Australian Open 2016

[homunculus]

On 11. 1. 2016, Fader said:

draw is on Friday so the price may shorten. 

2.5pts E/W M.Raonic to win the Australian Open 50/1 William Hill
crazy price if you ask me. Raonic has just won the Brisbane event and only lost one set (a tie break to Dodig in Round 1) along the way he beat Tomic and then Federer in the final both in straight sets. He has looked in good form for a while now and will want to better his QF spot last year. This is his best surface and most likely if he is going to win anything so the 50/1 on offer is too good to turn down. Hoping for a nice draw.

Well, anyone who watched the Raonic-Fedex match knows Fedex was ill and sweated as hell :-) I would not read much from this victory, though surely Milos showed some skills...

Edit - I am going for Wawra to win the whole thing again @15.00 with my local bookie. Wawra seems to be fit, and that is my only concern. He always tries best in Grand Slams and is capable of winning the trophy against anyone. Certainly better choice than Nadal (lower odds but has no chance against Nole) or Fedex (the same) or Andy (the very same)

Edited January 18, 2016 by homunculus
add some facts

[liquidglass]

Kontaveit vs Muguruza

On the face of it, a couple of hard-to-work out games on offer as we enter day2 of this tournament. I very much like the look of this matchup perhaps because in my own point of view it is easy to work out.(As if anything is ever easy in this indulgence) I will take it for granted that we all know the story of Muguruza so far especially in relation to her fitness and form. However there is nothing to clearly suggest that Muguruza is handicapped in any way other than a slight suspicion of "upset" lurking in the air. Unlike yesterday where punters waited in disappointment for Hibono to deliver amidst the wrong circumstance. Hibino lacked the fire power and aggression to confront a somewhat of a muzzled, albeit dangerous opponent like Sharapova. She had previously be watered down by a similar opponent(Giorgi) days before. In Kontaveit, we have something to look forward to, something to get our teeth into,.....and yes, she is an aggressive, avant garde power hitter coming up the ranks nicely. I really look forward to a fine tuned performance from Kontaveit today against the run of expectations. I will be calling on +6.5 games for the tip knowing clearly that her elastic limits even cover her to win a set and very much more hopefully! good luck all!!!

[owenclass]

Day two

 

Feliciano Lopez vs Dan Evans

Over 37.5 games 4/5 paddy power

I have a feeling this is going to be tough for Lopez as Evans has played a lot of games in qualifying to get here so i expect him to win a set but Lopez should come through in four tight sets

 

Madison Brengle vs Coco Vandeweghe

Over 21.5 games 8/11 paddy power

Well this is going to be the battle of the future American players and these two are talented and desperate to go far in a grand slam tournament There is not much between them and there will be many breaks of serve but i have not got a clue who is going to win

Edited January 19, 2016 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Back Andreas Seppi (-1.5 sets) to beat Denis Kudla for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Unibet

Back N.Rubin/P-H.Herbert - Over 38.5 games for a 8/10 stake at 1.92 with Unibet

Back Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (-3.5) to beat Daniel Brands for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Quentin Halys (+12) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 8/10 stake at 1.72 with Betway

Much better day today, let's hope that continues on Wednesday, as I'll be backing four in total on that day. Seppi should be way too strong for Kudla, who didn't have to do anything to get past the first round really. The match against Rubin and Herbert should be fairly tight, two guys with good serves and worse-than-average returns, so the overs look like the logical choice to me there. GGL-Brands should get one-sided once the Spaniard gets a read on the German's serve - I do like Brands as a player, but this isn't a good match-up for him. Finally, I think that Halys will win at least six games, the line seems crazy considering that Djokovic will probably want to just cruise through without wasting a lot of energy, at least if the performance against Chung is anything to go by. Halys won ten games against Nadal in last year's French Open, so he shouldn't get too tight.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-the-second-round-gets-underway-on-wednesday-2016011901

[Fader]

Meh, half a point profit to take me to +5.5 so far. Very disappointed in Young. Will wait on games to finish to put my next bets up

Edited January 19, 2016 by Fader

[recklessrookie]

21 hours ago, Fader said:

Ivo Karlovic injured and retiring means that the bet on him to win 3-0 was a void and Cuevas did the business so good first day 1 in 1. Few more for Tuesday :

 

I had backed Karlovic and lost my bets due to him retiring, should these have been void?

