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Sir Puntalot

Champions League > Dec 8/9

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Wolfsburg vs Manchester United Preview: European hopes hang in the balance for Red Devils

Manchester United face a do-or-die Champions League match with Wolfsburg in Germany on Tuesday night. A win would guarantee a place in the last 16 for Louis Van Gaal's side but a draw or defeat would leave the Red Devils needing to rely on CSKA Moscow to get a result against PSV in the other Group B game.

THE BET

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 3/4 with bet365

Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/wolfsburg-vs-manchester-united-preview-european-hopes-hang-in-the-balance-for-red-devils01

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Manchester City vs Borussia Monchengladbach Preview: Citizens aiming to end Group B campaign on a high

Manuel Pellegrini's Manchester City might have qualified for the last 16 already but there is still the small issue of finishing in top spot to be contested with group leaders Juventus. Visitors Borussia Monchengladbach are also looking to get a win to seal their place in the Europa League last 32.

THE BET

Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 25/19 with Unibet

Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/manchester-city-vs-borussia-monchengladbach-preview-citizens-aiming-to-end-group-b-campaign-on-a-high03

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Arsenal -0.5

Arsenal has always done well(I mean win but will fall short) in these do or die games. Last season against Monaco, they screwed up(lost 1-3 at home) in the 1st leg but won the 2nd leg. In 13/14, they lost 1-3 to Bayern at home but managed to beat them 2-0 at the Allianz Arena. In 12/13, they lost 4-0 to Milan in the 1st leg but beat them 3-0 in the 2nd leg. Although these were KO stage games but I believe Arsenal is the kinda of team who likes to thrive in this kind of desperate situation.

I don't think their poor record in Greece will play a big part. I don't remember their past games in Greece were those do or die situation. It's either those where they already qualify or don't really need to points kinda of games.

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Olympiakos vs Arsenal Preview: Gunners determined to avoid Greek tragedy

Olympiakos welcome Arsenal to the Karaiskakis Stadium on Wednesday night with the Gunners needing to win by any result asides from 1-0 or 2-1 to qualify for the last 16. Those two results or a win or draw for Olympiakos will see them qualify for the next phase at Arsenal's expense.

THE BET

Arsenal To Win Outright @ 11/10 with bet365

Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/olympiakos-vs-arsenal-preview-gunners-determined-to-avoid-greek-tragedy01

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11 hours ago, vasilli07 said:

Arsenal -0.5

Arsenal has always done well(I mean win but will fall short) in these do or die games. Last season against Monaco, they screwed up(lost 1-3 at home) in the 1st leg but won the 2nd leg. In 13/14, they lost 1-3 to Bayern at home but managed to beat them 2-0 at the Allianz Arena. In 12/13, they lost 4-0 to Milan in the 1st leg but beat them 3-0 in the 2nd leg. Although these were KO stage games but I believe Arsenal is the kinda of team who likes to thrive in this kind of desperate situation.

I don't think their poor record in Greece will play a big part. I don't remember their past games in Greece were those do or die situation. It's either those where they already qualify or don't really need to points kinda of games.

Have to agree with you vasilli07. I think when they need to get the job done they often do. The key factor for me here is that despite all their injuries they still have a very solid back line. If they can come away from Greece with a clean sheet then I can certainly see them scoring 1-2 goals at least. Even without Sanchez and Cazorla. This is where Wenger's obsession with creative midfielders is actually paying dividends!

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Bet365 are doing their €50 free in-play bet for this game.

I usually recommend for the pre-game bet to bet on a player to score the first goal who you know will not play so that you have a risk free €50 bet in-play.

Pre-Game bet: Ziegele to score first

In-Play bet: Under 2.5 Goals

Risk: €0

Potential Profit: €36

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Chelsea vs Porto Preview: Will the ghosts of Mourinho's past come back to haunt him?

Reigning Premier League champions Chelsea might be struggling on the domestic front but they need just a draw at home against Porto in their final group game of this Champions League campaign to progress to the last 16 of this year's competition.

