Liga NOS 2015/16

[pulsar12]

Hi, started this topic to track portuguese liga for this season

For this week, the only value bet I see is Setubal. Tondela season has been appaling with very bad results, poor performances and is changing the coach for the 3rd time in a short period of time. The new coach (Petit) and lost his first match playing at home agains Braga, and personally I dont believe he will change the team for the better. On the other side Setubal is in good form and is playing well. I consider they have at least 50% chance of winning this game, so the current odds of 2.5 for Setubal to win, is good value. 

For the remaing matches I don't see any value at moment, but some worth a look for live betting.

Porto - Academica (look for Porto weakness)

Benfica - Rio Ave (look for Benfica weakness)

U Madeira - Sporting (Bet on Sporting to win if the odd rises much, they usually comeback from behind and score late goals. Sporting is the best playing team by far at the moment)

Edited December 19, 2015 by pulsar12

[pulsar12]

For this week:

P.Ferreira - Setubal: Both teams are similar in terms of performance, but as the odds for Setubal are too high, I go for them.

• Setubal to win > 4

[pulsar12]

For this week:

Academica - P Ferreira: Academica has been playing bad, Pacos Ferreira is much better team and their odds are good. Ferreira to win > 2.20

Guimaraes - Porto: Porto performance has been inconsistent, while Guimaraes is a decent team. Guimaraes can win this game, its not likely but their odds are way too high. Guimaraes to win > 7,58

Boavista - Setubal: Boavista is performing very bad. Setubal is playing good football despite latest bad results. Very good odds for Setubal to win! >2,7

[arsenalfh]

On 1/16/2016, 4:31:07, pulsar12 said:

For this week:

Academica - P Ferreira: Academica has been playing bad, Pacos Ferreira is much better team and their odds are good. Ferreira to win > 2.20

Guimaraes - Porto: Porto performance has been inconsistent, while Guimaraes is a decent team. Guimaraes can win this game, its not likely but their odds are way too high. Guimaraes to win > 7,58

Boavista - Setubal: Boavista is performing very bad. Setubal is playing good football despite latest bad results. Very good odds for Setubal to win! >2,7

Super stuff again pulsar, keep it up. Good luck tonight.

Porto are really struggling. No movement from midfield, no runs in behind and the tempo is too slow in the opposition's half. Last season they could get away with it because Jackson was so clinical but Aboubakar is a level below.

I would love them to play Brahimi behind the striker to inject some pace into the midfield and sign another winger. I also hate the two right footers playing on the left which just compresses the pitch leaving less room for the midfield to work in. Corona doesn't threaten in behind or in front of goal either leaving huge pressure on Aboubakar to score.

[pulsar12]

Surprise today, boavista and vitoria both unrecognizable. Guimaraes save the week 

[pulsar12]

For this week:

U Madeira - Nacional: Madeira has been doing interesting matches and results lately. On latest match against Maritimo, they had enough chances to get a 4 to nil victory, but only came with 0-1 due to great goalkeeping of Maritimo. From what I see from Nacional I see nothing impressive at the moment, so will go for Madeira win here with >2,7 odds.

Tondela - Boavista Both teams will want to win here and will open up. The new coach of Tondela (Petit) has improved the team with his ideas, they are now very dangerous on counter-attack with their fast forwarders, but the defense is still very bad. (this could be very well seen on matches against Sporting and Rio Ave). So I expect a bunch of goals on this game. Over 2,5: >2.5

Belenenses - Guimaraes: Belenenses is a average- team, not impressive. Guimaraes in theory is better team, and currently are performing decent. they come from a moralizing victory against Porto. Their odds are high so worth a bet. Guimaraes to win >2,7

 

[pulsar12]

next:

Nacional - Tondela: Nacional has not been performing well. Tondela is currently dangerous on counter-attack and will play away of home, so their strategy should work better. I expect Nacional to have the initiative and will be exposed to counter attacks. Tondela defense is bad but since Nacional is struggling and given the circumstances described above, I finds good odds for Tondela win. > 5.00