 

Also does anyone know what odds Verdasco was to beat Nadal, it's surely worth laying Nadal in any major tournament these days, I took Verdasci +6.5 at evens, should have backed him to win!

 

Anyway keep up the good work people, im a tennis watcher but no expert and this forum has some great picks.

[CzechPunter]

3 minutes ago, recklessrookie said:

I had backed Karlovic and lost my bets due to him retiring, should these have been void?

 

Also does anyone know what odds Verdasco was to beat Nadal, it's surely worth laying Nadal in any major tournament these days, I took Verdasci +6.5 at evens, should have backed him to win!

 

Anyway keep up the good work people, im a tennis watcher but no expert and this forum has some great picks.

It depends on the bookie, some void retirements and some don't for the match markets. Verdasco was around 8.50.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN:

1/2 amount on RAONIC-7 GAMES HANDICAP OVER ROBREDO @ 1.66 on pinnaclesports
1/2 amount on RAONIC-7.5 GAMES HANDICAP OVER ROBREDO @ 1.93 on pinnaclesports
For me, Raonic is one of the "dark horse" favorites for the tournament. Robredo always struggles against big servers. Expect it to be an easy win for Raonic.

 

Edited January 19, 2016 by WinningTipster

[Fader]

Thanks Czech for replying to reckless. 

Mens previews :

5pts Seppi -4.5 games to beat D.Kudla Evens Bet365
Think Seppi should win this in 3 or 4 sets. Not faced eachother before but Seppi tends to do well here. Last year he was 2-0 up in sets against Krygios to get to the Quarter-finals and lost 8-6 in the fifth set. Along the way he beat Federer. He had a good year really on the hard and only went out of the US Open to Djokovic taking him to a couple of 7-5 sets. His worse loss really was in a small tournament where he lost to Pospisil but even then Pospisil was ranked in the top 55. Kudla doesn't really tend to beat the better players and last year his best win was against Sock. He went out in his first round in both the Aus Open (Vs Lopez fair enough) and also in the US Open (should be beating the likes of Melzer) so all in all I'd fancy Seppi for the win and would suggest a close first set with a few games in hand in the following

5pts Pierre Herbert -4.5 games to beat N.Rubin 4/5 WillHill
Played alot of doubles tennis last year but when he has competed for singles he has done well. Got to a final of a Winston Salem event where he has beaten the likes of Steve Johnson, Baghdatis and Bedene. He can beat players above his calibre and I see him winning this 3-0/3-1. He serves well and I see him being hard to break

 

[Fader]

Womens previews : 

3pts K.Mladenovic (-2,5 games) to beat N.Gibbs 5/6 Bet365
These two never played eachother before but I fancy Mladenovic to win it. I think the first set will be a close one, maybe even a tie-breaker but if Mladenovic can get the first I'm sure she can then take the second with minimal effort. I think the difference in ranking and experience will come into play here. 

4pts Over 20.5 games Gavrilova Vs Kvitova Evens Paddypower
4pts D.Gavrilova to beat P.Kvitova 11/4 Bet365
Will take a punt on Gavrilova to beat Kvitova. I'm not sure Kvitova is fully fit and she will need to be on her game to beat Gavrilova. Gavrilova has beaten some top players like Sharapova, Errani & Bencic and she will be at her home here as an aussie and we have seen time and time again how much home support lifts a player. These played last year and Gavrilova took a set off of Kvitova then so now? on home soil against a potential unwell Kvitova? Well worth a punt.

[Fader]

2pts J.Konta to win the 3rd Quarter 12/1 Bet365
She played so well against Venus and has a way of beating better calibre players than herself. I guess she can just raise her game for the big occasion. To win this quarter she'd have to beat Lisicki, Pliskova and Ivanovic/Keys. All winnable games for her as she has beaten big players in big slams. Beat Muguruza and Petkovic in the US Open last year and she beat Halep and Azarenka in a tournament after that albeit Azarenka retired in the second set. I don't see any of the players she is going up against beating her with ease so I'm taking this now

[Fader]

the bet above is the 4th Quarter. My apoligies. 

[superkev45]

I also backed Karlovic and lost. Sometimes you get lucky with certain bookies voiding the bet, even after 1 set has already been completed. But I can't understand why any bookmaker would void a 3-0 sets bet when its already beat after the 1st set. Business lunacy if you ask me. Anyway, it was a poor selection (by me) to trust Karlovic at such short odds.

