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UEFA Youth League 2015/2016

MPLouis

By MPLouis
in Champions League Predictions

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Weds 10th Feb 17.00
Celtic U19 v Valencia U19

Celtic qualified for this match by beating HJK and Puskas Akademia, Valencia finished second in their group containing Lyon, Gent and Zenit. So I think Valencia had tougher opponents.

Celtic's shots on target stats are better than Valencia's (although I think Celtic's possibly inferior opponents should be taken into account).

Celtic have quite a good home record at this level. In recent years, they have played Marseille, Sporting, PSV, Barcelona, Ajax and Milan at home in Glasgow in different competitions, and their record is:

Won 3
Drawn 1
Lost 2

Home advantage seems to count for more at this level, so I think that should be factored in.

Celtic do represent some value at odds of over 4.0 today, I think

Celtic U19 or draw
2.2
Bet365

Stake: 5 points


Previews from Celtic website:

http://www.celticfc.net/news/10022

http://www.celticfc.net/news/10026

Edited by MPLouis
forgot stake
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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11 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Weds 10th Feb 16.00
Midtjylland U19 v Atletico Madrid U19

I think Atletico could be a little value here. Their shots on target stats are a lot better than Midtjylland's. They came second in a group with Benfica, Galatasaray and Astana.
In recent years, they have won 6 and drawn 2 of their last 10 away games at this level, winning away at Zenit, Olympiakos, Malmo, Juventus, Galatasaray and Astana.

Midtylland beat Saburtalo Tbilisi and Legia in their Domestic Champions path ties. Midtylland were Danish youth champions last season.

I think Atletico should win by a few goals here, and are reasonable value at current handicap prices

Atletico U19 -1AH
1.72
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

Result at 90 mins: 4-4

Bet lost

Stake: 5 points
Return: nil

Profit/loss = -5 points

From what I saw, Midtjylland were the better side and deserved to go through, which they did by winning on penalties. I thought Atletico were quite poor.

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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11 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Weds 10th Feb 17.00
Celtic U19 v Valencia U19

Celtic qualified for this match by beating HJK and Puskas Akademia, Valencia finished second in their group containing Lyon, Gent and Zenit. So I think Valencia had tougher opponents.

Celtic's shots on target stats are better than Valencia's (although I think Celtic's possibly inferior opponents should be taken into account).

Celtic have quite a good home record at this level. In recent years, they have played Marseille, Sporting, PSV, Barcelona, Ajax and Milan at home in Glasgow in different competitions, and their record is:

Won 3
Drawn 1
Lost 2

Home advantage seems to count for more at this level, so I think that should be factored in.

Celtic do represent some value at odds of over 4.0 today, I think

Celtic U19 or draw
2.2
Bet365

Stake: 5 points


Previews from Celtic website:

http://www.celticfc.net/news/10022

http://www.celticfc.net/news/10026

Result at 90 mins: 1-1

Bet won :ok

Stake: 5 points
Return: 11 points

Profit/loss = +6 points

From the stats and commentary on Celtic's twitter feed, it sounded as though Valencia had the better of the game, so Celtic may have been a bit lucky. Valencia won the tie on penalties.

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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The draw for the round of 16 will be made on Monday 15th February. Round 16 games will be on Monday 22nd and Tuesday 23rd February.

The sixteen teams are:


UEFA Champions League path group winners

Paris Saint-Germain (A)
PSV Eindhoven (B)
Benfica (C)
Manchester City (D)
Barcelona (E)
Dinamo Zagreb (F)
Chelsea (G, holders)
Lyon (H)


Play-off winners

Ajax
Anderlecht
Middlesbrough
Midtjylland
Příbram
Real Madrid (Group A runners-up)

Roma (Group E runners-up)
Valencia (Group H runners-up)


http://www.uefa.com/uefayouthleague/season=2016/draws/round=2000704/index.html

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Round of 16 draw (matches to be played on 23 or 24 February)

PSV (NED) v Roma (ITA)

Príbram (CZE) v Benfica (POR)

Anderlecht (BEL) v Din Zagreb (CRO)

Lyon (FRA) v Ajax (NED)

Chelsea (ENG) v Valencia (ESP)

Real Madrid (ESP) v Man City (ENG)

PSG (FRA) v Middlesbro (ENG)

Barcelona (ESP) v Midtjylland (DEN)

http://www.uefa.com/uefayouthleague/news/newsid=2331162.html

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Round of 16 - Tues 23/Weds 24 Feb ...

