Champions League ~ November 24th & 25th

[Aidymac]

Odds with Bet365

[owenclass]

Man City are great odds to beat Juventus

Edited November 7, 2015 by owenclass

[MPLouis]

Who could go through or be eliminated next time?

UEFA article:

http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=2302129.html#who+could+through+eliminated+next+time

[JuMeSyn]

Still early to call it as it is, but Astana have a big chance of upsetting SL Benfica.

SL Benfica may be the first of their group in the CL, but it is nothing short than a big lie. They are first because of the 2-1 win in Vicente Calderon, where they were outplayed for most of the time and Julio Cesar and a very spirited exhibition from them made the win. But tactically speaking, the team is very well below what their real ambitions are and does not play well. They manage to create good plays once in a while, but all are merit from individual skills from Gaitan, Jonas or Mitroglou. Defensively, they are even worst...They are led by Rui Vitória, a very average manager that is starting to be criticised by the fans since the 0-3 home loss against Sporting in October. I seriously think he will be dismissed before the end of the season.

Yesterday, SL Benfica played an ET against Sporting once again for the Portuguese Cup, and lost 1-2, therefore going off the cup. Currently they face 8 points behind the leaders Sporting, next match is against Braga away (where they will possibly lose more points). Many players ended the match with serious physical difficulties, Luisão actually got injured and will be off for 2 months. Gaitan also with physical troubles but he will not be able to play due to suspension. And he is the most important SL Benfica player. Actually most of the attacking dynamics depend on him solely. Adding to that, Mitroglou and Jonas are also doubtful (but will probably play), while Fesja and Semedo are still recovering from injuries.

I should also add that Benfica will also travel to Kazakhstan. It is a very long and tiresome trip. And that adding to the fact that most of the first team players did play 120 minutes yesterday...

On the other hand, Astana already proved well enough in this group. Not the most individually skilled team, but well organized and looked excellent from what I've saw against Benfica away and Atletico home. Managed to stop Atletico at home and until the Benfica 1-0, they actually were the best team and had the best chances. Astana knows that this a crucial moment and will fight hard no matter what, even if for the draw, just for the 500m€ in case of draw.

For me, everything is set for Astana to cause an upset. I actually think that they will win, due to all the circumstances that I've noted, but a draw could also be possible because SL Benfica still has more individual quality. I will go for the Draw or Astana @ 2.33 (Unibet) 70% and Astana @ 6.2 (Marathon Bet) 30%

[MPLouis]

12 hours ago, JuMeSyn said:

Still early to call it as it is, but Astana have a big chance of upsetting SL Benfica.

SL Benfica may be the first of their group in the CL, but it is nothing short than a big lie. They are first because of the 2-1 win in Vicente Calderon, where they were outplayed for most of the time and Julio Cesar and a very spirited exhibition from them made the win. But tactically speaking, the team is very well below what their real ambitions are and does not play well. They manage to create good plays once in a while, but all are merit from individual skills from Gaitan, Jonas or Mitroglou. Defensively, they are even worst...They are led by Rui Vitória, a very average manager that is starting to be criticised by the fans since the 0-3 home loss against Sporting in October. I seriously think he will be dismissed before the end of the season.

Yesterday, SL Benfica played an ET against Sporting once again for the Portuguese Cup, and lost 1-2, therefore going off the cup. Currently they face 8 points behind the leaders Sporting, next match is against Braga away (where they will possibly lose more points). Many players ended the match with serious physical difficulties, Luisão actually got injured and will be off for 2 months. Gaitan also with physical troubles but he will not be able to play due to suspension. And he is the most important SL Benfica player. Actually most of the attacking dynamics depend on him solely. Adding to that, Mitroglou and Jonas are also doubtful (but will probably play), while Fesja and Semedo are still recovering from injuries.

I should also add that Benfica will also travel to Kazakhstan. It is a very long and tiresome trip. And that adding to the fact that most of the first team players did play 120 minutes yesterday...

On the other hand, Astana already proved well enough in this group. Not the most individually skilled team, but well organized and looked excellent from what I've saw against Benfica away and Atletico home. Managed to stop Atletico at home and until the Benfica 1-0, they actually were the best team and had the best chances. Astana knows that this a crucial moment and will fight hard no matter what, even if for the draw, just for the 500m€ in case of draw.

