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UEFA Youth League 2015/2016


MPLouis

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Runs alongside the Champions League. This year it has expanded to include more clubs. As well as the main Group Stage, there is a separate Domestic Champions Path. The winners of each group qualify. The runners up in each group play the 8 qualified Domestic Champions Path teams. The winners of these 8 games join the 8 group winners in the "Round of 16".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_UEFA_Youth_League

http://www.uefa.com/uefayouthleague/index.html

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Group Stage, 5th Group Games, Tuesday 24th Nov 2015

  Tuesday 24 November 2015 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Zenit Saint-Petersburg U19 v Valencia U19 (08:00 GMT) 2.4 4 2.3 110.14 %
maximize.gif FC Barcelona U19 v AS Roma U19 (11:00 GMT) 1.62 4.6 4.6 105.21 %
maximize.gif FC BATE Borisov U19 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen U19 (12:00 GMT) 5.25 4.5 1.45 110.24 %
maximize.gif Maccabi Tel Aviv U19 v Chelsea U19 (12:00 GMT) 7 4.75 1.36 108.67 %
maximize.gif FC Bayern München U19 v Olympiacos U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.9 3.75 3.5 107.62 %
maximize.gif FC Porto U19 v Dynamo Kyiv U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.66 4 4.1 109.39 %
maximize.gif Olympique Lyonnais U19 v KAA Gent U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.2 6.5 8 111.22 %
maximize.gif Arsenal U19 v GNK Dinamo Zagreb U19 (14:00 GMT) 1.44 4.33 5.75 109.70 %
maximize.gif KP Legia Warszawa U19 v FC Midtjylland U19 (15:00 GMT) 2.9 3.6 2.1 109.88 %
maximize.gif Salzburg U19 v Besiktas JK U19 (17:00 GMT) 1.72 4 3.5 111.47 %
maximize.gif Torino U19 v Middlesbrough U19 (19:00 GMT) 2.5 3.4 2.4 111.08 %
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Tues 24th Nov 11.00
Group E
Barcelona U19 v Roma U19

Barcelona in 1st place v Roma in 3rd

Roma look decent value at odds of over 5.0. Their shots on target stats in the group are better than Barcelona's. The stats suggest they had the better of the reverse game in Rome which ended 0-0.

Roma U19 +1AH
1.8
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

(NB: this game in being streamed live on uefa.com)

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Group F
Tues 24th Nov 14.00
Arsenal U19 v Din Zagreb U19

1st v 2nd in the group. Both are favourites to qualify.

Arsenal won the reverse game in Zagreb 2-0 although Dinamo had more shots on goal according to UEFA. And Dinamo's overall shots stats are better than Arsenal's.

Dinamo Zagreb U19 +1AH
2.01
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

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Group H
Tues 24th Nov 13.00
Lyon U19 v Gent U19

1st v 3rd in this group. Lyon and Valencia are well clear of Gent and Zenit and look very likely to qualify. Gent simply have to win this and their final game to stand any chance of qualifying. Lyon need a point here to qualify. Lyon won the first game in France 3-0. Lyon's shots on target stats are better than Gent's but not by as much as the odds suggest. I think Gent are worth backing at the odds.

Gent U19 +2AH
1.85
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

(NB: this game in being streamed live on uefa.com)

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22 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Tues 24th Nov 11.00
Group E
Barcelona U19 v Roma U19

Barcelona in 1st place v Roma in 3rd

Roma look decent value at odds of over 5.0. Their shots on target stats in the group are better than Barcelona's. The stats suggest they had the better of the reverse game in Rome which ended 0-0.

Roma U19 +1AH
1.8
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

(NB: this game in being streamed live on uefa.com)

Result: Barcelona U19 3 Roma U19 3

Bet won :ok

Stake: 5 points
Return: 9 points

Profit/loss = +4 points

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22 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Group F
Tues 24th Nov 14.00
Arsenal U19 v Din Zagreb U19

1st v 2nd in the group. Both are favourites to qualify.

Arsenal won the reverse game in Zagreb 2-0 although Dinamo had more shots on goal according to UEFA. And Dinamo's overall shots stats are better than Arsenal's.