  Tuesday 23 February 2016 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif FC Barcelona U19 v FC Midtjylland U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.3 5.8 10 104.16 %
maximize.gif Chelsea U19 v Valencia U19 (15:00 GMT) 1.56 4.4 5.9 103.78 %
maximize.gif Real Madrid CF U19 v Manchester City U19 (17:00 GMT) 2 3.9 3.75 102.31 %
maximize.gif Anderlecht U19 v GNK Dinamo Zagreb U19 (18:00 GMT) 1.82 4.1 4.5 101.56 %
  Wednesday 24 February 2016 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif PSV Eindhoven U19 v AS Roma U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.02 1.02 1.02 294.12 %
maximize.gif Paris Saint-Germain U19 v Middlesbrough U19 (15:00 GMT) 1.02 1.02 1.02 294.12 %
maximize.gif 1. FK Pribram U19 v Benfica U19 (16:00 GMT) 1.02 1.02 1.02 294.12 %
maximize.gif Olympique Lyonnais U19 v Ajax U19 (16:00 GMT) 1.02 1.02 1.02 294.12 %
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Round of 16 - Tues 23/Weds 24 Feb ...

  Tuesday 23 February 2016 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif FC Barcelona U19 v FC Midtjylland U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.3 5.8 10 104.16 %
maximize.gif Chelsea U19 v Valencia U19 (15:00 GMT) 1.56 4.4 5.9 103.78 %
maximize.gif Real Madrid CF U19 v Manchester City U19 (17:00 GMT) 2 3.9 3.75 102.31 %
maximize.gif Anderlecht U19 v GNK Dinamo Zagreb U19 (18:00 GMT) 1.82 4.1 4.5 101.56 %
  Wednesday 24 February 2016 Home Draw Away BPP
maximize.gif PSV Eindhoven U19 v AS Roma U19 (13:00 GMT) 1.02 1.02 1.02 294.12 %
maximize.gif Paris Saint-Germain U19 v Middlesbrough U19 (15:00 GMT) 1.02 1.02 1.02 294.12 %
maximize.gif 1. FK Pribram U19 v Benfica U19 (16:00 GMT) 1.02 1.02 1.02 294.12 %
maximize.gif Olympique Lyonnais U19 v Ajax U19 (16:00 GMT) 1.02 1.02 1.02 294.12 %
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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Quarter Finals


Tues 8th March 2016

15.00
Real Madrid U19 v Benfica U19


17.00
Anderlecht U19 v Barcelona U19

*Anderlecht have been reinstated at the expense of Dinamo Zagreb who were deemed to have fielded an ineligible player

 

Weds 9th March

15.00
PSG U19 v Roma U19

 

Tues 15th March

17.00
Chelsea U19 v Ajax U19


http://www.uefa.com/uefayouthleague/news/newsid=2336061.html

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MPLouis

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Tues 8 Mar
15.00
Real Madrid U19 v Benfica U19

Benfica's odds look too high here. They tend to do well in this competition. The last time the teams met at this level, Benfica won 4-0 away in the semi final in 2014. Unlike some teams, Benfica U19 have recently had good results away as well as home. Their recent away record is similar to Madrid's home one.

Benfica won their group and beat Pribram in the Round of 16. Real were second in their group and beat Elfsborg in the playoffs and Man City in the Round of 16.

Benfica's shots on target statistics (shots for and against in each match) are better than Real's.

Benfica made the quarter finals in 2015 and the final in 2014. Real made the round of 16 in 2015 in the semi final in 2014.

Worth backing Benfica at current odds, I think …

Benfica U19 or draw
2.15
Marathon

Stake: 10 points

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MPLouis

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Tues 8 Mar
17.00
Anderlecht U19 v Barcelona U19

Anderlecht got lucky when they were reinstated at the expense of Dinamo Zagreb who were deemed to have fielded an ineligible player in the Round of 16 match. Lucky for Anderlecht, because they lost the game 2-0.

They entered this competition as Belgian Youth champions - joining the 'Domestic Champions path'. In earlier games, they beat Brann and Servette, then beat Arsenal in playoff before losing to Zagreb the round of 16 - and being let back in.

Barcelona won their group, then beat Midtylland in the round of 16.

Anderlecht made the semi-finals in 2015 and were knocked out in the group stage in 2014.

Barcelona and won the competition in 2014 and lost to Anderlecht in the round of 16 in 2015. Overall, the clubs have met 3 times at this level in the last 4 years, once in the UEFA Youth League, and twice in the now defunct NextGen series. In the three games, Anderlecht won one and two were draws.

Anderlecht's shots on target stats are better than Barcelona's this year. Anderecht's home record is better than Barcelona's away one. Anderlecht get big crowds watching them at the Vanden Stock stadium in Brussels - they had a competition record over 12,000 to watch them beat Barcelona last year.

