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Boxing Day Racing - 26/12/2015


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Cracking day of racing ahead. Not only the King George but the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown looks an absolute cracker and the Feltham looks a good Grade 1 too. Too bad the British have nothing to challenge Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle and you would have to be very disappointed if he didn't get the job done there.

Enjoy studying the form the next few days.

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Taken from my account on boards.ie

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Ground is good to soft, soft in places at Kempton with some rain predicted in the next few days.

My thoughts are really the same as they were a few weeks ago. I have this nagging doubt about Don Cossack when the pressure is really on. He seems to really switch off in his races these days and I just wonder if he'll get caught out here in a race run at a frenetic pace. He didn't look like the winner turning for home in the Punchestown Gold Cup before staying on strongly and even at Down Royal I didn't really feel as if he traveled like a 3m superstar although I may be nit picking a bit there. At Cheltenham Uxizandre ran him into the ground when he made a few mistakes and I just wonder if he might one of those horses who smashes up weaker Grade 1 opposition but just falls short at the real top level.

There's too many concerns about Vautour to back him at 3/1. As I said previously I'm sure he'll stay as he put 15L between two very good horses up the hill in the JLT and connections seem to think the same. The concern is his two best runs have been at Cheltenham on good ground and Mullins has always stressed he is very hard to get fit so we may not see his best until March. I love the horse but there's too many concerns to back him in a race like this at the prices.

Cue Card never really fulfilled his promise but he has showed signs he can do it this season. His Betfair Chase victory was sensational even if Conti was below his best and the summer break as well as the breathing op seemed to have done him the world of good. He has tons of pace but also stays, jumps, is tactically versatile and he's my idea of the winner.

Silviniaco Conti has had his issues and the big drift before the off in the Betfair Chase was telling but if anyone can get him back to his best it's Paul Nicholls and I think he'll come on for that and challenge for the places. This is a better race than last year or the year before so winning is probably a stretch for him.

I'm not sure Smad Place will back up his excellent Hennessey run and even if he did I think more would be required to win. The initial talk of swerving the King George makes me think the seasonal goal was to win the Hennessey and he may not be able to reproduce that effort just a month later. Even though he put them away with ease First Lieutenant was 3rd and breathing issues have come too light since regarding Saphir de Rheu and running on the old ground on the outside probably was no help either so it wasn't the strongest race.

Can't have Al Ferof or Valseur Lido. Al Ferof has never been good enough to win this before and I can't see how he's good enough now in a stronger renewal. He's also probably better fresh and over 2 and a half as well. A lot of people seem to like Valseur Lido each way but I don't see it at all. He looks pretty exposed now as he was unable to bridge the gaps to the best novices last year so unless marathon trips bring more improvement (which he doesn't get in the King George) I can't see much more in him. He has to step up significantly to even place here.

Road to Riches is going to the Lexus and I doubt the other two will run looking at Betfair.

Holding off until closer to the day as bookies will likely push out the odds but the selection has to be Cue Card for me.

 

 

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Just having a scout around....not much value about considering the Amount of racing ...prices are very cramped and some races look a home run ...faugheen for example should be nigh on unbeatable but at 1/3 hes unbackable ....silviniaco conti is an interesting horse around 8/1 .. .I think hes got everything going for him and you have to remember hes rated around 175 at his very best and has already proven he saves his best for his race ....p nicholls will have him spot on for boxing day and I think he will be hard to keep out the frame ...probably the only value left in the race 

145 weth row merrick hcap 

Top gamble  99.21

Holywell    99.19 

 

Just looking for some value bets and these two are a little clear in this race .. top gamble ran a decent race lto and looks fairly well treated at the moment ..should give a good account against exposed opposition ....holywell is difficult to rate ....hasnt really fired of late but last years race behind silvinaco conti rates him around the 160 mark and that would be good enough to take this even though its a hcap so if he can find his form then has serious chsnces ....at 6 and 8 ....decent value bets 

Top gamble 5 pts win 6/1 lads

Holywell  5 pts win 8/1 corals 

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345 kemp will hill hcap hurdle 

Baron alco    98.78

Churchfield   98.75

 

