's quite logical, but are there any bets to be had?

When I take a look at the match between Murray and Ferrer, all I can see is the H2H record between the two, which currently stands at 12-6 in Murray's favour. That doesn't look too ugly for the Spaniard, but a closer look reveals that the numbers do lie a little bit. A few years back, Ferrer was the dominant force in this rivalry and he was able to crush Murray whenever they met on clay, but things have changed incredibly quickly and it's Murray who's very much in the driving seat nowadays. The culmination of the trend probably came in last year's Roland Garros, where the Scot was finally able to outplay Ferrer on the Spaniard's favourite surface, beating him 7-6 6-2 5-7 6-1 in what was a pretty straightforward effort. Since then, he's also managed to beat Ferrer in Paris and London - and those matches were also rather easy for the Scot.

The one thing that I'm worried about is that Ferrer has been tremendous up to this point, but I wonder whether that's because of him playing so well or because of him facing sub-par opposition. Don't get me wrong - he's had to play some very good players, but he hasn't had to face any difficult match-ups. Gojowczyk just doesn't have what it takes to compete at the highest level, Hewitt was under tremendous pressure, Johnson is no match for Ferrer from the back of the baseline, and Isner has always struggled against the current world's number eight. That's going to change on Wednesday, as Ferrer will once again face the same old problem - how to beat a Big Four player. Of course, facing Federer would be an even bigger issue for him, but Murray isn't much easier. Unless Murray has an off-day, he'll beat Ferrer without dropping more than a single set. The odds and lines aren't particularly appealing, however, so I'll stay away from the match betting-wise.

Now - according to the record books, Monfils should have the upper hand against Raonic, as he beat him in both of their previous meetings. That was back in 2011 and 2013, however - and we all know what's happened since then. Monfils has gone through some serious health problems and is now pretty much relegated to the second tier of players, while Raonic is slowly making his way up to the highest echelons of the game. He still needs to get a few big results in order to be a major force, but he did take the first steps to achieve that by beating Federer in Brisbane and Wawrinka in the previous round here.

I know that Federer was a bit ill in Brisbane and there are also some rumors about Wawrinka not being completely fit in Melbourne either, but I don't think that it can take anything away from the fact that he's playing his best tennis ever. What's more, it's also possible to still have a few doubts about Monfils at this point, as he's yet to face a strong player in this season. Raonic will be a massive step up from Sugita, Mahut, Robert and Kuznetsov - and I'm not completely sure that he'll be able to overcome this particular challenge. I, for one, will be backing the Canadian on the set handicap.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-murray-faces-ferrer-raonic-takes-on-monfils-2016012601

(sorry for the spam, but I'm posting the full thing here today as the link may become inaccessible at some point due to maintenance)

[Fader]

I guess Nish is taking the 6-2 6-2 6-2 job I mentioned then. Complete bottle job of a performance. 

[k7814]

Is it me or is relying on tennis players so unpredictable? 

Slightest thing putting them off.  Weak emotional sport psycology..  Or just not caring? 

That walk off the last week or 2 was ridiculious aswell

 

Not sure how you guys do it

Edited January 26, 2016 by k7814

[Fader]

as good a day as I could expect really. 2 out of 3 winners. i didn't really expect Nish to win but it was worth a small dabble. +8.00pts for the day. I will take off the 2pts for the outright on Nishikori and Suarez Navarro to take me to +63.00pts for the tournament

[Fader]

so, we finish the Quarter finals tonight. I will leave the Murray game as the bookies always make sure there is no value in his matches. 

Mens QF Previews, Part 2 : 

5pts M.Raonic -3.5 games to beat G.Monfils 4/5 Ladbrokes
I noticed when watching the highlights of the Raonic Vs Wawrinka match is, what Milos is doing very well is attacking at the net. His big serve is awesome and then he quickly gets to the net. I think that's what Nish should of done Vs Djokovic. Attack and go to the net. Try something different. Monfils will want to be hitting it from the baseline and I think if Milos plays like he did against Wawrinka he should cover this handicap pretty easily. But Monfils is a true athlete and he could take a set here so I don't want to risk too much on the set betting or handicap set betting and will just go for the games handicap as I don't expect Monfils to get 2 sets. Raonic is playing brilliantly. Long may it continue to the title.