[Fader]

17 minutes ago, superkev45 said:

I also backed Karlovic and lost. Sometimes you get lucky with certain bookies voiding the bet, even after 1 set has already been completed. But I can't understand why any bookmaker would void a 3-0 sets bet when its already beat after the 1st set. Business lunacy if you ask me. Anyway, it was a poor selection (by me) to trust Karlovic at such short odds.

Bet365 give the money back to you in that situation. Sometimes it goes your way, sometimes it doesn't ofcourse.... I've had an underdog to win and be 7-6 5-0 up and like 30-0 and they decide to retire and it drives you mad. Swings and roundabouts I guess.

Karlovic would win that match normally he was obviously carrying an injury mate. Don't think it was a bad bet.

[superkev45]

It beat an accy I was on so I'm still sore about it.  Should've done it with bet365 then. That does surprise me tho, I thought they were really switched on.

Anyway, more opportunities to come. I like of your Gavrilova selection for tonight. PK can be a bit erratic.

[recklessrookie]

I lose alot of money on tennis betting it seems to be so unpredictable, other then the really top players but then theres no money to be made from them until the later rounds. Football is my greater knowledge.

It seems to be that the Australian Open throws a few more shock results than other Majors?

[recklessrookie]

Krajicek v Nishikori - Krajicek +8.5 games 2.05 BetVictor

 

Whats Krajicek's chances of beating the +8.5 handicap v Nishikori?

Krajicek is a aggressive player with a good serve, and he took the first set against Nishikori when they met at the Memphis Open last year.

 

 

[owenclass]

Day three

Agnieszka Radwsnska vs Eugenie Bouchard

Bouchard to win 5/2 paddy power

Bouchard to win 2-1 set betting 15/2 paddy power

Over 19.5 games 8/11 paddy power

Now this is the match thst could be the final match of this yrats tournament for Radwanska as her opponent is back to the form when she was reaching semi finals of Grand slams so Radwanska is in for a battle but knowing Radwanska she will come through this in three sets

Edited January 20, 2016 by owenclass

[Fader]

Bit last minute but I'm taking 5pts on kuznetsova and bondarenko being under 19.5 games at 4/5 skybet just think she should do this with minimal of fuss and wouldn't surprise me if it went lower than 19 

[CzechPunter]

4 hours ago, superkev45 said:

I also backed Karlovic and lost. Sometimes you get lucky with certain bookies voiding the bet, even after 1 set has already been completed. But I can't understand why any bookmaker would void a 3-0 sets bet when its already beat after the 1st set. Business lunacy if you ask me. Anyway, it was a poor selection (by me) to trust Karlovic at such short odds.

It's not business lunacy, it's just fair. You can't just settle the entire market with losers (like the 3-0 option) without settling any winners (and which selection would you settle as winner if someone retires at 1-1?).

[CzechPunter]

1 hour ago, Fader said:

Bit last minute but I'm taking 5pts on kuznetsova and bondarenko being under 19.5 games at 4/5 skybet just think she should do this with minimal of fuss and wouldn't surprise me if it went lower than 19 

99% out, 100% in!

[Fader]

Lol Czech them wins feel so sweet glad I didn't do handicap ha ha 

[delfino]

Today i support Cuevas with all my heart. I am pure anti-Kyrgios after what happened in Montreal. I am sure that tennis culture does not accept such a behaviour from any player

Cmon Cuenas! Give the lesson my boy!

But i support him as anti-Kyrgios. Not as bettor. This is a bet-free statetment. I am rock solid on my outright selections on both men and women at WAW/AZA

ciao members!

[recklessrookie]

10 hours ago, recklessrookie said:

Krajicek v Nishikori - Krajicek +8.5 games 2.05 BetVictor

 

Whats Krajicek's chances of beating the +8.5 handicap v Nishikori?

Krajicek is a aggressive player with a good serve, and he took the first set against Nishikori when they met at the Memphis Open last year.

 

 

 

Now going to go for Halys on a handicap, as said previously in this thread, Djokovic has no reason to go all out wheras Halys will be hugely motivated so should get a few games here.