Speculative bets these ..this is a very hard and open race...lots of exposed horses and out of form types ...baron alco looks the type to do well in this ...young improving type ...hes only about 8-10 lbs off being the standard needed to take this  and lto he won as he liked and been gifted a nice racing weight ..  could be anything so 10/1 is too big ....churchfield is a complete shot in the dark ....on paper looks against it but off 10-8 he looks very well treated and could spring a surprise ....I have him down as 16/1 and hes 33/1!!....so worth a shot 

Baron alco   5 pts win 10/1 sky

Churchfield   5 pts win 33/1 lads 

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Tote Scoop6 – Saturday 26th December

 

We have a massive Win Fund in the Tote Scoop6 this week after another near miss last Saturday. One punter got through to the last leg but failed when his sixth selection was unplaced. The pot has now reached a whopping £694,240, if you add the Bonus Fund of £666,620 we could be playing for a £2 Million prize.

The six races come from Kempton, Wincanton and Wetherby with the main race being the King George VI Chase at 3.10 worth over £100,000 to the winner.

 

Leg 1: 1.25 Kempton

We kick off this week with a 10-runner novices handicap chase. One of the favourites will be the bottom weight Bekkensfirth from the Dan Skelton yard. He showed improved form to win at Leicester and could be well handicapped although this is a big step up in class. Top weight Germany Calling was disappointing last time but on the whole sets a decent standard and the Nicholls team run Sirabad who was second at Carlisle on his chase debut and should do better in time.

Selection: Bekkensfirth 9/2 Coral (Germany Calling)

 

Leg 2: 1.40 Wincanton

A Pertemps qualifier where a top six spot gets you into the Final at Cheltenham in March. Ruacana is the top rated horse on 146 and hasn’t been disgraced in either of his two starts this season. He ran well at Sandown last time and will enjoy this speedier track. We have two chasers reverting to the smaller obstacles in Buywise and If In Doubt. Both warrant plenty of respect and of the two I’d prefer the Hobbs runner If In Doubt. Of the rest Alcala is not over burdened off 125 for Paul Nicholls.

Selection: Ruacana 10/1 >Bet365 (If In Doubt)

 

Leg 3: 1.45 Wetherby

Our only visit to Wetherby and a cracking renewal of the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Chase. Holywell is a class horse and attempts to win this off 11st 12lbs. He has been slightly below par so far this season but this is easier than the Betfair Chase where he was 33 lengths behind Cue Card. Top Gamble is useful but tries 3m for the first time and I would prefer What A Good Night or Splash Of Ginge on this occasion. The latter was going ok when blundering his chance away at Newbury and if he puts in a clear round he will go close.

Selection: Splash Of Ginge 9/1 Paddy Power (Holywell)

 

Leg 4: 3.10 Kempton: King George VI Chase

The big Grade 1 race of the day and an absolute treat for racing fans in store. We have the two Irish challengers Don Cossack and Vautour locking horns plus the Betfair winner Cue Card and the winner of this race for the last two seasons Silviniaco Conti lining up. Add to that the Hennessy winner Smad Place and we have the race of the season so far.

I’m in the Cue Card camp, I reckon he’s a much improved horse and hopefully will put his Kempton hoodoo to bed, he has run here 3 times before without success. Don Cossack is a class act and will no doubt be bang there at the last while Vautour needs to run better than he did last time at Ascot to win this. It’s a cracker and will be a thrilling encounter whatever the result.

Selection: Cue Card 4/1 >William Hill (Don Cossack)

 

 

Leg 5: 325 Wincanton

A 2m handicap chase and they wont be hanging about here. Won last year by Minella Definitely and he attempts to follow up off 7lbs higher. He was 4th last time at Ludlow and has chances. Morning Reggie is worth a second look for Oliver Sherwood. He was third to Bally Beaufort at Aintree and ran well up until weakening between the last two fences, he steps back in trip and ought to go well. Quite By Chance is another that was well beaten last time but the form of his Exeter race has worked out well and should be thereabouts in this grade.

Selection: Morning Reggie 10/1 Bet365 (Quite By Chance)

 

Leg 6: 3.45 Kempton

The all-important last leg and the most competitive race of the day with 16 handicappers battling it out. Nicky Henderson has the market leader in Sugar Baron, he’s not ran for 287 days and when we saw him last he was fourth here to Our Kaempfer. He could be anything and not badly treated on 131. Gunner Fifteen is interesting for Harry Fry, he was heavily backed last time out at Haydock where a bad error two out put paid to his chances, he’s worth another go off his current mark. Of the others I like Simply A Legend for the Alan King yard who won last time out and I wouldn’t give up on Flying Angel just yet despite being a beaten favourite last time at Aintree.