[Fader]

Womens QF Previews. Part 2 :

6pts V.Azarenka to beat Kerber 2-0 4/6 Bet365
Much similar to the Serena / Sharapova match, Azarenka has the curse over Kerber. They have played eachother 6 times and Azarenka has won all 6. 5 of those on the hard courts and 3 of those 5 won in straight sets. Most importantly those 3 were since late 2015 so not long ago atall. I don't see Kerber winning atall, and so it's either this set bet or the games bet and this could easily be 7-6 6-4 so the games handicap is no good for me. Azarenka in 2.

2pts J.Konta to beat S.Zhang 2-1 3/1 Ladbrokes
Anyone following me on this thread will have Konta at 12/1 to win this match so I won't be getting too involved in this one. I do feel it will be close though because I think Konta may not perform to her highest ability now that she is a favourite instead of the underdog. 

[liquidglass]

Monfils To Tame The Canadian Bully

This clearly represents a very interesting match-up, and perhaps in terms of expectation, the match everybody should be looking up to - and for many good reasons. Firstly, Gael Monfils is a player that the tennis world has always recognised as having the sort of huge potential that he has never being able to half justify. At 29, it may just seem like he has exhausted all his opportunities and desire to show more than what he has shown so far or perhaps not. I feel that Gael is just so talented that he is one of those players that cannot be assessed by default standards in terms of what can be expected of him in a given situation. He belongs to that exclusive group of players like Federer, Del Potro, Sharapova, Serena Williams that can just turn up back in court after a very long absence and just resume from where they left off like nothing happened. Monfil's modus operandi has always been to do enough to tackle what has been put in front of him, and will continue to fine-tune his game to conquer every new level. The thing of note here is that Monfils is winning, and has built a streak regardless of how the opposition has been defined.

The other point worthy of note is Monfils head to head record with Raonic which stands at 2-0. The important thing to focus on here is the manner of victory in those 2 meetings. Raonic only profitting from one tie-break set in 5 sets played. The other 4 clearly won by monfils in comfort mode. For any player looking to beat Raonic, their chance will always be weighed up on their ability to deal with the monstrous serve. monfils looks to have that question fully taken care of. Furthermore, I expect monfils to always be favourite by miles once ball is in play. even then where has all this hype about Raonic being in sublime form come from? From the fact he recently beat Federer?? Give me a break! Raonic really has to show much more than serve-bashing to convince me. Against Wawrinka....well...he fell over the winning line and I do not trust him one bit. Monfils is interesting because he comes under the radar and is hard to assess. Is there not this sort of player in most slams? I always believe that if you can see it clearly, then it probably is not likely to happen...like most expected from Nishikori today. I am expecting Monfils to sail through giving this tip 8/10. Good luck all!

[Fader]

26 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

Monfils To Tame The Canadian Bully

This clearly represents a very interesting match-up, and perhaps in terms of expectation, the match everybody should be looking up to - and for many good reasons. Firstly, Gael Monfils is a player that the tennis world has always recognised as having the sort of huge potential that he has never being able to half justify. At 29, it may just seem like he has exhausted all his opportunities and desire to show more than what he has shown so far or perhaps not. I feel that Gael is just so talented that he is one of those players that cannot be assessed by default standards in terms of what can be expected of him in a given situation. He belongs to that exclusive group of players like Federer, Del Potro, Sharapova, Serena Williams that can just turn up back in court after a very long absence and just resume from where they left off like nothing happened. Monfil's modus operandi has always been to do enough to tackle what has been put in front of him, and will continue to fine-tune his game to conquer every new level. The thing of note here is that Monfils is winning, and has built a streak regardless of how the opposition has been defined.

The other point worthy of note is Monfils head to head record with Raonic which stands at 2-0. The important thing to focus on here is the manner of victory in those 2 meetings. Raonic only profitting from one tie-break set in 5 sets played. The other 4 clearly won by monfils in comfort mode. For any player looking to beat Raonic, their chance will always be weighed up on their ability to deal with the monstrous serve. monfils looks to have that question fully taken care of. Furthermore, I expect monfils to always be favourite by miles once ball is in play. even then where has all this hype about Raonic being in sublime form come from? From the fact he recently beat Federer?? Give me a break! Raonic really has to show much more than serve-bashing to convince me. Against Wawrinka....well...he fell over the winning line and I do not trust him one bit. Monfils is interesting because he comes under the radar and is hard to assess. Is there not this sort of player in most slams? I always believe that if you can see it clearly, then it probably is not likely to happen...like most expected from Nishikori today. I am expecting Monfils to sail through giving this tip 8/10. Good luck all!