For me, everything is set for Astana to cause an upset. I actually think that they will win, due to all the circumstances that I've noted, but a draw could also be possible because SL Benfica still has more individual quality. I will go for the Draw or Astana @ 2.33 (Unibet) 70% and Astana @ 6.2 (Marathon Bet) 30%

My shots on target stats for this group suggest Benfica to win this game by about 1 goal, which matches the odds. However, the elo ratings for this match for 'clubelo' give Benfica a 72% chance of winning the game, much higher than the 57% implied by the latest odds of 1.76. The elo rating suggests value backing Benfica at these odds.

Benfica are very likely to qualify anyway and Astana have a bigger incentive to get something here as they are battling Galatasaray for 3rd place and Europa League entry. That factor makes it a 'no bet' for me.

[Simeon Borisof]

After winning the league title twice in a row 1st of which was the 1st in their history and making it to the group stages of the CL,Stanimir Stoilov said after the saturday's lost final.that he will be leaving.He leaves the team in a good condition and with the right management they could make it 3 consecutive league cups in a row.The crowd loves him and the team will play for him on Wednesday.They have a great fan support and the weather out there must be freezing these days.Astana's players are not techincally gifted but are in a high spirits and fired up to take their 1st win in CL.I don't know whether they can do that but given the info about Benfica i definetely think they won't lose in midweek.

[StevieDay1983]

Arsenal vs Dinamo Zagreb Preview: Gunners face must-win clash to keep faint qualification hopes alive

Arsene Wenger's Arsenal side face an all-or-nothing clash against Croatian outfit Dinamo Zagreb where anything but a win will result in elimination from this season's Champions League competition at the group stages.

THE BET

European Handicap: Arsenal -2 @ 13/8 with Sky Bet

Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/arsenal-vs-dinamo-zagreb-preview-gunners-face-must-win-clash-to-keep-faint-qualification-hopes-alive

[StevieDay1983]

Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Chelsea Preview: Victory in Israel could seal qualification for Mourinho's Blues

Chelsea travel to Israel to face Group G's bottom placed side Maccabi Tel-Aviv knowing that a win will almost certainly seal a last 16 spot in the Champions League for the Blues.

THE BET

European Handicap: Chelsea -1 @ 11/10 with Paddy Power

Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/maccabi-tel-aviv-vs-chelsea-preview-victory-in-israel-could-seal-qualification-for-mourinho-s-blues

[mrclubbie]

Any comments with regards to these matches ?

BATE vs Leverkusen High scoring teams in their group, with Leverkusen averaging 5.25 goals while BATE averaging 3.75 goals. This is also a match both teams must get all 3 points as well to stand that slight chance of qualifications. Besides that, both teams have tough games for their final matches. For this match, however, it seems that Leverkusen has a number of injuries/absentees for this match. Is OVER 2.5 a sensible bet here ?

Zenit vs Valencia Zenit is one hot form team in UCL, winning all 4 of their matches. They can just park the bus and force this match to a draw or even lose their match. Valencia on the other hand needs to grab points for this match. But Valencia has a list of injuries/absentees. Is Valencia DNB/Valencia draw or away a sensible bet here ?

Porto vs Dynamo Kiev From what I see, Porto has to win this match and get all 3 points to secure their 1st position spot. Dynamo Kiev has to win this game as well for the slight chance to qualify for the next round (otherwise, they will be going to UEL instead). On average, Dynamo Kiev has been quite low scoring for their group qualification matches. Is UNDER 2.5 a sensible bet here ?

Thanks

[StevieDay1983]

Manchester United vs PSV Preview: Will the Theatre of Dreams witness another magical Manchester moment?

Louis Van Gaal and his Manchester United side just need a win at home to PSV to qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League on Wednesday night but having already suffered defeat to the Eindhoven club in their opening group match they will be more than aware of the threat the opposition pose.

THE BET

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ Evens with Bwin

Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/manchester-united-vs-psv-preview-will-the-theatre-of-dreams-witness-another-magical-manchester-moment

[StevieDay1983]

3 hours ago, mrclubbie said:

Any comments with regards to these matches ?

BATE vs Leverkusen High scoring teams in their group, with Leverkusen averaging 5.25 goals while BATE averaging 3.75 goals. This is also a match both teams must get all 3 points as well to stand that slight chance of qualifications. Besides that, both teams have tough games for their final matches. For this match, however, it seems that Leverkusen has a number of injuries/absentees for this match. Is OVER 2.5 a sensible bet here ?

Zenit vs Valencia Zenit is one hot form team in UCL, winning all 4 of their matches. They can just park the bus and force this match to a draw or even lose their match. Valencia on the other hand needs to grab points for this match. But Valencia has a list of injuries/absentees. Is Valencia DNB/Valencia draw or away a sensible bet here ?

