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Monthly Naps Competition - Saturday 24th October


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7.40 Moonee Valley - Highland Reel @ 9/2 Bet365

Major Australian owner Lloyd Williams admitted he tried to buy Highland Reel before he bolted up in America with this race in mind and I think this horse will take all the beating. Moore heads down under just for this ride and after a comfortable Group 1 success in America before a very good 5th in a strong Irish Champion on ground too slow for him he sets a high standard. The Aussie middle distance horses are probably not up to the level of the Europeans so Ballydoyle could very well take a second Cox Plate in as many years.

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5:05 Cheltenham Sky Khan @ 20/1 Skybet  e/w thanks

Sky Khan…from Lucinda Russell yard She’s sends the 6yo all the way down from Perth to Cheltenham probably the longest distance any horse is travelling today to a racetrack, Sky Khan has won three hurdle races from 2m to 2m 5f on good to firm and good ground and last race was 31 days ago at Perth 3m good to soft when finishing 2nd beaten 3.25 lengths where he was one pace after last hurdle , Lucinda sent him down this time last year for a Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle .and also sent it down to the festival last year but missed this year festival instead kept in running at home in Scotland only visiting Market Rasen this year to win over 2m 4.5 f before giving him a summer break to reappear for that Perth run last month , So horse will have came on for that run but stable head jockey Peter Buchanan is not in saddle as yard have got Graham Watters claiming 3lbs in saddle,

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3.10 - Donny - Esteaming - 8/1 - BetFred BOG

Esteaming has been steadily dropping down the handicap since his last win back in April 2014. Has been consistently running off marks in the mid-nineties and goes off 88 here today following a close 3rd last time at Nottingham just 10 days ago. Ground at Donny is officially good to soft at present but heavy rain forecast throughout the day so could be soft by race time and 2 of Esteaming's 3 career successes have come on soft ground. Similarly, Graham Gibbons who has the ride today has been on board for 2 of those 3 wins so obviously gets on with the horse. Overall conditions seem to be in his favour and should get a good run today. Good luck all.

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305 Kelso: Gold Futures 15/8 BetVic/Bet365

Nicky Richards fancied this one for the Listed race at Market Rasen last time out and ran really well until the closing stages. This is much easier back in a Class 3 handicap and giving weight to inferior animals. 

Taking a chance on stamina here but i don't think they will go a great gallop and he won well over 3m at Bangor last season. He won that off 130 and now is on 138, i reckon he's well up to winning in this grade at the smaller tracks.

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N5.20 Flag of Glory 28/1 Coral

A race for lady amateurs in softish ground seems a good place to start when looking for a lively outider and this one fits the bill. The jockey is able to claim 5lb and has won 2 of her last 7 races so clearly looks to be a useful pilot, She has won on this horse before off marks of 55 and 57. The horse then went up the handicap but the handicapper has relented a little here and the horse races off 61.The blinkers seem to have improved the horse and they are reapplied having been left off last time out.

 

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5.35 wexford - peace n milan 20/1 paddy/sky

 

Trainer Flood has a high average for SP for his winners. Has had several 2 big odds winners this year: Miss Xian and Down Under. Peace N Milan finished 5th of 18 on hurdle debut in May, makes her debut on flat today and could be another surprise from Flood.

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2.25 Newbury: St Simon Stakes (Group 3), 1m 4f

Hard to put much face into any of the nine horses - although Romsdal, judged on his placed efforts, would be an obvious pick. But his strike rate is poor, and the fact that he only won on the Kempton All-Weather and never really excelled in similar races like this today means he is one to oppose.

Favourite filly Koora is a likeable, lightly raced sort with room for further improvement. But given what she has done so far it's impossible to see any value in her 5/2 price tag.

I like Rawaki from the older horses. He has a profile to do well here, if in the right mood. You definitely can't rule out progressive three year old filly Melodious either, though she has to prove that she can win on this level over a trip that far.

The most intriguing contender, and clearly the one with the most scope for improvement, is three times raced Moderah. She comes into this race as a relatively fresh individual, having only two starts this season. She made a big impression when getting off the mark last month in a Leicester maiden. Travelling all over her modest rivals, finding plenty when given a tiny bit of reign in the final furlong.

Obviously she has it all to prove, stepping up dramatically in trip. But with the fair chance of improvement this seemingly talented individual makes loads of appeal to me. In the context of the race I believe she is too big a price.

Moderah @ 6/1 Bet365

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Chelt 4.30 - Parlour Games - win at 7/4 bog betvictor

Novice chase around two and a half miles

Parlour Games - like the same yards Qewy yesterday I'm a bit worried about these flat bred horses going chasing though this one looks better than the one yesterday. Bit more stamina and the sire has got chase winners. He's pretty classy having won a Grade 1 over hurdles and finished 2nd in the grade one races at Cheltenham and Aintree last back end. I'll take a chance that he will jump OK and the yard is flying so he should be fit enough

I'm  taking on the much touted Long Hall House who won a couple of  races very impressively including at Cheltenham at the end of last season. But the qustion is will he return in the same form of will he have to build up to it again and this looks harder than the races he won

Nicholl's runner is a good jumper with a bit of experience now and who ran a corker on his seasonal reappearance against decent horses but I think this track might just stretch his stamina too much

 

 

 

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Replacement for NR

 

5.20 newbury - emilio largo 25/1 ladbrokes/paddy/bet365/victor

 

Emilio Largo has the second best prize money average, and the best win rate 24%. Hasn't won over longer trip, last race finished 5th over 12 furlongs with SP 14/1. Last win was 3 years ago but the prize money average suggests that they are still getting better value with him than the rest of the field. Sooner or later he will land another winner and I hope it is today.

 

 

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