I think equally important is distinguishing the difference between the Raonic of 2011/2013 and the Raonic of today. Raonic is no longer just a serve merchant. It sounds like you haven't seen him play for a while. The Raonic of old would never of been able to beat Federer and he most certainly wouldn't of beaten Wawrinka once pegged back to 2-2.

If Raonic was just a server he would of won the majority of his matches by tie breaks. How many sets has he won on tie breaks?

Edited January 26, 2016 by Fader

[liquidglass]

1 minute ago, Fader said:

I think equally important is distinguishing the difference between the Raonic of 2011/2013 and the Raonic of today. Raonic is no longer just a serve merchant. It sounds like you haven't seen him play for a while. The Raonic of old would never of been able to beat Federer and he most certainly wouldn't of beaten Wawrinka once pegged by to 2-2.

If Raonic was just a server he would of won the majority of his matches by tie breaks. How many sets has he won on tie breaks?

I think I will readily side with you on the point of Raonic having some sort of improvement in his overall play especially with his ground strokes and occasional volleying sporting a delightful mix in his play. How much further the improvement in his game has brought him is still open to debate.I do not know if I fully agree with you when you say the Raonic of old would not have beaten Federer. i think he would have at some point considering the the Fed is like a stone being rolled downhill these days. and yes, people constantly refer to Federer and how good he is playing. The only way you can assess how good fed is playing is how often he beats Djoker or murray as the others do not really count. Federer also could sometimes be frigid too. Another thing I need to point out to you is this overwhelming stats pertaining to 5setters. When a player is 2sets to love up in most cases, and they get caught at 2-2, they somehow eventually win the final set. It does not matter who is playing who, just a very frequent thing that i have observed with interest. Also excuses were made for Wawrinka even though we could not determine the validity. Monfils tends to hit those awkward, ballony, annoying shots that could pose Raonic loads of problems. i think this is more a case of Monfils having Raonic's number even with the h2h at 2-0. I really cannot envisage a bright future for Raonic with reference to this game.

[Fader]

It literally was probably only a year ago I was backing any player to beat Raonic every game he played. There was so much value there as his reputation very much preceeded him, however I have to admit he has improved greatly with his new coach. He has got him playing aggressive and he has kept the serve and improved the second serve. He also cut down on his unforced errors. 

I'm sorry but we will agree to disagree with this " When a player is 2sets to love up in most cases, and they get caught at 2-2, they somehow eventually win the final set. It does not matter who is playing who" that's just bonkers in my eyes. I also think you're not giving him enough credit for winning the match. His return game has come on leaps and bounds. I think the difference from 2013 is 19% return points won to 37% 2016. Same with the Federer game. 25% in 2014 to 36% 2016. 

Did you have Wawrinka to win by any chance?

[liquidglass]

24 minutes ago, Fader said:

It literally was probably only a year ago I was backing any player to beat Raonic every game he played. There was so much value there as his reputation very much preceeded him, however I have to admit he has improved greatly with his new coach. He has got him playing aggressive and he has kept the serve and improved the second serve. He also cut down on his unforced errors. 

I'm sorry but we will agree to disagree with this " When a player is 2sets to love up in most cases, and they get caught at 2-2, they somehow eventually win the final set. It does not matter who is playing who" that's just bonkers in my eyes. I also think you're not giving him enough credit for winning the match. His return game has come on leaps and bounds. I think the difference from 2013 is 19% return points won to 37% 2016. Same with the Federer game. 25% in 2014 to 36% 2016. 

Did you have Wawrinka to win by any chance?

Yes I did. But it was one of those bets I just took blindly as i was too tired to research. I believe that you are more up to date with the stats than myself. However I just believe that tipping most times requires us to use more tools than we care to have available, and also there always is that point in trying to analyze a tip where stats can sometimes become a hindrance. I tend to use stats, odds, and circumstance to reach most of my conclusions in  ways that it work for me. No question I agree you are spot on with the stats, but here I realise that I need to be logging into my "circumstance" instead as it just gives me a confident natural feeling of been right. Good luck either way!!!

Edited January 26, 2016 by liquidglass