National League ~ October 30th & 31st

[Aidymac]

Odds with Bet365

[Aidymac]

National League Ratings ~ Top Rated Woking

30/10/2015	Grimsby	42.50	55.50 - 51.50	61.50	Cheltenham	-19.00
31/10/2015	Altrincham FC	20.25	29.00 - 38.00	33.50	Torquay	-13.25
31/10/2015	Boreham Wood	27.75	37.00 - 11.00	13.00	Gateshead	+14.75
31/10/2015	Braintree Town	22.00	21.50 - 62.50	51.00	Macclesfield	-29.00
31/10/2015	Eastleigh	25.25	33.00 - 13.00	23.50	Halifax	+1.75
31/10/2015	Forest Green	33.00	33.00 - 41.50	39.50	Chester FC	-6.50
31/10/2015	Guiseley	21.00	17.50 - 14.50	20.25	Welling United	+0.75
31/10/2015	Kidderminster	15.75	21.00 - 50.00	50.25	Woking	-34.50
31/10/2015	Lincoln	51.00	44.00 - 34.00	44.50	Bromley	+6.50
31/10/2015	Southport	17.50	20.00 - 38.00	35.00	Aldershot	-17.50
31/10/2015	Tranmere	43.50	36.50 - 33.50	44.00	Dover Athletic	-0.50
31/10/2015	Wrexham	28.25	31.50 - 12.00	26.25	Barrow	+2.00

[Darran]

Cracking game on btsport on Friday night and Cheltenham have the FA cup replay on Tuesday as well. Also FA trophy gets underway and they should be priced up. 

[Modjadji]

Plenty of sub 100% books in the Trophy if you can get on, big differences between VC and B365. 

http://odds.bestbetting.com/football/england/english-fa-trophy/first-round-qualifying/aylesbury-v-brentwood-town/match-result/

 

bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">Best Price Percentage: 92.0%

This one's the best atm, will do some research for some outright picks by tomorrow. 

Edited October 28, 2015 by Modjadji
Display issue

[smokvica]

Addpea, you are an expert of this league very close to the level of expertise of Sheep was, looking knowledge the same level but looking strategy not the same. It seems to me that you very often search the high odds and of course you make mistakes because you are not "ubermensch". The different between you and sheep was not knowledge the different was the tactics he played more on favorite on odds close to 2,00 and you have different strategy more risky. I can not change your strategy that is something up to you but I am just asking: for me tonight game is at least 75% posibilities of BTS looking scoreing abilities of both teams and I am asking my selfe why you never pley such obvious picks and the odd is maybe not of the level of your expectation but that bet is very close to BANKER with odd 1,8. It seems to me you are forcing with risky bets of course sometimes and I always follow your rare picks described by you as PICK OF THE WEEK or PICK OF THE DAY. I am pretty shure you will finde every week PICK OF THE WEEK but changing strategy and playing also sometimes on goals what seems to me you do not like. Do not be angry on me I just see an expert knowledge that is squared with playing quite only on underdogs. I hope my words will produce more success considering your weekly picks. And as I follow you your success is my success.

[smokvica]

by the way, you could follow my picks on www.blogabet.hr my ID is HNL1 I have more than 500 followers, I am expert for Croatia league my pick today Dinamo (-1) 1,9 is quite banker and tommorow I also have one quite banker for odd above 2,2 as a different of you I like bankers not underdogs.

[Modjadji]

My FA Trophy nap is Chalfont to beat Waltham Abbey at 1.57 Hills, Bwin & B365. I very rarely lump on short price favourites but will make an exception here, we're the top scorers and second in our league with especially Tony Mendy banging them in for fun. Our opponents are third from bottom with two wins all season (one against a side just above them) and this looks huge value. Of course we may put in a stinker and our visitors might pull out a great performance (that's football!), but they lost 4-0 at home in midweek, and we won 4-1 (should have been 7 or 8) so it would seem unlikely. This is more of a 1.25 shot for me.

On a more general point I would oppose every team playing tomorrow in the Trophy who is still left in the FA Cup next weekend as I'm sure most if not all will be resting players for the far more important game the following week.

Good luck :-) 

Quick edit to the above, just noticed you can get 1.6 with 888 sport and Unibet if you have an account with them.

 

Edited October 30, 2015 by Modjadji
Other firms prices

[Darran]

Addpea, you are an expert of this league very close to the level of expertise of Sheep was, looking knowledge the same level but looking strategy not the same. It seems to me that you very often search the high odds and of course you make mistakes because you are not "ubermensch". The different between you and sheep was not knowledge the different was the tactics he played more on favorite on odds close to 2,00 and you have different strategy more risky. I can not change your strategy that is something up to you but I am just asking: for me tonight game is at least 75% posibilities of BTS looking scoreing abilities of both teams and I am asking my selfe why you never pley such obvious picks and the odd is maybe not of the level of your expectation but that bet is very close to BANKER with odd 1,8. It seems to me you are forcing with risky bets of course sometimes and I always follow your rare picks described by you as PICK OF THE WEEK or PICK OF THE DAY. I am pretty shure you will finde every week PICK OF THE WEEK but changing strategy and playing also sometimes on goals what seems to me you do not like. Do not be angry on me I just see an expert knowledge that is squared with playing quite only on underdogs. I hope my words will produce more success considering your weekly picks. And as I follow you your success is my success.