Dinamo Zagreb U19 +1AH
2.01
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

Result: Arsenal U19 1 Din Zagreb U19 2

Bet won :ok

Stake: 5 points
Return: 10.05 points

Profit/loss = +5.05 points

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22 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Group H
Tues 24th Nov 13.00
Lyon U19 v Gent U19

1st v 3rd in this group. Lyon and Valencia are well clear of Gent and Zenit and look very likely to qualify. Gent simply have to win this and their final game to stand any chance of qualifying. Lyon need a point here to qualify. Lyon won the first game in France 3-0. Lyon's shots on target stats are better than Gent's but not by as much as the odds suggest. I think Gent are worth backing at the odds.

Gent U19 +2AH
1.85
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

(NB: this game in being streamed live on uefa.com)

Result: Lyon U19 4 Gent U19 0

Bet lost

Stake: 5 points
Return: nil

Profit/loss = -5 points

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  Wednesday 25 November 2015 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif FC Astana U19 v Benfica U19 (07:00 GMT) 110 28 1.57 68.12 %
maximize.gif Atlético de Madrid U19 v Galatasaray SK U19 (11:00 GMT) 1.16 7.5 15 105.71 %
maximize.gif CSKA Moscow U19 v VfL Wolfsburg U19 (11:00 GMT) 2.28 3.75 3.12 102.58 %
maximize.gif Shakhtar Donetsk U19 v Real Madrid CF U19 (11:00 GMT) 3 3.8 2 109.65 %
maximize.gif Borussia Mönchengladbach U19 v Sevilla U19 (13:00 GMT) 2.4 3.4 2.55 110.29 %
maximize.gif Juventus U19 v Manchester City U19 (13:00 GMT) 2.7 3.5 2.25 110.05 %
maximize.gif Manchester United U19 v PSV Eindhoven U19 (14:00 GMT) 1.4 4.4 7 108.44 %
maximize.gif Malmö FF U19 v Paris Saint-Germain U19 (14:30 GMT) 7 5.05 1.33 109.09 %
maximize.gif FC Viitorul Constanta U19 v 1. FK Pribram U19 (16:00 GMT) 2 4 3.75 101.67 %
maximize.gif IF Elfsborg U19 v Rad Beograd U19 (17:00 GMT) 1.57 4 4.75 109.69 %
maximize.gif Ajax U19 v Spartak Moscow U19 (17:30 GMT) 1.33 5.5 8.5 104.95 %
maximize.gif Celtic U19 v Puskas Akademia Felcsut U19 (19:00 GMT) 1.8 3.8 3.8 108.19 %
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Weds 25th Nov 07.00
Group C
Astana U19 - Benfica U19

4th v 1st in this group

Benfica have already qualified but haven't yet won the group which gives the advantage of going straight through without a playoff

UEFA website stats for reverse game in Portugal - Benfica first

goals: 8-0
shots on target: 20-0

So Benfica dominated the contest and Astana didn't have a shot on target

The shots on target stats for all group games so far show Benfica as superior by a huge margin. I would imagine Benfica will still be motivated to win this game as although they have already qualified, they have yet to win the group, which gives a big advantage. Galatasary won 3-0 in Astana and Atletico Madrid won 9-0. Marathon's handicap odds look appealing:

Benfica U19 -3AH
1.38
Marathon

Stake: 10 points

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Weds 25th Nov 11.00
Group C
Atletico Madrid U19 - Galatasaray U19

2nd v 3rd in this group

As in the Astana v Benfica game, the shots on target stats show Atletico as being far superior. They won the first game in Turkey 3-1. According to UEFA, Galatasaray have to score at least three goals and win by a margin of two or more. I really can't see them winning let alone by such a score, and if anything Atletico's attack might get more room on the counter if Galatasaray push forwards. I think it's likely that Atletico will win by quite a few goals and the handicap odds are good enough to take.

Atletico -2AH
1.7
Bet365

Stake: 5 points

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21 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Weds 25th Nov 07.00
Group C
Astana U19 - Benfica U19

4th v 1st in this group

Benfica have already qualified but haven't yet won the group which gives the advantage of going straight through without a playoff

UEFA website stats for reverse game in Portugal - Benfica first

goals: 8-0
shots on target: 20-0

So Benfica dominated the contest and Astana didn't have a shot on target

The shots on target stats for all group games so far show Benfica as superior by a huge margin. I would imagine Benfica will still be motivated to win this game as although they have already qualified, they have yet to win the group, which gives a big advantage. Galatasary won 3-0 in Astana and Atletico Madrid won 9-0. Marathon's handicap odds look appealing:

Benfica U19 -3AH
1.38
Marathon

Stake: 10 points

Result: Astana U19 0 Benfica U19 5

Bet won :ok

Stake: 10 points
Return: 13.8

Profit/loss = +3.8

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21 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Weds 25th Nov 11.00
Group C
Atletico Madrid U19 - Galatasaray U19

2nd v 3rd in this group

As in the Astana v Benfica game, the shots on target stats show Atletico as being far superior. They won the first game in Turkey 3-1. According to UEFA, Galatasaray have to score at least three goals and win by a margin of two or more. I really can't see them winning let alone by such a score, and if anything Atletico's attack might get more room on the counter if Galatasaray push forwards. I think it's likely that Atletico will win by quite a few goals and the handicap odds are good enough to take.

Atletico -2AH
1.7
Bet365

Stake: 5 points

Result: Atletico U19 4 Galatasaray U19 0

Bet won :ok

Stake: 5 points
Return: 8.5

Profit/loss = +3.5

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  • 2 weeks later...

Tuesday 8th Dec games:

 

Tuesday 8 December 2015 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Galatasaray SK U19 v FC Astana U19 (12:00 GMT) 1.07 13 50 103.15 %
maximize.gif Manchester City U19 v Borussia Mönchengladbach U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.48 4.65 5.7 106.62 %
maximize.gif Sevilla U19 v Juventus U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.97 3.45 3.66 107.07 %
maximize.gif Benfica U19 v Atlético de Madrid U19 (15:00 GMT) 2.06 3.76 3.14 106.99 %
maximize.gif Paris Saint-Germain U19 v Shakhtar Donetsk U19 (15:00 GMT) 1.28 6.3 9.5 104.52 %
maximize.gif PSV Eindhoven U19 v CSKA Moscow U19 (15:00 GMT) 2.06 3.65 3.24 106.81 %
maximize.gif Real Madrid CF U19 v Malmö FF U19 (15:00 GMT) 1.23 7.3 9.5 105.53 %
maximize.gif VfL Wolfsburg U19 v Manchester United U19 (15:00 GMT) 2.06 3.76 3.14 106.99 %
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Weds 9th Dec games:

Wednesday 9 December 2015 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Dynamo Kyiv U19 v Maccabi Tel Aviv U19 (12:00 GMT) 1.16 8 17.5 103.93 %
maximize.gif Chelsea U19 v FC Porto U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.63 4 5.3 105.22 %
maximize.gif GNK Dinamo Zagreb U19 v FC Bayern München U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.47 5 5.8 105.27 %
maximize.gif KAA Gent U19 v Zenit Saint-Petersburg U19 (13:00 GMT) 2.38 4 2.5 107.02 %
maximize.gif Valencia U19 v Olympique Lyonnais U19 (13:00 GMT) 2.38 4 2.5 107.02 %
maximize.gif AS Roma U19 v FC BATE Borisov U19 (13:30 GMT) 1.2 6.5 20 103.72 %
maximize.gif Bayer 04 Leverkusen U19 v FC Barcelona U19 (13:30 GMT) 2.82 4.1 2.2 105.31 %
maximize.gif Olympiacos U19 v Arsenal U19 (16:00 GMT) 3.2 3.75 2 107.92 %
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  • 1 month later...


Update Feb 7th 2016


The eight group winners were:

PSG
PSV
Benfica
Manchester City
Barcelona
Dinamo Zagreb
Chelsea
Lyon

These teams go straight to the round of 16 (to be played 22nd/23rd February)


The eight group runners up were:

Real Madrid
CSKA Moscow
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
Roma
Arsenal
Dynamo Kiev
Valencia

These eight teams play off against the eight winners of the Domestic Champions Path 2nd round, which were:

Ajax
Pribram
Salzburg
Anderlecht
Celtic
Elfsborg
Middlesbro
Midtjylland

 

The play off matches will be played on 9th and 10th February. The playoff winners play against the group winners in the round of 16.

Play offs - Tues 9th/Weds 10th Feb

Tues 9th Feb
Ajax v Sevilla
Anderlecht v Arsenal
Middlesbro v Dynamo Kiev

Weds 10th Feb
Salzburg v Roma
Pribram v CSKA Moscow
Midtjylland v Atletico Madrid
Celtic v Valencia
Elfsborg v Real Madrid

 

The Domestic Champions Path are at home. Ties are a single match only. I think home advantage may be given to the Domestic Champions patch sides because the Champions League group runners up should be stronger teams.