Selection: Gunner Fifteen 6/1 BetVictor (Flying Angel)

 

 

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2.05 Wolverhampton

There is no obvious front runner in this field which could cause a problem for a few of these however a chance is taken on the rapidly improving Dougan for the in form Evans yard.

Cosey winner last time out on the back of a maiden win on just 2nd start. Pulled to the front travelling well and the way he went about it would suggest he could front run if needed. A 4lb rise looks very lenient given his unexosed profile and the way he travelled into the race last time out.

 

2pt win Dougan 5/2 PP

 

3.05 Wolverhampton

Second Wave went up 10lb for his last win on penultimate start and he threw a poor performance in last time out off that 10lb higher mark, perhaps a tad unlucky turning into the straight but didnt look an unlucky loser and needs to bounce back, also steps up in trip.

Solar Deity is a 3 time course winner but never won over this trip, not beaten too far last time out but needs to find more as still remains 9lb above last winning mark.

Brocklebank is probably a good option at the prices. He is a hold up sort which is a slight worry but he overcome that issue in this race last year when winning off just a 2lb lower mark, struggled this winter so far until last time out when a good 2nd to an improving sort (who has since ran a poor race) but the 3rd has since won next time out, runs off the same mark today.

 

2pt win Brocklebank 4/1 bet365

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125 kemp

Bekkensfirth    98.63

Antony     98.63

Open novice race and they tend to be a bit trappy but these two novices are a bit clear in this race so worth a second look ....both have similar profiles .. .quickly improving types with limitless possibiltys ... both won on the bridal recently and those races look interesting from a form perspective ....current prices of 5.6 and 8.8 on betfair just look too good to miss .. tagteam 

Bekkensfirth  5 pts win 5.6 betfair

Antony 5 pts win 8.8 betfair

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Just posting this reply to move the thread in front of the 3 pages of spam threads really. Leopardstown is heavy. I live up here & have never seen heavier & more consistent rain in my life. I know they have decent drainage up there now but this really was a deluge. The cloud is back in on the mountain now & the rain is starting up again though it's only drizzle but is due to stay for the day. I'm heading up shortly & will be backing any horses with form on heavy ground. Best of luck to all. Cheers.

 

Edit: Rain getting heavier now too. I'm looking for outsiders that like it heavy so with that in mind Baroque Style (Leop 1:50) who has a 2nd on heavy ground (Robbie Power was on board that day) & jockey Luke Dempsey claims 3. Also solidifies my punt on Grotesque (Leop 3:25) who won on heavy ground back in March.

Edited by Sober Colm
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3:10 Kempton  SMAD PLACE looks a good E/W bet at best price 8/1 bet365, william hill, boylesport, paddy power, ladbrokes, coral.. Cue Card is a interesting runner showing improved form this season after a trapped epiglottis operation and best price 9/2 looks about right. SMAD PLACE as also had the same operation and has found improvement this season. This is going to be a cracking event with plenty of horses having a chance. I think 8/1 smad place is a bit to big for what he achieved in the Hennessy, If smad place gets his rhythm and hits the front early he could burn a lot horses out . Best of Luck to everyone.

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I like Smad Place as well

Don Cossack is obviously pretty good........you don't win 5 grade 1 races by being no good. But he does tend to win a lot of fairly uncompetitive small field events in Ireland against the same opposition of whom only 1 in any given race might be a serious rival. He's the most likely winner but there is some doubt about him

Vautour, Cue card........will they stay if the race is run at a scorching pace with several front runners taking each other on ?

