Jump to content
Announcements
** November Poker League Result : 1st ian309, 2nd muttley, 3rd Burnley Joe **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st MrJol, 2nd buga00, 3rd glavintoby, 4th Boulder5111, 5th bobsyerunkle **
** November Nap's Competition Result: 1st andellio, 2nd Saddlesore, 3rd bymatrix, 4th MrJol KO Cup: DonnyFlyer, Most Winners: Astleavista**

Monthly Naps Comp Sunday 15th November


Recommended Posts

2.10 Cheltenham - Savello @ 14/1 PaddyPower

Moved to Skelton's yard for 46k and was a decent 4th on his reappearance over hurdles and that should put him spot on for this with going back over fences was always the aim for connections. Sprinter is ripe to be taken on these days, Simply Ned will want the ground better than this with more rain in the forecast, Mr Mole has a horrific record here and Somersby has a poor strike rate and will likely come on for the run at this age. Everything points towards an upset and with Skelton's exceptional record at improving horses Savello could be the one here.

Link to post
Share on other sites

2.10 Cheltenham - Sprinter Sacre win @ 3/1 PaddyPower

He's obviously not the same horse he was a few years ago but on these terms I'm happy to get involved with him at 3/1. He's getting weight from all horses with the exception of Somersby who he beat a couple of times off level weights last year so that form should be confirmed. Sprinter Sacre also had Mr Mole behind him when finishing 2nd lto and again he should be beating him today in receipt of 10lbs. He's gone well fresh before, he's 3 from 4 at Cheltenham over fences and there's been nothing but positives coming out of the yard so it sounds like he's fit and ready to go. Any rain is a concern as it doesn't look like he'll run on testing ground so hopefully the rain stays away and we get a run.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheltenham 3:15: Scoop The Pot @ sp e/w thanks

Scoop The Pot......from Philip Hobbs yard the 5yo is a JP McManus owned horse which has only had the 3 runs which happened at start of year when AP McCoy rode the first two races a 2nd place in first run at Wincanton 2m heavy and the next race a win of a Novice hurdle race at Ludlow 2m on soft ground , His last race before a summer brake came at Wincanton 2m 4f soft in Handicap Hurdle where James Best took over in saddle ,

The youngster still learning with this run at Cheltenham being his biggest test so far with Ciaran Gethings taking the ride after being kicked on hip last month at Exeter, Ciaran claims 6lb of his back always worth backing a JP McManus horse

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

100 Cheltenham: Simon Squirrel 6/1 Bet365

Fascinating novice hurdle and in truth it should be watched without any cash invested as it's a race that could go one or two ways. I just think the betting is wrong and its worth having a punt on the Paul Nicholls runner Simon Squirrel.

For a start i wasn't convinced by the Henderson runner last time, he found enough under pressure but should have won that with more authority. Maputo is a nice sort but faces soft ground and a stiff track for he first time here. He has won at Stratford, Huntingdon, Kempton and Perth. Cheltenham is a complete different ball game. If he win this like his other races then he will be a Festival candidate, overall he's too short to take the chance today.

The race here that Mister Miyagi beat Drumlee Sunset appears to have been labelled as not good enough by the bookies, i wouldn't be that quick to dismiss the form and actually think that the Hobbs runner will get his revenge and is not a bad price. Brian Ellison sends his Viens Chercher down to see how good he is, he's won at Sedgefield and Market Rasen and is up against it here on that form.

Simon Squirrel won well at Chepstow on his bumper debut in softish ground and then ran below par in a Listed contest at Ascot. After a break he came out and won on his hurdles debut at Newton Abbot in fine style. That was over 2m2f so although his form may need improving on he has proved he has enough stamina for this test and goes in soft ground. He can only improve, the yard are going well and is the one horse that is proven in todays conditions. At the prices he has to be the bet for me in an intriguing contest.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Font 4.00 - Sylvan Legend - win at 3/1 bog bet365

Low grade handicap chase

My selection has won over fences over today's CD and ran well last time out in a better race to finish 3rd. Has been dropped a couple of pounds after that run

Acts on good to soft so hopefully the ground won't be too sticky

Market rival and current favourite is Lady From Geneva, a maiden who ran poorly on her two chase outings. Her market position is due to a couple of decent runs over hurdles but I'm banking that she's just not as good over the bigger obstacles.......flat bred mare (by Generous !) just might not be a chasing type

 

ps.............I was unable to open a 'Reply' box to type into with my normal browser (IE)........I've had to try Firefox which appears to work

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

2.10 Cheltenham: Shloer Chase (Grade 2), 2m

Quite an intriguing contest that obviously evolves very much around the question: how good is Sprinter Sacre? His trainer is less than quietly confident, in fact he's actually been bullish in his comments earlier this week.