Porto vs Dynamo Kiev From what I see, Porto has to win this match and get all 3 points to secure their 1st position spot. Dynamo Kiev has to win this game as well for the slight chance to qualify for the next round (otherwise, they will be going to UEL instead). On average, Dynamo Kiev has been quite low scoring for their group qualification matches. Is UNDER 2.5 a sensible bet here ?

Thanks

Over 2.5 goals in the BATE vs Leverkusen game is odds on but I think at least three goals will go in here. Leverkusen have been lethal in front of goal and I can see them scoring at least 2-3 goals. BATE might well score one too being at home. 3-1 or 4-1 as a final score to the away side?

Russia is a minefield at this time of year with the cold weather so it will be a brave bet to go against them on their home turf. Valencia have a decent squad but, as you mention, they have injuries and if you want to go to their place and get a result you need to be at full strength. A draw is possibly more feasible but I'd be surprised if Valencia won.

Porto are looking class this year. I can see them winning by a couple of goals. Under 2.5 goals is risky though. Their defence could be better but Dynamo Kiev have never been the best travellers. I'd say a European Handicap could be better here or even over 2.5 goals again.

[StevieDay1983]

Juventus vs Manchester City Preview: Can Pellegrini's men secure first place in Group D against the Old Lady?

Juventus welcome Manchester City to Turin in this top-of-the-group clash on Wednesday night. A win for the home side would guarantee them qualification to the last 16. A win for the already-qualified away side would see them seal top spot. Both sides have everything to gain!

THE BET

Juventus To Win Outright @ 27/20 with Coral

Full Preview: https://www.punterslounge.com/juventus-vs-manchester-city-preview-can-pellegrini-s-men-secure-first-place-in-group-d-against-the-old-lady

[malabgd]

Arsenal v Dinamo Zagreb

Arsenal: Coquelin (12/0 m), Arteta (7/0 m), Wilshire (0/0 m), Walcott (8/2 f), Oxlade-Chamberlain (10/0 m), Rosický (0/0 m), Welbeck (0/0 f)

Dinamo Zagreb: Pivarić (11/0 d, suspended), Ademi (8/0 m, UEFA 4-year suspension), Hodžić (12/9 f, top scorer), Schieldenfled (0/0 d)

 

Bayern München v Olympiakos Pireus

Bayern München: Bernat (5/0 m), Götze (7/1 m), Ribery (0/0 m), Thiago (11/0 m), Alaba (13/1 d, doubtful)

Olympiakos Pireus: Bouchalakis (1/1 m), Botía (6/4 d), Pulido (0/0 f), Durmaz (10/4 m, 2nd top scorer)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 50 football leagues and competitions at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

[mrclubbie]

7 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Over 2.5 goals in the BATE vs Leverkusen game is odds on but I think at least three goals will go in here. Leverkusen have been lethal in front of goal and I can see them scoring at least 2-3 goals. BATE might well score one too being at home. 3-1 or 4-1 as a final score to the away side?

Russia is a minefield at this time of year with the cold weather so it will be a brave bet to go against them on their home turf. Valencia have a decent squad but, as you mention, they have injuries and if you want to go to their place and get a result you need to be at full strength. A draw is possibly more feasible but I'd be surprised if Valencia won.

Porto are looking class this year. I can see them winning by a couple of goals. Under 2.5 goals is risky though. Their defence could be better but Dynamo Kiev have never been the best travellers. I'd say a European Handicap could be better here or even over 2.5 goals again.

BATE vs Leverkusen OVER 2.5 odds at my side is 1.77 for over and 1.87 for under. Hmm...But I still feel both should be whacking some goals in order to grab all 3 points

Zenit vs Valencia I checked on the weather conditions for today. Temperatures will be slightly below 0 degree Celsius in St Petersburg tonight.

Porto vs Dynamo Kiev Thanks for your input for this one 

 

[sandrasuzuki]

Paris Saint Germain is definitely a tough challenge that rock bottom Malmo must overcome. But doing so will give them more opportunities to feature in a bigger stage.

Snatching three points against the Parsiens will not make Malmo qualify in the Knockout Stage. However, this increases the likelihood of them to be transferred into another major tournament, which is Europa League. A draw could also book them a spot, provided that Shakhtar loses to Real Madrid. Unfortunately, the said scenario is quite impossible to happen knowing how eager the Los Blancos are in securing a silverware this season.