Smad Place looks to be on the up, has won around here, definitely gets the trip and should be running on at the finish when others might be tiring

At 8/1 across the board looks a good EW bet...........:ok

 

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I'm quite pleased that Wetherby is off from the point of view of telly watching.........but it still leaves 4 meetings on RUK

What kind of coverage are we going to get of the big meeting ?........races overlapping, a minute to preview and paddock. straight off to Market Rasen as soon as they cross the line

Could be one of the few days of the year when I turn to Channel 4.........:loon

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In the first race at Leopardstown there's a horse at a huge price which could outrun it's odds. Whilst the favourite is solid the Ricci owned 2nd favourite ran an absolute shocker on debut and the Gigginstown horse looks a big immature type who's likely going to come good with time so there are two to take on at the front of the market. There's a nicely bred horse called Crafty Power by Mastercraftsman out of a Galileo mare who was last of 4 in a bumper at Limerick in March beaten 13L but he actually shaped quite well for a long way and ran better than the result suggests. The 1st has hacked up in England for Greatrex and the 2nd subsequently ran 2nd to Charbel in a Listed bumper who was runner up to Yanworth in a Grade 2 recently so the form has a solid look. The ground was very testing at Limerick that day and he didn't seem to see out the trip which is a concern with the ground today but Sabrina J Harty is a very good trainer even though she doesn't have too many jumpers and hopefully he's stronger now with a summer to mature.

Bit of a long shot but I'll have a bit on him to place on Betfair.

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Crafty Power 6th there so I reckon connections will be pleased with that.

In the 12.45 Volvalien has to be a play at the 10s available on William Hill who won a bumper easily at Listowel last time and has reportedly been schooling really well since. His trainer Alan Fleming has been a revelation this season backed by powerful connections and the market still underrates his horses IMO. The favourite Vigil has had back problems which explains why he's been a bumper horse for so long which is a concern and the Gigginstown runner ran out in an amateurs maiden hurdle just 4 days ago and this will likely be too hot for him.

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Nicholls talked about stepping As de Mee up to 3m before heading to Sandown for their 2m Grade 1 Novice Chase and he now steps up to that trip today. If he didn't run at Sandown he would be a much shorter price and I can forgive that run as he never had a chance over that trip at the speed they went. Before that he looked a really promising chaser with his form working out really well and he is a fantastic jumper. It's interesting that Nicholls puts him in here as he looks incredibly well handicapped off 140 and with Native River probably looking for a stronger test and Tea for Two possibly better over shorter the widely available 11/1 looks worth a bet.

Racing Post Novices Chase at Leopardstown is an absolute cracker with 4 of the best horses from their respective yards. Douvan probably could have challenged for the Champion Hurdle last year and has the obvious class but he was a bit guessy at a few fences on debut and made a mistake at the last. Ttebobb has been electric thus far and will take him out of his comfort zone so you have to take on the Ricci favourite at the prices. Ttebobb warrants respect but he's been well talked about and I feel Sizing John is the forgotten horse. Lets not forget he was rated 151 over hurdles for De Bromhead who only tunes them up fully for fences and his jumping has been impeccable so far. I wouldn't put you off Ttebobb but I prefer Sizing John at the prices with Paddy Power going 13/2.

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Cue Card finally lives up to the hype. Great performance in a spectacular race that had everything.

I would love to see Vautour go to the Gold Cup as he's sure to come on again and improve on the likely better ground but getting collared on the line plus the fact Ricci has Djakadam you would have to think the Ryanair is likely now. There was significant money for Vautour in the Ryanair a few days ago as well.

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On 23/12/2015, 18:17:15, richard-westwood said:

345 kemp will hill hcap hurdle 

Baron alco    98.78

Churchfield   98.75

 

Speculative bets these ..this is a very hard and open race...lots of exposed horses and out of form types ...baron alco looks the type to do well in this ...young improving type ...hes only about 8-10 lbs off being the standard needed to take this  and lto he won as he liked and been gifted a nice racing weight ..  could be anything so 10/1 is too big ....churchfield is a complete shot in the dark ....on paper looks against it but off 10-8 he looks very well treated and could spring a surprise ....I have him down as 16/1 and hes 33/1!!....so worth a shot 

Baron alco   5 pts win 10/1 sky

Churchfield   5 pts win 33/1 lads 

Baron alco bravely lasts home  ....cracker ....wetherby called off ....other one was second ....nice day 35 pts profit overall .  .....actually its 40 pts cos just realised churchfield was non runner too 

Edited by richard-westwood
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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Baron alco bravely lasts home  ....cracker ....wetherby called off ....other one was second ....nice day 35 pts profit overall .  .....actually its 40 pts cos just realised churchfield was non runner too 

Well done again Richard!! Will be hoping for more of the same tomorrow :cheers

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