Edited by MPLouis
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Is there any particular reason why Boro are priced as favourites to win tonight at home to Dynamo?Bet365 are not offering much info on the UK side while Dynamo look like they are on a hell of a form right now.Personally i am thinking of going with Dynamo 0AH @ above evs but any further data will be appreciated!

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  Tuesday 9 February 2016 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Ajax U19 v Sevilla U19 (15:00 GMT) 1.69 4.5 5.25 100.44 %
maximize.gif Anderlecht U19 v Arsenal U19 (17:00 GMT) 2.42 3.8 2.86 102.60 %
maximize.gif Middlesbrough U19 v Dynamo Kyiv U19 (19:00 GMT) 2.3 3.7 3.2 101.76 %
  Wednesday 10 February 2016 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif Salzburg U19 v AS Roma U19 (15:00 GMT) 2.38 4 2.45 107.83 %
maximize.gif 1. FK Pribram U19 v CSKA Moscow U19 (16:00 GMT) 3 3.75 2.1 107.62 %
maximize.gif FC Midtjylland U19 v Atlético de Madrid U19 (16:00 GMT) 6 4.5 1.44 108.12 %
maximize.gif Celtic U19 v Valencia U19 (17:00 GMT) 4.4 4.33 1.63 107.15 %
maximize.gif IF Elfsborg U19 v Real Madrid CF U19 (17:00 GMT) 5.25 4.5 1.5 107.94 %

 

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34 minutes ago, Simeon Borisof said:

Is there any particular reason why Boro are priced as favourites to win tonight at home to Dynamo?Bet365 are not offering much info on the UK side while Dynamo look like they are on a hell of a form right now.Personally i am thinking of going with Dynamo 0AH @ above evs but any further data will be appreciated!

Remember these are Under 19 teams, not full ones. It's the UEFA Youth League. I only say so because I've confused them myself in the past ;)

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2 minutes ago, MPLouis said:

Remember these are Under 19 teams, not full ones. It's the UEFA Youth League. I only say so because I've confused them myself in the past ;)

:lol i am aware of that but still needed double checking it.As i said,the fixture is so short on info but based on bet365 stats and the wiki you shared i suppose the draw no bet might be a wise choice here.The Ukranian side had finished 2nd in a tougher group on paper and might be too good today.

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20 minutes ago, Simeon Borisof said:

:lol i am aware of that but still needed double checking it.As i said,the fixture is so short on info but based on bet365 stats and the wiki you shared i suppose the draw no bet might be a wise choice here.The Ukranian side had finished 2nd in a tougher group on paper and might be too good today.

Boro are in the competition after winning the U18 Premier League in 2015 ahead of sides like Man City and Chelsea, so have a good side. In their two 'Domestic Champions patch' games, they beat Reims and Torino over 2 legs. Torino were the youth champions of Italy so that was an achievement for Boro.

Kiev finished runners up to Chelsea in Group G. Both sides were stronger at home than away.

At first glance, I would have said possible value on Kiev, but looking at it more closely, the value could be with Boro given their pedigree at this level, and home advantage.

Remember it's a single tie only.

Previews for Boro website:

http://www.mfc.co.uk/news/article/2016/boro-dynamo-kiev-riverside-uefa-youth-league-2946684.aspx

http://www.mfc.co.uk/news/article/2016/boro-uefa-youth-league-dynamo-kiev-riverside-2938697.aspx
 

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On paper, Pribram, Celtic and Elfsborg all look possible value today, at home to sides from the Group stage. This is on comparing shots on target stats from both teams, both for and against.

But Pribram, Celtic and Elfsborg seem to have played lesser sides in their domestic champions path games, which should probably be factored in.

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Weds 10th Feb 16.00
Midtjylland U19 v Atletico Madrid U19

I think Atletico could be a little value here. Their shots on target stats are a lot better than Midtjylland's. They came second in a group with Benfica, Galatasaray and Astana.
In recent years, they have won 6 and drawn 2 of their last 10 away games at this level, winning away at Zenit, Olympiakos, Malmo, Juventus, Galatasaray and Astana.

Midtylland beat Saburtalo Tbilisi and Legia in their Domestic Champions path ties. Midtylland were Danish youth champions last season.

I think Atletico should win by a few goals here, and are reasonable value at current handicap prices

Atletico U19 -1AH
1.72
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

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