Malmo 0-2 Paris Saint Germain (PSG)

[sandrasuzuki]

If there is anyone that really needs the points in this match, this is Shakthar Donetsk. The latter is currently tied with Malmo in terms of the number of points accumulated. And although their chances to progress to the next stage is very slim, they’re nonetheless, interested in playing for Europa League. And just like Malmo, they need to win this one if they’re really keen on playing in one of Europe’s most awaited football tournaments.

Shakhtar Donetsk 0-4 Real Madrid

[sandrasuzuki]

Russia’s capital club has already collected four points in this tournament. Although they are at  the bottom of the group, Wolfsburg and Eindhoven have only accumulated six points. Such is fairly manageable, provided that the host secures a victory.

CSKA Moskva has already beaten Wolfsburg. But that was already seven years ago. The times have changed and with the way the Germans perform, the host will really have a hard time gaining the upper hand.

CSKA Moskva 0-2 Wolfsburg

[sandrasuzuki]

As for United, its one-point lead over Eindhoven isn’t formidable enough for them to secure automatic qualification. They need more points to monopolize the top spot because other than Eindhoven, Wolfsburg also threatens to outrank them.

Eindhoven feels a similar sentiment to that of United. They also want to dominate Group B. But right now, they don’t have sufficient points to book a ticket to the Knockout Stage.

Due to this, it’s not surprising to see a down the wire match between these squads.

Manchester United 2-1 PSV Eindhoven

[sandrasuzuki]

Provided that Porto falls into Dynamo’s hands, Chelsea still has the chance to outrank the latter in the group table.

Going against Maccabi is an ultimate give-away for the Blues. The former hasn’t won a single match since qualifying in the tournament and considering their differences in form and previous performances, it would be a shame if Jose Mourinho and his men lose this one.

Chelsea 3-0 Maccabi

[vasilli07]

Real Madrid scored a combined 17 goals in the game that followed their three previous Clasico losses.

[JuMeSyn]

When their manager was not Rafa...which is one of the most overrated managers ever. Moreover, rumours regarding the squad say that the players are not with him and trip to Ukraine is never easy. Great home factor from them.

I can easily see this turn out as a bore 0-0 or 1-1 draw.

 

[owenclass]

What were the odds on Arsenal qualifying from their group

[MPLouis]

3 hours ago, owenclass said:

What were the odds on Arsenal qualifying from their group

Before last night's game about 9/2 I think, obviously they will be shorter now

[mrclubbie]

Missed most of my picks...Sorry about that ~~~

Man Utd vs PSV I am surprised by the fact that Man Utd is giving -1.25 hdp to PSV. I mean, Man Utd really are not convincing enough in their 4 UCL matches, all ended in tight scoreline, so I am surprised by the high hdp given. My only guess is PSV poor defending in this season. Players available wise, both sides have plenty of players not available for this match. Hmm...

What do you think ?

Edited November 25, 2015 by mrclubbie

[MPLouis]

6 hours ago, mrclubbie said:

Missed most of my picks...Sorry about that ~~~

Man Utd vs PSV I am surprised by the fact that Man Utd is giving -1.25 hdp to PSV. I mean, Man Utd really are not convincing enough in their 4 UCL matches, all ended in tight scoreline, so I am surprised by the high hdp given. My only guess is PSV poor defending in this season. Players available wise, both sides have plenty of players not available for this match. Hmm...

What do you think ?

I think PSV could be a good price. The shots on target stats from the group games suggest there's not much difference between the sides.

[owenclass]

Shakter Dontesk to best Real Madrid 11/4 paddy power

I fancy them to beat a team that has problems at the moment and also going to the Ukraine can be difficult so i fancy a tight game with the home team just nicking it

Edited November 25, 2015 by owenclass

[JuMeSyn]

Astana 2 - SL Benfica 2

And Benfica were very lucky to escape with a win.

[StevieDay1983]

I hope you all got on our Champions League tips this week lads! Another clean sweep for us in what is proving to be a successful competition for our tips! We would like to thank the inconsistency and boring style of play from the British teams! Haha.

[mrclubbie]

4 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I hope you all got on our Champions League tips this week lads! Another clean sweep for us in what is proving to be a successful competition for our tips! We would like to thank the inconsistency and boring style of play from the British teams! Haha.

English teams are getting boring, less competitive and losing competitiveness perhaps

[owenclass]

It is still good odds for Arsenal to qualify

Edited November 27, 2015 by owenclass