Estoril - Porto: Porto is still performing badly, Estoril is an average team. This really is a no brainer given the odds for Estoril to win > 8.80

Maritimo - Belenenses: Maritimo is performing bad. Belenenses currently is playing decently better than Maritimo, I would give them at least 50% chance to win this match. Belenenses to win > 3,72

[arsenalfh]

On 1/29/2016, 11:46:03, pulsar12 said:

next:

Nacional - Tondela: Nacional has not been performing well. Tondela is currently dangerous on counter-attack and will play away of home, so their strategy should work better. I expect Nacional to have the initiative and will be exposed to counter attacks. Tondela defense is bad but since Nacional is struggling and given the circumstances described above, I finds good odds for Tondela win. > 5.00

Estoril - Porto: Porto is still performing badly, Estoril is an average team. This really is a no brainer given the odds for Estoril to win > 8.80

Maritimo - Belenenses: Maritimo is performing bad. Belenenses currently is playing decently better than Maritimo, I would give them at least 50% chance to win this match. Belenenses to win > 3,72

Also backing Estoril to beat Porto. Always worth taking on a team who can't score. Good luck.

[pulsar12]

Hi, for this week just find value on Guimarães to beat Tondela easily. Tondela has been decreasing their performance again, after a "spike" that durated just for a few games (good counter attacks), player "chamorro" left the club some time ago and this player was important on their attack, so I believe this contributed to their decrease on performance. Fans and president are furious with the players attitude, they just don't play with passion, 2 days ago they draw 2-2 with a very low division team(training match) and it was clearly seen the lack of attitude from the players.

Guimarães players atitude and capacity is so much better than Tondela, I strongly believe this will be an easy game for Guimarães. Their odds are good for the win, look also for handicaps.

Guimaraes to win > 2.00

EH-1 Guimaraes > 3.40

EH-2 Guimaraes > 9

 

[jozi]

Anyone more Information for the match Tondela - Guimares? I think the odds for Guimares are way too high if you looks at the stats of both teams. Any known injurys or anything else that would explain these odds.

Thanks

[pulsar12]

I don't find anything relevant on local news about the players condition. The only thing is the pressure fans and president are making on Tondela players because of their lack of attitude...maybe bettors think this will have a positive effect on the team.

Sergio Conceicao (Guimaraes coach), says to the media that it will be a difficult game because it's a game away from home and Tondela will dispute this game like a final since they desperately need points to survive. I see this as standard talk to keep his players alert and not get lazy.

Both coach statements are expected, so I prefer to take into account only the team facts.

[jozi]

Thanks pulsar12. I think I´ll give it a try. 

[pulsar12]

Lost, think that weather played a role and guimaraes couldn't adapt.

[jozi]

Definitely. Very difficult to play under these conditions.

[pulsar12]

For this i go:

Maritimo-Braga: Maritimo is on bad moment and i don't agree at all with the ideas of the coach he says on TV (game analysis and future), I it doen't help their players psych. So due to this and because of Maritimo bad performances, i fancy Braga to win easily here: EH-1 Braga > 3.00 

Estoril-Tondela: expect Estoril to win easily here, Tondela is still bad. EH-1 Estoril > 3.00

Benfica-Porto: Last Porto match against Arouca I just didn't bet against them because I was not sure if the new Coach has really changed the team performance for the better, since they seem to be improving lately. However that game pretty much dismissed all of that and Porto attitude continues the same as before, inconsistent. On the other hand Benfica is playing better than Porto (even comparing to good Porto matches) and has been solid. If this day is a good one for Porto, maybe they can draw the match, else this could very well end on 2-0 or 5-0 for Benfica. I see the biggest value is on handicaps for Benfica.

EH-1 Benfica > 4.00, 

Benfica to score more than 3 goals and win the match > 20

[pulsar12]

Porto-Moreirense: Porto is not consistent, in a bad day can lose with any team. So I will go to the highest odd, Moreirense to win > 11. I will not go with EH+1 because i don't believe much in the draw, away win has more value imo.