With their better shots record and strong home record, I think Anderlecht are some value at current odds ...

Anderlecht U19 or draw
1.83
Marathon

Stake: 8 points

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Weds 9 Mar
15.00
PSG U19 v Roma U19

Once again, I see possible value backing the underdog here - this time Roma - at current long-looking odds.

PSG won group A and narrowly beat Middlesbro at home in the round of 16. Roma were runners up in Group E. They won away to Salzburg in the playoff, then won on penalties at PSV in the round of 16.

Roma's shots on target stats in the games so far are better than PSG's. I think Roma's odds should be taken at over 4.6 …


Roma +1AH
1.77
Marathon

Stake: 8 points

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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On 3/7/2016, 4:59:45, MPLouis said:

Tues 8 Mar
15.00
Real Madrid U19 v Benfica U19

Benfica's odds look too high here. They tend to do well in this competition. The last time the teams met at this level, Benfica won 4-0 away in the semi final in 2014. Unlike some teams, Benfica U19 have recently had good results away as well as home. Their recent away record is similar to Madrid's home one.

Benfica won their group and beat Pribram in the Round of 16. Real were second in their group and beat Elfsborg in the playoffs and Man City in the Round of 16.

Benfica's shots on target statistics (shots for and against in each match) are better than Real's.

Benfica made the quarter finals in 2015 and the final in 2014. Real made the round of 16 in 2015 in the semi final in 2014.

Worth backing Benfica at current odds, I think …

Benfica U19 or draw
2.15
Marathon

Stake: 10 points

Result:
Real Madrid U19 2 v Benfica U19 0

Bet lost

Stake: 10 points
Return: nil
Profit/loss = -10 points

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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On 3/7/2016, 5:00:22, MPLouis said:

Tues 8 Mar
17.00
Anderlecht U19 v Barcelona U19

Anderlecht got lucky when they were reinstated at the expense of Dinamo Zagreb who were deemed to have fielded an ineligible player in the Round of 16 match. Lucky for Anderlecht, because they lost the game 2-0.

They entered this competition as Belgian Youth champions - joining the 'Domestic Champions path'. In earlier games, they beat Brann and Servette, then beat Arsenal in playoff before losing to Zagreb the round of 16 - and being let back in.

Barcelona won their group, then beat Midtylland in the round of 16.

Anderlecht made the semi-finals in 2015 and were knocked out in the group stage in 2014.

Barcelona and won the competition in 2014 and lost to Anderlecht in the round of 16 in 2015. Overall, the clubs have met 3 times at this level in the last 4 years, once in the UEFA Youth League, and twice in the now defunct NextGen series. In the three games, Anderlecht won one and two were draws.

Anderlecht's shots on target stats are better than Barcelona's this year. Anderecht's home record is better than Barcelona's away one. Anderlecht get big crowds watching them at the Vanden Stock stadium in Brussels - they had a competition record over 12,000 to watch them beat Barcelona last year.

With their better shots record and strong home record, I think Anderlecht are some value at current odds ...

Anderlecht U19 or draw
1.83
Marathon

Stake: 8 points

Result:
Anderlecht U19 2 Barcelona U19 0

Bet won 

Stake: 8 points
Return: 14.64 points

Profit/loss = +6.64

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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On 3/8/2016, 2:02:19, MPLouis said:

Weds 9 Mar
15.00
PSG U19 v Roma U19

Once again, I see possible value backing the underdog here - this time Roma - at current long-looking odds.

PSG won group A and narrowly beat Middlesbro at home in the round of 16. Roma were runners up in Group E. They won away to Salzburg in the playoff, then won on penalties at PSV in the round of 16.

Roma's shots on target stats in the games so far are better than PSG's. I think Roma's odds should be taken at over 4.6 …


Roma +1AH
1.77
Marathon

Stake: 8 points

Result:
PSG U19 3  Roma U19 1

Bet lost

Stake: 8 points
Return: nil
Profit/loss = -8 points

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Tues 15 Mar
16.00
Chelsea U19 v Ajax U19


Holders Chelsea look attractively priced here at longer odds than Ajax, particularly with home advantage, which counts for quite a bit in this competition.

Chelsea AH0
2.24
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

 

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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2 hours ago, MPLouis said:

Tues 15 Mar
16.00
Chelsea U19 v Ajax U19


Holders Chelsea look attractively priced here at longer odds than Ajax, particularly with home advantage, which counts for quite a bit in this competition.

Chelsea AH0
2.24
Marathon

Stake: 5 points

 

Result:
Chelsea U19 1 Ajax U19 0

Bet won :ok

Stake: 5 points
Return: 11.2

Profit/loss = +6.2 points

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