It all depends on what games are on and what I fancy. If a team is a short price then I have to really fancy them and think the price is wrong for me to want to back them. So there are cases where I think a team will win, but I think the price is right or too short so I don't want to have a bet. You need to be hitting a very high percentage to make it pay at those odds well. At the moment for me their tends to be a lot more value in the outsiders as sometimes they are crazy prices and yet you can make very solid reasons for why a team might win. Now obviously most will be losers, but you don't need as many to win to make a profit. I never want to force a bet and if I don't fancy anything strongly then I am not going to go looking for a short price banker just for the sake of it. It might be weeks before I fancy something strongly and then I might get a run where I do or even the odd time two crop up on the same day.

[Darran]

Will post other tips later, but I think the draw offers value tonight in the live game. Grimsby love to draw a game and although Cheltenham did have an extra game to play on Tuesday so that does give the home side an advantage, Grimsby are very short to win the game especially when you consider their poor win record against the top sides this season and Cheltenham have only lost one on the road this season.

[bromsgrovegreen]

bet victor have also priced up the fa vase games tomorrow which is brilliant and credit to them

 

there are always gems to be found at this early stage of the competition,i will hopefully post some up later

[smokvica]

fuck, I haven't seen such bad Dinamo for a long time I apologise to all followed me what a bad performance from Dinamo, they did not have 2 chances on all game I do not understand against Rijeka Dinamo was better with one player less and today ...shit tommorow Hajduk win is very good bet, Hajduk will be champion this year showing the best football.

[Darran]

Eastleigh v Halifax
Halifax may have got through to the FA Cup 1st Round after beating Guiseley in a replay after extra time on Tuesday, but they continue to struggle and conceding goals has been the massive issue. They have conceded 22 goals in their last five league games and with Eastleigh looking very strong going forward they could concede a few more on Saturday afternoon. Eastleigh should have beaten Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago and they are in cracking form at the moment. Given I think they can still win the title they have to win games like this and I will be pretty shocked if they don't. I am backing the home side on the -1 handicap at 6/4 with Paddy's and Boyelsports.

Southport v Aldershot
The home side are a poor team and as I wrote last week although they beat Kidderminster in their last league game it was a poor game between two poor sides. Salford deserved their victory over them last week and I think Aldershot are worth backing against them on Saturday. Aldershot's away form is strong and crucially they are beating the weaker sides in the league. I think they are capable of sneaking into the top half of the table this season and at just over 6/4 with Marathon they are just big enough for me to want to back them this weekend.

AFC Telford v Alfreton
The home side finally look to be improving was Rob Smith is gradually getting rid of the dead wood from the squad and bringing in his own players. They more than likely would have beaten Boston last weekend but for getting a man sent off and they host an Alfreton side who have lost their last three league games on the bounce. They have only won once away from home this season as well so at 31/20 I think the home side rate a solid bet to continue their improved form.

AFC Hornchurch v Met Police
Reports suggest the home side performed with great credit against Boreham Wood last weekend in the FA Cup and I am amazed Bet 365 have them as outsider for this game in the FA Trophy against Met Police. Their is a good chance this will be a league game next season and I think the current Hornchurch squad would be good enough to be in and around the same position the Met Police are in the Ryman Premier. Granted they had a disappointing defeat to Romford on Tuesday night, but no doubt the effects of the FA Cup game were to blame and they should be better on Saturday. Met Police themselves had a poor result only drawing 0-0 to an awful Lewes team. BetVictor have also priced this game up and have the home side at 6/4 which I think is close to the right price so at 21/10 they have to be backed with Bet 365.

Joint Naps are Eastleigh -1 and Hornchurch

[sap]

Hi all,

I noticed a big movement on odds on hornchurch.I think it will finish as a draw.For today,I fancy poole,wrexham,dover,bromley.On the upset side,harlow and belper town.

[Darran]

Farnborough have tweeted that they are missing 12 players only problem is they play Bedford who are poor and are already 5-4. Might be one to wait and see how many players they can name and maybe playing then. 

[Darran]

Hi all,

I noticed a big movement on odds on hornchurch.I think it will finish as a draw.For today,I fancy poole,wrexham,dover,bromley.On the upset side,harlow and belper town.

Dover and bromley have both got very tough games today not games to be betting on in my view. 

[Darran]

Farnborough have just the one sub so have played small on Bideford.

[Cheltenhamwhite]

Hi all,

I noticed a big movement on odds on hornchurch.I think it will finish as a draw.For today,I fancy poole,wrexham,dover,bromley.On the upset side,harlow and belper town.

Fantastic call on Bromley and Dover brilliant tipping at 11/4 and 12/5, I put £20 on a double at 11.75 to 1. Great work Sap. Thank you.

[Darran]

Yeah some great calls Sap well done.

[sap]

Thanks.I'm not an expert but i tried my best.addpea,do you think northwich can win today?

[Darran]

Depends if they have one eye on the fa cup or not. Staines, didcot and Salford all lost over the weekend already. 

Edited November 1, 2015 by addpea