Sporting-Boavista: Sporting is currently struggling at home and they seem to have particular difficulty leading with lower table teams. (It was already shown against Tondela and Academica). will try Boavista EH+1 > 4.00.

Setubal-Nacional: Setubal went to a bad sequence of results when they lost player Suk, however they are returning to good performances on late games, despite being draws. Against Marítimo they were just unlucky and they did well against Guimarães. Since Nacional is performing bad, I expect an easy win for Setubal. EH-1 Setubal > 4.6 

[pulsar12]

Nacional - Ferreira:

Last 5 games Ferreira only could win to Tondela and the rest of matches being all draws majority being 1-1... Nacional side also only won Tondela on the last 5 at home, with each game have at least 4 goals scored. Nacional concead many goals due to inexperienced defense while their attack is dangerous with Agra been a key player. Very important to note that Ferreira top goalscorer Moreira will be out, but there will be returns of important midfielder Pele and central defender Cardoso. On Nacional, it will return only a key central defender - Rui Correia.

I expect this match to have less goals than the previous matches due to return of important defenders to both teams and the absence of top goalscorer on Ferreira. I see no value on Nacional side with their low odds. I think best bet here is draw > 3.00

[pulsar12]

Arouca - Braga: Braga had played on past wednesday for Europa League and will have an important cup game next week against Rio Ave. Manager will opt-out 3 important players: Mauro, Rafa (very important) and Hassan. Additionally defender Pinto is suspended so will miss. Arouca has no major misses...and is decent team having won to Porto recently and is a place behind Braga. their odds worth a bet. Arouca to win >3.4

[arsenalfh]

51 minutes ago, pulsar12 said:

Arouca - Braga: Braga had played on past wednesday for Europa League and will have an important cup game next week against Rio Ave. Manager will opt-out 3 important players: Mauro, Rafa (very important) and Hassan. Additionally defender Pinto is suspended so will miss. Arouca has no major misses...and is decent team having won to Porto recently and is a place behind Braga. their odds worth a bet. Arouca to win >3.4

Arouca available at 3/1 on Bet365 just so you know. Very good price with Braga leaving key players out of the squad and likely keeping others on the bench for Wednesday.

[pulsar12]

Moreirense - Tondela: Home team will have their top scorer Rafael back and defender Oliveira, both imporant squad members. Tondela has Lucas Souza back,important midfielder. all in all and based on both team performances lately I believe Moreirense likely win here, their attack with Medeiros and Rafael will be too strong for poor Tondela. . Expect goals also. home win > 1.9 + o3,5 > 3.5

 

[pulsar12]

Academica - Guimaraes: Guimaraes has defender Josue suspended and is forced to change the defenseive line, is likely that central defenders will be Afonso+Henriques, this duo only played against Moreirense, a game Guimaraes won by 4-3. Adding to the fact that Academica need points and will open up, but Guimaraes should also exploit that. Bet o2,5 > 2.00

Ferreira - Maritimo: Both teams will have all attackers available. On Ferreira side, B.Moreira (top goalscorer) will be back and on Maritimo side, Edgar Costa and D.Sousa. Bet o2,5 > 2.00

Tondela - Arouca: Arouca is solid team, should win this one since Tondela is very poor specially at home. Bet Arouca >2,4

[pulsar12]

Sporting-Benfica: Both teams have full squad available, the only doubt is Adrien for sporting, but most likely he will play. I believe two scenarios here, both teams level-up with fear of losing and this end in a draw. Or one of the teams get emotionally unstable and this end up in a clear advantage for one side. Benfica is much more improved than the last time they faced Sporting, however Rui Vitoria has lost all the derby's and from mind game perspective Sporting coach has advantage. Note that this is very important game, and will have great impact on who wins the league. Lets see.