THE BET

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 9/13 with 888Sport

Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/chelsea-vs-porto-preview-will-the-ghosts-of-mourinho-s-past-come-back-to-haunt-him-02

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I don't understand this level of trust, when it comes to Arsenal. In fact, the Gunners have yet to win a game in Greece vs Olympiakos, in fact, they have lost 3 out of 3 games there. And now they would win one? At Greece, full with fanatic greek supporters -and oh boy, greek fans are known of their amazing support- against a very good home side I can't find a single reason why Arsenal would win, or even get a point out of this.

Edited by Proxyi

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Real Madrid v Malmö FF    

Real Madrid: Marcelo (11/2 d, doubtful), Navas (12/0 first goalkeeper), Ramos (7/1 d), Varane (12/0 d), Carvajal (8/0 d), Bale (9/4 m), Modrić (13/0 m)

Malmö FF: Wiland (14/0 first goalkeeper, doubtful), Bengtsson (16/1 d), Rosenberg (28/11 f, top scorer)(both suspended), Azinovic (3/0 g), Molins (7/0 m)

 

Manchester City v Mönchengladbach    

Manchester City: Aguero (10/7 f, top scorer), Demichelis (10/0 d), Fernando (9/0 m), Kompany (8/2 d), Nasri (7/1 m), Zabaleta (2/0 d)

Mönchengladbach: Domínguez (6/0 d), Schulz (1/0 d), Herrmann (6/1 m), Traoré (11/2 m), Stranzl (1/0 d), Hahn (7/2 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

 

 

Edited by malabgd

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6 hours ago, Proxyi said:

I don't understand this level of trust, when it comes to Arsenal. In fact, the Gunners have yet to win a game in Greece vs Olympiakos, in fact, they have lost 3 out of 3 games there. And now they would win one? At Greece, full with fanatic greek supporters -and oh boy, greek fans are known of their amazing support- against a very good home side I can't find a single reason why Arsenal would win, or even get a point out of this.

Took it from another forum.

Quote

Because every time Arsenal failed in Greece, the game was a dead rubber. Arsenal had nothing to play for. 2009 and 2010 they had already won the group. Only 2012 could they win the group but still played a weaker side like they did the other two occasions.

Arsenal are decimated by injuries and Olympiakos will be strong at home. But those 3 wins in Greece basically mean nothing.

 

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Final matches of a group stage of the Champions League will be played this week. Let's look at the corner kicks statistics of teams just before the last round of the main club tournament of Europe.

All teams played 5 matches and only 3 clubs made more corners than opponents in all 5 games. These clubs appeared to be: Barcelona, Real Madrid and Lyon. The Spanish clubs are well known favourites, so such statistics is expected from them. Each of them has the lead in the group with 13 gained points. But quite unexpectedly to see near them Lyon which has only one point in five games. Four clubs won by corner kicks in 4 of 5 games:  Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, Manchester United and Bayern Munich. Atletico Madrid, Manchester United and Bayern Munich are leaders of their groups, but Sevilla with three points takes the last place in the group and fight only for the League Europe.

Besides those teams who won by corner kicks in all matches, there are also those teams which lost all matches by corner kicks: FC BATE Borisov and Borussia M'glad. However, both clubs had very serious opponents: Juventus, Manchester City and Sevilla (for German team); Barcelona, Bayer and Roma (for Belarusians). Many teams lost 4 of 5 matches by corner kicks. Among them it is expected to see outsiders of groups - FK Astana, Malmo FF, Dinamo Zagreb, Maccabi Tel Aviv, but quite unexpected to see favourites: Zenit which won all 5 matches and PSG which has already booked its place in the knockout rounds.

By average total quantity of corners per match there are in the lead Borussia M'glad, Arsenal, Valencia, Dinamo Zagreb and Manchester City. In matches with participation of these teams 12 or more corner kicks were delivered on the average. Thus opponents of Borussia M'glad made more than 9 corner kicks on the average, and the opponents of Zagreb Dynamo made 8. But in average total corners of Valencia matches which equals to 12,4, 7,2 corner kicks are the share of football players of Valencia.