[CzechPunter]

Back S.Wawrinka/R.Stepanek - Over 32.5 games for a 8/10 stake at 1.80 with Unibet

Back L.Hewitt/D.Ferrer - Over 3.5 sets for a 8/10 stake at 2.10 with Paddy Power

Back Milos Raonic (-7.5) to beat Tommy Robredo for a 8/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Back John Isner (-4.5) to beat Marcel Granollers for a 8/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

Four for me tomorrow, starting with a bet on the overs in Stepanek/Wawrinka. I've got no doubts about who's going to win that match, but the Czech veteran is playing well these days and I think that he'll be able to keep things very tight, especially with the Swiss number two looking sluggish in R1. At odds above evens, I'm also happy to back Hewitt to make his career at least one set longer, Ferrer hasn't been particularly great recently. Apart from that, I also expect Raonic to crush Robredo, that's an incredibly dreadful match-up for the Spaniard in all honesty. Finally, Granollers hasn't beaten anyone solid in ages, so Isner should be able to pretty much stroll past him.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-tips-murray-faces-groth-raonic-plays-against-robredo-2016012001

[Fader]

good day and 5 out of 6 winners. Great to see Gavrilova win and in straight sets too. Missed out on the over 20 games to get a full house by 1 game but I'll take that for the outright win. Seppi, Herbet and Mladenovic also come in to end the day +22.5pts and +28pts for the Aus Open

 

[Fader]

Mens previews :

5pts G.Monfils -5.5 games to beat N.Mahut 4/5 Bet365
Head-to-head reads 3 matches all to Monfils. Last time out he won in straight sets and it wouldn't surprise me to see exactly the same here. I can't imagine Mahut getting more than one set and I think we will see atleast one set that ends 6-1/6-2 to Monfils so I'm going for the games handicap here. Monfils actually has a great chance of making the Quarter-Finals here. 

4pts J.Isner -5.5 games to beat M.Granollers Evens Skybet
I fancy Isner this tournament to do well and the draw hasn't disappointed. Lopez, Ferrer and Murray but first of all he has to beat Marcel. Granollers and Isner played back in 2008 and Isner won then in 3 sets. If he serves well he should win with games to spare.

[Fader]

Womens previews :

4pts A.Cornet to beat Zhang 2-0 Evens Willhill
Zhang beating Halep in the previous round pushing up the price nicely here. Id expect 1.66 maximum normally for this but 2.00 thanks to that win. They played before and Cornet won in straight sets and Cornet is the much better player. Corner in straight sets

4pts T.Bacinszky to beat A.Beck 2-0 Evens Bet365
I think Timea can take advantage of Beck here and win this in straight sets. Womens game on a whole rarely has alot of good service games but Becks service is there for the taking and I think timea will break quite a lot here.

3pts Pliskova to beat Goerges 2-0 Evens Bet365
Completing the "Evens" treble is Pliskova. She is serving very well and although Goerges serves well herself I think after the tie breaker (assuming Pliskova gets it) she can take the second set with more ease. Head-2-head reads 1-0 to Pliskova who won in three but I'm hoping Pliskova can take advantage of the second serves here and take it in two.

[four-leaf]

Back Johanna Larsson (-1.5) to beat Madison Brengle for a 8/10 stake at 1.91 with Pinnaclesports

Larsson beat Brengle in Linz indoors last season in october and that is the worst surface for Larsson but she still won in straight sets because of here stronger mentality then. She was patient and waited for Brengle to produce bad serves. I expect Larsson to be able to progress since she still is the more mentally stable of the two.

Back Kirsten Flipkens (+6.5) to beat Garbiñe Muguruza for a 7/10 stake at 1.91 with Pinnaclesports

Flipkens played some solid tennis in october and november. Something that explained why she reached top 15 once. She has beaten Muguruza before in straight sets and lost once in straight sets and did'nt lose by more then 5 games then. I know she's fully capable of covering +6.5 games so I take my chances with her.

[owenclass]

Day four preview :

 

David Ferrer vs Lleyton Hewitt

Over 33.5 games 4/7 paddy power

Ferrer to win 3-1 5/2  paddy power

Im hoping this match will be classic but i think this could be the end of the road for Hewitt as Ferrer will have too much for him but with Hewitt you get a player that wont give up thats why i think he will win a set anything else will be a bonus for the two times Grand slam champion

Edited January 21, 2016 by owenclass