Personally I'm not convinced. The problems this former superstar had are well known. Is he really 100% on his seasonal debut? I doubt it. The ground turning softer than you want it for him with all the issues around the breathing is a big question mark, so is the Cheltenham hill these days.

As much as I would love to see Sprinter Sacre back to something close of his best, so much I have to doubt he'll ever be. In my book he is more like a 6/1 chance in this field than the 5/2 currently on offer. With the ground in mind he may well be taken out anyway.

Another of the old guard of former superstars is Somersby. Surely never been reached the heights of Sprinter Sacre, though the veteran is a multiple Champion Chase runner-up as well as 19 times placed in Graded company! That says he has won only a handful of those and can be best described as a depressing brides mate.

Not getting any younger, the eleven year old veteran would need to be close to his best to win today. Reportedly he's in good order and I assume he's geared up for a big run. Whether he has still the class, we'll find out. He had it last season, certainly, when he finished second - yet again - in the Champion Chase at the Festival.

Having his poor strike rate in mind and the fact that Somersby has actually never won at Cheltenham, he's probably easy enough to oppose. However in the context of this race, where he receives four pounds from rivals lower rated than him, as well as 10 pounds from Mr Mole, he's has to have strong credentials, nonetheless.

Mr. Mole, albeit seemingly not really enjoining Cheltenham in the past, would be a huge runner today, if he wouldn't have to give an awful lot of weight away to the rest of the field. His record as a fresh horse does offset this fact to an extend, but he would need to run to a new level to win this. As a seven year old he could do that, if you want to be positive about his chances.

Croco Bay and Savello are the outsiders in this field, and given their ratings of 151 and 154 you'd expect them to come up short. You can argue both have fitness on their side and - at least in the case of Savello - course and distance form on offer. So neither of them is completely out. Taken the quality of the rest of the field into account I struggle to see them going close, though.

Without the shadow of a doubt Simply Ned has the race at his mercy. The eight year old was runner-up in this contest last year, a race which turned out to be extremely strong form. He has a run under his belt as well, returning to the track in successful manner at Kelso last month.

He looks an improving sort, possible to be even better this year and that gives him a prime chance today. He didn't land a blow in the Champion Chase last season, though, and has to give 4lb away to Somersby and Sprinter Sacre, despite the fact that these two are higher rated. So he will have to improve again, a bit at least, although those two lads may regress as well.

Summary: Crunch time! This should be exciting to watch. I believe Simply Ned has an excellent chance to take his form to another level. He's a fair price to do that and clearly is the one to beat. But betting wise I feel the 5/1 on offer for Somersby is generous. Despite his underwhelming win record, the fact that he finished runner-up in the Champion Chase last season gives him the strongest possible credentials in this race.

He receives four pounds from what I believe is the main danger. He's likely to be fully wound up for the race today and has no issues with the conditions whatsoever. This looks an ideal opportunity to win a race at the jump racing's HQ at last.

Sommersby @ 5/1 Paddy Power

Link to post
Share on other sites

Later

5 hours ago, Trotter said:

Font 4.00 - Sylvan Legend - win at 3/1 bog bet365

Low grade handicap chase

My selection has won over fences over today's CD and ran well last time out in a better race to finish 3rd. Has been dropped a couple of pounds after that run

Acts on good to soft so hopefully the ground won't be too sticky

Market rival and current favourite is Lady From Geneva, a maiden who ran poorly on her two chase outings. Her market position is due to a couple of decent runs over hurdles but I'm banking that she's just not as good over the bigger obstacles.......flat bred mare (by Generous !) just might not be a chasing type

 

ps.............I was unable to open a 'Reply' box to type into with my normal browser (IE)........I've had to try Firefox which appears to work

 

 

4 hours ago, Tipsterix said:

16:10 Cork: DANALI @ 6/1 Bet365

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...