And here is the teams with the lowest average total corners: Bayer, Wolfsburg and FC BATE Borisov with less than 8 total corner kicks per match. So FC BATE Borisov delivered altogether just 5 corners in 5 matches, while his opponents made 34.

Also Bayer Leverkusen and PSV are among the teams which are the most low-delivering corners with just 15 corners in 5 matches. Maccabi Tel Aviv and Malmo FF delivered only 16 corners, and Wolfsburg and FK Astana 17. The most of corners made Atletico (41) and Bayern Munich (40) and it is mare than 8 corner kicks per match.

Till now We analyzed attacking potential of teams but let's look at the teams where their opponents delivered the least of corners. Barcelona is in leaders again here: in 5 games it allowed opponents to deliver corner only 6 times (i.e. it is less than 2 corner kicks per match). Leaders in this stats are also Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Real (in matches against these teams opponents made altogether less than 13 corner kicks). Teams which allowed opponents to deliver the most of corners are Borussia from Menkhengladbakh (44 corner kicks in 5 matches), Malmyo (43 corner kicks) and Maccabi (42 corner kicks).

It is expectedly to see Barcelona among leaders bY difference of corners (delivered 6.4 corners more than opponents on the average), and also Bayern Munich (delivered 5.4 corners more than opponents on the average) and Atletico (with the positive average difference of 4,6 corner kicks). From the opposite side - FC BATE Borisov, Malmo FF and Maccabi Tel Aviv. In matches against Belarusians opponents made 5,8 corner kicks more on the average, against Swedes - 5,4 corners more on the average, and against Israelis - on corners more on the average.




 

cl-08-12-2015.jpg

Visit corner-stats to get detailed football stats (goals, corners, cards, referees etc.) for Champions League as well as stats for tournaments from 55 countries all over the world.

Edited by CristRo7

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Tuesday 8th December
Group C
Galatasaray v Astana

This is a decider for Europa League qualification, as the result determines 3rd place in the group. Galatasaray need a draw. Astana have to win. Apparently, Astana have been in Turkey since 30th November, so it look as though they are taking this match seriously.

The first game in Kazakhstan ended 2-2, and I think there could be goals here too with both side fighting their corner. According to my shots on target stats for both clubs, Astana could be some value at around 7.0. I also like the price on 'overs', and this is perhaps a lower risk bet …

Over 2.5
1.8
Marathon

Stake: 5 points
 

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Champions League PSV vs CSKA

The visitors need all three points to claim a Europa League place and we have discussed many times how much respect teams from the East give that competition and we can expect them to play a big part in what could develope into a wide open encounter. PSV are in a strange situation, they are currently third and would advance to the CL knockout stage with a win, or a point if Manchester United lose, so they could finish first or last in this section and that is rare on Matchday 6. They are looking to become the first Dutch club to reach the knockout stages for nine long seasons and that brings with it additional pressure, especially with the failure of the national team to reach Euro 2016. They have seen off Manchester United and Wolfsburg here, scoring twice in each and also in a 3-2 loss in Moscow and something similar to that result in the reverse fixture would not surprise, with PSV probably nervous, having one eye on the match in Wolfsburg (odd for a Dutch team to want a German side to win !) and CSKA having no option but to gamble.

The visitors , that win over PSV aside, have not shown the attacking flair and gung-ho nature this season , that we have seen previously from them in the competition and are currently in a slump, with just one point from their last six starts in all competitions, they do still lead their domestic league, which is now in the Winter break after last weekend's round of games, so no need to hold anything back and a win would provide a much needed boost. However, on top of everything else, they have a bit of an injury crisis and several players including central defender Vasili Berezutski, left back Georgi Shchennikov and midfielder Roman Eremenko stayed behind in Moscow. Also, here is an incredible stat , goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev has conceded in his last 36 matches in the Champions League, a run stretching back some nine years !  I guess that PSV would like to play this a little more cautiously, but I suspect that CSKA will dictate how this match plays out and they have nothing to gain by sitting back, they also have a history of letting games slip away from them quickly when they trail on the road. PSV have won 8 of their last 9 home games, they conceded in six of those (5 wins) and both to score and PSV to win, looks the very likely outcome again this evening.

over 3 goals 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.

both teams to score and PSV to win 3.10-3.25 general quote, bigger in a few places.