Any team to score more than 2 goals at half time. > 32 (16% stake)

Home team to score more than 3 and win  > 24 (16% stake)

 Away team to socre more than 3 and win > 36 (16% stake)

Draw. > 3.2 (50% stake)

[pulsar12]

Estoril - Sporting: Home team is in good form and moralized, with forward Bonatini scoring many goals lately, not only the results but the performances have been good for estoril. Sporting is demoralized after losing with Benfica, and there is some tension building up between the coach and president. Also, because of what both of them say to the media previously, their arrogance is turning against them (president and coach). In last defeat against Benfica, the president gone out of the field without greeting the fans as usual... (yes the president always sit on the bench to watch matches). This all contributes negatively to players mind. I believe this will be a turning point to Sporting with their performances going to decrease if Benfica continues to do well on the league, because the pressure will be huge for both president and coach. Estoril to win > 6,36

Porto - U Madeira: Many key players are missing for Porto, list of player out: Danilo, Andre Andre ,Indi, Marcano, Evandro, Varela. without them there is real potential for Porto to be very weak, as already been shown on other matches. U Madeira has been struggling to win on later matches, but their odd is too good to miss, facing this fragile Porto. Expect Danilo Dias to be key player for Madeira on this match. Madeira to win > 16

Edit:  Layun and Brahimi will play for porto.

Edited March 12, 2016 by pulsar12

[pulsar12]

Sporting - Arouca: Arouca is solid as we know and usually is very hard for top league teams to beat them. Currently there is a climate of pressure for sporting and should will impact their performance. Also it is known that this coach does not handle well pressure and on the most important moments the team usually go down psychologically, this happened for several times when he was training Benfica. They were lucky to escape with a win on the last game against Estoril. Arouca is value.  Another tip for live betting is to bet against Sporting if they are winning by just one goal at late stages. Arouca to win > 12 + X2 > 4

Vitoria S - Porto: Vitoria odds too high here, facing a Porto that is inconsistent. Vitoria to win > 10

Tondela - Belenenses: Belenenses with good football at the moment and coming from moralizing 3-0 against Braga! Tondela is very appalling, so good odds for handicap Belenenses. EH-1 Belenenses > 4,3

[pulsar12]

Maritimo - Nacional: Madeira derby. Maritimo has been inconsistent this season, their last performances have been bad and in my opinion the current coach has loser mentality. Nacional went though some difficulties earlier in the season but they have been improving, much. The problem for Nacional this game is they are without a very regular defender Ali Ghazal and Agra is doubtful. If Agra is fit, I see value on Nacional to win at >2,83

[pulsar12]

Ferreira - Porto: Porto looks worse, players not motivated and team lacks cohesion, losing last game at home against bottom Tondela. Ferreira is decent team and for this match they have nearly all squad available, only with Andrezinho being the most significant missing. Porto has currently injured Marcano, Andre Andre, Evandro. I think Ferreira is value here

Ferreira win > 8 (50% stake)

1X > 3 (50% stake)

 

[pulsar12]

No brainer for this week, Porto - Nacional: far as I know Nacional has no major misses for this game and they are performing well. Ali Ghazal returned to the squad one fixture ago (they won 4-1 to Estoril). Porto still has 4 players doubtful with injuries: Marcano, Bueno, Andre Andre, Evandro. Knowing of the appaling performances of Porto, all value on Nacional side.

Nacional to win > 10 (50% stake); X2 > 3.6 (50% stake)

 

[malabgd]

Marítimo v SL Benfica

Marítimo: Rúben Ferreira (17/2 d), Ghazaryan (21/3 m)

SL Benfica: Júlio César (24/0 first goalkeeper), Sílvio (4/0 d), Semedo (12/1 d), Gaitán (24/2 m), Santos (1/0 f)

 

Nacional Madeira v Belenenses

Nacional Madeira: Belkaroui (10/0 d, suspended), Ghazal (27/0 d), Román (6/0 m), Willyan (22/4 m)

Belenenses: Ventura (28/0 first goalkeeper, doubtful), Carlos Martins (24/2 m, captain, suspended), Tiago Silva (17/2 m, suspended), Tonel (12/0 d), Aguilar (8/1 m), Pugh (0/0 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 90 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com