 

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I really can't believe how Chelsea are such a short a price tomorrow. Cesc and Matic have gone missing, they don't have a striker and they have one of the worst defensive records in the league. Mourinho's record in his 3rd season as manager is poor and it looks as if he has no idea how to turn things around. At Porto and Inter he was gone before his 3rd season but in his first stint at Chelsea things went wrong and he was sacked, same at Real Madrid after a poor third season by their standards and the same looks to be happening again.

Porto will be kicking themselves as they really should be top of the group and qualified at this stage but for some silly goals conceded against Kiev. They're the best side in the group and need a win at Stamford Bridge. Although their record in England is poor the matches are hardly comparable as they're facing a side who is struggling above the relegation zone this time, not a side at the top of the league. This will be Porto's 3rd game in a week but they've rotated most of their team and will no doubt have had this game in their mind for a long time.

One of my criticisms of Porto under Lopetegui is how rigid they have been in attack. Against deep defences they often rely on a piece of magic from their wide players because there is little movement in between the opposition lines or in behind making the centre of the pitch extremely packed. Because they need a win hopefully we'll see more movement in and around Aboubakar and more runs from midfield especially from Andre Andre who knows how to find the net and if they play like that I can't see how Chelsea stop them from scoring. Porto are also strong at the back and they'll be delighted looking at Chelsea's options up front at the moment.

At the prices I can't see how you make a case for Chelsea.

Porto @ 10/3 BetVictor

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Arsenal have a huge task ahead of them, Olympiakos beat them at the Emirates when Arsenal had a near full strength side out, people tend to forget that. Now with the injuries and having to win 2-0, can't see them qualifying personally. Also can't see United qualifying unless CSKA do them a favour in Holland. Boring, muck football, no creativity.

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Weds 9th December
Group G
Chelsea v Porto

Chelsea need a draw to qualify. Porto probably have to win, because Kiev are likely to beat Maccabi at home and if Kiev win and Chelsea and Porto draw, Chelsea, Porto and Kiev would be level on 11 points which would leave Porto in 3rd place on results between these three clubs (UEFA's rules).

So the bottom line is Chelsea start knowing a draw is enough and Porto knowing they probably have to win. Chelsea have been struggling this season and have found it hard to score. But this is different to a home league game. Here they can exploit the space when Porto attack. If Porto take the lead, then Chelsea have to score and Porto are strong on the counter attack.

You could imagine this game starting defensively, with both sides keen to avoid conceding. But with the sides probably fighting each other for qualification, ultimately I think there could be a few goals here and it's worth backing overs at long looking odds.

Over 2.5
2.25
188Bet

Stake: 5 points

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Weds 9th December
Group F
Olympiakos - Arsenal

A straight fight for second place in this group behind already-qualified Bayern.

Olympiakos need a win, draw, or narrow defeat to Arsenal. Because of Olympiakos' 3-2 win in London in the reverse game, Arsenal need a better result here.

So Arsenal have to score at least two goals. I think it is likely we will see more than 2 goals in this game, and the odds are worth taking at around 1.8.

Over 2.5
1.79
188Bet

Stake: 5 points

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14 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Tuesday 8th December
Group C
Galatasaray v Astana

This is a decider for Europa League qualification, as the result determines 3rd place in the group. Galatasaray need a draw. Astana have to win. Apparently, Astana have been in Turkey since 30th November, so it look as though they are taking this match seriously.

The first game in Kazakhstan ended 2-2, and I think there could be goals here too with both side fighting their corner. According to my shots on target stats for both clubs, Astana could be some value at around 7.0. I also like the price on 'overs', and this is perhaps a lower risk bet …

Over 2.5
1.8
Marathon

Stake: 5 points
 

Result: Galatasaray 1 Astana 1

Bet lost

Stake: 5 points

Return: nil

Profit/loss = -5 points

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This may not be the most important stat but Arsenal has always at least won 1 away game in the CL group stage 11 times in the last 12 seasons. Not counting the seasons before that as CL had 2 group stages instead. 

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